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20240225_华安证券_工程机械行业专题策略_34页.pdf

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20240225_华安证券_工程机械行业专题策略_34页.pdf

S0010522070003 2024 2 25 1 24 2 0YCXuNsPnOoPqOmPtOrOoPaQaOaQmOoOtRrNjMoOtRlOtRpQ8OnMnNNZnPrRNZoNoR 1 24 1.1 244 2 Q1 6 2.1.1 72022 TOP50 2306 420.51 1885.49 22 1073 23 40%15027.15 219.02 22 20%90%1885.49*0.9=1696.94=219.02/(219.02+1696.94)=11.43%2.1.2 8 KHL 1 2022 50 2 1 375.38 16.3%2 246.48 10.7%3 134.07 5.8%4 125.34 5.4%5 118.82 5.2%6 99.07 4.3%7 98.55 4.3%8 92.30 4.0%9 77.69 3.4%10 70.00 3.0%11 66.72 2.9%12 61.82 2.7%13 55.67 2.4%14 52.59 2.3%15 44.18 1.9%16 39.72 1.7%17 39.32 1.7%18 38.40 1.7%19 36.90 1.6%20 35.72 1.5%21 30.12 1.3%22 29.03 1.3%23 27.34 1.2%24 23.68 1.0%25 23.40 1.0%16.3%10.7%5.8%5.4%5.2%4.3%4.3%4.0%3.4%3.0%37.6%26 20.72 0.9%27 20.32 0.9%28 19.45 0.8%29 19.00 0.8%30 16.55 0.7%31 14.84 0.6%32 14.67 0.6%33 12.74 0.6%34 11.68 0.5%35 10.71 0.5%36 10.54 0.5%37 9.58 0.4%38 9.40 0.4%39 8.28 0.4%40 8.08 0.4%41 7.12 0.3%42 6.89 0.3%43 6.41 0.3%44 6.40 0.3%45 5.93 0.3%46 5.66 0.2%47 5.33 0.2%48 4.82 0.2%49 4.61 0.2%50 4.42 0.2%KHL 2.1.3 9 3 2.1.4 10 5 2022 4 2022 Wind 47.08%21.56%20.01%11.34%11.55%12.88%2.85%7.46%41.99%23.26%/Wind 2.1.5 11 25%VAT20%VAT19%7.8%+2.2%10%7.5%+IGST18%()2023 11 13(excavator)2.1.6 12 7 6 Wind 39.89%45.25%29.17%21.38%56.13%62.22%28.79%30.66%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 16.43%29.67%43.96%17.80%29.56%16.45%34.96%10.81%24.00%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Wind 2.1.7 13 Wind 21.90%29.07%25.50%32.18%25.15%33.12%25.90%35.00%24.01%31.37%24.13%26.73%26.36%21.92%31.01%24.41%21.24%19.09%21.44%18.56%19.00%16.34%19.87%17.11%18.68%16.93%17.48%16.02%22.33%19.32%23.19%22.63%27.51%19.30%37.31%31.43%38.62%35.99%30.67%39.18%39.15%44.69%38.26%44.85%34.28%42.02%-23.56%25.40%21.11%23.39%18.61%23.80%24.17%23.55%21.93%20.14%20.77%16.60%24.38%13.07%27.97%14.27%17.22%24.61%16.29%21.92%13.66%29.01%16.22%31.24%15.40%29.42%23.49%23.62%22.02%21.77%31.78%25.82%13.18%13.22%13.84%13.85%10.08%13.47%15.11%12.08%6.86%11.38%6.01%12.35%22.48%8.01%23.86%10.72%23.17%22.16%23.63%18.88%23.45%19.30%22.94%20.72%20.99%16.82%16.35%15.47%19.35%15.58%-27.53%23.80%27.30%21.05%25.38%19.93%25.29%20.63%23.53%19.90%18.69%15.62%26.39%13.33%-41.89%39.24%40.64%41.00%37.96%43.08%36.95%38.94%42.08%29.71%34.82%22.88%33.68%21.58%-2022 2023H1 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 2.1.8 14 Wind-20-100102030402022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12:9 2022-2023%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-12%Wind 10 2022-2023%Q2 202415 2.2.1 202416 24-10%-2%-10%-8%-9%-10%24 5%2.2.2 17 50%*1.05*0.9 