20230131_东方证券_房地产行业证券研究报告：结合国际经验看公募REITs的估值和机会_33页.pdf
|REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 1 REITs 2 REITs REITs 3 2000 REITs 15-20 P/FFO REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 2022 31.2%2.4%REITs/REITs 22 30-35 REITs 2022 15.1%REITs 90%REITs REITs REITs REITs 1 REITs 2 3 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs/2023 01 31 S0860521070001 2023 3-4 2023-01-31 12 12 2023-01-20 2023 2 2023-01-17 REITs REITs 2 REITs REITs.5 REITs.5 REITs.6 REITs.7 REITs.9 REITs.11.11 REITs.12 REITs.14 REITs.16 REITs.17 REITs.17.21.23.25.27 REITs.27 REITs.27.28.30.30 YWAZzQnQsRrQqOoNsPoRoPbR9R6MsQrRtRsRkPrRmOiNnNnM7NpOnRwMmRqPxNnOoR REITs 3 1 REITs.5 2 25 REITs 24.6 3 REITs.7 4 1990-2021 REITs.8 5 1990-2021 REITs.8 6 1990-2021 REITs.8 7 1990-2021 REITs.8 8 REITs.9 9 REITs.9 10.9 11 REITs.10 12 REITs.10 13 REITs.10 14 REITs.10 15 REITs.11 16 500.11 17 REITs.11 18 225.11 19 REITs/.13 20 2021 REITs%.15 21 2021 REITs%.15 22 2021 REITs%.15 23 REITs 500.17 24 REITs.18 25 REITs.18 26 REITs.19 27 REITs.20 28 2021 11 REITs/.21 29 2021 11 REITs TTM.22 30 REITs/.22 31 REITs/.22 32 REITs.23 33 REITs 300.24 34 REITs.24 REITs 4 35 REITs REITs.24 36 REITs.24 37 REITs.26 38 REITs.26 39.26 40.27 41 REITs.28 42 5 REITs.29 1 REITs.7 2 A.12 3 REITs.13 4 REITs/.13 5 2021 REITs%.14 6 2021 REITs.16 7 2021 REITs.16 8 REITs.17 9 REITs.19 10 2021 REITs.21 11 REITs REITs.22 12 REITs.25 13 REITs.28 14 5 REITs.29 REITs 5 REITs REITs REITs REITs 2014 REITs REITs 2020 4 REITs REITs REITs 2021 6 9 REITs REITs(REITs)2022 5 REITs REITs 7 REIT 8 REITs 12 REITs 2022 25 REITs 24 6 4 5 REITs REITs 1 REITs REITs 6 2 25 REITs 24 Wind REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 2020 REITs REITs 81.61%94.79%REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 90%REITs REITs REITs 7 3 REITs Nareit 1 REITs 75%NA 75%70%95%75%90%70%80%75%85%NA 75%NA 90%75%90%NA NA NA NA NA NA 45%NA 45%28.60%90%NA 90%90%90%100%90%90%REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT REITs REITs 1960 60 2021 REITs 41 REITs Nareit REITs 1990 120 2021 865 1990 178 2021 2.5 17.3%GDP GDP 1990 28%85%41 REITs REITs Nareit 1.45 44%REITs 1.62 05010015020025019711974197719801983198619891992199519982001200420072010201320162019 REITs R 0.002000.004000.006000.008000.0010000.0012000.0014000.0019711974197719801983198619891992199519982001200420072010201320162019 REITs REITs 8 REITs 65%REITs REITs 2005 31 2021 216 9.2%25.2%2010 829 2021 2952 2021 REITs REITs 4 1990-2021 REITs 5 1990-2021 REITs Nareit Nareit 6 1990-2021 REITs 7 1990-2021 REITs Nareit Nareit REITs REITs 2021 18.2%16.4%14.6%REITs 27.4%26.9%16.6%REITs 1202422573374076718650%20%40%60%80%100%120%020040060080010001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2021%17.868.2168.7468.4657.91385.92501.0 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0500100015002000250030001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2021%98.3%90.1%77.8%63.2%41.8%39.8%31.2%0.0%9.2%19.4%20.7%25.2%0.8%8.3%17.1%18.7%28.3%21.0%24.0%0.8%1.7%5.1%8.9%10.6%18.5%19.