1 24 A 2.2%300 0.25%A 24 1 yoy-3%/mom-6.4%1 yoy-5.1%23 40%1.8%ADV 08-23 A A ADT 2024 A A 6.35%300+8.28%H H 3.12%+1.30%H 2.12%-0.79%A H 08-23+0.39%+1.95%-2.05%-0.34%24 A H 6.96%1.81%8.89%5.96%24 Wind A H 08-23 0.06%0.80%-1.38%-0.33%23 A H 5.97%7.59%2024 2024 02 17 S0590522100001 S0590522100003 1 23Q4 2024.02.03 2 2024.01.27-30%-13%3%20%2023/2 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 300 2 1.4 1.1 24 A.4 1.2 24.5 1.3.7 1.4 2008.8 2.11 2.1 2024.11 2.2.12 2.3.13 2.4 2024.15 2.5 2008.15 3.17 3.1 2024.17 3.2 2008.18 3.3.20 4.22 1 A.4 2 24.4 3 24.4 4 24.4 5 A.5 6 IPO.6 7.6 8 ADT.7 9 ADT.7 10 ADT.7 11.8 12 A.9 13.10 14 2024.11 15 2023Q1 NBV.12 16“”.12 17 5 1.12 18 2023.13 19 2006 10%.14 20.14 21 2024 300 A.15 22 2024 H.15 23 2008-2023 5 A.16 24 2008-2023 22 A.16 25 2024 2 0.66BP.18 26 2008.19 1ZCXwPnQnOpOrPtQrMrOnM7N8QbRtRmMnPtPiNqQnPfQpOyQ9PqQyQuOsRvNxNmRyR 3 27.19 28.19 29 2024 1.20 30 2023 PSL.21 31 PMI.21 32.21 33 LPR.21 34.22 4 1.1.1 24 A 2024 A 24 1 9625 yoy-3%/mom-6.4%24 1 15663 yoy-5.1%1 A 2 24 wind wind 24 1 28 2 6 2023 8 40%wind 2024/2/8 859 2023/8/30 1439 40.3%24 1 2024/2/7 516.7 1 27%3 24 4 24 wind wind-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.502,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00022-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-1124-01A(%-12.0%-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%1400014500150001550016000165001700017500()%6007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500()4005006007008009001,0001,100()5 24 A 2024 1 A 233 yoy-75%/mom-55.4%23 8 A IPO 5 A wind 1.2 24 2024 24 1 1 9.16%20.5%2 24 IPO IPO 2024/2/13 5 2024 1 IPO 21.8/yoy-45%/mom-75%2024/2/13 37 2024 1 141.5/yoy+2.43%/mom-1.69%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00022-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-1023-1123-1224-01 6 6 IPO wind 1 ADT 24 ADT 1 ADT 967/yoy-30.9%/mom-1.92%1 0.34%/yoy-2BP/mom+3BP 7 wind 1 ADT 265.7/yoy-39.2%/mom-8.2%226.7 1 ADT 1135/yoy+16.5%/mom+5.7%145.1-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000IPO IPO%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%020040060080010001200140016001800200022-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-1023-1123-1224-01()%7 8 ADT 9 ADT wind wind ADV 1 ADV 154.5/yoy+10.6%/mom+12.1%ADV 73.4/yoy+24.1%/mom+12%ADV 81.2/yoy+0.7%/mom+12.2%10 ADT 1.3 2 2.14-2.15 1.3%3.1%2.52.9 ADT 871 11.5%2.52.9 39.6 ADT273+8.25%2.52.9 160.8-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600 ADT yoy(%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%0100200300400500 ADT yoy(%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0 