25%*0.8 15%*1.05 10%*1 0.93 7%11 Q3 2024 18 2.3.1 19 12 工程机械主要产品保有量（万台）挖掘机（万台）推土机（7 3.5 k w（1 0 0 马力）以上）（万台）装载机（万台）平地机（万台）摊铺机（万台）压路机（万台）轮式起重机（万台）塔式起重机（万台）叉车（万台）混凝土搅拌输送车（万台）混凝土泵车（万台）混凝土泵（万台）混凝土搅拌站（万台）2022 856927 195211.2 4.14.45 97105 1.31.4 1.761.91 14.916.1 28.530.9 402.7436.2 59.464.4 5.445.91 3.653.95 6.086.672021 830899 195.7212.0 4.464.83 103.6112.3 1.381.49 1.771.91 15.116.4 28.330.6 39.642.9 360.2390.2 62.567.8 6.57.06 4.574.95 6.487.0920202019 最大 8662018 最大 8262017 690747 155.7168.6 6.67.1 149.0161.4 2.362.55 2.122.30 13.314.4 39.442.7 39.442.7 244.6265.0 37.840.9 6.26.8 6.06.6 5.996.572016 672 728 149.8 162.4 6.79 7.36 158.6 171.8 3.05 3.31 2.07 2.25 12.3 13.3 20.9 22.7 41.7 45.2 224.1 242.8 34.9 37.9 6.4 6.95 5.62 6.09 5.53 6.06 2015 663 718 149.5 162.0 7.1 7.7 167.4 181.4 3.8 4.0 2.0 2.1 11.8 12.8 21.7 23.5 42.5 46.0 208.5 225.8 32.1 34.8 6.1 6.6 5.7 6.2 5.0 5.52014 650 704 148.4 160.8 7.48 174.6189.2 3.73.9 1.92.0 11.812.8 22.224.1 41.945.4 192.5208.5 29.231.6 5.96.3 6.36.8 4.75.22013 611 662 141.9 153.8 7.6 8.2 171.6 185.9 3.5 3.7 2.0 2.2 11.8 12.8 22.7 24.5 37.2 40.3 170.8 185.1 25.8 27.4 5.3 5.7 6.8 7.4 4.3 4.7 2.3.2 24 20 2022 1 2 13 HC 14 NOx 15 PM 2023 2023 2023 2.3.3 21 2007 10 1 2008 10 1 2009 10 1 2010 10 1 2015 10 1 2016 4 1 2022 12 1 16 17 2001.9.1 2005.9.1 2008.7.1 2013.7.2 2017.7.1 2020.7.1 Q422 2.4 23 36 1 2 591825401002500.30%0.60%1%1.50%3%4%6%15%30%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002503002020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2030E 2035E纯电动工程机械纯电动工程机械市场份额（%）生产制造产品销售售后服务传统价值链传统零部件供主机厂经销商租赁公司经销商、小型配件店和保险电动化催生新玩家与新模式电池供应商其他电子电气部件供应商主机厂专注于车辆设计和集成对部分电子电气部件和集成环节进行创新销售和租赁渠道经销商租赁公司直销销售和租赁模式纯工程机械工程机械+电池纯电池服务提供商类型经销商小型配件店保险公司电池服务商-包括电池维护、更换、配送等12 3新玩家纷纷入局；传统主机厂则寻求转型销售渠道重心由经销商向租赁形式转移新的业务模式亟待探索，如：车电分离等 18 19 20 XC968-EV XGA5900BEVT 4.5 8 XCR40_EV G4804BIIVE XPT70E XGA5900HEVT 6*4 XCT25PHEV XCS4531E XDR80TE 8*4 QY25K5D 3 XCH908E EV550 410 SRSC45E 416 410 SDCE90K7 420 STC250E5-1 412 SMHC50V-D 426 STC550T5I-8 SY9020C10EV SM4250T0BEV ZTC250N-EV 409 ZS0407E-Li FB50S ZRT400-EV ZLI5460THBLBEV ZA20JE DB12-20R ZAT2200VE863 ZLJ5550THBKF70X-6RZ ZT40JE-V TB20E 939FE TM410F-CPD、CLG 973FMH 8018132E-CLG LG866H-E-CPD50NL BRT958EV BRT966EV BRT105E BRT105E-6*4-EM200 EM165H-XC975-PHEV SY19E SY215E SW956E SW966E STC250BEV-870HE-MAX DW90A-EV-ZT118HEV ZE75GE-SKT90E XE215E-XCF1612E HBC10022VE BCG Q524 2.5.1 25 21 2023/2/23 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E000157.SZ 7.97 0.27 0.41 0.55 0.70 29.99 19.38 14.59 11.43 600761.SH 20.55 1.22 1.73 2.08 2.45 16.82 11.85 9.86 8.38-000528.SZ 7.71 0.31 0.48 0.67 0.91 25.10 16.16 11.54 8.47 002097.SZ 5.91-1.06-5.58-601100.SH 52.96 