20230209_海通证券_房地产行业证券研究报告：从美日对比看好中国地产信用修复能力_35页.pdf-资源下载-

报告吧 > 资源分类 > PDF文档下载

阅读全文

20230209_海通证券_房地产行业证券研究报告：从美日对比看好中国地产信用修复能力_35页.pdf

资源ID：169929 资源大小：2.33MB 全文页数：35页
资源格式： PDF 下载积分：9.9金币【人民币9.9元】

快捷下载

会员登录下载

三方登录下载：

下载资源需要9.9金币【人民币9.9元】

邮箱/手机：
温馨提示：	用户名和密码都是您填写的邮箱或者手机号，方便查询和重复下载（系统自动生成）
支付说明：	本站最低充值10金币，下载本资源后余额将会存入您的账户，您可在我的个人中心查看。
支付方式：
验证码：	换一换

加入VIP,下载共享资源

友情提示

1、下载资料失败解决办法

2、PDF文件下载后，可能会被浏览器默认打开，此种情况可以点击浏览器菜单，保存网页到桌面，既可以正常下载了。

3、本站不支持迅雷下载，请使用电脑自带的IE浏览器，或者360浏览器、谷歌浏览器下载即可。

4、本站资源下载后的文档和图纸-无水印,预览文档经过压缩，下载后原文更清晰。

5、试题试卷类文档，如果标题没有明确说明有答案则都视为没有答案，请知晓。

网站客服

侵权投诉

20230209_海通证券_房地产行业证券研究报告：从美日对比看好中国地产信用修复能力_35页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2023 02 09 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo 2824.773059.903295.033530.163765.294000.412022/2 2022/5 2022/8 2022/11 Table_ReportInfo 5 2023.02.05 2 2023.02.01 4 2023.01.29 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(021)23219747 Email:S0850510120001:Tel:(021)23219436 Email:S0850511010019“”5 Table_Summary 2020 2022 18.16 2031 17.48 2041 12.17 1“”2 3 4 1-5 1“”2 2 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 2.8 2.1.8 2.2.10 3.12 3.1.12 3.2.13 3.3.15 3.3.1.15 3.3.2.15 3.3.3.16 4.19 4.1.19 4.2.20 4.3.21 4.4.22 4.4.1.22 4.4.2.23 4.4.3.24 5.29 6.30 0YAZuNqNpMoPrPtQmRoRnM7NaObRpNoOnPsRjMqQnPiNmMzQ6MmNsONZpMmNMYsRmP 3 1.5 2.6 3.7 4.8 5 08.8 6.9 7.10 8.11 9.11 10%.12 11.13 12.13 13.13 14.14 15.14 16.15 17.15 18.17 19.17 20.18 21.19 22.20 23.21 24.22 25.23 26.23 27.24 28.25 29.26 30 9 1H2022.26 31 9 1H2022.27 4 32 9 1H2022.27 33 9 1H2022.28 34 9 1H2022.28 35 9 1H2022.28 36 9 1H2022.29 37 9 1H2022.29 1.16 2.18 3-.25 5 1.subprime crisis 2006 2007 8 1 1.1 1 2 MBS 1 3 CDO CDO MBS:CDS CDO MBS CDS 6 4 CDS CDO CDS 1.2 2007 3 2010 10 2007 3 26.26/2010 10 20.42/2 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 Jan-05Jun-05Nov-05Apr-06Sep-06Feb-07Jul-07Dec-07May-08Oct-08Mar-09Aug-09Jan-10Jun-10Nov-10Apr-11Sep-11Feb-12Jul-12Dec-12May-13Oct-13Mar-14Aug-14Jan-15Jun-15Nov-15Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17Jul-17Dec-17May-18Oct-18Mar-19Aug-19Jan-20Jun-20Nov-20Apr-21Sep-21Feb-22Jul-22/Wind 2010 10 2013 2 2010 10 16 2013 2 26.51/2013 2 2013 2 2022 11 47.1/2005 3 2010 11 2007 3 2010 10 2013 2 2010 10 2013 2 7 2005 3 127/2007-2008 2010 11 20/2010 11 2010 11 2020 7 85/2022 11 46/3 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-05Jun-05Nov-05Apr-06Sep-06Feb-07Jul-07Dec-07May-08Oct-08Mar-09Aug-09Jan-10Jun-10Nov-10Apr-11Sep-11Feb-12Jul-12Dec-12May-13Oct-13Mar-14Aug-14Jan-15Jun-15Nov-15Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17Jul-17Dec-17May-18Oct-18Mar-19Aug-19Jan-20Jun-20Nov-20Apr-21Sep-21Feb-22Jul-22/Wind 2005 3 2010 11 2005 3 291.2/2007-2008 2010 11 43.9/2010 11 2021 3 2010 11 124 2021 3 298.5/2021 3 2021 3 2022 2 303.5/2022 11 216.8/2005 3 2010 11 2010 11 8 4 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Jan-05Jun-05Nov-05Apr-06Sep-06Feb-07Jul-07Dec-07May-08Oct-08Mar-09Aug-09Jan-10Jun-10Nov-10Apr-11Sep-11Feb-12Jul-12Dec-12May-13Oct-13Mar-14Aug-14Jan-15Jun-15Nov-15Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17Jul-17Dec-17May-18Oct-18Mar-19Aug-19Jan-20Jun-20Nov-20Apr-21Sep-21Feb-22Jul-22/Wind 