ADT mom%8 ADT1759+28.5%2.52.9 1.37%2024/2/15 6.5%2.74%2024/2/16 15%2.52.9 1.4%5.6%-5%2024/2/14 2.14-2.15 1.16%-4.5%2024 beta 11 wind 1.4 2008 2008-2023 A A ADT 2008-2023 16 13 A 2016+8.9%A 19%2017+10.2%A 20%2019+5.4%A 47%08-23 A 2024/2/14 2024/2/15 2024/2/3 2024/2/91788.HK 6806.HK 3329.HK 1375.HK 3958.HK 2611.HK 6099.HK 6837.HK 6178.HK 6881.HK 6066.HK 6886.HK 3908.HK 1776.HK 6030.HK-3.1%-3.5%-1.9%-4.1%-0.8%1.40%2.4%2.2%-1.1%-0.7%2.1%-2.5%0.1%0.8%-1.0%0.0%-1.16%4.9%2.0%5.6%-3.4%5.1%0.8%-5.0%1.9%4.2%3.1%1.9%-4.5%5.3%0.0%-4.1%9 12 A wind 2008-2023 16 7 300 8 16 6 300 7 2008/2/7 2016/2/8 12.8%7.1%6.8%8.9%15.1%13.7%0.2%2.1%3.5%-2.0%1.0%-1.7%13%-6%-44%-37%-59%-71%-38%3%-4%19%-2%-24%2009/1/26 2017/1/28 8.9%11.4%11.1%10.2%15.2%13.0%-5.0%4.4%3.3%-4.9%2.5%-0.9%53%26%67%-10%-14%-11%103%-15%27%20%14%1%2010/2/14 2018/2/16 24.5%17.6%20.0%17.7%17.1%13.2%4.9%-2.5%-0.2%4.7%-1.4%-1.7%12%13%-20%-7%-7%2%18%29%-33%10%1%-12%2011/2/3 2019/2/5 6.2%14.7%13.5%5.4%6.7%10.6%2.3%5.3%-1.2%-1.3%-0.2%2.0%44%-2%-2%83%64%16%10%-12%-33%47%-9%-37%2012/1/23 2020/1/25 9.6%12.6%9.9%11.8%5.4%6.7%-9.2%5.1%2.8%-0.4%-1.3%-0.2%-36%-36%-34%65%0%-20%43%9%-10%40%-10%-28%2013/2/10 2021/2/12 17.2%11.4%14.2%-73.9%-73.6%-61.5%2.2%-2.2%-0.6%51.8%0.9%48.9%6%-8%29%-6%21%42%-9%-22%42%-16%-7%17%2014/1/31 2022/2/1 13.2%7.0%11.2%189.5%203.6%103.0%1.2%-3.5%1.6%99.2%5.9%-0.4%36%12%19%26%19%-3%60%-25%-17%9%-12%-5%2015/2/19 2023/1/21 23.1%15.7%16.3%35.4%-66.7%-83.8%3.7%-4.5%-0.4%6.1%-51.0%-48.4%373%749%1013%-1%-6%31%86%49%10%11%3%22%10 13 wind 2024/2/52/8 300 5.83%6.06%5.98%23 A 23 11 3 PB 2008/2/7 1week 1month 2016/2/8 1week 1month801193-0.46%-18.87%801193 4.9%5.0%000300.SH 2.01%-14.69%000300.SH 2.96%3.74%-2.47%-4.18%1.9%1.3%2009/1/26 1week 1month 2017/1/28 1week 1month801193 9.3%-2.0%801193 0.7%1.4%000300.SH 10.1%5.4%000300.SH 0.25%1.73%-0.7%0.0%0.4%-0.36%2010/2/14 1week 1month 2018/2/16 1week 1month801193-1.0%-0.8%801193 2.4%-3.1%000300.SH 0.9%0.7%000300.SH 1.4%-1.6%-2%-1.6%1.0%-1.5%2011/2/3 1week 1month 2019/2/5 1week 1month801193 9.7%12.7%801193 3.4%36.4%000300.SH 4.6%6.6%000300.SH 2.8%15.6%5.1%6.1%0.6%20.8%2012/1/23 1week 1month 2020/1/25 1week 1month801193-1.4%8.9%801193-6.2%4.3%000300.SH 0.1%6.3%000300.SH-2.6%2.2%-1.4%2.5%-3.6%2.1%2013/2/10 1week 1month 2021/2/12 1week 1month801193-11.2%-13.6%801193-1.9%-9.8%000300.SH-6.3%-8.9%000300.SH-6.4%-13.8%-4.9%-4.7%4.4%4.0%2014/1/31 1week 1month 2022/2/1 1week 1month801193 2.5%-10.3%801193 3.1%-11.0%000300.SH 3.5%-4.8%000300.SH 0.8%-6.5%-1.0%-5.5%2.3%-4.5%2015/2/19 1week 1month 2023/1/21 1week 