Table_MainInfo Table_Title 2024.02.21()()()021-38677369 021-38032022 021-38031035 S0880517090003 S0880522080005 S0880123070130 Table_Summary 0883.HK 600938.SH 601857.SH 0857.HK 600028.SH PV-10 EV/EBITDA EV/BOE/D EV/2P P/CF EV/DACF 50%()+50%23 10 EPS PB 22 7-23 3 PB 10 ROE W ACC Table_Invest Table_subIndustry Table_DocReport 2024.01.25 2023.10.26 2023.10.15 2023.09.22 2023.08.07 Table_industryInf o 2 of 28 1.3 2.4 2.1.4 3.2023.5 3.1.5 3.2.6 3.3.8 4.9 4.1.PV-10.9 4.2.IOC NOC.13 5.16 5.1.16 5.2.TSR 50%.18 6.21 6.1.EPS.21 6.2.24 6.3.2023 Q4.25 7.26 0YFUwPrMmPmNoQmPsPsNmN7NdNbRmOpPoMqMjMrRtRjMtRmN6MnMnOwMrMpQuOnRpQ 3 of 28 1.0883.HK 600938.SH 601857.SH(0857.HK)(600028.SH)1 X 2024-2-20 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 0883.HK 15.58 2.76 2.73 2.71 5.20 5.25 5.29 600938.SH 24.48 2.76 2.73 2.71 8.87 8.97 9.03 601857.SH 8.64 0.97 0.93 0.93 8.91 9.29 9.29 0857.HK 5.90 0.97 0.93 0.93 5.60 5.84 5.84 600028.SH 6.25 0.62 0.65 0.70 10.08 9.62 8.93 Wind PV-10 PE PB EV/EBITDA EV/BOE/D P/CF EV/DACF 1 Wind Bloomberg 2024 2 19 2 代码 名称2 0 2 1 年 以 来 股价涨幅P/E2023P/E 2024EV/EBITDA2023EV/EBITDA2024PB ROECOP US Equity 康菲石油 217.79%13.00 12.51 5.65 5.60 2.71 22.62%OXY US Equity 西方石油 257.25%16.63 15.70 5.85 5.46 2.62 23.47%DVN US Equity 戴文能源 239.30%7.64 7.95 4.42 4.50 2.49 34.18%PXD US Equity 先锋能源 148.70%11.08 10.90 6.13 5.95 2.40 22.84%EOG US Equity EOG 资源 174.35%9.54 9.53 5.21 5.10 2.67 27.44%883 HK Equity 中国海洋石油 195.56%5.01 4.82 2.28 2.41 1.07 21.65%600938.SH 中国海油-8.12 9.01 2.54 2.68 1.96 21.65%纯油气标的平均 205.49%10.15 10.06 4.58 4.53 2.27 25.37%XOM US Equity 埃克森美孚 189.87%11.18 11.44 5.95 5.65 2.11 22.11%CVX US Equity 雪佛龙 109.75%11.77 11.86 5.86 5.62 1.80 16.28%TTE FP Equity 道达尔集团 79.73%6.57 6.99 3.73 4.12 1.39 23.71%BP/LN Equity BP公 司 86.67%7.44 7.11 3.36 3.45 1.44 40.93%SHEL LN Equity 壳牌 76.44%15.67 15.57 3.56 3.77 1.08 14.77%ENI IM Equity 埃尼 72.98%11.15 12.12 2.93 3.08 0.93 15.48%EQNR NO Equity 挪威石油 84.46%6.64 6.87 1.60 1.69 1.50 35.55%386 HK Equity 中国石油化工 67.10%6.65 6.30 5.07 5.17 0.58 6.58%600028.SH 中国石化 95.14%11.46 10.31 5.34 5.45 0.96 6.58%601857.SH 中国石油 142.24%10.55 9.21 3.20 3.48 1.16 15.03%综合性油公司平均 100.44%9.91 9.78 4.06 4.15 1.29 21.16%纯油气标的综合性油公司 4 of 28 Bloomberg 2023Q3 2.2.1.E&P()(proved reserve)(unproved reserve)probable reserve(possible reserve)90%2P 50%50%3P 10%90%DCF(10%-25%)SEC PV-10 EBITDA EBITDAX(Earnings Before Interest,Tax,Depreciation,Amortization and Exploration),EV/EV/EV/EBITDAX DCF