2008 5 08 0500001000001500002000002500003000003500000 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 Wind 2.2.1 1980 90 60 90 3 1 2005 3 2010 11 2010 11 2021 3 2021 3 9 1985 9 22 2 1985 1986 1987 6 3 1989 1989 12 29 38916 1991 1990 3 1992 3 2 8 14000:1990 3 10 2.2 1991 3 2009 6 1991 3 168.3 2009 6 92.88 2022 6 121.0 30.3%7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Mar-60Aug-61Jan-63Jun-64Nov-65Apr-67Sep-68Feb-70Jul-71Dec-72May-74Oct-75Mar-77Aug-78Jan-80Jun-81Nov-82Apr-84Sep-85Feb-87Jul-88Dec-89May-91Oct-92Mar-94Aug-95Jan-97Jun-98Nov-99Apr-01Sep-02Feb-04Jul-05Dec-06May-08Oct-09Mar-11Aug-12Jan-14Jun-15Nov-16Apr-18Sep-19Feb-21 OECD Wind 2009 6 2021 2009 6 92.88 2022 6 121.0 30.3%1991 2011 1991 87.7 2011 41.8 52.31%1991 3 2009 6 2009 6 2022 6 11 8 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 Jan-84Jan-85Jan-86Jan-87Jan-88Jan-89Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21 Wind 2011 2021 2011 2021 51.94 24.2%2022 10 42.9 1991 1990 1/3 1990 2001 1.92/2008 2009 6.05/OECD 3/4 1/3 9 01020304050607080901000 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021(TSR)1991 2011 2011 2021 12 1925.T 8804.T 8830.T HEIWA REAL ESTATE 8803.T 8802.T TOC 8841.T TOKYO RAKUTENCHI 8842.T 1991 1-2022 12 186.14%34.93%18.52%3.33%0.94%0.53%225 0.28%225 10%-100-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22 225 Wind 3.3.1 2008 100%2022 6 70%1990 68.4%2016 6 59.4%2022 6 69.0%10 20%-30%2022 6 61.6%13 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Mar-80Mar-81Mar-82Mar-83Mar-84Mar-85Mar-86Mar-87Mar-88Mar-89Mar-90Mar-91Mar-92Mar-93Mar-94Mar-95Mar-96Mar-97Mar-98Mar-99Mar-00Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-13Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22%Wind 2012 75.21%2021 66.7%2009 65%2021 45%2017 73.4%2021 70.1%78.5%2021 2022 12 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020211H2022%Wind 13 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020211H2022%Wind 3.2 1991 3 1999 12 14 2007 3 2008 10 3 7000 2020 8 2022 6 14 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Mar-80Mar-81Mar-82Mar-83Mar-84Mar-85Mar-86Mar-87Mar-88Mar-89Mar-90Mar-91Mar-92Mar-93Mar-94Mar-95Mar-96Mar-97Mar-98Mar-99Mar-00Mar-01Mar-02Mar-03Mar-04Mar-05Mar-06Mar-07Mar-08Mar-09Mar-10Mar-11Mar-12Mar-13Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-19Mar-20Mar-21Mar-22 OECD/Wind 2020 12 16 18 15“”“”“”“”“”2008 10 3 7000 1999 12 2020 8 15 3.3 3.3.1 1990 8.1%1%2010 3%-4%2022 6.42%4%16 0 5 10 15 20 25 Dec-84Nov-85Oct-86Sep-87Aug-88Jul-89Jun-90May-91Apr-92Mar-93Feb-94Jan-95Dec-95Nov-96Oct-97Sep-98Aug-99Jul-00Jun-01May-02Apr-03Mar-04Feb-05Jan-06Dec-06Nov-07Oct-08Sep-09Aug-10Jul-11Jun-12May-13Apr-14Mar-15Feb-16Jan-17Dec-17Nov-18Oct-19Sep-20Aug-21Jul-22%Wind 3.3.2 2021 4.74 2021 9.99 2021 31.29 17 050000100000150000200000250000300000350000198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020 Wind 16 2022 1 2022 2021 2020 2019 1 2020“”“”1 5 4 5 2021 2 3 4“”2021 2021 4 1 2 2“”4 5 2 3 3 2021 2020 2019“”3 5 1 2021 4 