20240225_天风证券_建筑装饰行业出海系列报告之二:建筑行业出海动向及展望_29页.pdf
|1 2024 02 25()SAC S1110520120003 SAC S1110521010001 SAC S1110521120005 1-:“”2024-02-18 2-:“”“”2024-02-04 3-:2024-01-30 2023 11.4%23M1-11 49%24.7%23 1554 42%23 350 913 EPC EPC+2023H1 110.12%/129.84%1 2 3-23%-17%-11%-5%1%7%13%2023-02 2023-06 2023-10 300|2 EPS()P/E 2024-02-23 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 600970.SH 11.28 0.83 0.94 1.10 1.27 13.59 12.00 10.25 8.88 000065.SZ 11.07 0.63 0.87 1.05 1.27 17.57 12.72 10.54 8.72 000928.SZ 6.46 0.44 0.55 0.62 0.71 14.68 11.75 10.42 9.10 300982.SZ 21.87 1.24 1.37 1.67 2.08 17.64 15.96 13.10 10.51 601668.SH 5.49 1.22 1.29 1.40 1.55 4.50 4.26 3.92 3.54 601117.SH 6.97 0.89 0.98 1.16 1.39 7.83 7.11 6.01 5.01 601800.SH 8.69 1.17 1.30 1.44 1.61 7.43 6.68 6.03 5.40 601669.SH 5.12 0.66 0.77 0.89 1.02 7.76 6.65 5.75 5.02 601618.SH 3.33 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.78 6.66 5.74 4.97 4.27 601390.SH 6.43 1.26 1.43 1.61 1.80 5.10 4.50 3.99 3.57 601186.SH 8.75 1.96 2.14 2.35 2.62 4.46 4.09 3.72 3.34 601868.SH 2.17 0.19 0.18 0.21 0.24 11.42 12.06 10.33 9.04 601886.SH 6.17 0.43 0.59 0.76 0.89 14.35 10.46 8.12 6.93 605598.SH 18.45 0.64 0.88 1.27 1.79 28.83 20.97 14.53 10.31 603163.SH 29.20 1.23 1.61 2.13 2.84 23.74 18.14 13.71 10.28 600496.SH 2.95 0.35 0.43 0.53 0.65 8.43 6.86 5.57 4.54 605167.SH 8.18 0.31 0.56 0.78 1.07 26.39 14.61 10.49 7.64 300284.SZ 4.95 0.47 0.55 0.63 0.73 10.53 9.00 7.86 6.78 301046.SZ 22.09 0.17 1.07 1.34 1.63 129.94 20.64 16.49 13.55 300712.SZ 19.80 0.45 0.86 1.22 1.70 44.00 23.02 16.23 11.65 Wind PE=/EPS ZXCXuNmRoNqRtNtQsPtMpO6M9R9PtRnNoMrNeRrRtRfQtRtN6MmMzRvPpMqRxNqQtO|3 1.5 2.9 2.1.&.9 2.2.11 2.3.12 2.4.13 3.14 3.1.16 3.2.“”.17 3.2.1.17 3.2.2.19 3.2.3.22 3.2.4.&.24 4.27 5.28 1 2008-2023.5 2 2015-23M1-11.5 3 2018-2022.6 4.6 5.7 6“”.7 7.8 8 2023.9 9 2023 TOP10.13 10 2023 TOP10.13 11 2008-2023.14 12 2008-2023.14 13 2016-2023.16 14 2016-2023.16 15 2016-2022.16 16 2016-2022.16 17 2019-2023.17 18 2019-2023/.17 19.18 20 22 9.18|4 21 2017-2022.19 22 2018-2023H1.19 23 2023H1.19 24 2017-2023H1.20 25 2017-2022.21 26 2019-2023.21 27 2017-2023H1.21 28 2018-2023H1.22 29 2018-2023H1.24 30 2017-2023H1.24 31 2016-2023.24 32 2019-2023H1.25 33 2017-2022.26 34 2017-2022.26 1 2023().9 2 2023.10 3.11 4.12 5.13 6.14 7 30.20 8 2019-2023.21 9.23 10 23.24|5 1.2008-2023 CAGR 8%WTO 2001-2007 2008 2016 2017 2017-2019 2020 2022 9853.7 5.2%1465 0.9%7859.4,7.2%1168.5 2.8%2022 209.7 3.3%17.9%23 23 1301 11.4%23M1-11 285.7 49%24.7%23 1 2008-2023 2 2015-23M1-11 Wind Wind 70 2018-2022 25.8 2022 725874 88.17%2018-2022 25.8 3 1,301.3-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0200400600800100012001400160018002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023亿美元 285.7-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250300201520162017201820192020202120222023M1-11亿美元|6 3 2018-2022 CIIC 2021 2022 2023 10 4 2023 0-29 58.18%30-59 41.43%5.35.55.15.293.901234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022万个新成立出海企业数量|7 5 2023 6 2023/LG ASKO 0-29分,58.18%30-59 分,41.43%60-79分,0.66%80-100分,0.03%0-29 分30-59 分60-79 分80-100 分|8 2012 7 VEcareer|9 2.2.1.