20240318_华创证券_光伏银浆行业深度研究报告：N型迭代驱动量利齐升技术革新助力格局优化_29页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 03 18 N 90%N TOPCon N N 2024 TOPCon PERC 70%N 70%-80%PERC N PERC 6-8mg/W TOPCon 10-13mg/W HJT 16-20mg/W N P N LECO+2023 PERC 450-500/kg TOPCon PERC 200/kg HJT 800-1000/kg TOPCon LECO/200/kg N 2024 7501+16%7103+36%2024 438+22%425+35%N 1 2023 95%2 CPIA 2022 41.4%/21.7%/12.8%76%2020-2022 2023 2726+6.6%TOPCon HJT N PERC LECO N LECO S0360522080001 S0360522100003%()38 0.00()12,087.87 1.37()9,506.73 1.38%1M 6M 12M 11.5%-13.5%-39.4%5.5%-9.8%-28.9%20240304-20240310 2024-03-11 20240226-20240303 25 500GW 2024-03-03 20240219-20240225 3 2024-02-26-48%-30%-12%6%23/03 23/05 23/08 23/10 24/01 24/032023-03-202024-03-15 300 2009 1210 1 N 2 3 4 N PERC LECO N TOPCon N N 2024 N 70%-80%PERC N PERC 6-8mg/W TOPCon 10-13mg/W N P N LECO+N P YWEVwPmRmPoPoQpMnQqPoPbR8Q9PpNrRnPqMkPoOtQlOrQxO8OnNzQuOnNsPwMoOtQ 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.8.8 N.9 TOPCon N.9 N LECO.11 1 N P.11 2 LECO.12 N.13.15 N.15.16.17.17.19.20.20 TOPCon N.22.24.26 2009 1210 4 1.6 2 P 35%.6 3.7 4 90%.7 5.7 6.8 7.9 8 23Q1-3 87%.9 9 23Q1-3 92%.9 10.10 11 2024 N 1000GW GW.10 12 2024 TOPCon PERC GW.11 13 2024 TOPCon 70%.11 14 N P mg/W.11 15 N P/kg.12 16 p+/p-Poly Ag+.12 17 LECO.13 18 LECO.13 19.14 20.15 21.16 22 2022 76%.16 23/kg.16 24.16 25.17 26.18 27 2023.18 28 2020-2022.18 29.19 30.19 31.20 32 2022.20 33 2023Q1-3 73.99+51.63%.21/lAR2rEToPjt5HBQ4BYJZrzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVmPPbA8dUKQNbb0pxUHbiwf 2009 1210 5 34 2023Q1-3 4.41+45.69%.21 35.21 36.21 37 2023Q1-3 1454+42%.22 38.22 39 2020.22 40 2023 96.03+154.94%.23 41 2023 3.86.23 42.23 43 2023.23 44 2023Q1-3 1118.58+129%.24 45.24 46 2011.24 47 2023Q1-3 28.18+16.07%.25 48 2023Q1-3 0.83-58.1%.25 49.25 50.25 51 2022 425.2+85%.26 52.26 2009 1210 6/1/35%/13%0.05/W Solarzoom 2024 1 P 182mm PERC 13%35%0.05/W 2 P 35%/W 0.23 62%0.05 13%35%0.01 2%7%0.02 7%17%0.01 3%7%0.01 4%9%0.04 10%25%0.37 100%100%SOLARZOOM P N P 2009 1210 7 500 BSF PERC PERT TOPCon 250 HJT 3 P N P 5 0 0 P N TOPCon 250 HJT 90%99.9%4 90%5 CPIA 90%2009 1210 8 1 DOW A AmesGoldsmith Ferro DOW A 2 KE SDI 3 6 CPIA 1000 1.6 0.02/GW GW 2009 1210 9 7 90%90%8 23Q1-3 87%9 23Q1-3 92%iFinD iFinD N TOPCon N TOPCon HJT xBC 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60/GW 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 2009 1210 10 10 TOPCon HJT BC/26.0%2023.11 26.49%25.18%P TBC 26.11%N TBC 31.13%25%+26.81%25.5%P HPBC 25.8%pro P HPBC 2023/10 33.9%2023/10 25.8%31%+26%2024/2 26.89%26%2023/12 25.6%25.8%SE 2023/11 26.8%N ABC 2024/1 25.8%2023/11 26.33%26%2023/11 2023 N 2024 1000GW TOPCon InfoLink Consulting 2024 TOPCon 920GW HJT 74GW 11 2024 N 1000GW GW InfoLink Consulting N 2024 70%2023 TOPCon 130-140GW 25%2024 TOPCon PERC 70%N 