EV/EBITDA 代码 名称 EV/EBITDA EV/BOE/D P/CF EV/DACF 企业价值/PV-10COP US Equity 康菲石油 4.98 89.14 6.11 6.17 1.60OXY US Equity 西方石油 5.03 73.52 4.01 5.42 1.53DVN US Equity 戴文能源 3.94 60.57 4.35 4.73 1.25PXD US Equity 先锋能源 5.36 97.43 6.11 6.52 1.59EOG US Equity EOG 资源 4.55 83.72 5.58 5.48 1.04ARAMCO AB Equity 7.32 157.63 11.99 13.54 1.14883 HK Equity 中国海洋石油 2.46 42.04 1.71 1.59 0.62600938.SH 中国海油 2.46 42.04 2.90 1.59 0.62纯油气标的平均 4.51 80.76 5.35 5.63 1.17XOM US Equity 埃克森美孚 5.62 121.40 6.68 6.33 1.91CVX US Equity 雪佛龙 6.13 104.34 7.43 6.96 1.53TTE FP Equity 道达尔集团 3.35 67.74 4.42 4.95 1.46BP/LN Equity BP 公司 2.99 70.32 3.35 3.68 1.51SHEL LN Equity 壳牌 3.35 91.21 4.52 4.64 2.15ENI IM Equity 埃尼 3.26 44.21 3.00 4.24 0.82EQNR NO Equity 挪威石油 1.04 42.02 3.79 3.41-386 HK Equity 中国石油化工 5.10 111.32 3.01 4.24 2.66600028.SH 中国石化 5.10 111.32 4.60 4.24 2.66601857.SH 中国石油 3.39 50.55 3.42 3.31 0.95综合性油公司平均 3.93 81.44 4.42 4.60 1.74纯油气标的综合性油公司 5 of 28 2 EV/EBITDA EV/BOE/D EV/EBITDA EV/BOE/D EV/2P EV/2P P/CF EV/DACF EV/DACF SEC 3.2023 3.1.2021-2022 2023 3 Wind 6 of 28 2023 ROE ROE ROE 4 Bloomberg 2023Q3 3.2.2013-2022 71%/74%/59%2016 EPS DPS 0.0464 2022 5 6 2022 Bloomberg Wind/Bloomberg Wind 2020 类型 代码 名称 净资产收益率 销售净利率 资产周转率 权益乘数税务负担(净 利/税 前 利 润)利息负担（税 前 利 润/E B I T）COP US Equity 康菲石油 0.226 0.300 0.636 1.923 64.888 95.894OXY US Equity 西方石油 0.235 0.281 0.407 3.701 61.499 88.303DVN US Equity 戴文能源 0.342 0.332 0.645 2.100 79.920 92.677PXD US Equity 先锋能源 0.228 0.344 0.535 1.607 78.381 97.877EOG US Equity EOG 资源 0.274 0.435 0.555 1.576 78.728 98.476883 HK Equity 中国海洋石油 0.217 0.432 0.428 1.578 73.345 98.567纯油气标的平均 0.254 0.354 0.534 2.081 72.793 95.299XOM US Equity 埃克森美孚 0.221 0.178 0.933 1.845 67.426 98.731CVX US Equity 雪佛龙 0.163 0.180 0.773 1.594 70.924 98.702TTE FP Equity 道达尔集团 0.237 0.170 0.713 2.489 54.474 92.586BP/LN Equity BP 公司 0.409 0.190 0.806 3.897 64.902 91.581SHEL LN Equity 壳牌 0.148 0.153 0.797 2.171 61.759 91.253ENI IM Equity 埃尼 0.155 0.104 0.631 2.514 54.890 91.143EQNR NO Equity 挪威石油 0.356 0.400 0.766 2.839 39.892 96.103386 HK Equity 中国石油化工 0.066 0.034 1.589 2.580 68.091 84.343857 HK Equity 中国石油股份 0.150 0.083 1.100 1.943 70.230 90.317综合性油公司平均 0.212 0.166 0.901 2.430 61.399 92.751纯油气标的综合性油公司 7 of 28 EBITDA 2020 2019 46.6%2021 EBITDA 7 20 8 20 EBITDA Bloomberg Bloomberg/3 43%38%16 43%23 Q3 54%2020 23.8%15.1%20.9%11.8%23.0%9 10 4,920 23.03%57.14%246 101 696 1,038 819 131 202 1,687 5,143 15.08%62.43%535 172 566 178 1,866 529 93 