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2021 8.9 134.5 404.4 1783.0 8.4 82.9 295.2 12.2 114.8 224.0 8.9 13.6 55.8 198.7 05001000150020001990 2000 2010 2021 REITs 9 8 REITs 9 REITs 2022 6 30 Bloomberg 2022 6 30 Bloomberg 10 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 3 10 REITs 14.6%18.2%16.4%5.3%8.0%2.5%8.4%6.3%6.7%9.5%4.0%16.1%27.4%0.4%3.4%26.9%9.2%16.6%REITs 10 11 REITs 12 REITs 2016-2018 REITs 2009-2018 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 2000 2022 10.0%500 6.5%REITs REITs 2003 8 2022 8 7.1%225 6.8%REITs 13 REITs 14 REITs 2000 1 31 100 Nareit Wind 2003 9 1 100 I Wind REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs/0%5%10%15%20%0%5%10%15%20%25%REITs%REITs%0%5%10%15%20%0%10%20%30%REITs%REITs%02004006008001,0001,2002000/12002/12004/12006/12008/12010/12012/12014/12016/12018/12020/12022/1 REITs 500 01002003004005002003/82004/82005/82006/82007/82008/82009/82010/82011/82012/82013/82014/82015/82016/82017/82018/82019/82020/82021/82022/8TSE REITs 225 REITs 11 15 REITs 16 500 Nareit Wind Wind 17 REITs 18 225 I Wind Wind REITs A 18 2021 2021 A 11%73%52%33%A A A 2021 54%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%REITs-100%-50%0%50%100%500-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2003/92004/92005/92006/92007/92008/92009/92010/92011/92012/92013/92014/92015/92016/92017/92018/92019/92020/92021/92022/9 REITs-100%-50%0%50%100%2003/82004/82005/82006/82007/82008/82009/82010/82011/82012/82013/82014/82015/82016/82017/82018/82019/82020/82021/82022/8 225 REITs 12 2021 2 A%/P/B/()600007.SH 59.0 4.2 14.40 1.68 68%54%8.57 600663.SH 50.1 4.9 10.86 1.94 94%32%5.60 600622.SH 30.4 2.5 2.92 0.62-38%25%4.74 000402.SZ 5.5 0.5 5.66 0.46-54%24%12.42 000031.SZ 0.0 0.0 3.73 0.85-15%15%4.40 A 29.0 2.4-1.11 11%23%-5.5 0.5-0.46-54%24%-0004.HK 20.3 1.7 23.95 0.45-55%30%43.35 0207.HK 0.0 0.0 0.40 0.17-83%47%1.98 0410.HK SOHO 0.0 0.0 1.72 0.20-80%90%6.96 6.8 0.6-0.27-73%46%-0012.HK 66.0 5.4 33.20 0.48-52%47%56.58 0016.HK 53.8 5.2 94.60 0.46-54%50%170.51 0083.HK 63.5 8.5 9.71 0.48-52%34%17.46 0101.HK 90.7 4.9 16.04 0.51-49%79%25.75 1972.HK 78.0 4.9 19.54 0.39-61%79%40.83 1997.HK 90.6 3.3 39.60 0.58-42%89%55.50 73.8 5.4-0.48-52%59%-1589.HK*0.0 0.0 4.30 1.05 5%92%3.35 1821.HK ESR 0.0 0.0 26.35 2.64 164%40%8.15 0.0 0.0-1.85 85%55%-UOL.SG 55.2 2.1 33.44 0.59-41%54%56.80 C09.SG 205.2 1.1 31.31 0.74-26%17%42.04 130.2 1.6-0.67-33%34%-55.2 2.1-0.59-41%54%-2021 12 31 2022 7 Wind Bloomberg REITs REITs 12 REITs 42 REITs 197 