|2023 02 02/PPP PPP EPC PPP 2018 2015 2018 PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP 2019 EPC 21 PPP PPP PPP PPP 2015-2018 PPP PPP 1.2 PPP PPP 2018-2021 21 ROE 2018 ROE ROE PPP 2021 PPP 18 ROE%193 3.9 24771 2.9 21781 3.0%1m 6m 12m 8.5-2.0-3.5 0.1-2.2 4.6 S1090521050002 S1090521050001 S1090522090001-30-20-10010Feb/22 May/22 Sep/22 Jan/23(%)建筑钢铁 沪深300 2.5 1.5 2 PPP EPC.6 3 PPP PPP.8.10 1.10 2.11.13 1.13 2.14 3.15 1.15 2.16 ROE.18 1.18 2 ROE ROE.20.22 1 PPP.22 2 PPP.23 3.24.27.27 WUEVuNsPpMoPsMsRsPsNrQ6M8Q6MmOpPoMpMiNrRoMeRpPsQ9PpOqMxNpPmRuOoPoN 3 1.5 2 BT.5 3 PPP.6 4 BOT.6 5.6 6 2015-2022Q3.7 7 15-22Q3PPP+BT.8 8 15-22Q3PPP+BOT.8 9 SPV.10 10 PPP.10 11 8.13 12%.15 13 20%.15 14 1.16 15.17 16.17 17 2018 2021.18 18.19 19.19 20 22H1.20 21 22H1.20 22 2016-2021 ROE%.21 23 ROE.21 24 ROE.21 25 ROE.22 26 ROE.22 27.23 28 2015.23 29 2015.23 30 2018.24 4 31 2018.24 32 2021.24 33 2021.24 34 19-21.25 35 19-21.25 36 19-21.26 37 19-21.26 38 19-21.26 39 19-21.26 40 19-21.27 41 19-21.27 1.7 2 SPV.8 3 PPP.9 4.10 5 8.11 6 8.12 7 8.12 8 20 21.13 9 8.14 10 8.15 11.17 12 8.18 13 8.18 14 8.19 15 8.20 16 2019-2021.24 5 ROE ROE 1(DBB),-(Design-Bid-Build),EPC BT-2012463 2015 57 BT BT PPP 1 2 BT PPP BOT PPP PPP SPV BT BOT EPC 6 3 PPP 4 BOT PPP BT EPC EPC BT PPP EPC BT PPP BOT PPP PPP EPC BT PPP EPC PPP BT PPP BOT BT PPP EPC EPC PPP BOT BT PPP 5 2 PPP EPC EPC PPP BT 7 PPP BOT PPP SPV PPP*4 6 2015-2022Q3 2015 2022 Q3 1 EPC 17 21 2 PPP 2018 21 3 PPP 4 PPP BOT PPP 2018 2015 2018 PPP 2014 9 11(2014 43)(201460)PPP PPP PPP 1 EPC PPP+BT PPP+BOT PPP 2015 39%26%26%9%2016 47%23%24%6%2017 40%28%23%8%2018 38%28%23%10%2019 41%24%23%12%2020 40%23%24%13%2021 48%13%23%15%2022Q3 51%13%23%14%2017 11(PPP)PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP 2017 EPC 21 EPC PPP EPC 2019 EPC 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3传统施工模式（含EPC）占比 PPP 政府付费+BT项目占比PPP使用者付费+BOT占比 出表PPP 投资占比 8 7 15-22Q3PPP+BT 8 15-22Q3PPP+BOT PPP+BT 20 21 PPP+BT 18-19 PPP+BOT 20-21()3 PPP PPP PPP 1 PPP PPP 2 LP 3 PPP PPP 18 PPP SPV SPV PPP BOT 2021 A+H SPV PPP 22 22 H1 2022 SPV 496 13 PPP 1475 4.67%0.49 SPV PPP PPP PPP 2 SPV SPV 数 量（个）2018H1 2019H1 2020H1 2021H1 2022H1 147 54 58 35 37 64 68 81 109 101 47 56 105 129 100 34 43 79 91 109 33 53 80 101 130 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000中国化学 金额（亿元）中国中冶 金额（亿元）中国交建 金额（亿元）中国化学 工程业务模式占比中国中冶 工程业务模式占比 中国交建 工程业务模式占比0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0100200300400500600700800中国能建 金额（亿元）中国能建 项目占比 9 6 7 9 10 9 2 3 2 8 10 333 284 414 483 496 PPP PPP 1%SPV 2018H1 SPV PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP SPV 2018H1 2022H1 2019H1 2020H1 PPP SPV 2021 SPV 2022 SPV PPP 2018H1-2022H1 3 PPP PPP 出 表收 入占比 