1month801193-0.99%10.6%801193-1.47%-4.18%000300.SH-0.41%12.14%000300.SH-0.95%-2.68%-0.58%-1.59%-0.52%-1.50%11 2.2.1 2024 2024 1 NBV 2024 2024 1 2024 1 NBV 14 2024 3.0%/3/5 8/10 3.0%/3/5 8/10 3.0%/3/5/8/10 15 3.0%/3 85 3.0 3.0%3/5 8 3.0 3.0%/3/5 10/15 3.0%3/5 2.5%3/5 3.0%/3/5 10/15/20 3.0%3/5/10 3.0%/3/5 8/10 3.0%/3/5/10/15/20 106 APP 2024 1 2024 NBV 1 2023 10 2 2023 2023 1 NBV 2024 NBV 30%12 15 2023Q1 NBV 16 2023.08 2023.10 2023.10 2024.01 13 2.2 2024 1 2024Q1 2024 2024 1 228.9 207.1 30 2023 1 2024 1 2024Q1 17 5 1 2023 2024 2024Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 050100150200250 2019.01 2020.01 2021.01 2022.01 2023.01 2024.01 13 18 2023 2023.01,0.5-1.5 2023.06 2023.09 2023.11 8 13 2.3 2006 10 2.8%5 300 2006 10 2.8%5 1 2008.12.18-2009.01.12+1.7%+1.2%-6.3%+8.4%300+5.7%+5.3%-2.2%+12.4%PEV 1.54 2.16 1.13 PB 2.46 2.89 1.39 2 2016.07.20-2016.11.10+10.4%+8.5%+4.6%+14.1%+6.2%300+6.0%+4.1%+0.2%+9.8%+1.8%PEV 0.98 0.93 1.04 1.01 PB 1.62 2.01 1.94 2.22 3 2020.02.26-2020.06.03-5.8%-4.8%-9.9%-12.5%-1.1%300-2.4%-1.4%-6.5%-9.1%+2.3%PEV 1.00 0.72 0.58 0.56 PB 1.75 1.72 1.23 1.32 4 2022.01.11-2022.02.28-4.7%-4.4%-4.1%-5.9%-4.8%300 14+0.7%+1.0%+1.3%-0.5%+0.6%PEV 0.67 0.68 0.51 0.48 PB 1.11 1.91 1.35 1.25 5 2022.07.14-2022.11.11-5.5%-8.5%+9.1%+2.5%-9.1%300+6.8%+3.8%+21.4%+14.8%+3.2%PEV 0.53 0.67 0.38 0.34 PB 0.87 1.89 0.99 0.88 19 2006 10%Wind 2006.01.04-2024.02.08 20 Wind 1 886055.WI 2 A 2023.04.27 10 2.8%2024.02.08 10 2.43%PEV 0.53 0.70 0.46 0.40 PB 0.92 2.15 1.08 1.03 2008/12/18 2016/7/20 2020/2/26 2022/1/11 2022/7/14 2023/4/27 2009/1/12 2016/11/10 2020/6/3 2022/2/28 2022/11/11 2024/2/8-4.0%4.4%-3.4%-5.4%-12.3%-15.0%1.7%10.4%-5.8%-4.7%-5.5%-4.4%1.2%8.5%-4.8%-4.4%-8.5%-1.7%-6.3%4.6%-9.9%-4.1%9.1%-13.6%8.4%14.1%-12.5%-5.9%2.5%-8.1%6.2%-1.1%-4.8%-9.1%-6.4%5.7%6.0%-2.4%0.7%6.8%10.6%5.3%4.1%-1.4%1.0%3.8%13.3%-2.2%0.2%-6.5%1.3%21.4%1.5%12.4%9.8%-9.1%-0.5%14.8%7.0%1.8%2.3%0.6%3.2%8.6%15 300 PEV PB 2.4 2024 2024 A 2024 A 2024.02.08+6.4%+6.2%+8.6%+9.4%-1.7%+5.6%300+8.3%+8.1%+10.5%+11.3%+0.2%+7.5%A 1 2024.01.24+2 2024.02.06 ETF H 2024.02.16 4.0%8.1%1 2024 2 24 6%H 3.1%+1.0%A 2024.02.09-2024.02.16 H 2.1%-0.8%21 2024 300 A 22 2024 H Wind 1 A 2 2024.01.02-2024.02.08 Wind 1 887185.WI 2 H 3 2024.01.02-2024.02.16 2.5 2008 2008-2023 2009 2011 2012-15-10-5 0 5 10 15 300 16 2014 2016 2019 2021 2022+15.82%+4.17%+0.61%+0.20%+1.21%+0.01%+6.16%+10.41%2009 2012 2021 2022 300 300+5.75%+0.53%+12.53%+9.58%2009 2011 2022 23 2008-2023 5 A Wind 2008-2023 2009 2011 2012 2015 2016 2018 2019+2.01%+2.80%+1.12%+4.79%+6.66%+1.33%+11.09%2016 2018 2021 2022 300 300+2.91%+2.90%+13.68%+2.41%300 3%2009 2011 2012 2015 2016 2019 24 2008-2023 22 A