REITs 2021 REITs 44.5%4.5%REITs 226%REITs REITs 13 REITs REITs REITs 3 REITs/REITs REITs REITs-24.2%-19.1%*177.8%-47.1%-18.2%*49.5%-63.4%-19.4%*27.1%-53.6%-*254.9%-45.6%-18.9%*191%-32.0%17.5%*401.3%-49.4%*97.9%-*860.2%-*444.2%-44.5%-4.5%*226.4%*REITs 2021 12 31 REITs REITs.Wind Bloomberg REITs REITs REITs REITs 4 REITs/19 REITs/-83.5%-72.7%-54.8%-60.9%-51.6%-41.7%REITs-71.3%-45.3%-16.5%REITs-65.1%-45.8%-10.2%REITs-73.6%-30.4%-12.6%REITs-40.0%-16.3%20.4%2021 12 31 Wind Bloomberg 2021 12 31 Wind Bloomberg-100.0%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%REITs 14 REITs REITs REITs P/FFO REITs FFO REITs 2021 12 REITs 6.57%9.92%3.21%42 REITs 6.36%22.86%Elite REIT 0.96%197 REITs 3.55%REITs REITs REITs 2021 4.95%REITs 8.39%)REITs(3.88%)REITs 5.40%REITs 8.84%REITs 2.25%REITs 2.76%REITs 2.89%REITs 4.89%REITs 4.13%REITs REITs REITs/REITs REITs REITs REITs 5 2021 REITs%5.56 6.78 5.84 7.72 4.95-6.57 6.41 8.84 3.85-5.40 7.72-6.36 3.57 4.13 2.76 3.75 2.90 4.89 2.25 2.89 3.55 Wind Bloomberg REITs 15 20 2021 REITs%Wind Bloomberg 21 2021 REITs%Wind Bloomberg 22 2021 REITs%REITs 197 150 Bloomberg 2.25%4.89%2.76%2.90%4.13%3.57%3.75%2.89%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%5.56 6.78 7.72 5.84 4.95 0%5%10%15%20%25%Prime KBS IREIT EliteComREIT GBPLendlease Reit 8.84 6.41 7.72 3.85 5.40 8.66 REITs 16 REITs REITs 2021 REITs 7.71%REITs 5.75%REITs 7.40%6.15%REITs 6 2021 REITs%6.08 5.30 8.22 6.05 9.64 5.87-4.25 4.95-7.71 5.75 Wind，Bloomberg，7 2021 REITs%7.52 5.30 6.14 8.95 8.05 5.07-3.88-5.96 7.40 6.15 Wind，Bloomberg，REITs 2000 REITs 15-20 2000-2022Q3 REITs P/FFO 6.6 15.6 1.4 REITs 15-20 22 56%2008 REITs 2009 2020-2022 REITs 2021 25.8 REITs P/FFO 20-25 REITs 500 P/E REITs REITs 17 23 REITs 500 Nareit Wind REITs REITs REITs 6 REITs REITs 2021 6 REITs REITs 2022 A 24 REITs 850 10 REITs 14 REITs 6 REITs 8 7 REITs REITs 8 REITs REITs REITs/15 54.3 96.7 91.1 6.87%()810 50.0 45.6 43.6 9.91%15 10.4 22.9 21.3 7.22%24 83.9 98.3 94.0 4.41%()12 15.8 46.1 48.0 9.60%11 21.3 28.5 30.5 7.37%1416 37.9 115.4 108.8 8.17%1026 16.9 17.5 18.5 9.08%()21 8.5 9.4 13.4 7.63%()19 6.1 32.6 35.4 8.92%0510152025303540452000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 500 P/E REITs P/FFO REITs 18-11.8 53.5 58.4 4.31%-9.8 17.1 18.4 4.40%-10.0 15.7 17.6 4.00%2.5 B-18.5 33.5 34.9 4.36%-4.4 25.3 20.8 4.46%-3.9 14.7 15.0 4.04%4-11.9 30.7 28.8 4.34%-6.5 13.8 15.2 4.94%-3.2 7.3 8.2 4.65%-9.5 13.5 15.3 4.06%-11.5 14.2 14.1 4.22%-9.3 11.6 12.4 3.97%-7.6 11.5 12.6 3.95%-10.9 12.1 13.0 4.79%-8.7 11.1 12.1 4.01%=/REITs REITs REITs 24 REITs 25 REITs 2022 12 31 Wind 2022 12 31 Wind REITs REITs NAV NAV REITs REITs REITs 25 REITs 80.5%29%8%4%8%34%17%49%5%6%12%22%6%REITs 19 26 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs WACCBT 6%-7%8%108.0%68.2%9 