2018H1 2019H1 2020H1 2021H1 2022H1 合计 17.50%12.40%11.30%8.80%10.00%11.27%9.00%8.30%8.50%10.10%6.70%8.45%5.90%6.30%5.80%5.20%2.60%4.92%3.30%3.10%3.60%3.70%5.60%4.03%1.80%5.50%4.20%4.60%6.60%4.78%0.00%0.40%0.50%0.30%0.50%0.36%0.20%0.10%0.20%0.20%0.20%0.17%SPV 19H1-20H1 SPV 2021H1 2018 23 PPP PPP 20 PPP 21 PPP 21 PPP 2021/PPP SPV 2019H1 2021H1 PPP SPV PPP 20H1 21H1 22H1 PPP 6%5%3%PPP PPP 10 9 SPV 10 PPP SPV 18H1 22H1 PPP BOT PPP 18H1 SPV 22H1 SPV 29 PPP 20H1 21H1 22H1PPP 4%5%7%PPP PPP 19H1,20H1 22H1 PPP PPP PPP PPP 1(Macaulay)1938,D=i PVX D/1.2 0 4 0 0.5 2 PPP 1-3 2 3 1 020406080100120140160中国中冶 中国中铁 中国交建 中国建筑 中国铁建 中国电建 中国化学2018H1 2019H1 2020H1 2021H1 2022H10%5%10%15%20%中国中冶 中国交建 中国中铁 中国建筑 中国铁建 中国化学 中国电建2018H1 2019H1 2020H1 2021H1 2022H1 11 2 PPP PPP 8 10 8 BT 5 21 18 2 5 2 3 25-30 25 3 PPP PPP=/1.5 1 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 12 3()20 10 3 3/5 3 10=+/2 2015 2018 2015 2016 2015-2018 PPP 2021 2018 PPP PPP 5 8 2015 2018 2021 12 3.08 3.32 3.50 2.85 3.17 3.23 3.42 3.58 4.02 6.01 5.91 6.56 3.81 3.65 3.65 5.65 6.15 5.88 3.88 4.06 4.35 3.06 3.22 2.89 6 8 2015 2018 2021 4.65 4.81 5.58 4.07 4.01 4.04 4.8 4.58 5.22 5.82 6.37 7.27 4.28 4.33 4.28 5.82 5.99 6.18 5.45 4.75 5.65 6.23 5.78 5.22/1.2 2015-2018 PPP PPP 1.2 2018 2018 PPP PPP 2018-2021 PPP PPP 7 8 2015 2018 2021 1.51 1.45 1.59 1.43 1.26 1.25 1.41 1.28 1.3 0.97 1.08 1.11 1.12 1.19 1.17 1.03 0.97 1.05 1.41 1.17 1.30 2.03 1.79 1.81 2018 2018 PPP PPP 20 BOT 18 PPP 10 PPP 13 11 8 1.2 2015 PPP 2015 PPP PPP REITs 1 8 20 21 2020 2021 STEP1(1)234.21 249.15 293.17 599.46 462.75 532.14 00.40.81.21.622.4中国建筑 中国铁建 中国中铁 中国交建 中国中冶 中国电建 中国能建 中国化学2015 2018 2021 14 2020 2021 301.06 148.58 113.14 110.43 0.00 21.99(2)1170.12 1412.60 2928.97 3347.36 887.82 994.61 175.00 164.92 0.00 36.82(3)3991.80 4543.71(4)=(2)+(3)5166.43 5897.94(5)=(4)+(4)/2 5007.27 5532.19(6)5007.27 5532.19(7)=(1)/(4)4.53%4.22%(8)0.00 0.00(9)=(6)/(5)*(8)+(8)/(5)4.53%4.20%STEP2(10)816.87 840.74(11)=(10)+(10)/2 636.87 828.81+(12)42.85 35.84(14)=(12)+13/(11)6.73%4.32%15 0 0 16 0 0 STEP3(17)=(9)*(6)+(8)/(5)+(8)+(11)+(15)+(14)*(11)/(5)+(8)+(11)+(15)+(16)*(15)/(5)+(8)+(11)+(15)4.78%4.22%2 22 9 8 融资成 本 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 4.51%4.51%-4.87%4.84%-4.78%4.22%5.54%5.68%5.47%5.40%4.99%4.84%5.44%4.91%4.58%4.98%4.49%4.40%4.90%4.63%4.40%4.57%4.54%-4.46%5.32%4.78%4.71%4.72%-4.53%4.33%5.09%5.67%6.09%5.19%4.18%4.45%4.74%4.73%-4.17%4.05%4.66%5.08%3.59%4.79%5.21%4.02%19 PPP 15 PPP 10 8 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10.81%13.23%16.90%27.27%31.53%30.47%33.48%40.48%45.13%47.44%51.89%50.35%41.79%40.29%40.75%43.10%60.83%44.78%61.48%67.50%70.63%75.71%77.53%82.09%42.83%48.48%46.02%46.84%47.90%51.98%35.48%55.55%40.82%51.45%53.45%46.21%25.01%25.98%17.51%21.87%18.88%25.99%60.85%54.80%81.56%85.77%73.52%78.32%3 