Wind 2024 2024 1 PMI 49.2%+0.2PCT 17 3.3.1 2024 2024 2024 A 2024 2 8 A 6.96%300 8.89%24 Wind 1 H 2024 H 2024 2 16+1.81%24 6 A 2024/2/9-2024/2/16 H 1.84%1 2024 1 24 2 5 0.50pct 9000 24 0.71BP 24 0.66BP 2023 12 1-5 10-25bp 1 MLF 2 ETF 2024 2 6 A ETF 1 ETF ETF 1 公告(huijin-)18 25 2024 2 0.66BP Wind 3.2 2008 2008 A 2008-2023 0.06%2009-2012 2014 2016 2022 8.71%0.13%2.01%0.82%4.94%0.61%6.14%2008-2023-1.38%2009-2012 2015-2016 2019 1.43%0.94%3.48%1.72%7.28%6.43%6.51%H 2008-2023 0.80%2008-2010 2012 278341 1.77%1392 22.20-0.69 0.63 0.86%84476 2.35%422 8.95-0.75 0.71 0.97%328983 1.90%1645 28.17-0.79 0.71 0.78%133016 1.54%665 9.23-0.69 0.68 1.08%272330 1.77%1362 21.72-0.68 0.61 0.67%221737 2.04%1109 20.39-0.79 0.72 0.90%33815 2.20%169 3.35-0.70 0.68 0.74%50018 2.19%250 4.94-0.64 0.63 0.96%21344 2.05%107 1.97-0.53 0.54 0.79%42415 2.33%212 4.45-0.66 0.64 1.26%80302 1.61%402 5.83-0.63 0.59 0.42%51365 2.26%257 5.23-0.61 0.62 0.57%40920 2.35%205 4.33-0.74 0.71 0.97%17998 2.24%90 1.82-0.70 0.72 1.33%55347 2.14%277 5.34-0.68 0.67 0.86%3303 2.91%17 0.43-1.06 1.08 2.50%15519 1.94%78 1.36-0.60 0.65 0.59%3534 2.28%18 0.36-0.67 0.65 1.50%3701 2.25%19 0.38-0.76 0.76 1.22%3661 2.18%-0.00%18489 2.26%92 1.88-0.63 0.67 0.74%10129 2.23%51 1.02-0.64 0.66 0.87%2791 2.64%14 0.33-0.88 0.86 1.37%13619 2.43%68 1.49-0.76 0.86 0.81%20725 1.96%104 1.83-0.57 0.57 0.74%1851 2.45%9 0.20-0.63 0.61 0.82%16358 2.10%82 1.55-0.59 0.60 0.69%6167 2.04%31 0.57-0.64 0.67 0.83%3878 2.14%19 0.37-0.79 0.77 1.04%7326 2.22%37 0.73-0.81 0.78 0.73%3995 2.83%20 0.51-0.80 0.76 1.05%3876 2.53%19 0.44-0.74 0.70 0.72%1374 2.02%7 0.13-0.81 0.72 0.77%1560 2.33%8 0.16-0.95 0.85 0.97%3008 2.07%15 0.28-0.68 0.68 1.21%9025 1.91%45 0.78-0.60 0.57 0.76%2774 2.28%14 0.29-1.03 0.97 1.04%1427 2.30%7 0.15-0.90 0.87 0.97%9794 1.98%49 0.87-0.73 0.71 0.80%1953 2.26%10 0.20-0.96 0.93 1.24%1514 2.02%8 0.14-0.85 0.81 0.92%1885634 1.94%9410 164.58-0.71 0.66 0.80%19 2017 2021-2022 3.92%11.34%0.40%3.88%0.99%2.46%5.69%2008-2023-0.33%2010-2012 2015-2017 2019 2021 5.72%2.84%5.87%0.29%4.04%2.07%2.53%5.42%26 2008 Wind DR007 DR007 2015-2023 DR007-12.48BP DR007-14.22BP 2008-2023+3.27PCT 2009 2008-2023+7.02PCT 2016 27 Wind 28 Wind 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023882115.WI-0.96%8.71%0.13%2.01%0.82%-8.03%4.94%-2.49%0.61%-1.01%-0.69%-1.03%-4.45%-1.21%6.14%-2.57%000300.SH 2.01%10.07%0.93%4.56%0.08%-6.32%3.50%-0.41%2.96%0.25%1.43%2.81%-2.60%-6.37%0.82%-0.95%-2.97%-1.35%-0.80%-2.55%0.74%-1.71%1.44%-2.08%-2.35%-1.25%-2.12%-3.84%-1.86%5.16%5.32%-1.62%887126.WI 3.92%11.34%0.40%-3.93%3.88%-1.86%0.00%-0.78%-1.64%0.99%-2.46%-0.40%-2.28%2.46%5.69%-2.51%HSI.HI 