20240318_海通证券_有色金属行业:全球铜矿龙头24年规划产量下滑供给约束持续强化_32页.pdf
SAC S0850522120002 SAC S0850520010002 2024 3 18 24 24 24 1044 0.5%24 23 38 22 1.7%2024 3 15 2163.45/25.22/-0.4%3.0%2 CPI 3.2%3.1%CPI 3.8%3.9%PPI 1.6%0.9%PPI 2%3 14 86.54 2%Pilbara 1200/3 8-3 15 8.1%4.5%1.3%0.3%SMM Pilbara 3 18 5.5%1106 1200/6%1045/15%24 12 3 8-3 15 LME 5.9%1.8%3.8%SHFE 4.5%0.5%1.4%3 15 LME 9074/2277/2566/SMM 3 4-3 8 SMM SMM 3 14 84.3 2.2 3 14 25.82 0.08 3 15 34.78/3 8-3 15-0.7%2 WUDWvMsPsRrQpRsRsPtMqRaQ9RbRtRrRpNnReRrRtQkPnMxP7NrQpPvPoOoMMYpPqQ3 Wind 2024/3/8 2024/3/15/10.30 11.13 8.1%/9.30 10.12 8.8%/9.39 9.81 4.5%LME/1.80 1.79-0.4%SHFE/13.85 14.19 2.4%/3.12 3.13 0.3%/960.00 945.00-1.6%/22.40 22.70 1.3%MB/13.65 13.63-0.2%MB/16.75 16.88 0.7%LME/8568 9074 5.9%LME/2236 2277 1.8%LME/2523 2566 1.7%LME/2100 2131 1.5%LME/2.76 2.87 3.8%SHFE/7.00 7.31 4.5%SHFE/1.92 1.93 0.5%SHFE/2.13 2.15 0.8%SHFE/1.62 1.63 0.6%SHFE/22.26 22.57 1.4%A00/1.92 1.91-0.2%/3409.00 3406.00-0.1%2024/3/8 2024/3/15/2171.20 2163.45-0.4%/24.50 25.22 3.0%COMEX/2186.20 2159.40-1.2%COMEX/24.53 25.41 3.6%/35.04 34.78-0.7%:45%-50%/3445.00 3425.00-0.6%/9.15 9.09-0.7%/0.19 0.18-6.3%/0.54 0.53-1.3%:55%/12.43 12.48 0.4%:50/9950.00 9950.00 0.0%:99.999%/7000.00 7000.00 0.0%99.6%/51.60 51.60 0.0%/2300.00 2300.00 0.0%/1.38 1.37-0.5%/2.02 1.95-3.2%:99.99%/5.45 5.45 0.0%:99.995%/1985.00 1985.00 0.0%4Fd3oGARrQ20t8/X81CdfbzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVla3cTU6WVYvwWiP9YdUGQ7 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.4 23 23 1121 2.9%24 24 1044 0.5%24 23 38 22 1.7%23 23 2023 2024 2023 24 5 Codelco El Abra Anglo American Sur 2022 2023 2024 2023 2024 Freeport 191.1 191 186 0%-3%BHP 157.4 171.7 172-191 9%6%Codelco 155.3 132.5 135.3-15%2%Glencore 105.8 101 95-101-5%-3%91 101 111 11%10%Southern Copper 89.5 91.1 93.6 2%3%Anglo American 66.4 82.6 73-79 24%-8%KGHM 73.3 71.1-3%-First Quantum 77.6 70.8 37-42-9%-44%Antofagasta 64.6 66.1 67-71 2%4%27.7 42.0 52-57 51%30%KGHM 1026 1050 1044 2%-0.5%2023 10-k 23 24 6 23 185.3 3%24 186.0 0.4%24-26 186.0 190.5 195.0 24 PT-FI 4 Manyar 1 Grasberg Mill Recovery 24 H2 2.7/2 Kucing Liar Bagdad 34.1-36.3/2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 191.1 191.0-191.1 185.3 186.0 190.5 195.0 Kucing Liar 4/25 22 10 Grasberg Mill Recovery 5.3 2.7 24 H2 Lone Star Oxide Expansion 3 2.3-Bagdad 2X Expansion 35 9.1-11.3 23 3-4 23 171.7 9%24 172-191 6%24 172-191 1 Escondida 23 2 Pampa Norte Cerro Colorado 1 25-26 Escondida 120-130 24 12 2 5 Pampa Norte Spence 25 Escondida 24 6%7 2023 2023 Pampa Norte Spence Cerro Colorado 2021 2022 2023 2024E Escondida 106.8 100.4 105.5 108-118 Pampa Norte 21.8 28.1 28.9 21-25(Spence)Copper South Australia 20.5 13.8 23.2 31-34 Antamina 14.4 15.0 13.8 12-14 Carajas 0.16 163.6 157.4 171.7 172-191 23 132.5 8.4%24 135.3 2.1%24 135.3 1 Chuquicamata 70.25 2 Teniete 57.32 3 Rajo Inca 14.96 4 Radomiro Tomic 5 Andina 16.27 24 2.1%8 Codecol22 Codecol-12%-8%-4%0%4%040801201602002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E YoY%Codelco El Abra Anglo American Sur 23 70.8 9%24 37-42 44%24 37-42 25-26 40-46 1 Cobre Panam 23 33.1 2 25-26 Kansanshi 23 2023 24 44%9 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E Cobre Panam 35.1 33.1 Sentinel 24.2 21.4 22-25 21-24 21-24 Kansanshi 14.6 13.5 13-15 17-20 18-21 3.7 2.8 2 2 1 77.6 70.8 37-42 40-46 40-46 23 91.1 2%24 93.6 3%24 93.6 23 H2 Buenavista Buenavista 24 1 5.5 Buenavista Zinc 24 Q1 2 35.5 24 3%10 Buenavista Zinc 2 4.39 24 Q1 Pilares 3.5 1.76-Los Chancas 13 26 2030 Michiquillay 22.5 25 2032 23 2021 2022 2023 2024E 56.0 55.3-39.8 34.2-95.8 89.5 91.1 93.6 22 Toquepala Cuajone 23 82.6 24%24 73-79 8%24-26 73-79 69-75 76-82 23 1 Los Bronces 24 2 El Soldado 1 Collahuasi 3 1.5 24 Q2 2.5 25-28 2 Quellaveco 27 2 Collahuasi 4th line Sakatti Los Brounces 2030 24 8%11 Los Bronces,EI Soldado,Chagres,Collahuasi Quellaveco 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 56.2 50.7 43-46 38-41 44-47 10.2 31.9 30-33 31-34 32-35 66.4 82.6 73-79 69-75 76-82 2023 Collahuasi 5th ball mill 1.5 2025-28 Collahuasi Debottleneck 2.5 2032 Collahuasi 4th line 15 2027 Quellaveco to 150ktpd 2 2033 Sakatti 10 Early 2030s Los Bronces underground 510 3641 23 23 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.12 13 Wind 2024.3.8-2024.3.15 3.8-3.15 5.08%2024.3.8-2024.3.15 2024.3.8-2024.3.15 5.08%2.03%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%A 