20240317_银河证券_社会服务行业数字经济系列报告：数、智赋能撬动文旅、教育万亿增量空间_23页.pdf
Table_Header 2024 03 17 Table_Title-Table_Summary 2.0 PC 1.0 AI VR/AR 2.0 OTA AI AR/VR 2027 4.9 7.4 33%39%85-850/AI AI AI AI+6000 AI 4800 G To C 1500 T-C-E Know-How 1 OTA AI OTA Know-How AI 2 AI Table_IndustryName Table_InvestRank()Table_Authors 18916370173 guximin_ S0130522070001 Table_IndustryData 300 2024-03-15 Table_Chart Wind Table_Research 2-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%300 2 Table_ReportTypeIndex.3 2.0.5 1.0.5 2.0.7.8 AI OTA.8.9.11 AI.12 AI.12 AI AI.13 AI.14.19.20 YWAZuNrMoNmNqOpMnQpQpO6M9RbRsQqQoMsOfQoOsReRpOvMbRoOvMwMpPnQxNnRtM 3 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2023 82.5%GDP 4.3 2.8 2023 20%39.7%45.2%1 2023 2 2023 4.74 34%/2019 119%6327 47%/2019 108%1335 2019 91%2H23 3 4 1 2013 39.7%45.9%2020-2022 1H23 44.5%/+1.2pct 2022-40-20020402019-022019-052019-082019-112020-032020-062020-092020-122021-042021-072021-102022-022022-052022-082022-112023-032023-062023-092023-12%7.20%5.80%20.40%20.00%0%5%10%15%20%25%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%国内旅游人次恢 复程 度 国内旅游收入恢 复程 度0%20%40%60%80%100%120%20 年清明20 年端午21 年春节21 年五一21 年中秋22 年春节22 年五一22 年中秋23 年春节23 年端午24 年元旦人均旅游收入恢复率 4 Table_ReportTypeIndex 5 6 GDP 2019 1 2023 Citywalk/90-00 4.4/+228%2019 49%20/+322%2019 83%2019 113%7 80-00 46%8 2023 1 20 80 26.5%10.8%24.8%13.5%1.5%66%57%44.50%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,00020002002200320042006200720082010201120122014201520162018201920202022:GDP 12.6%17.3%15.7%0%5%10%15%20%00 90 80 0%20%40%60%/top1 top1-3GvsemHEx+D5yV3Q+uEXx9rzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVkhsVsEXJM6CAcGwcRBlLOB 5 Table_ReportTypeIndex 9 10 2 KFC 11 12 2.0 1.0 1 PC 2009-2019 GMV 6%32%2008 1.3 2019 4.4 60 12%0%20%40%60%80%100%192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020 40%0%20%40%60%80%100%1982 2017 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 60%12%28%40%-80%6 Table_ReportTypeIndex 13 2008-2019%14 1995-2019 15 GMV 16 CNNIC 2 500 987 CNNIC 1H23 5.3 49.6%2023 1.3 30%17 GMV 18 CNNIC 3 15%20%20%40%20%01002003004005002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0204060801995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%05000100001500020000250002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%012345 0%10%20%30%40%0500010000150002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 40%45%50%55%400004500050000550001H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 7 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 19 1 AIGC IP 20 Teamlab 21 2 3 AI 4 8 Table_ReportTypeIndex AI OTA AIGC OTA PC AI OTA 22 OTA 1 OTA C OTA 2 AI 3 23 AI 24 AI OTA AI 1 OTA Expedia Chatgpt Chatgpt AI 2 B AI Trip Planner ChatGPT API(LLM)Booking 3 GetYourGuide ChatGTP OpenAI GetYourGuide 2023 6 1.94 AI 0%20%40%60%80%0%20%40%60%9 Table_ReportTypeIndex OTA AI OTA AI+AI AI AI&AI 1 AI AI 10000+1000 2 T App AI TripGenie TripGenie 78%68%TripGen 1 30-40%3 2023 10+X/AI OTA AI OTA 1 OTA 64%/28%AI 2 2 2016-2019 1141 3084 39%AI 25 26 AR/VR/3D 40%53%11%0%20%40%60%0%20%40%60%80%10 Table_ReportTypeIndex 27 28 2020 2021 100 200 1 2020 9 2020 11 5 200 2021 4 2022 5 2022 16 50106 6.7%5.7 30.3%30%1.6 1 VR/AR 2013 13%2018 44%2 1H23 2019 110%2019 144.5%29 2020-2022 30 2013-2018 0%5%10%15%20%0%20%40%60%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 