2.79%8.56%1.68%-4.22%3.22%-1.86%0.59%-0.52%-0.01%0.70%-0.87%-0.32%-1.95%-1.51%4.64%-1.74%1.14%2.79%-1.27%0.29%0.66%0.01%-0.59%-0.26%-1.62%0.28%-1.59%-0.08%-0.33%3.97%1.05%-0.77%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023882115.WI-19.99%1.43%0.94%3.48%1.72%-6.39%-4.25%7.28%6.43%-0.02%-4.70%6.51%-4.04%-3.24%-3.03%-4.23%000300.SH-14.69%5.39%0.75%6.60%6.32%-8.90%-4.75%12.14%3.74%1.73%-1.56%15.64%2.18%-13.79%-6.54%-2.68%-5.30%-3.96%0.19%-3.12%-4.61%2.51%0.51%-4.87%2.69%-1.74%-3.13%-9.13%-6.23%10.54%3.51%-1.55%887126.WI-2.96%-2.18%5.72%2.84%5.87%-4.82%-3.45%0.29%4.04%2.07%-4.76%2.53%-4.02%5.42%-6.25%-5.53%HSI.HI-4.98%-4.33%3.55%-1.23%7.25%-5.05%1.04%-1.35%5.19%1.01%-2.59%3.32%-5.96%-3.92%-12.76%-10.25%2.01%2.15%2.17%4.07%-1.39%0.23%-4.49%1.64%-1.15%1.06%-2.17%-0.79%1.94%9.34%6.51%4.71%D R 0 0 7 变 化（B P）2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023春节后一周较节前-8.78 0.39-12.84 16.86-10.41-42.04-6.56-32.64-16.3春节后一个月较节前-95.45 2.34-10.17-12.43 26.12-57.54-2.85-21.68 43.692008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023A 股银 行指 数-0.96%8.71%0.13%2.01%0.82%-8.03%4.94%-2.49%0.61%-1.01%-0.69%-1.03%-4.45%-1.21%6.14%-2.57%H股银行指数 3.92%11.34%0.40%-3.93%3.88%-1.86%0.00%-0.78%-1.64%0.99%-2.46%-0.40%-2.28%2.46%5.69%-2.51%大盘 指数-小盘 指数-3.75%1.26%-4.61%-1.13%-2.63%-5.57%-1.31%-4.76%-3.48%-1.95%-3.95%-3.19%-0.85%-11.05%-1.76%-3.66%A 股银 行指 数-19.99%1.43%0.94%3.48%1.72%-6.39%-4.25%7.28%6.43%-0.02%-4.70%6.51%-4.04%-3.24%-3.03%-4.23%H股银行指数-2.96%-2.18%5.72%2.84%5.87%-4.82%-3.45%0.29%4.04%2.07%-4.76%2.53%-4.02%5.42%-6.25%-5.53%大盘 指数-小盘 指数-10.98%-2.22%-8.42%-6.38%-8.61%-5.52%-6.47%-10.81%5.30%-3.26%-3.51%-19.25%-5.34%-15.34%-4.68%-6.89%春节后一周涨跌幅（5个工 作日）春节后一个月涨跌幅（2 2 个工 作日）20 3.3 1 2024 1 1 6.50 2023 5061 2024 1 4.92 162 9801 3.86 2023 1 2023 2024 PSL 5000 PSL PMI 2024 1 PMI 49.20%+0.20PCT PMI 4 2-3 1 2023 29 2024 1 Wind 0100002000030000400005000060000:21 30 2023 PSL 31 PMI Wind Wind 2023Q4 3.83%-31BP 3.75%-7BP LPR 2022 5 LPR 2023 12 LPR 41.89%+3.46PCT LPR LPR 23Q4 LPR LPR 32 33 LPR Wind Wind 2024 2023 A H 5.97%7.59%2023 3.70%0100020003000400050002014-122015-072015-102016-022016-062016-092016-122017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-092020-012022-102023-12:(PSL):45%50%55%60%65%制造业PMI3.83%3.75%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%金融机构人民币贷款加权平均利率 企业贷款加权平均利率0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/092023/11利率低于LPR 的贷款占比 22 34 Wind 4.0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023A H 23 6 12 6 12 A 300 500 20%5%20%-10%5%10%10%-10%10%10%/208 A 4 1198 37 8 12 4068 1 13 0510-85187583