1 1.1.75%2.25%60%12%13 20%iFinD 2.LPR 1 3.85%5 4.65%2021 1 4.6%-5.4%(5.0%)4.35%1 1 4.35%3.85%15%5.0%4.43%00.511.522.53利率 16 14 1 3.PPP 2 2016-2021 2016-2021 16 2016 2021 2021 10 2030 17 15 16 19 19 16 21 20 11 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 42 35%42 34%45 38%22 33%54 36%97 43%13 33%41 52%51 63%14 61%13 62%11 50%1 20%5 24%8 27%4 57%10 13%28 35%1 2%5 9%5 9%9 20%8 20%10 21%9 5%32 13%17 6%34 10%12 6%18 9%8 5%12 9%6 4%12 8%6 7%16 12%2 1%3 2%6 3%16 6%25 6%19 9%3 7%1 3%0 0%4 8%5 7%4 7%50%-60%0204060801001202016 项目个数 2017 项目个数 2018 项目个数2019 项目个数 2020 项目个数 2021 项目个数0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2016 占比 2017 占比 2018 占比2019 占比 2020 占比 2021 占比 18 ROE 1 2018 2020 75%2018 2021 75%17 2018 2021=+/18 19 18 2020 2021 4%-4.5%12 8 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 20 20 80 60 100 100 100 80 80 150 330 332 463 393 119 119 319 315 467 456 445 209 145 145 160 339 340 400 40 40 40 210 260 260 260 0 100 0 30 95 95 95 0 179 159 259 205 237 237 0 0 30 30 30 30 0 13 8 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 60 75 464 555 767 740 682 0 0 0 0 25 118 116 0 0 0 0 121 253 15 60%65%70%75%80%85%中国能建 中国建筑 中国中冶 中国电建 中国中铁 中国铁建 中国交建 中国化学2018 2021 2021 真实资产负债率 19 11 136 278 328 731 799 893 10 35 35 55 80 55 55 0 82 194 227 310 307 183 0 0 5 5 104 104 104 0 0 45 45 75 75 30 14 8 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 80 95 544 615 867 840 782 80 80 150 330 357 581 509 119 119 319 315 588 709 460 220 281 423 488 1070 1139 1293 50 75 75 265 340 315 315 0 182 194 257 405 402 278 0 179 164 264 309 341 341 0 0 75 75 105 105 30 30%10%-20%2023 110 3.00 100 18 19 2021 ROE 1%81.04%79.56%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H10.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 20 20 22H1 21 22H1 22 22 24 74%-80%15 8 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 79.09%77.97%76.94%75.33%73.70%73.20%74.92%75.15%75.88%80.42%78.26%77.41%75.77%74.76%74.39%76.25%76.82%77.77%80.23%79.89%76.43%76.76%73.90%73.68%74.07%75.50%76.57%76.67%75.78%75.05%73.62%72.56%72.00%74.09%74.70%77.05%82.86%79.38%79.97%76.21%74.74%75.09%77.03%77.75%78.00%74.72%76.98%75.56%73.13%71.03%71.69%75.75%76.41%77.30%77.98%76.52%76.61%74.50%72.28%72.14%75.89%76.70%77.71%65.20%65.07%63.91%67.56%70.06%70.49%73.59%74.91%74.91%2 ROE ROE ROE ROE 8 ROE ROE 2016-2021 ROE 0200400600800100012001400股份公司永续债 子公司永续债0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%资产负债率 真实资产负债率 21 22 2016-2021 ROE%2018 ROE 18-21 ROE 17-19 ROE 0.73 2.67 ROE 1.53 0.67 18-20 ROE 2.67 1.1 ROE 1.75 0.97 2019 ROE 19 ROE 19-21 ROE 0.81 0.11 