1,205 1,398 11.81%28.91%43 0 207 0 106 953 34 55 2025303540455055602016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3%0510152025302016Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3%8 of 28 3.3./2023 36.32/2023 14-17/11 Bloomberg 2023 11 13(Bloomberg)12 数据来源：Bloomberg 2023 11 30 2.2/3.1/6200/4497/13(/)/(/)%/1719 7677 2999 11229 10 97-12 1507 7872 2864 9600 9 137 20 10 2037 8295 3737 17742 13 43 40 21 1519 6759 2765 10190 10-38 37 BP 1070 6864 2255 7183 9-29 16 751 4523 1610 6614 11 103 33 8 1013 6156 2039 5191 7 76-964 3130 1738 6599 10 176 37 15 620 1666 1159 3817 9 172 45 16 11754 10617 13617 25860 54-769 3420 1340 3126 6 164 66 15 2483 12808 4618 18661 11 107 41 13 1342 2133 1709 5828 9 185 28 7 9 of 28 Bloomberg/14 Bloomberg 2023 11 30 ROE ROE(2022 11%2023 Q3 15%)4.4.1.PV-10 PV-10 SEC SEC SEC SEC 2008 12 2010 1 ARAMCO AB Equity 7455600028.SH 6200XOM US Equity 4811601857.SH 4497VLO US Equity Valero Energy 3360CVX US Equity 3100MPC US Equity 3083TTE FP Equity 1882096770 KS Equity SK Innovation 1839SHEL LN Equity 1667BP/LN Equity 1466REP SM Equity Repsol 10645019 JP Equity Idemitsu Kosan 992PKN PW Equity Polski koncern Naftowy 898010950 KS Equity S-Oil 875ENI IM Equity 662OMV AV Equity OMV 416NESTE FH Equity Neste 308EQNR NO Equity 217 10 of 28 1 SEC SEC 2009 10 26 FASB 2010 1 10 932 PV-10 PV-10 SEC PV-10 PV Proved 90%2P 50%50%3P 10%90%15 SEC SEC SEC DeGolyer and MacNaughton Ryder Scott SEC A PV-10 4 PTR ADR 2000-04-06 2022-08-12 SNP ADR 2000-10-18 2022-08-12 CEO ADR 2001-02-27 2021-02-26(Reserve)(PV)(PB)(PS)(PD)(PUD)(PDP)(PDNP)(SHUT-IN)(BEHIND-PIPE)11 of 28 PV-10 DCF SEC 10%PV-10 1)12 2)3)4)5)10%PV-10 PV-10 2022 PV-10 2613.71 2022 PV-10 1193.55 2020-2022 PV-10 CAGR 68.5%16 PV-10 17 2022 PV-10 Bloomberg Bloomberg PV-10=+-PV-10 2021 PV-10 PV-10 18 PV-10 19 PV-10-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022中国石油PV-10估值（百万美 元）YOY(右轴)-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022中国海油PV-10 估 值（百 万 美 元）YOY(右轴)12 of 28 Bloomberg Bloomberg PV-10 PV-10 BP PV-10 1.3-2.0 PV-10 PV-10 0.62 20 PV-10 Bloomberg PV-10 SEC PV-10 2016 2021-2022 100%2022 21 1 22 2022 13 of 28 Bloomberg Wind Bloomberg Wind PV-10 10%10%PV-10 10%SEC 4.2.IOC NOC 46 15 EV/EBITDA EV/BOE/D EV/2P P/CF EV/DACF EV/EBITDA P/CF PE PB NOC EV/EBITDA 8-12 NOC 1-3 PB EV/BOED EV/2P EV/DACF IOC NOC 5 EV/EBITDA NOC-200.0%-100.0%0.0%100.0%200.0%300.0%400.