20230210_华创证券_机械行业证券研究报告：2023年春季投资策略_24页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 02 10 2023 2019 3 2023 2023 1 PLC PLC FA PLC PLC CODESYS 2 3 4 FA 1 2 Tesla 2014-2021 CAGR 14%021-20572562 S0360523020001%()559 0.07()45,996.72 4.93()33,548.94 4.72%1M 6M 12M 8.1%-1.9%-0.3%5.2%-1.3%10.9%2022-02-27 20210501-20210530 N 2021-05-30 20210517-20210523 2021-05-23-30%-17%-5%8%22/02 22/04 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/022022-02-092023-02-09 300 2023 2009 1210.5 PLC.5.7.8 FA.10.12.12.13 1 Tesla Bot AI.13 2.15.18.18.19.20 YWBYuNtOpMqRsMtQnQoRrQ6MaObRpNmMnPmPkPpPsQiNnMsR9PoPnNNZpOmPwMrQsR 2023 2009 1210 3 1 PLC.5 2 2022 PLC.5 3 2022 PLC.6 4 2022 PLC.6 5 CODESYS.6 6.7 7 2022.7 8 2022.7 9.7 10 2022.8 11 2016-2021.8 12 2021.8 13.9 14.9 15.9 16 2021-2025.9 17 FA.10 18.10 19 2022-2025 GW.10 20.11 21.11 22.12 23 2021.12 24 PMI.12 25 Tesla Bot.13 26 Tesla Bot.14 27 Tesla Bot AI.14 28 Tesla Bot.14 29 Tesla Bot.14 30 FSD.15 31 Autopilot Camera.15 32 CyberOne.15 33.16 2023 2009 1210 4 34 Tesla bot CyberOne.16 35 Max.17 36 Max.17 37.18 38 2008-2021 GDP.18 39.19 40.19 41 2021.20 2023 2009 1210 5 PLC PLC 2022 PLC 170 7.2%PLC 84.1 5.61%85.8 8.76%PLC PLC 2022 PLC PLC 11.9%/6.4%2022 PLC 77%75%1 PLC 2 2022 PLC MIR MIR 2020 PLC FA PLC FA PLC PA FA PLC-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY 41%10%7%5%6%12%4%3%1%11%2023 2009 1210 6 3 2022 PLC 4 2022 PLC MIR MIR EtherCAT PLC I/O PLC softPLC CODESYS PLC 5 CODESYS CODESYS 3C PLC CODESYS PLC 26%25%14%8%7%4%4%1%-2%-9%-17%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%26%26%14%7%3%4%-2%-7%-7%-15%-26%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023 2009 1210 7 2022 223 4.6%2017-2022 CAGR 9.6%2022 21.5%/3.4%/2.7%/2.6%/1.6%2022 27.2%/13.8%/18.4%/5.3%/35.0%6 7 2022 MIR MIR 8 2022 9 MIR MIR 2022-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()(%),7.7%,21.5%,8.0%,7.5%,6.1%,10.5%,1.7%,3.4%,2.6%,2.7%,2.3%,1.5%,1.3%,1.0%,1.5%,0.4%,1.4%,1.0%,1.6%,16.3%27.2%22.3%-21.9%-30.8%-18.9%-21.0%13.8%18.4%5.3%4.1%-21.2%35.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%2023 2009 1210 8 3C 10 2022 MIR GGII 2021 139 2018-2021 CAGR 26.3%3C 11 2016-2021 12 2021 GGII GGII 23.2%20.0%9.2%0.7%0.4%-0.7%-5.5%-5.6%-6.0%-6.6%-7.2%-7.3%-8.3%-11.4%-16.4%-32.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0204060801001201402016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2D 3D YOY3C,31.6%,10.2%,11.0%,8.9%,6.3%,5.8%,8.1%,18.2%2023 2009 1210 9 2D 3D GGII 2025 469 2021-2025 35.7%13 14 Wind 15 16 2021-2025 GGII 050100150200250300 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%01002003004002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2D 3D YOY 2023 2009 1210 10 FA FA Reportlinker 2024 2695 2018-2024 CAGR 9.1%17 FA FA 3C FA 18 19 2022-2025 GW GGII CPIA 上 游下 游钢材铝材其他原 材 料基 