20240319_东方证券_有色、钢铁行业央国企改革专题研究：有色钢铁央国企价值有望重估_19页.pdf
|2023 12 97 12 24 3 3 SW 31 PB MRQ 1 4500(600019)(600782)(000825)(000898)(000761)(000629)(000778)(000708)(000807)(601600)/2024 03 19 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 S0860523040001 2.4.6 2.1“”“”“”.6 2.2.9 2.3.10“”.12 3.1.12 3.2“”.13 3.3.14.16.17 XVBYxOmRpMmNrPnOrMsNpO7NaO7NoMnNpNqMkPnNpMjMmOqRaQnMqNxNqQnPvPpOpR 3 1 98 2023 12.4 2 2024/3/7 31.5 3.6 4 247%.6 5%.6 6().6 7.7 8.7 9.9 10 2023Q3.9 11 2023Q3.10 12/.12 13 2023.12 14 2022 10.12 15 GWh.13 16/.13 17 2022/.13 18 2022.14 19 2023.14 20 ROE.15 21 PB MRQ.15 1 24.03.03.4 2.7 3 2022.8 4 PB MRQ 1 2024/03/01.10 4 1 24 2024 1 24 12 2023 12 97 500 12 1 98 2023 12 31 SW 24 3 3 SW 185 18 SW 46 13 31 1 24.03.03 000807.SZ 601600.SH()000878.SZ 600497.SH 000762.SZ 000657.SZ 000831.SZ 600961.SH 600581.SH 000717.SZ 600019.SH 601005.SH 1912 1297 7 76 643 320481216206jbX/RNLQIOzeh7Y6rqdE7zkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVl2faJ+4uruhOuI9wBQC/VW 5()000825.SZ()600808.SH 600782.SH 002182.SZ 688456.SH 000758.SZ()000962.SZ 600489.SH 000898.SZ 000629.SZ()000761.SZ 000969.SZ 600980.SH 000778.SZ 600392.SH 688190.SH 000708.SZ 600282.SH 000970.SZ Wind 31 2024 3 7 31 2023 18%2 2024/3/7 31 Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%6 2.1 2020 12 2021 2022 4 2021 3000 2022 1.92%2023 10.19 0.6%3 4 247%wind wind 1 21 14-15 2010 615 2022 1452 5%6()wind-5.000.005.0010.0015.000.0020,000.0040,000.0060,000.0080,000.00100,000.00120,000.0020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023:506070809010018-0318-0618-0918-1219-0319-0619-0919-1220-0320-0620-0920-1221-0321-0621-0921-1222-0322-0622-0922-1223-0323-0623-0923-12:(247):020406080100120247 02004006008001000120014001600CS 供给侧改革 7 7 8 wind wind 2 2022 12 13 2022 2)2022 9 60 7.00 2023 9 2022 9-1.02-2021 11 320 92.69 2023 6 2024 12 2020 1 150 2022 6 348.5 270 70%2018 12 102 2020 10 200 192 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%CS 0102030405060708090100CS 8 3 2022 1)():2):3):4);5)1)2)21 56 5;3);4)5);6)3 2016 9 19 2025 60%-70%10 8000 3-4 4000 6-8 2018 2018 2020 2020 2025 2023 2023 10.19 1.31 12.8%6000 2023 0.56 5.5%7531 7000 5000 3000 9 9 2.2 2023Q3 350 250 100 50 2017 10 2023Q3 wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2014-1-12014-5-12014-9-12015-1-12015-5-12015-9-12016-1-12016-5-12016-9-12017-1-12017-5-12017-9-12018-1-12018-5-12018-9-12019-1-12019-5-12019-9-12020-1-12020-5-12020-9-12021-1-12021-5-12021-9-12022-1-12022-5-12022-9-12023-1-12023-5-12023-9-1 050100150200250300350400 B 10 11 2023Q3 wind 2.3 PB MRQ 1 1(600019)(600782)(000825)(000898)(000761)(000629)(000778)(000708)4 PB MRQ 1 2024/03/01/PB(MRQ)PE(TTM)(%)225 0.44 21.72 72.72 266.30 220 0.42-11.03 41.29 41.13 112 0.42-338.67 48.03 41.65 90 0.44-17.10 58.64 49.21 258 0.52 87.34 61.56 72.63 116 0.58-8.92 48.07 27.06 217 0.63-18.75 47.22 77.54 66 0.73-8.97 57.74 10.35 393 0.75 7.34 51.79 29.62 158 0.62 11.36 49.87 86.40 1475 0.74 12.29 42.40 366.92 178 0.75-6.58 62.15 49.11 52 0.66-6.25 51.38 7.34 148 0.70-116.52 54.31 52.14 178 0.89 257.60 38.93 103.88 52 0.79-2.55 83.27 13.24 020406080100120140160 11 88 0.81-6.71 74.13 21.04 133 0.85-6.36 60.97 13.94 76 0.82-28.65 69.73 51.69 699 1.32 142.41 59.92 18.17 49 2.19-3.26 92.50 20.19 102 1.12 11.10 22.47 47.35 35 1.09 19.34 12.91 18.80 51 1.14 6.02 79.13 22.86 92 1.87 56.03 74.38 20.71 395 2.15 20.76 56.32 59.98 47 1.55 25.78 39.84 11.38 46 1.51 66.34 45.33 11.33 297 2.47 30.07 18.43 46.46 31 0.95 10.22 23.33 5.11 35 1.67 135.40 24.82 4.18 735 2.00 12.39 65.55 67.13 54 1.77 15.09 33.81 8.32 2022 6 22 2022 12 21 wind 12 3.1 2017 4500 2023 4523 4215 12/Mysteel 2023 411/252/9%6%13 2023 14 2022 10 Mysteel CRU 05001000150020002500300035004000450050002016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 9%5%3%13%3%67%193 207 207 243 255 290 337 348 384 576 0 200 400 600 800Vedanta Alcoa EGARio Tinto RUSAL 13 3.2 2021 IAI 2023 4167 59%5000 6.8%64%15 GWh IAI 12.8 5.8 2 8 16 2022 55%27%15%2 16 12.8 5.8 16/17 2022/IAI Rio Tinto CRU 22 89%45%2021 5 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0002012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2 8 16 024681012141618 12.8 5.8 02468101214 14 2022 88.6%2022 45%18 2022 3.3 2022 11 19%29.10%2018 19 2023 Wind ROE H ROE 45%89%25%44%0%20%40%60%80%100%100%72.92%29.43%99.99%29.1%13%29.95%15 23 Q1-Q3 ROE PB PB ROE 23 3 PB 20 ROE Wind 21 PB MRQ Wind-20%-10%0%10%20%30%01234562021/6 2021/12 2022/6 2022/12 2023/6 2023/12 16(600019)(600782)(000825)(000898)(000761)(000629)(000778)(000708)(000807)(601600)17 18 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