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%180.0%200.0%14 of 28 Bloomberg 6 EV/BOED IOC NOC Bloomberg 7:EV/2P 15-30 Bloomberg 8 EV/DACF 2-8 FY 2022 FY 2021 FY 2020 FY 2019 FY 2018 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2015 FY 2014 FY 2013 FY 2012 FY 2011 FY 2010 FY 2009 FY 2008OKE US Equity ONEOK Midstream 12.49 12.31 15.79 18.34 13.96 16.70 14.62 12.94 15.06 18.61 13.67 11.00 9.80 9.74 8.74NESTE FH Equity Neste international R&M 11.28 12.75 32.73 8.49 11.22 9.12 6.66 8.12 14.18 5.13 6.72 7.22 8.54 9.26 8.85MMP US Equity Magellan Midstream Partners Midstream 10.73 11.42 11.04 12.96 11.70 16.43 19.10 16.68 19.12 20.07 17.40 15.07 15.99 15.91 7.81TRGP US Equity Targa resources Midstream 10.62 12.80 18.18 16.10 24.35 19.71 14.00 9.61 13.08 11.31 7.92 8.87 LNG US Equity Cheniere energy Midstream 10.40 76.27 12.25 13.24 18.26 23.17 230.17 31.61 20.35 42.56 EPD US Equity Enterprise products partners Midstream 9.70 10.21 10.87 12.02 11.92 15.95 17.00 15.85 19.12 17.61 14.60 14.59 16.06 15.54 9.67PPL CN Equity Pembina pipeline Midstream 9.47 13.69 73.77 20.50 15.02 22.09 20.26 16.50 19.40 17.34 18.28 18.30 16.31 13.90 11.54ET US Equity Energy Transfer Partners Midstream 8.35 7.14 12.25 9.50 11.09 17.82 21.61 16.82 19.63 21.23 21.99 15.17 16.70 12.37 41.54BPCL IN Equity Bharat petroleum international R&M 6.92 6.24 15.56 8.38 8.21 9.19 6.26 7.84 6.47 8.01 10.21 9.03 11.63 8.90 5.85CVX US Equity Chevron international E&P 6.04 7.07 12.92 7.92 6.82 12.53 19.86 11.41 6.21 5.90 4.19 4.02 4.71 5.94 3.32096770 KS Equity SK Innovation international R&M 5.78 9.87 9.18 6.60 5.15 3.74 5.64 27.69 9.71 9.45 4.98 8.84 9.19 5.52PTT TB Equity PTT NOC 5.73 5.54 9.46 7.21 5.56 5.61 5.66 6.12 6.61 5.69 6.53 6.38 7.08 7.41 4.24XOM US Equity Exxon Mobil international E&P 5.31 6.89 14.78 11.02 8.35 12.53 18.07 11.80 8.17 8.06 6.04 5.91 6.87 8.54 4.82BP/LN Equity BP international E&P 5.02 4.99 7.20 5.67 8.19 13.64 18.39 6.89 4.28 6.03 3.77 80.22 6.16 4.33IOCL IN Equity Indian oil international E&P 4.94 4.76 11.70 6.88 5.46 7.20 5.90 12.99 7.38 9.25 5.88 8.45 6.61 6.28 5.27PXD US Equity Pioneer Natural Resources North American pure-play E&P 4.65 8.68 12.38 9.31 8.11 16.61 44.86 18.60 8.50 60.07 9.39 12.90 11.24 11.98 3.81FANG US Equity Diamondback Energy North American pure-play E&P 4.48 6.50 9.76 13.18 15.01 80.22 10.88 18.99 17.86 COP US Equity ConocoPhillips international E&P 4.45 5.63 13.83 5.34 5.19 18.79 19.30 41.54 6.68 5.15 4.38 5.09 4.19 6.07 2.92OXY US