REITs REITs REITs 8.00%8.31%9.72%-14.16%8.24%9.15%-10.37%8.31%8.50%6.95%(2022-2031)8.95%(2032-2037)REITs 7.50%-8.50%7.00%8.00%6.50%6.00%6.00%6.00%8.00%-8.5%78%-9%119%17%192%34%204%3%11%436%353%75%57%81%475%279%158%111%127%43%24%25%52%12%27%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%020406080100120140 66%6%436%173%121%27%REITs 20 8.00%6.50%6.50%6.00%6.00%6.50%6.25%REITs 招募说 明书,REITs REITs REITs 2022 25 REITs 3.9%-11.0%REIT REITs 3.9%-4.9%REITs 4.3%-11.0%REITs REITs 27 REITs 2022=2022/REIT 2022 REITs 2022=/*12 REIT 2022 11-12 6.28%REIT 2023 REITs REITs REITs REITs 2021 6 21 9 REITs 2021 116%REITs 2022 REITs 6.9%9.9%7.2%4.3%8.9%11.0%8.2%9.1%7.6%10.8%0510152025300.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%2022 REITs 21 REITs 2022Q3 68.6%100%10 2021 REITs REITs 2021.6.7-2021.12.31 2022 Q3 5.41 5.38 100.4%4.09 6.26 65.3%5.44 5.11 106.5%2.95 4.32 68.2%1.37 0.91*150.0%1.23 1.68 73.3%1.73 1.11*155.8%0.50 1.02 48.8%1.51 1.43*105.9%2.04 2.52 80.9%0.47 0.43*109.7%0.65 0.81 80.7%0.93 0.85*108.6%0.94 1.52 61.6%0.53 0.52*101.5%0.51 0.93 55.0%0.42 0.40*106.3%0.50 0.60 83.5%116.1%68.6%*2021*/365 2021.6.7-2021.12.31 Wind REITs REITs 25.2%2022 2022 2021 11 REITs 25.2%REIT/REITs 7.4%/34.1%/38.0%/27.7%REITs REITs 28 2021 11 REITs/2022 12 31 REITs2022 Wind REITs REITs 2022 2021 11 REITs 1.1-12.0/REITs 6.6%/7.9%/2.2%/2.5%REITs-5.6%17.8%10.0%28.7%39.6%41.7%34.4%19.2%28.7%36.2%26.9%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%020406080100/REITs 22 REITs REITs 29 2021 11 REITs TTM Wind 11 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 31.2%-32.0%17.5%-2.4%5.0%5.4%2.9%REITs Wind Bloomberg REITs/FFO REITs REITs P/FFO 2022 30-35 2 9 30 REITs20-25 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 30 REITs/31 REITs/2022 Wind Wind 4.512.03.38.37.52.61.92.32.93.61.10.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0%1520253035402021/6/21 2021/12/21 2022/6/21 2022/12/21 30 35 2025303540452022/1/4 2022/4/4 2022/7/4 2022/10/4 2023/1/4 REITs 23 REITs 24 REITs 2022 15.1%13.4%REITs REITs 2022 300 61.9%REITs 90.0%REITs 300 65.5%REITs REITs 2021 9 REITs REITs 2021 9 2022 2 REITs REITs REITs 300 2022 2 2022 6 REITs REITs REITs 2022 6 REITs REITs REITs REITs 32 REITs Wind-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%2022 REITs 24 33 REITs 300 2021.6.21=100 REITs Wind 34 REITs Wind REITs REITs REITs 2022/REITs 20.2%/51.4%/REITs 7.9%/31.5%/44.3%/54.0%/38.5%/16.6%REITs REITs 35 REITs REITs 36 REITs 2021.6.21=100 Wind REITs 100 Wind 60801001201401602021/6/21 2021/9/21 2021/12/21 2022/3/21 2022/6/21 2022/9/21 REITs 300-100%-50%0%50%100%2021/6/28 2021/9/28 2021/12/28 2022/3/28 2022/6/28 2022/9/28 REITs REITs 60801001201401601802021/6/21 2021/12/21 2022/6/21 60801001201401601802002021/6/21 2021/12/21 