础 原 材 料铝型 材自 动 化 零 部 件直 线 运 动 零 件传 动 零 部 件铝 型 材 及 配 件气 动 元 件工 业 框 体 结 构 件机 械 加 工 件电 子 电 气 类机 械 小 零 件其 他 零 部 件一 站 式 供 应 商FA 工 厂 自 动 化 零 部 件自 动 化 设 备本 行 业组 装 设 备测 试 设 备检 测 设 备其 他 设 备终 端 需 求 行 业3C汽 车新 能 源光 伏其 他 需 求 行 业0200400600800100012001400160018002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GWh GWh 0204060801001202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023 2009 1210 11 SKU 20 21 0510152025303540452017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 2023 2009 1210 12 2021 52 348 IFR 2021 26.8 51%4.72 51.9%2020 45.2%6.7pct 22 23 2021 IFR IFR 2020 246 24 PMI Wind 0501001502002503003504002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%0510152025302010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-100-80-60-40-2002040608010040.0042.0044.0046.0048.0050.0052.0054.002016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01PMI()2023 2009 1210 13 SCARA 2022 1 Tesla Bot AI 2021 8 19 AI Optimus FSD 40 25 Tesla Bot AI Day 2023 2009 1210 14 26 Tesla Bot 27 Tesla Bot AI AI Day AI Day 2022 9 30 Tesla Bot Optimus 73 2.3 28 200 6 28 Tesla Bot 29 Tesla Bot AI Day AI Day Dojo D1 120 ExaPOD 4 1.3 5 Optimus Wi-Fi LTE/2023 2009 1210 15 30 FSD 31 Autopilot Camera Optimus Tesla AI 2 2022 8 11 CyberOne 1.77 52kg 45 85 21 0.5 5 300Nm 1.5KG CyberOne 32 CyberOne CyberOne CyberOne 8 1%2023 2009 1210 16 AI GPS 33 CyberOne Tesla Bot Tesla Bot 12 Tesla Bot CyberOne CyberOne Tesla Bot 34 Tesla bot CyberOne Tesla Bot CyberOne/172cm/57kg 177cm/52kg 8km/h 3.6km/h 40 6 6 4 21 40 300Nm,96Nm/kg 20/20kg 1.5kg 17-30 60-70 2022 8 8 Robotics X Max Jamoca Max+Max 4 2023 2009 1210 17 35 Max 36 Max Tesla bot 2023 2009 1210 18 2011 2021 966 2342 CAGR 9.3%GDP 2.5%3.7 37 NeueZurcher 2014-2021 1631 4090 CAGR 14%GDP 2.2 2013 38 2008-2021 GDP Wind-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0500100015002000250030002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E YOY GDP 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%0500100015002000250030003500400045002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GDP 2023 2009 1210 19 2013-2021 2013 42.6%2021 20.9%2021 7 2021 6 2014 3 2021 15%-20%2021 78.9%2020 1.5pct 39 40 2021 2020 2021 2021 4090 2023 2021 119.3%40.8%34.1%29.5%23.2%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021,78.9%2021,21.1%2020,77.4%2020,22.6%2023 2009 1210 20 41 2021 2020 2021 1 2 3 4 5-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%0100200300400500600700800国防相关软件及信息化环保设备卫生检疫电子电器珠宝玉石检验鉴定建设工程医学机械（包含汽车）产商品检验、验货材料测试司法鉴定特种设备动植物检疫化工防雷检测医疗器械药品能源电力（包含核电）环境监测轻工食品及食品接触材料农林业渔牧纺织服装、棉花建筑材料卫生疾控公安刑事技术机动车检验消防计量校准水质采矿、冶金2021 2023 2009 1210 21 CFA 5 7 2023 2019 2019 2022 Choice 2023 2009 1210 22 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 2023 2009 1210 23(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