Equity Occidental Petroleum international E&P 4.13 4.91 11.88 5.60 12.36 23.77 12.00 6.64 6.93 5.51 7.82 8.75 3.405019 JP Equity Idemitsu Kosan international R&M 4.10 8.43 19.76 6.72 6.23 7.82 18.54 8.99 6.80 5.48 5.94 8.86 5.12 8.12YPFD AR Equity YPF NOC 3.61 2.90 6.84 6.21 3.59 4.48 11.21 4.04 4.07 6.05 3.17 5.62 5.70 5.78 8.54REP SM Equity Repsol European integrated 3.29 4.54 6.55 6.43 7.09 71.04 13.72 13.06 5.31 8.79 3.41 5.85 3.50010950 KS Equity S-Oil international R&M 3.24 4.85 16.34 16.81 9.50 5.28 9.03 158.64 14.45 11.99 6.68 10.92 15.58 4.69135 HK Equity Kunlun Energy NOC 3.13 4.90 6.42 7.60 5.62 6.27 6.92 5.42 5.69 8.65 10.33 9.10 8.79 23.54 3.13MPC US Equity Marathon Petroleum North American pure-play R&M 3.11 7.35 9.32 9.41 8.12 10.01 7.33 10.55 6.24 3.15 2.64 VLO US Equity Valero Energy North American pure-play R&M 3.08 8.78 30.55 7.30 5.80 7.90 6.20 4.57 3.78 5.24 4.34 3.54 5.42 9.96 7.51SHEL LN Equity Shell international E&P 2.96 4.54 8.07 6.10 5.53 8.34 11.00 8.35 5.43 5.42 4.63 4.73 5.69 7.85 3.25TTE FP Equity Total Energy international E&P 2.87 4.32 8.96 5.65 5.54 6.37 9.28 8.58 6.61 4.62 3.49 3.33 3.85 5.58 3.55GAZP RM Equity Gazprom NOC 2.74 3.34 5.87 5.02 2.50 3.62 4.16 3.03 2.66 2.20 2.66 2.62 3.94 5.15 2.00AKRBP NO Equity Aker BP international E&P 2.07 3.00 8.20 7.14 4.02 6.94 9.47 7.28 OMV AV Equity OMV European integrated 1.96 4.45 9.64 4.70 3.83 7.66 3.91 100.27 3.91 3.76 2.99 3.64 4.14 5.31 2.93OAOFY US Equity Tatneft NOC 1.61 3.65 6.55 6.15 5.54 6.61 6.41 4.54 3.80 3.85 4.43 4.27 5.52 3.72 3.20PKN PW Equity Polski koncern Naftowy international R&M 1.54 2.70 5.22 4.95 5.34 4.55 4.55 6.36 10.05 6.96 5.50 5.43 7.51 8.10PBR/A US Equity Petrobras NOC 1.49 2.41 6.30 5.12 5.70 6.43 8.01 18.96 49.47 7.08 7.60 6.35 7.39 7.10 3.72883 HK Equity CNOOC NOC 1.44 1.75 3.28 3.63 3.56 4.58 7.03 4.01 3.00 4.02 4.39 3.56 6.82 7.94 3.77EQNR NO Equity Equinor NOC 1.11 1.92 12.01 4.25 2.75 3.83 7.35 4.92 2.66 2.31 1.76 2.11 2.66 3.08 1.62EV/EBITDA FY 2022 FY 2021 FY 2020 FY 2019 FY 2018 FY 2017 FY 2016 FY 2015 FY 2014 FY 2013 FY 2012 FY 2011 FY 2010 FY 2009 FY 2008XOM US Equity Exxon Mobil international E&P 127.06 84.21 66.45 89.14 86.20 100.51 103.63 89.08 105.71 110.96 93.76 91.43 84.80 82.87 96.72CVX US Equity Chevron international E&P 118.10 82.78 66.89 82.71 78.81 100.29 101.36 75.43 88.15 94.06 77.71 76.93 65.57 58.03 58.52PXD US Equity Pioneer Natural Resources North American