0%2%4%6%8%0%2%4%6%8%14 Wind 2024.3.8-2024.3.15 3.8-3.15 5.08%2024.3.8-2024.3.15 2024.3.8-2024.3.15 0%4%8%12%16%20%-10%-5%0%-5%0%5%10%15%SQM Pilbara Allkem 15 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.16 Wind 3.8-3.15 8.8%/010203040506022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 61014182222/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM81148121620102030405022/08 23/02 23/08 24/02NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 1112M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/03/08 2024/03/1517 Wind/LME SHFE 3.8-3.15 8.8%MB 0102030024622/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/0102022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 90011001300150017003456722/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/1020304050203040506022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/MB/MB/13.514.014.5M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/03/08 2024/03/15 18 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.19 Wind LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%/LME SHFE 6.57.07.5M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/03/08 2024/03/15567860008000100001200022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/020406022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE SHFE COMEX 20 Wind LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%A00/LME SHFE 1.801.851.901.95M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/03/08 2024/03/151.41.82.22.6150025003500450022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/0408012016022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE COMEX 20003000400012322/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03A00/21 Wind LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%LME SHFE LME SHFE LME SHFE 1.52.53.5200030004000500022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/102030405012345622/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/1.31.41.51.61.71.8150020002500300022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/020406022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 04000800012000160002000022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 010203022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 22 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.23 Wind CPI%COMEX SHFE COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3503703904104304504704905105301500170019002100230022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03COMEX/SHFE/80901001101201600170018001900200021002200230022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/35004500550065001520253022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03COMEX/SHFE/0123456024681022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 CPI 24 Wind COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%SPDR iShares ETF%-3-2-1012322/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 10Y-2Y 10Y-3M 34566070809010022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/01002003004005006007008000123456789102004 2009 2014 2019 2024:3804304805308001000120022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03SPDR ETF iShares ETF 25 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.26 Wind 3.8-3.15 0.4%/355575951150.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.822/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/567891010002000300040005000600022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03:45%-50%/910111213148000850090009500100001050022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03:5 0/:5 5%/18002000220024002600455565758522/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 99.6%/024601234522/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 10001200140016001800200022003456722/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03:9 9.9 9%/:9 9.9 9 5%/27 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.28:2023:2023:2023 2024-3-13 2023 18626897.19 7.68%824971.19 35.98%623281.13 2.73%2024-3-14 2023 668786.44 6.66%56369.28 19.78%49340.34 27.68%2024-3-15 2023 384885.79 18.67%8671.22 66.46%12551.33 40.91%29 1.24 2.3.8-3.15 5.08%3.3.1 3.8-3.15 8.8%3.2 LME 3.8-3.15 5.9%3.3 COMEX 3.8-3.15 3.6%3.4 3.8-3.15 0.4%4.5.30 SAC S0850522120002 021-23219406 Email SAC S0850520010002 021-23154394 Email 31 021-23219383 Email 021-23185845 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%32