20240224_华创证券_折叠屏手机行业深度研究报告：折叠屏引领手机创新带动柔性OLED、柔性盖板和铰链产业升级_33页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 02 24 OLED 2019 OLED DISCIEN OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED UTG CPI CPI 2020 Galaxy Z Flip UTG UTG UTG MIM 3D MIM 3D 3D+0755-82755859 S0360517100004 S0360521120002 S0360523080005%()96 0.01()11,945.22 1.40()10,178.46 1.53%1M 6M 12M-1.4%-3.9%-12.5%-9.4%1.7%2.4%XR 2023-12-29 AI PC AI PC AI PC 2023-12-06 2022-06-08-25%-14%-4%7%23/02 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/12 24/022023-02-232024-02-23 300 2009 1210 OLED OLED OLED DISCIEN OLED OLED OLED OLED UTG CPI 2020 Galaxy Z Flip UTG UTG MIM 3D MIM 3D 3D+XVAZuNnQtQmNpRpMmRpQmN8O9RbRmOmMsQsOeRpPsQkPtRrPaQqQxPwMmPtNvPmOnM 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.8+.10 1.10 2.12 3.12.13 OLED.13 UTG.17 MIM 3D.19 1.19 2 MIM.20 3 3D.22.25 1.25 2.25 3.26 4.26 5.27 6.27 7.27 8.28 9.28 10.28 11.29 12.29 13.29 14.30.30 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.7 6/.8 7/.8 8.8 9.8 10 2019-2023.9 11 64%.9 12 89%.9 13/.10 14/.10 15 2023Q3.10 16 2023Q3.10 17 TOP5.11 18.11 19/mm.11 20/g.11 21.12 22.12 23.12 24.13 25.13 26.13 27.14 28 TFT-LCD AMOLED.14 29 OLED.15 30 OLED.15 31 OLED.15 32 OLED/.15 33 OLED.16 2009 1210 5 34 OLED.16 35 OLED.16 36 OLED.17 37 CPI UTG.17 38 CPI UTG.18 39 UTG.18 40.18 41.19 42.19 43 Mate X2 Z Fold2.19 44 Galaxy Z Flip5/Fold5 U.19 45.20 46 MIM.20 47 MIM.21 48 MIM.21 49 MIM.21 50 MIM.22 51 MIM 2020.22 52.22 53 Magic V2 3D.23 54 3D.24 55 3D.24 56 3D.24 57 3D.25 58 3D 2021.25 2009 1210 6 1 2 2009 1210 7 3 IDC 2023 3.26 YoY+8.56%QoQ+7.66%2021 2023 0.74 YoY+1.51%QoQ+10.37%Canalys 2024 11.74 2023 11.29 2024 4.02%4 5 IDC IDC Canalys 2023 3500 12.3%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502014Q42015Q22015Q42016Q22016Q42017Q22017Q42018Q22018Q42019Q22019Q42020Q22020Q42021Q22021Q42022Q22022Q42023Q22023Q4 YoY%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.602014Q42015Q22015Q42016Q22016Q42017Q22017Q42018Q22018Q42019Q22019Q42020Q22020Q42021Q22021Q42022Q22022Q42023Q2 YoY%2009 1210 8 33%2023 4.7%30%6/7/Canalys Canalys 2007 8 9 2023 2023 N=2000 2023.9 iClick 2019 20%23%28%33%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020Q3 2021Q3 2022Q3 2023Q3350022%22%25%27%31%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q15000%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%外观设计过于普通屏幕尺寸不够大手机体积过大，不方便携带屏幕画质不清晰拍照效果差手机运行不流畅 2009 1210 9 2023 OPPO Find N3 N3 Flip Find N3 Find F3 Flip N3 Flip 6799 N3 9999 10 2019-2023 2023 60%Counterpoint Research2023Q3 400 64%20%44%89%11 64%12 89%Counterpoint Counterpoint Counterpoint 2022 0.13 2027 1.02 2022-2027 CAGR 50.6%2022 0.034 2025 0.17 2022-2025CAGR 71%44%20%36%45%44%11%2009 1210 10 13/14/Counterpoint Counterpoint Counterpoint 2023 106%34%Magic V2 13%Huawei Mate X3,Huawei Pocket S,Huawei Mate X5,Xiaomi Mix Fold 3.15 2023Q3 16 2023Q3 Counterpoint Counterpoint+1 39.1%42.8%230g 52.7%10.0mm 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0204060801001202021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E YoY%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0246810121416182019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY%34%21%16%11%9%8%1%OPPO