1.75 1.89 2.25 2.74 30.31 27.97 23.51 19.30-603298.SH 26.83 1.06 1.76 2.04 2.36 25.41 15.26 13.16 11.39 600031.SH 13.95 0.50 0.66 0.90 1.16 27.70 21.25 15.48 12.00-000680.SZ 6.34 0.42 0.49 0.53 0.60 15.06 12.94 11.96 10.57 603638.SH 15.77 0.30 0.37 0.46 0.56 53.03 42.62 34.28 28.00-000425.SZ 5.97 0.36 0.52 0.66 0.83 16.38 11.58 9.09 7.17-603338.SH 57.23 2.48 3.43 4.03 4.75 23.05 16.70 14.21 12.06 2.5.2 26 22 Wind 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 000157.SZ-122.50%117.03%92.34%-60.96%44.29%114.54%2016 000425.SZ 50.40%27.46%22.98%12.98%21.01%-104.22%603298.SH 46.11%39.12%33.97%33.60%41.36%38.15%37.89%601100.SH 59.10%36.29%31.63%40.83%34.75%35.38%35.48%603638.SH 66.50%31.50%23.14%20.52%20.97%21.50%33.70%600761.SH 46.77%90.73%44.46%39.77%35.39%40.87%32.75%000528.SZ 228.43%52.27%27.98%21.76%31.03%31.43%32.56%600031.SH 37.64%66.80%35.40%31.48%32.77%31.58%31.64%603338.SH 16.74%24.99%18.04%17.49%19.01%19.46%20.14%000680.SZ-30.84%-17.92%18.06%002097.SZ 112.87%32.54%25.35%21.63%19.25%-2.5.3 270.010.020.030.040.050.060.0 600031.SH 000425.SZ 000528.SZ 000157.SZ01020304050607080901002017-10-01 2018-10-01 2019-10-01 2020-10-01 2021-10-01 2022-10-01 2023-10-01 601100.SH020406080100120140160 000680.SZ 23 24 25 Wind Wind Wind 2.5.3 28 26 051015202530 600031.SH 601100.SH 000425.SZ 000528.SZ 000680.SZ 000157.SZ012345678 600031.SH 000425.SZ 000528.SZ 000680.SZ 000157.SZ 27 2 Wind Wind Q629 302.6.1-26.25%-2.29%15.70%-2.97%-4.75%-0.25%2.38%3.79%3.60%3.74%6.82%-1.59%2.10%2.18%-4.24%-3.61%-6.33%-9.40%3.63%-0.52%3.45%-2.43%-4.89%3.33%3.13%11.64%0.08%-6.53%-6.32%9.64%4.42%-3.51%-2.36%2.78%0.00%4.46%3.68%-0.11%-1.81%-2.56%-1.57%6.19%5.08%-7.44%-5.10%-0.04%4.89%4.53%-0.25%-5.54%-3.85%4.24%-1.72%4.60%3.02%-2.92%-1.62%-12.55%3.08%-0.35%2.70%-1.62%-7.02%7.29%0.47%11.94%1.67%3.57%-2.77%-3.64%-2.38%2.09%5.53%16.00%15.38%-0.17%-1.76%6.98%6.88%-6.87%5.20%-1.30%3.93%14.58%4.41%-3.42%5.59%3.52%3.24%3.84%5.34%-2.51%2.30%1.13%5.29%4.37%-4.85%4.77%-3.18%12.75%-0.24%4.67%15.81%3.60%3.71%0.75%13.81%9.94%-9.38%3.88%2.35%6.17%-4.57%-3.15%2.03%-1.30%7.03%-2.78%8.39%2.16%13.40%8.12%-9.79%-7.38%-4.10%-4.81%-10.79%8.66%-0.32%-7.15%1.22%2.19%10.84%6.29%-8.53%-9.97%-9.99%-10.24%-13.00%-2.62%5.19%-6.83%-11.66%1.21%-8.26%-2.91%-10.42%-8.22%7.38%9.14%-3.29%-7.31%-9.55%3.91%13.24%-3.54%2.67%-5.71%-0.02%4.60%-5.35%-2.90%-11.59%-2.00%-1.50%-4.39%8.06%1.21%11.01%11.62%-4.48%0.72%-7.67%10.75%5.22%-10.11%3.43%-6.64%-2.52%1.86%1.11%8.19%-2.86%1.72%-8.80%3.46%7.13%-5.60%3.05%-1.48%-8.20%1.76%-0.61%8.11%15.21%5.74%28 Wind Q731 2.7.1 2010-202432 29 2010-2024 33 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%

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