折 叠 引 领创 新 时 代，百 家 竞逐 助 力 增长 折 叠屏终 端 行业深 度 报告 S0210522110003 S0210523050004|2024 3 17 华福证券 DSCC 2023 Q3 16%IDC 90%31.7%Magic V2 Q3 15.1%2021 2023 Q3 15.1mm 11.1mm 289.2g 252.4g V Purse 8.6mm 2020 2023 Q3 14032 9942 8294 6766 30%V Purse 5999 UTG CPI UTG CPI 2 华福证券 WUBYxOrMtQpOqOnOnQrOnMbRdN8OtRmMmOrNkPpPsRiNnPoPbRmMxOxNrRxPwMrRmR目录3 华福证券 41.1 OPPO VIVO Mate XMate XsMate X2Mate Xs2Mate X3Mate X5Galaxy FoldW21Galaxy Z Fold2W22Galaxy Z Fold3W23Galaxy Z Fold4W24Galaxy Z Fold5Mix FoldMix Fold2Mix Fold3Find N Find N2 Find N3Magic VMagic VsMagic Vs2Magic V2V PurseX FoldX Fold+X Fold2P50 PocketPocket SGalaxy Z FlipGalaxy Z Flip3W23 FlipGalaxy Z Flip4W24 FlipGalaxy Z Flip5Find N2 FlipFind N3 FlipX Flip2019.01.01 2023.12.31 2020.01.01 2023.12.31 OPPO VIVO 2018 2019 2019 2021 OPPO 2012-2018 2019 2020 2021 1 2 2019-2023 2023 OLED Mate X5 Galaxy Z Flip5OPPO Find N3 X Fold 3 华福证券 yHwlafJHVT6HRQ5ucITQ97zkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVm/kowqYh14ahGhxjJmH8fS 51.2 IDC 2022 Q3 2023 Q3 2023 Q3 196.5 90%IDC DSCC Counterpoint Research 21001570610031501900227070704600-1000100200300400500600010002000300040005000600070008000Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422 Q123 Q223 Q323 Q423 4 22Q1-23Q4%00.20.40.60.81Q122 Q222 Q322 Q422 Q123 Q223 Q323 Q423 5 22Q1-23Q4 OPPO Techo Vivo DSCC 2023 700 Z Flip 5 Z Fold 5 Mate X3 Magic V2 23Q4 DSCC Ross Young 2023 Tecno 2023 Mate X V 2023 1,032 1,110 1,015 1,256 1,965 246%104%53%173%90%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 6 22Q3-23Q3 31.7%17.9%15.4%15.1%12.7%5.2%2.0%7 2023Q1-Q3Huawei OPPO Samsung Honor vivo Xiaomi Lenovo 华福证券 Chnbrand 79%50%61.3 Counterpoint Research Chn-brand 45.0%49.4%+4.4%22 23 50.1%51.3%+1.2%22 23 53%48%29%19%20%NO.3 34.0%30.5%33.4%32.9%33.3%32.1%NO.1 NO.2 NO.1 38.7%32.4%NO.2 36.7%22.3%vs 8 9 华福证券 71.4 eWiseTech CGS-CIMB 30 UTG 2.25 1mm 3mm 87 MIM 18%35%2022 8 5.4mm 11.2mm 262g USB/BOM BOM BOM Galaxy Fold 1 Galaxy S9+Galaxy S9+pcts$636.70$375.80$260.90 218.8 34.36%79 21.02%139.8 13.34pcts/87.5 13.74%29.8 7.93%57.7 5.81pcts 9.2 1.44%4.9 1.30%4.3 0.14pcts 79 12.41%57 15.17%22-2.76pcts 57.8 9.08%44.5 11.84%13.3-2.76pcts 48.5 7.62%38 10.11%10.5-2.49pcts 7 1.10%5.5 1.46%1.5-0.36pcts 10.9 1.71%8.8 2.34%2.1-0.63pcts 19 2.98%15.5 4.12%3.5-1.14pcts 21 3.30%19 5.06%2-1.76pcts 71 11.15%67 17.83%4-6.68pcts/WALN 7 1.10%7 1.86%0-0.76pcts 11 Galaxy Fold 1 Galaxy S9 BOM 12 Galaxy Fold 1 Galaxy Fold 1 BOM MIM CGS-CIMB 87.5 13.74%GalaxyS9+30 5.8pcts 218.8 34.36%13.34pcts eWiseTech MIX FOLD2 10 MIX FOLD2 华福证券 8 2021 2023 Q3 15.1mm 11.1mm 289.2g 252.8g 2023 7 Magic V2 9.9mm 231g 5 72%2023 9 Mate 60 Pro 8.1mm 225g Magic V2 2021 12598 2023 Q3 8846 13.6mm 11.1mm 13.4mm 8.6mm 17.2mm 14.6mm 15.1mm 13.4mm 11.1mm2021 2022 2023 Q3 13 2021-2023 Q3 OPPO VIVO 12,598 9,238 8,846 14,032 10,338 9,942 8,294 7,037 6,766 2021 2022 2023 Q3 15 2020-2023 Q3 272 214mm 317mm 275g 233g 311mm 289.2mm 272.9mm 252.4mm2021 2022 2023 Q3 14 2021-2023 Q3 OPPO VIVO 1.4 华福证券 目录9 华福证券 10Colorless PI CPI Colorless PI TFT PET UTG+PET UTG TFT OLED CPI UTG+PET UTG CPI UTG CPI UTG CPI 2.1 UTG CPI BOE OLEDindustry 2022 2022 CPI PI PI