ROE 0.74%1.04 20 ROE 0.34 23 ROE 24 ROE 2017 ROE ROE 16-17 ROE 1.14 ROE 1.17 0.37 18-20 ROE 1.64 0.98 2.52 ROE-0.73-0.55-1.82 20 ROE-0.93 2016 2019 ROE 16-19 ROE 16-19 ROE ROE 0.42 0.37 1.26 2.42 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.002018 2019 2020 2021销售净利率贡献 资产周转率贡献权益乘数贡献 归母净利润占比贡献ROE（右轴）6.507.007.508.008.50-2.00-1.000.001.002.002019 2020 2021销售净利率贡献 资产周转率贡献权益乘数贡献 归母净利润占比贡献ROE（右轴）22 20 ROE-0.68%21 ROE-0.25 25 ROE 26 ROE ROE ROE ROE 1 PPP PPP PPP PPP SPV PPP SPV PPP 0.005.0010.0015.00-4.00-3.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021销售净利率贡献 资产周转率贡献权益乘数贡献 归母净利润占比贡献ROE（右轴）0.005.0010.0015.00-3.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021销售净利率贡献 资产周转率贡献权益乘数贡献 归母净利润占比贡献ROE（右轴）23 27 2 PPP 2015 PPP 2018 PPP 2021 PPP 2015 PPP PPP 2018 PPP PPP 2021 PPP PPP 18 28 2015 29 2015 2015 15 M1 M2 15.2%1.34%M1-M2 1.85%2018 PPP 1%PPP-600-400-2000200400600经营活动现金流（亿元）投资活动现金流（亿元）-600-400-2000200400600调整后的经营活动现金流(亿元)调整后的投资活动现金流（亿元）24 30 2018 31 2018 2021 PPP PPP 21 PPP 32 2021 33 2021 3 19-21 19-21 19 PPP 16 2019-2021 2019 2020 2021-600-500-400-300-200-1000100200300经营活动现金流（亿元）投资活动现金流（亿元）-600-400-2000200400调整后的经营活动现金流（亿元）调整后的投资活动现金流（亿元）-1000-800-600-400-2000200400经营活动现金流（亿元）投资活动现金流（亿元）-600-500-400-300-200-1000100200调整后的经营活动现金流（亿元）调整后的投资活动现金流（亿元）25 202.49 328.55 13.11 432.91 295.97 44.54 559.74 356.36 11.16 322.65 239.59 8.86 313.88 242.06 11.54 328.76 426.85 783.8 50.63 138.44 712 103.22 183.86 424.48 157.23 267.55 41.1 95.67 37.43 41.2 62.35 35.51 49.72 90.43 143.62 32.81 47.97 150.05 149.37 32.18 140.43 191.88 34.53 640.73 152.85 58.61 921.84 247.06 110.01 369.61 331.27 141.99 204.37 112.81 203.84 494.98 132.07 169.57 311.18 122.45 142.02 7.63 54.42 1.79 8.78 31.33 4.68 38.32 16.42 400 2021 1441.07 2020 1103.63 30.58%2021 1820 79.18%2022 1307.5 671.4 636.1 2022 522.13 483.32 1,000 4 500 2021 397 79 44 225 34 19-21 35 19-21 20 19-21 2780 3304 68%74.5%20 21 11.3%20 25.1%22.0%PPP 19-21 151 129 4%2.9%19 20 20 26.48 414.53 21 PPP BOT 01002003004005006007008009002019 2020 2021中国电建 购建资产支付现金 中国电建 投资支付的现金0501001502002502019 2020 2021中国能建 购建资产支付现金 中国能建 投资支付的现金 26 36 19-21 37 19-21 19 21 20 21 144 123 20 372 21 508 PPP 300 PPP BOT 38 19-21 39 19-21 PPP 21 PPP 01002003004005006002019 2020 2021中国建筑 购建资产支付现金 中国建筑 投资支付的现金020040060080010002019 2020 2021中国交建 购建资产支付现金 中国交建 投资支付的现金01002003004005006002019 2020 2021中国中铁 购建资产支付现金 中国中铁 投资支付的现金0501001502002503003504004502019 2020 2021中国铁建 购建资产支付现金 中国铁建 投资支付的现金 27 40 19-21 41 19-21 PPP EPC ROE ROE 1.2.3.ROE 0204060801001202019 2020 2021中国中冶 购建资产支付现金 中国中冶 投资支付的现金01020304050602019 2020 2021中国化学 购建资产支付现金 中国化学 投资支付的现金 28 13 2021 CPA 8 2021 CFA FRM 2021 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告