2022/6/21 REITs 25 REITs REITs REITs REITs 2022 REITs 100/REITs 239/247 80%REITs REITs 12 REITs 2021-05-31 12.4713.26 12.86 13.02 4.99 9.26 6.27 2021-05-31 8.279.51 8.89 8.72 4.86 27.16 8.21 2021-05-31 3.494.02 3.75 3.70 10.75 41.45 19.96 2021-05-31 12.5014.00 13.25 13.38 9.32 56.84 23.58 2021-05-31 3.704.26 3.98 3.89 6.69 9.96 7.67 2021-05-31 2.162.38 2.27 2.30 8.47 11.37 9.34 2021-05-31 3.564.09 3.83 3.88 3.85 8.13 4.92 2021-05-31 2.102.42 2.26 2.31 16.82 41.76 24.30 2021-05-31 2.783.20 2.99 2.99 8.85 23.49 13.24 2021-11-29 6.517.50 7.01 7.10 38.41 46.76 40.91 2021-11-29 2.853.35 3.10 3.20 54.61 50.79 53.47 2022-04-07 8.4710.07 9.27 9.40 37.17 119.50 61.86 2022-06-21 9.1310.52 9.82 9.59 31.03 40.88 33.99 2022-07-05 5.336.14 5.74 5.90 107.66 86.20 101.22 2022-08-16 2.272.61 2.44 2.48 130.21 254.35 167.45 2022-08-16 2.282.64 2.46 2.51 112.29 157.38 125.81 2022-08-16 2.442.70 2.57 2.60 106.20 144.63 117.73 2022-09-14 1.982.28 2.13 2.19 156.83 431.75 239.31 2022-09-19 3.614.34 3.98 4.12 148.03 304.20 194.88 2022-09-20 2.723.14 2.93 3.04 100.53 296.29 159.26 2022-10-28 7.068.13 7.59 7.64 116.49 119.87 117.50 2022-11-07 10.1911.72 10.95 10.88 34.02 16.80 28.85 2022-11-14 2.202.55 2.38 2.42 213.24 325.23 246.84 2022-12-12 2.532.93 2.73 2.81 151.26 271.03 187.19 2023-01-05 3.243.74 3.49 3.51 98.76 215.53 133.79=+/+Wind REITs REITs REITs/37%/30%/23%/10%67%3-5 20%5 1 REITs 26 REITs REITs 46%/31%2022 REITs 88%REITs REITs 37 REITs Wind 38 REITs 39 2022 Wind 2022 Wind REITs 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%88%12%42%8%10%5%32%3%REITs 27 REITs REITs REITs REITs 613 2022 70%2001 184 16.1%REITs REITs 2022H1 REITs 1.4 REITs REITs 24.8%0.35 REITs REITs/GDP 2021 GDP 23.3 REITs GDP 1.5%2021 GDP 114.9 REITs GDP REITs 1.7 REITs 40 2018 Wind REITs REITs 2022 5 REITs 2022 8 REITs REITs 2022 12 REITs 2022 REITs 2021 11 REITs 2021 436 127 2022 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000 REITs 28 13 REITs 12 2022 REITs 854 379 95.9%198.4%2023 REITs 13 REITs 2022.5.25 REITs REITs 2022.8.31 REITs 2022.11.15 REITs 2022.11.28 REITs REITs REITs 2022.12.8 REITs REITs 41 REITs Wind 2022 5 7 REITs REITs 9 REIT REIT REIT REIT REIT REITs REITs 5 REITs 20 90%REITs REITs REIT 01002003004005006007008009001,0002021/6/21 2021/9/21 2021/12/21 2022/3/21 2022/6/21 2022/9/21 2022/12/21 REITs 29 IRR 14 5 REITs REITs 2023 2023 PPP 10.4 17.5 6.82%6.64%1.14%IRR 2.66%IRR 17.7 53.5 3.33%3.64%3.7 17.1 2.96%3.10%14.4 25.3 3.04%3.35%16.0 14.7 2.74%3.37%REITs=/9.28 20=/IRR REITs 42 5 REITs REITs REITs 12 REITs 2022 REITs REITs 12 2 REITs REITs REITs REITs 17.553.517.125.314.710.417.73.714.416.00.010.020.030.040.050.060.0 REITs 30 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 31 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