2019“”2020 2021 3.3.3 5 Wind IMF 2021 2027 14.04 825 165 165/2021 9.14 0.52 2022-2041 0.52/0.25/1 2022 4.71 2041 2.22=*Wind 2021 165 165 2021 37.48/3/2 2022 1.88 2041 2.23=*17 18 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Jan-80Jan-82Jan-84Jan-86Jan-88Jan-90Jan-92Jan-94Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Jan-18Jan-20Jan-22Jan-24Jan-26IMF Wind IMF 2021 14.13 IMF 2022-2027 165 165 3 2022 0.41 2041 0.59=*1.06 1.06 0.3 4 2022 5.68 2041 1.87=*1.18 1.18 0.3 5 2022 6.30 2041 1.88=*19 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jan-49Jan-51Jan-53Jan-55Jan-57Jan-59Jan-61Jan-63Jan-65Jan-67Jan-69Jan-71Jan-73Jan-75Jan-77Jan-79Jan-81Jan-83Jan-85Jan-87Jan-89Jan-91Jan-93Jan-95Jan-97Jan-99Jan-01Jan-03Jan-05Jan-07Jan-09Jan-11Jan-13Jan-15Jan-17Jan-19Jan-21%Wind 2022 18.17 2031 13.66 2041 7.62 18 2 2021 2022E 2031E 2041E 914.25 913.16 902.64 889.84 0.52 0.39 0.25 471.19 352.03 222.46 165.00 165.00 165.00 165.00/3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 112.44 113.99 126.03 135.42 188.08 207.95 223.44-1.65-1.65-1.65-1.65-1.07-1.09-1.23-1.31%64.72 65.90 74.41 79.50 37.48 38.00 42.01 45.14-41.29-51.55-59.18 1412.60 1410.95 1396.11 1379.62 14.97 14.96 9.77 4.14 1.06 1.06 0.70 0.30%46.50 47.56 55.30 60.10 37.48 38.00 42.01 45.14 568.27 410.55 186.83 1.18 1.18 0.76 0.30 16.61 16.59 10.64 4.17 37.48 38.00 42.01 45.14 630.46 446.92 188.07 1816.72 1365.90 761.63%2.44-0.02 2.56 2.00/1.02 1.00 1.28 1.60 18.19 18.16 17.48 12.17%-0.16-1.43-5.88 Wind 2022-0.02%2021 2.44%2023-2041 3%2%2022 18.16 2031 17.48 2041 12.17 20-7-6-5-4-3-2-1010 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E 2037E 2038E 2039E 2040E 2041E%Wind 19 2041 12.17 2022 13.33 4.4.1“”2023 2020 21“”2022 13 3.3.3 1 2 1 2 20 1 2 4.2 2022 1）“”1 2 2）“”2023 1 2 1 22“”21 23“”4.3 2022 2023 2023 1 10 1 2 3 16 4 2022 5 2023 22 24“”4.4 4.4.1 2018 2022 11 28 1 2 H H 3 REITs REITs REITs REITs REITs 4 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 23 25“”4.4.2“”“”2022 7/2023 26“”24 2023 1 10 2023 27“”4.4.3 2013 10 29 25 28“”1 2+3-2012.11.8 2017.10.18 2022.10.16 2022 3 8 2022 26 29+X 9 A 2022 9 9.88 0.16%1.89 9.7%30 9 1H2022-6.2%-3.9%3.6%9.7%5.3%1.8%6.1%-9.9%-1.8%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000018000002000000 A A1H2022%Wind 27 2022 9 1.58 6.46%3528 21.7%31 9 1H2022 7.5%5.6%9.3%4.6%7.0%12.8%-8.4%1.7%21.7%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%050000100000150000200000250000300000350000400000 A A 1H2022%Wind 2022 9 538 0.66 302 1.71 32 9 1H2022-0.15-1.71 0.08 0.00-0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-1.8-1.6-1.4-1.2-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200.2050100150200250300350 A A 1H2022 Wind 2022 9 83.1%0.73 61%3.11 28 33 9 1H2022-0.82 0.09-0.59-1.36-0.14-1.12-3.11 1.77-1.30-4-3-2-101230102030405060708090100 A A 1H2022%Wind 2022 9 8702.6 1.57%A 2069.2 23.8%56.0%34 9 1H2022 23.8%-30.7%23.1%-5.1%56.0%-0.8%28.9%-45.9%-28.8%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050000100000150000200000250000 A A1H2022%Wind 2022 9 19.9%2021 4.7 26.9%3 35 9 1H2022-4.4-5.1-5.8-6.4-2.5-5.13.0-7.0-9.1-10-8-6-4-20240%5%10%15%20%25%30%A