VIVO 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Xiaomi Mix Fold 3Huawei Mate X5Huawei Pocket SHuawei Mate X3荣耀Magic V2 2009 1210 11 17 TOP5 18 2023 N=2000 2023.9 iClick 2023 N=2000 2023.9 iClick 2021 15.1mm 2023 11.1mm 26.49%2021 289.2g 252.4g 12.72%19/mm 20/g 2023 2023 Magic VS2 229 5.1mm 10.7mm Pro Max Magic VS2 iPhone14 Pro Max 11g 2.85mm iPhone15 Pro Max 8g 2.45mm 24.30%30%38.50%38.80%39.10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02468101214161820 2021 2022 2023Q3050100150200250300350 2021 2022 2023Q3 2009 1210 12 21/mm/mm/g/Mate X3 2023.3.23 5.3 11.08 239 12999 Mate X5 2023.9.14 5.3 11.08 243 13999 Magic V2 2023.7.12 4.8 10.1 237 8999 Magic VS2 2023.10.12 5.1 10.7 229 6999 Galaxy Z Fold5 2023.7.26 6.1 13.4 253 12999 MIX Fold3 2023.8.14 5.26 10.86 255 8999 OPPO Find N3 2023.10.19 5.8 11.7 239 9999 VIVO X Fold2 2023.4.20 5.95 12.9 278.5 7499 iPhone14 Pro Max 2022.9.8 7.85-240 8999 iPhone15 2023.9.22 7.8-171 5999 iPhone15 Plus 2023.9.22 7.8-201 6999 iPhone15 Pro 2023.9.22 8.25-187 7999 iPhone15 Pro Max 2023.9.22 8.25-221 9999 2 2021 2021-2023Q3 30%2023 1000 92.8%54.6%38.2pct 22 23 2023 IDC 3 60008000100001200014000160002021 2022 2023Q3 0.00%2.90%17.50%14.50%14.30%7.20%9.50%22.90%20.40%30.70%92.80%87.60%59.50%65.10%54.60%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2400-600 600-800 800-1000 1000 2009 1210 13 24 2023 3 23 25 26 OLED TFT-LCD OLED TFT-LCD OLED OLED OLED 2009 1210 14 27 OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED Flexible OLED FOLED ITO AMOLED OLED 20 CRT 1968 LCD OLED LCD OLED/28 TFT-LCD AMOLED TFT-LCD AMOLED/10ms 1ms(85 10:1)(85 1,000:1)(NTSC)(85%)(105%)(1,000:1)(1,000,000:1)2009 1210 15 OLED OLED OLED 2022 OLED 393 YoY+6.2%2017-2022 CAGR 9.04%OLED 2022 OLED 21.8 YoY+60.29%2017-2022 CAGR 105.15%29 OLED 30 OLED 2023 OLED 2023 OLED OLED OLED 2020 iPhone 12 OLED OLED OLED Stone Partner 2023 LGD+OLED 5980 7020 14.81%OLED 48.10%30.77%31 OLED 32 OLED/Trendforce Stone Partners OLEDindustry Displaytimes OLED FOLED DISCIEN 2017 2022 OLED 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0501001502002503003504004502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E YoY%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0510152025302017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E YoY%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E020406080100120140 LGD 2009 1210 16 33 OLED K/M BOE B7 G6 45 2017Q3 BOE B11 G6 45 2019Q1 BOE B12 G6 45 2020Q4 VSN G6 15 2019Q1 VSN G6 30 2020 CSOT G6 45 2020Q1 TM17 G6 30 2018Q3 TM18 G6 45 2022Q3 EDO G6 7.5 2023 SDC A2 G5.5 35 2011 SDC A3 G6 135 2016 SDC A4 G6 30 2019Q1 LGD E6 G6 45 2017Q3 LGD E5 G6 15 2018Q1 DISCIEN OLED DISCIEN 2020 FOLED 4400 2023 FOLED 2.29 2020-2023 CAGR 73.3%2018 FOLED 2%2023 FOLED 44%34 OLED 35 OLED DISCIEN DISCIEN OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED 0 2%10%17%28%31%44%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002502020 2021 2022 2023EFOLED YoY%2009 1210 17 36 OLED UTG CPI UTG OLED CPI CPI 2020 Galaxy Z Flip UTG CPI 37 CPI UTG Trendforce UTG CPI