UTG CPI UTG CPI CPI UTG 20 CPI CPI 90%600 CPI CPI CPI UTG Ultra-Thin Glass 1.3 0.12 0.15 0.2mm UTG CPI Coating UFG UFG UTG 16 UTG CPI 华福证券 11 UTG CPI UTGUTG NEG CPICPI KOLON SKC CPI CINNO 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%UTGCPI 17 2019-2023 61%13%CINNO UTG 67%23 CPI 33%2.1 UTG CPI UTG 5420/2022 330/UTG UTG UTG NEG 18 UTG CPI 华福证券 122.2 UTG UTG 20000 0.3 1.1 mm LCD 5 20 t/d 0.3 mm TFT TN/STN TFT/mm TN/STN-LCD 0.31.1 TFT-LCD 0.30.7 0.51.1 0.51.1 0.330.7 UTG 图表19溢流下拉法生产装置示意图表20流孔下拉法生产装置示意 21 22 华福证券 132.3 30.4845.1850.6863.2446.2343.500.430.971.21 1.57 1.40 0.96-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 23 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)23.067.97 8.10 7.9111.7713.528.7321.3535.6341.4650.7131.23-100102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 2018-2023Q2 ITO TFT-LCD 2018-2021 2022 2023 43.5 10.77%0.96 28.97%60%-80%20%UTG ITO UTG-UTG UTG iFinD 2023 2022 华福证券 CG ITO AR/IM 142.3 96.1560.2468.4470.18 69.8762.967.12 8.45 8.34 9.046.80 3.06-60.00-50.00-40.00-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.002018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 25 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)26 sensor AR+AF AG AR AF 2.5D AG+AR+AF PC PMMALCD ITO LCD GPS TN-LCD ITO TN-LCD RTP ITP CTP IM ITO IM ITO CTP AR AR GG+LCM 10.1inch GG 15.6inch GG 12.3inch GG+LCM 12.8inch AG AR AF 10 Sensor 2mm OGM SITO SENSOR OGS OGS AR DITO SENSOR OGS 8inch AF 10 0.1mm TFT-LCD OLED OLED PF TFT-LCD S-ITO/IMITO/MB/OLED/COF ITO Sensor TFT-LCD LCM ITO TFT LCM 2018 2023 62.96 21.59%3.06 47.60%iFinD 2022 华福证券 152.3 2.202.323.503.193.022.090.37 0.340.59 0.560.39-0.08-100-50050100150200250300-1012342018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 28 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)27 25-75 FCCL 5-33 PI C PI iFinD 2022 2023 PIF 5G 5G PI PI 2004 PI PI PI PI 2018 2023 2.09 121.69 2022 8 CPI PI Huawei Mate X Thinkpad X1 Fold Xiaomi MiX Fold Magic V CPI PI PIF MAM PI CPI 华福证券 目录16 华福证券 173.1 iFinD TrendForce CMF TrendForce 2023 14.6%MIM MIM MIM MIM 30 CNC MIM 3D CNC MIM CNC MIM MIM CNC 3D CNC CNC MIM CNC CNC AR AF AG CNC MIM 3D Magic vs2 Apple Watch Ultra/Ultra 2/iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max Galaxy Watch5 Pro Galaxy S24 Ultra Mate Xs2 Watch 4 Pro Magic v2 3D Magic vs2 14Pro oppoFind N2 Find N3 31 Galaxy S24 Ultra OPPO Find N3 14Pro5457677380869301020304050607080901002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 29 2017-2023 MIM 华福证券 18 MIM MIM+TCL Semi-set N 3.2 CNC MIM Indo-MIM KU Vatec S-Connect 3D OPPOVIVO TrendForce 32 华福证券 MIM MIM 19 3.2 MIM Indo-MIM(KU Vatec S-Connect MIM;1932 1984 MIM 2000 IT OPPO Find NVIVO X Fold Galaxy Z Fold 3 W22 5G Galaxy Fold W20 5G Galaxy Z Flip MIM STS MIM CNC 2000 IT Mate X2 Maigc V 1991 MIM CNC MIM P&S SMC MIM3D MIM MIM MIM MIM CNC AM MIM Mate Xs Mate X Yoga 3D 华福证券 203.3 eWiseTech Galaxy U MIM 3D Mate X Mate XS Mate XS Mate X2 Galaxy Z Flip CAM Flip Fold Galaxy OPPO Find N 136 800 3D+OPPO+VIVO+34 33 35 华福证券 213.4 A+g/cm3 Mpa b/E104MPa BHN 2.7 110270 57 7.15 75120 660 6.7 280440 52 7.05 65140 385 1.8 250343 