70%-80%02004006008001000120014002021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026ETOPCon HJT xBC 2009 1210 11 12 2024 TOPCon PERC GW 13 2024 TOPCon 70%InfoLink Consulting CPIA InfoLink Consulting N P PERC 6-8mg/W TOPCon 10-13mg/W HJT 16-20mg/W PERC N N P 14 N P mg/W N LECO 1 N P N+2023 PERC 450-500/kg TOPCon PERC 200/kg HJT 800-1000/kg 0200400600800100012002022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026EPERC xBC TOPCon HJT 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026EPERC xBC TOPCon HJT 6-810-1316-200510152025PERC TOPCon HJT 2009 1210 12 15 N P/kg 2023 2 LECO Ag+n+/n-Poly Ag+p+/p-Poly Ag+PERT/TOPCon p+16 p+/p-Poly Ag+Hee-Soo Kim,et al.Electrochemical nature of contact firing reactions for screen-printed silicon solar cells:origin of“gray finger”phenomenon.LECO 10V 450-500650-700800-1000020040060080010001200PERC TOPCon HJT 2009 1210 13 LECO 1 Ag+2 Ag-Si AgSix 3 AgSix 17 LECO LECO TOPCon DK72E LECO 0.3-0.5pct 5-10mV 2023 LECO GW TOPCon 2024 LECO TOPCon LECO TOPCon LECO/200/kg LECO 18 LECO LECO DK72EDK82EDK95EDK73E SOL8200 PV3NLPV6NLPVD2L Solamet N TOPCon N 2023 N 2024 N 2009 1210 14 N 2024 2024 7501+16%7103+36%2024 438+22%425+35%19 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E GW GW 240 390 465 560 670 YoY 63%19%20%20%GW GW 366 592 698 840 1005 PERC 89%71%20%6%1%TOPCon 6%24%70%80%80%HJT 1%1%4%6%8%4%4%6%8%11%PERC mg/W 9 7 7 6 6 PERC mg/W 4 3 3 3 3 TOPCon mg/W 13 12 11 10 9 HJT mg/W 21 16 13 11 10 mg/W 17 16 15 14 13 PERC 2770 3028 954 327 62 PERC 1271 1262 398 136 26 PERC 4040 4290 1352 464 88 TOPCon 282 1706 5156 6742 7420 HJT 77 95 357 548 805 242 379 636 970 1469 3370 5208 7103 8588 9756 YoY 55%36%21%14%4641 6470 7501 8724 9782 YoY 39%16%16%12%PERC/kg 5150 5969 5800 5800 5800 PERC/kg 3032 3386 3200 3200 3200 TOPCon/kg 5400 6169 6000 6000 6000 HJT/kg 5650 6369 6150 6150 6150/kg 5450 6219 6050 6050 6050 175 316 425 516 587 YoY 80%35%21%14%214 358 438 520 588 YoY 68%22%19%13%CPIA Solarzoom 2009 1210 15 N 2023 95%2016 2018-2022 CPIA 2022 85%2023 95%TOPCon LG HJT 20 CPIA 2022 76%2022 CPIA 2022 41.4%/21.7%/12.8%76%2023Q1-3 1454/1118.58+42%/+129%HJT CPIA 2022 TOP3 TOP3 N HJT CPIA 2022 TOP3 KE HJT 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2009 1210 16 21 22 2022 76%CPIA 2019-2022 23/kg 24 iFinD iFinD N HJT HJT N 020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 41.4%21.7%12.8%24.1%01002003004005006007008009002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 17 2022 45%30%25 HJT 2023 4-5/N HJT N HJT HC3X HC4X HC5X HC6X HAC5X TCO HJT 2022 2022 2023+1 2009 1210 18 26 DOW A AmesGoldsmith Ferro DOW A 2023 85.9%/7.8%2020-2022 2023 2726+6.6%TOPCon HJT 27 2023 28 2020-2022 2023 PERC TOPCon 50%HJT 85.9%7.8%3.9%2.0%0.5%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050010001500200025003000350040002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YoY 