11 Table_ReportTypeIndex+TO B/G TO C 31 AI 1 2 AI VR/AR 2026 2023 4.9 7.4 GMV 1.6 2.9 33%39%2 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0%347%430%450%480%48.91 60.63 63.0 67.2 1004 1034 1065 1097 49100 62691 67095 73718 10.94 11.05 11.2 11.48%42%45%48%50%3526 3702 3887 4082 GMV 16201 19715 23892 29094 GMV/33%31%36%39%CNNIC 85-850/2023 3A 8500 1 10 10%850 2/12 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1000-1 85-850 AI AI AI AI Quizlet ChatGPT AI 65%61%AI AIGC AI-AI-32 AI 2020 AI 2021-2023 GPT-3 GP4-4 Duolingo Max AI DET AI 5000 33 5000 34 1Q23 Duolingo ChatGPT AI AI 2045 50%AI 10 AI 2023 5 AI 050100Duolingo Duolingo 13 Table_ReportTypeIndex 35 2023 AI AI AI 1 2019 2 2017 AI 3 2020 2021-2027 AI+K12 2023 AIGC+45 K12 GPT-4 Speak Chegg AI Duolingo AI+Explain My Answer Roleplay 36 2023 AIGC+37 2023 AIGC+Dealroom IT AI 10 AI AI 1 Duolingo Elsa SpeakAI 2 Q-Chat Chegg 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%14 Table_ReportTypeIndex 3 Khan Academy aipcb 2024 2 10 AI Quizlet AI Q-Chat 9 2 27%Q-CHAT Quizlet OpenAl ChatGPT API Q-Chat 38 2024 2 AI AI AI AI AI+TO G TO B TO C 2027 7000 39 AI+1 To G+5000 2001 2001-2017 1.0 2017-2021 2.0 1 2 AI+AI+AI+Quizlet ChatGPT AI 65%61%AI 0123 15 Table_ReportTypeIndex AI 2024 2024 TO G 2017 7 2035 2018 2022 2.0 2035 2011-2020 4%8 3/2017 2018 2019 2035 4%2019 2018 2022 2022 2023 2024 2035 2011-2020 4%8 AI TO G 2027 4779 2023-2027 4.7%16 Table_ReportTypeIndex 40 2019-2027 2 TO C+6%AI TO C K12 2021 6%2023 AI 41 AI AI Know-How XPAD K12 MathGPT AI 3204343336673775397341724372457347790%2%4%6%8%10%01000200030004000500060002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 17 Table_ReportTypeIndex T-C-E Know-How TO C 42 TO C 800 2021 TO C 329 17-21 22.5%2026 TO C 741 17.6%K12 2027 K12 AI 6%10%3000 5000 2027 TO C 866 43 TO C/IT AI AI AI AI IT/IT AI IT IT 2023 IT 649 AI AI IT 14.62025.2 27.932.939.747.956.465.174.113.515.522.528.23338.145.253.762.270.9040801201602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026ETO C TO B 18 Table_ReportTypeIndex 3 TO B AI know-how token C B 20%OpenAI AI 10 AI 44 4 K12 K12 MathGPT Ai K12 Ai LAM K12 AI AI AI LLM AI AI Box 19 Table_ReportTypeIndex T-C-E Know-How 1 OTA AI OTA Know-How AI 2 5 3 14 EPS PE X 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2.11 2.22 2.53 17.6 18.3 15.5 0.67 0.83 1.02 26.5 21.6 17.5 0.10 0.24 0.33 36.1 38.9 28.0-0.64-0.28 0.11-33.6-127.6 313.9 Wind Wind 20 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1 AI AI 2 AI AI 21 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1 2023.3 2 2023.3 3.3 4.3 5.4 6 GDP 2019 1.4 7 80-00 46%.4 8.4 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13 2008-2019.6 14 1995-2019.6 15 GMV.6 16.6 17 GMV.6 18.6 19.7 20 Teamlab.7 21.7 22 OTA.8 23 AI.8 24 AI.8 25.9 26.9 27.10 28.10 29 2020-2022.10 30 2013-2018.10 31.11 32 AI.12 33 5000.12 34 1Q23 Duolingo ChatGPT.12 35.13 36 2023 AIGC+.13 37 2023 AIGC+.13 38 2024 2 AI.14 39 AI+.14 40 2019-2027.16 41.16 42.17 43.17 22 Table_ReportTypeIndex 44.18 1.10 2.11 3.15 4.18 5 3 14.19 23 Table_ReportTypeIndex Table_AuthorsRxplain 2022 7 Table_RatingStandard Table_Avow 6 12 A 300 50 10%-5%10%5%20%5%20%-5%5%5%Table_Contacts 3088 20 0755-83471683 chengxi_ 0755-83479312 suyiyun_ 99 31 021-60387901 luyunru_ 021-20252671 liyangyang_ 8 1 010-80927721 嫚 010-80927722 tangmanling_