pure-play E&P 90.28 77.89 58.15 79.87 72.84 110.33 133.52 102.92 121.67 164.10 106.67 104.45 109.86 72.68 42.94CLR US Equity continental resources North American pure-play E&P 71.32 39.36 54.03 70.00 107.92 119.24 70.71 116.22 188.18 175.69 214.45 252.73 208.96 118.05COP US Equity ConocoPhillips international E&P 87.66 69.64 46.38 58.11 62.28 55.42 54.75 50.69 65.92 71.14 56.59 68.23 60.33 53.46 58.40SHEL LN Equity Shell international E&P 84.48 69.08 64.17 86.02 80.43 94.98 82.05 66.29 78.17 82.01 74.26 82.35 71.79 68.16 52.57FANG US Equity Diamondback Energy North American pure-play E&P 81.27 70.17 47.86 76.63 152.91 177.79 206.13 156.19 219.69 400.97 231.22 PGN PW Equity Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe NOC 107.01 78.17 78.17 105.52 107.57 80.51 71.12 91.35 137.67 159.52 100.74 88.31 97.83 91.49OMV AV Equity OMV European integrated 74.83 71.63 75.29 60.86 52.16 84.94 65.66 62.21 63.45 88.38 66.66 67.56 68.20 66.15 48.80OXY US Equity Occidental Petroleum international E&P 74.72 55.95 46.83 85.69 80.98 107.17 98.45 84.98 109.16 130.53 109.67 106.52 115.71 100.00 82.26AKRBP NO Equity Aker BP international E&P 71.92 61.35 60.52 98.03 70.46 86.72 109.57 63.39 197.17 1079.15 2256.85 1328.73 593.95 296.57 43.60BP/LN Equity BP international E&P 63.93 42.61 38.83 48.50 46.69 50.49 48.27 37.64 44.56 54.74 48.59 48.11 42.48 52.11 47.87TTE FP Equity Total Energy international E&P 62.62 59.20 53.90 61.22 61.67 65.47 65.78 65.57 71.93 75.06 62.60 60.19 58.64 75.39 62.47REP SM Equity Repsol European integrated 52.51 52.11 46.58 54.07 48.17 57.68 48.09 55.24 87.62 129.05 128.95 214.36 153.17 174.37 43.49EQNR NO Equity Equinor NOC 47.92 41.49 35.03 38.86 37.91 40.92 38.84 28.53 34.03 43.35 41.72 49.75 45.14 45.45 29.29NVTK RM Equity Novatek international E&P 40.66 31.25 38.25 38.22 26.77 28.69 20.23 20.74 34.64 39.15 40.16 51.06 30.70 9.83PBR/A US Equity Petrobras NOC 37.89 41.34 47.55 64.21 57.93 54.80 57.90 44.96 58.20 72.91 75.95 85.25 109.85 102.64 51.82LUKOY US Equity Lukoil international E&P 26.37 23.48 27.25 21.54 20.21 21.41 13.03 16.83 25.36 24.90 21.73 23.53 25.31 15.74883 HK Equity CNOOC NOC 30.94 26.69 30.38 52.83 51.71 53.35 50.98 41.38 56.82 79.50 90.07 75.21 112.28 104.82 67.90OAOFY US Equity Tatneft NOC 24.56 29.87 46.73 39.69 35.62 29.97 17.69 15.63 27.29 32.85 25.83 26.51 19.14 9.65YPFD AR Equity YPF NOC 27.11 20.99 23.40 27.79 23.96 30.49 25.94 23.60 34.46 45.09 22.73 38.29 4