191 4.41 6075 650 4.5 5801646 366 11.76 270310 1668 80%3040%70%3040%+CNC CNC+CNC+CNC CNC 36 37 38 39 华福证券 22 MIM MIM MIM MIM MIM+MIM+MIM MIM 3D 3D CNC 012345 MIM 3D 3.4 MIM CNC 3D 2022,65%,23%,5%,5%,0.40%,1.60%41 MIM 2020 40 MIM 42 43 华福证券 233.5 19.1821.6232.8335.9137.2627.823.283.080.870.261.561.07-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.002018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 44 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)P&S SMC MIM MIM 2018 2022 SMC 2023 27.82 1.48%1.07 13.91%MIM2023Q3 MIMCIM BMG VVT,VCT 45 iFinD 2022 2023 2023 华福证券 24 8.8214.7315.6424.0425.0816.260.371.711.421.84-2.321.17-300.00-200.00-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 46 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)18.8716.934.876.1012.1211.400510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 47 2018-2023Q2 MIM MIM(GIAN)2004 MIM 2022 2022 2023 2023 16.26 1.17 2022 MIM MIM MIM 2022 3.20 MIM CNC+ODM+OEM iFinD 2022 2023 2021 D 60%2019 2016 CNC 2017 B GIANTECH.AME-RICA,INC2020 C 2015 3.5 华福证券 25 50 iFinD 2022 2023 MIM MIM CNC MIM 2020 2022 2023 3.68 0.23 2023 0.59 2023 15.91%0.320.420.610.59051015200.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.702020 2021 20222023 49 2020-2023Q3(%)TWS USB 3.5 3.363.555.093.680.690.470.940.23-100.00-50.000.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.002020 2021 20222023 48 2020-2023Q3(%)(%)华福证券 263.5 CNC iFinD 3.784.304.154.473.95 3.950.540.610.71 0.680.260.32-80.00-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.000.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.002018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 51 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)ISO9001 2018 2021 2022 2023 3.95 37.23%0.32 47.55%2022 2.000.713.044.383.583.000.340.040.430.730.550.38-200.000.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.000.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.002018 2019 2020 2021 20222023 54 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)2020 2022 2023 3.00 0.38 CNC SPM CNC CNC CNC CNC VR+CG C Ra0.1 53 3C 1 2 3 4 5 67 8 9 10 11 12CNC LOGO 1 2 3 4 56 7 8 9 10 52 华福证券 273.5 iFinD 9.8413.0016.5419.3122.5414.201.592.633.182.933.912.45-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 55 2018-2023Q3(%)(%)200 2018-2022 2022 33.43%2023 14.20 14.41%2.45 25.10%iPad 56 华福证券 目录28 华福证券 29 2024 3 17 EPS PE2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E600552.SH 11.53 0.15 0.13 0.27 0.39 62.20 87.02 43.51 29.75 300088.SZ 5.52 0.28 0.20 0.28 0.37 21.56 27.95 19.54 14.82 688323.SH 14.18 0.22 0.32 0.64 0.91 110.11 44.59 21.99 15.67 603327.SH 15.95 0.75 0.50 0.64 0.83 21.44 31.90 24.92 19.22 600114.SH 15.42 0.25 0.31 0.53 0.71 33.64 49.28 28.86 21.68 300709.SZ 37.53-1.25 1.12 1.53 1.81-22.58 33.66 24.61 20.79 688210.SH 21.63 0.84 0.56 1.13 1.57 26.20 38.74 19.14 13.79 300606.SZ 23.25 0.18 0.45 1.22 1.72 63.66 52.25 19.14 13.56 002903.SZ 19.35 0.36 0.42 0.55 0.71 54.92 46.28 35.21 27.26 iFind 华福证券 30 华福证券 31 华福证券 612 A 300 500 6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%32 华福证券 1436 MT 20 200120 华福证券