2009 1210 19 29 PERC 100%80%100%TOPCon 50%50%100%HJT pH 30 1 2023 2023 9 3000 2024 500 10 2 5000 2000 5000 1800 2024 2009 1210 20 31 3000 LA LF 300 300 5000 1800 5000 2000 200 P PERC N TOPCon HJT 2015 2018 P 2022 2023 32 2022 2019-2022 CAGR 93.77%CAGR 76.81%2023Q1-3 73.99+51.63%95%4.41+45.69%2009 1210 21 33 2023Q1-3 73.99+51.63%34 2023Q1-3 4.41+45.69%iFinD iFinD 2023Q1-3 4.13%0.85pct 0.39%/0.25%/3.48%+0.11/-0.26/-0.69pct 2023Q1-3/11.03%/5.94%-0.24/-0.26pct 35 36 iFinD iFinD 2023Q1-3 1454 42%3,000 600 500 2024 2024 4000 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%010203040506070802019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 YoY0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.02019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 YoY-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 2009 1210 22 37 2023Q1-3 1454+42%38 3,000 1700 3,000 1300 2023 9 600 2023 11 500 2024 TOPCon N LECO PERC TOPCon HJT/2010 2020 2022 n-TOPCon TOPCon LECO 39 2020 2023 2019-2023 CAGR 64.88%2023 96.03+154.94%95%2022 2022-0.17-118.44%2023 N 3.86 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%020040060080010001200140016002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 YoY 2009 1210 23 40 2023 96.03+154.94%41 2023 3.86 iFinD iFinD 2023 6.00%-2.20pct 0.86%/1.56%/3.58%-0.38pct/-1.43pct/-0.38pct 2023 2023 11.14%/3.93%+2.34pct/+4.50pct TOPCon 42 43 2023 iFinD iFinD N 2023Q1-3 1118.58 128.99%N TOPCon 534.6 1202.91%48%N TOPCon 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0204060801001202019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YoY-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YoY-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 24 44 2023Q1-3 1118.58+129%45 500 500 1000 1000 24 2000 2000 2024 HJT 1990 2006 2011 2020 HJT 2021 HJT 2022 TOPCon xBC 46 2011 2019-2022 CAGR 18.2%2023Q1-3 28.18+16.07%2023H1 70%2019-2022 CAGR 56.7%2023Q1-3 0.83-58.1%2022 1.48 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 YoY 2009 1210 25 47 2023Q1-3 28.18+16.07%48 2023Q1-3 0.83-58.1%iFinD iFinD 2023Q1-3 9.26%+1.51pct)2.91%/0.18%/6.17%-0.03pct/+0.81pct/+0.72pct 2023Q1-3 14.36%/3.03%-2.56pct/-5.25pct 49 50 iFinD iFinD N 2023Q1-3 N Topcon HJT 2023 HJT 50%2023 6 1000 2023 7 500-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%051015202530352018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 YoY-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 2009 1210 26 51 2022 425.2+85%52 500 500 36 500 24 1000-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003504004502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY 2009 1210 27/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2009 1210 28 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 29 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