CPI CPI UTG 2009 1210 18 UTG UTG 38 CPI UTG CPI UTG 5080 m 3550m 89%90%91.5%92%13mm 13mm 300C 600C/100 150 Kolon SKC GFK UTG 2023 UTG CPI UTG CINNO Research 2022 UTG 110 2025 500 2022 2025 CAGR 65%GFK 2020 CPI UTG 6 UTG 2023 UTG CPI 39 UTG 40 CINNO Research GFK UTG UTG SCHOTT 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01234562020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY%87%61%55%45%25%13%39%45%55%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2025ECPI UTG 2009 1210 19 UTG 41 42 MIM 3D 1 U U U 2021 Mate X2 Galaxy Z Flip5/Fold5 43 Mate X2 Z Fold2 44 Galaxy Z Flip5/Fold5 U Mate X2 2009 1210 20 OPPO Find N3 OPPO 28 7%45 Mate X5+Magic VS2+OPPO Find N3+VIVO X Fold2+MIX Fold3+2023 2 MIM MIM Metal Injection Molding MIM(MIM)46 MIM MIM MIM CNC MIM MIM 2009 1210 21 47 MIM 48 MIM 49 MIM 1 MIM MIM 2 MIM 98%3 MIM+/-0.3%4 MIM 5 MIM(Ra)1 m 6 MIM 7 MIM 100%8 MIM MIM MIM 50%MIM MIM MIM 2012 MIM 2011 10 2022 86 2011-2022 CAGR 21.61%MIM 50%2009 1210 22 50 MIM 51 MIM 2020 2020 3 3D 4.5g/cm3 60%(/)2019 Apple Watch S5 Apple Watch Ultra iPhone 15 Pro 52 g/cm3 Mpa b/104MPa BHN 2.7 110 270 57 7.15 75 120 660 6.7 280 440 52 7.05 65 140 385 1.8 250 343 191 4.41 60 75 650 4.5 580 1646 366 11.76 270 310 1668 2023 7 12 Magic V2 Magic V2 3D 27%150%Magic V2 10.1mm 4.8mm 237g 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0102030405060708090100 YoY%56.30%11.70%8.30%6.90%4.50%3.50%8.80%2009 1210 23 53 Magic V2 3D Magic V2 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D;2009 1210 24 54 3D 3D SLM LSF 95%0.1mm 0.1-1 0 m Ra2 m-Ra10 m Ra0.1 m 3D Wohler Associates 2022 3D 180 YoY+18.08%2017-2022 CAGR 17.33%2022 3D 330 YoY+25.95%2017-2022 CAGR 28.01%55 3D 56 3D Wohler Associates 3D 3D 3D 3D 11.8%3D 3D 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0204060801001201401601802002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E YoY%2009 1210 25 57 3D 58 3D 2021 Wohlers Report 1 P&S SMC MIM P&S SMC MIM MIM 23H1 MIM 3.82 YoY-34.01%MIM MIM 71.06%MIM MIM+MIM+2 MIM MIM MIM CNC EMS 16.80%15.60%14.60%11.80%11.10%7%6%4.50%12.60%/2009 1210 26 MIM MIM MIM CNC MIM 3D 3 1+4+N+1+4+N+1 4 MLED N OLED LCD(85)OLED AMOLED 2023H1 5 80%23H1 MLED 23H1 58.5 63%2.6 97%4 AMOLED OLED Micro LED AMOLED AMOLED Micro LED AMOLED LTPS VM7 RGB 2009 1210 27 AMOLED 5 AR/VR OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED 6 LCD FD FHD TDDI TDDI TDDI AMOLED AMOLED AMOLED IC AMOLED 7 OLED 0 1 OLED OLED OLED OLED OLED 0 1 OLED Red Prime Green Host Red Host Green Prime Blue Host 2009 1210 28 8 OLED OLED OLED PDL()PDL OLED TCL OLED()PDL 9 UTG Sharp LGD BOE A NB PAD A UTG UTG UTG UTG 2-20 30-100 m 2023 4 20 UTG vivo x flip UTG OPPO 10(UTG)ITO 30 UTG UTG 30(UTG)2009 1210 29 2022 UTG Mini-Led 11 MIM MIM MIM MIM CNC MIM 2022 2023 MIM 1.20 19.83%MIM 23H1 MIM 12 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D 3D Wohlers Associates:80 13 3D 3D SLM SLS 3D 20 40 800 3D 400 400mm 100 2009 1210 30 30 14 3C AT 3C 1 2 3 2009 1210 31 2019 2016 2017 2019 3 2020 1 2022 2022 2021 2021 2023 2023 2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 33 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