A 1H2022%Wind 29 2022 9 9.95%2021 4.04 17.3%1.5 36 9 1H2022-3.8-3.1-3.3-5.2-0.91.5-6.5-6.7-8.4-10-8-6-4-20240%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%A A 1H2022%Wind 2022 9 A 35.7%19.0%14.5%3.3%37 9 1H2022 35.719.014.511.9 11.89.67.44.13.30510152025303540 A A%Wind 5.1-5 30 6.31 Table_Analysts Table_Reports A,A,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%32 Table_PeopleInfo(021)23219403(021)23219404(021)23219658(021)23219747(0755)82780398(021)23219820(021)23219394(021)23154149(021)23219674(021)23154658(021)23219732(021)23219395(021)23219984(021)23219883(021)23212230(021)23154387(021)23154170 021-23219745(021)23212231(021)23219419(021)23219004(021)23219326(021)23219686(021)23219370(021)23219445(021)23154167(021)23219433(021)23154168(021)23219068(021)23219645(021)23219819(021)23219773 珮(021)23154121 喆(021)23154142(021)23154116 021-23219635(021)23212041(021)23154124 021-23154484(021)23219658(021)23154132(021)23219733 021-23154147(021)23219400(021)23154504(021)23219812(021)23214131(021)23219420(021)23154122 02123154123(021)23219434(021)23219387(021)23219946(021)23219953 02163411361(021)23219404(021)23154143(021)23154505(021)23219635(0755)82780398(021)23219808(010)68067998(021)23154120(010)56760096 86 10 56760096(021)23219671(010)68067998(021)23219164(021)23154017 021-23219807(021)23154145(021)23154146(021)23154398(021)23154113(021)23154141(021)23154125(021)23219415(021)23219399 021-23154126(010)58067907(021)23219104(021)23154120(021)23219774(021)23212208(021)23154392(021)23154394 02123219406(021)23219383(021)23219747(021)23219436(021)23154399(021)23154652 翀(021)23154139 02123219748(021)23154401(021)23219963(010)58067998(021)23219760(021)23212208(021)23219692(021)23219171(021)23154113(021)23154184(021)23219389 33(0755)82764281(021)23214397(021)23219431(021)23219392(021)23219392(021)23154174(021)23154174(021)23154137(0755)23617756(010)50949926(021)23154128 010-56760095(021)23219634(010)50949926 010-56760090(010)56760090(021)23154171(021)23219382(021)23219442(010)56760091(021)23219407(021)23154510(021)23219405(021)23212081(021)23154122(021)23154114 玥(021)23219814(021)23154119(021)23154659(021)23219391 劼 18515295560 18901961523 13718567611(010)58067998(021)23219402(021)23154172(021)23154171(021)23154019 晅 021-2321-4129(021)23154483(021)23154395(021)23219356(021)23154134(021)23219399(755)82900465(021)23219583 祎(021)23219768(021)23219244(021)23154382(021)23214390(0755)23607963(0755)82775962(0755)83253022(0755)83255933(0755)82775282(0755)23617160 0755-25597716(021)23219385(021)23219397(021)23219384(021)23219410(021)23154192 23214650 祎(021)23212268(021)23219373 祎(021)23219281(010)58067988 010-5806 7936(010)58067977(010)58067931 垚(010)58067851 34 689 9 021 23219000 021 23219392 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告

注意事项

本文（20230209_海通证券_房地产行业证券研究报告：从美日对比看好中国地产信用修复能力_35页.pdf）为本站会员（18709673099）主动上传，报告吧仅提供信息存储空间，仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理，对上载内容本身不做任何修改或编辑。若此文所含内容侵犯了您的版权或隐私，请立即通知报告吧（点击联系客服），我们立即给予删除！

温馨提示：如果因为网速或其他原因下载失败请重新下载，重复下载不扣分。

账号：
密码：
验证码：	换一换
当日自动登录忘记密码？