&2023 24 1 2023 403 328 1.4 178 138 0.69 49%2022 107 89 0.91 11%8 2023 23 1554 2023 1.06 29.9%1554 11%642 42%1 2023()100GWh 448.6 19.6 PACK 2.1 0.5 168.3 98.3/STRIVE/LINDO 5 14.2/SK On/ECOPRO 64.0/CAHAYA/2.0 35.6 010002000300040005000600070008000 23|10()3 11.0/71.2/11 61.0/22.0 6 59.5 40000 39.6 5 35.4 20.6 12 16.6 10 106.8 10 98.4 8.5 50.0 10 59.0 3 FDC100 PI 100 38.5 4.5 1553.8 2024 2 4 PV Infolink 2023 1-11 191.8GW+33%TCL 349.8 2 2023/16.09 10.85 96.45 8.5GW 26.92 2.37 6.6GW 20.25 0.96 2.8GW 9.68 9.20 3.35GW 7.08 3.82 G5 M10 9.15 4.57 G2 M10 7.28 1.82 5GW/|11 6.5GW+3.5GW 24.68 20.39 80.7 8GW 56 43.65 6.5GW 16.96 2.3 29.4 12.45 11.36 9.99 6.10 25.9 3.5GW 11.20 11.02 3.5GW 4.72 4.67 2GW/2.19 1.95 46.1 M6 182 3.88 2.99 M6 182 1.57 0.90 38.50 10.78 TCL 3GW 71.20/71.2 349.8 TCL 2023 2024 2 4 2.2.2023 1-9 2022 66.2%2 2023 5 12 2025 23 10 2024 2025 15 2023 913 3 2023 SMOGO 20 15 2023 40 20/2023 28.48 10 2023 42.9 2023 35.8 24 2023 1 12 25 2023 19.6 98 2023 12.8 2023 712 913 2024 2 4|12 2.3.51 20 1000 2000/4800 2035 20%20%2137 2500 4 1000 30 250 167 150+30 251 1000 30 300 134 300 1570 1440 60 2030 1000 800 26 9.10 26 2023/09/07 23 1389/1250/930 2022 42 14%2020 0.3 2022 11.3 23 12.1 27.5%1054 23H1 3.4 0.6%23 12|13 9 2023 TOP10 10 2023 TOP10 2.4.23 11 5 8 3 2.1 Ekornes 5 2023 7.76 2022 21.36 2023 2.1 Ekornes 2023 10.37 2023 4.5 2022 1.7 4000 2023 2.1 2023 3.5 53.5 2024 2 4 706.8558294.5124232.5176.7155310155105.477.518626118612412477.59318677.5155155130124108.577.531077.50200400600800100012001400 496186201.51869318631099.21861861249393 86.8 77.540.3020040060080010001200|14 3.EPC 2023 2645 4.5%+6.6pct 12 868 51%2023 1609 3.8%2020 2023 11 2008-2023 12 2008-2023 Wind Wind 22 59%56.6%40%23H1 87 327 15 EPC 6 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 605598.SH 82.0%79.6%90.6%73.8%59.0%000065.SZ 81.4%76.6%65.5%55.3%56.6%002051.SZ 92.8%47.9%40.3%32.4%49.6%(20)(10)0102030400500100015002000250030002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023%(20)(10)0102030405005001000150020002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023%|15 600970.SH 74.9%68.7%53.3%36.6%42.9%002593.SZ 39.3%32.9%25.5%28.5%30.6%000928.SZ 38.4%17.8%16.1%14.9%28.8%601886.SH 30.4%30.1%26.6%18.3%21.7%601117.SH 37.1%26.6%22.0%20.4%21.4%603163.SH 6.3%12.5%18.2%26.6%17.4%300986.SZ PC 6.9%9.4%12.4%9.4%15.1%002116.SZ 26.9%23.7%19.0%14.0%14.7%601800.SH 19.4%17.3%15.8%13.8%13.7%603929.SH 2.8%3.3%11.7%15.3%13.6%601669.SH 22.5%21.4%16.8%15.0%13.1%601868.SH 14.4%12.8%600667.SH 28.8%26.0%23.9%17.2%12.7%300284.SZ 29.7%12.3%11.1%13.2%12.5%300712.SZ 10.3%41.8%23.4%2.6%11.8%002163.SZ 14.4%11.9%10.6%10.7%11.3%605167.SH 10.8%23.3%15.8%16.4%10.9%600496.SH 5.8%7.4%5.8%4.9%7.0%002761.SZ 0.0%7.8%6.3%5.1%6.3%600853.SH 13.9%6.3%2.9%3.9%5.6%600820.SH 5.8%4.6%3.0%3.8%5.4%601668.SH 7.5%7.3%5.6%4.7%5.3%601390.SH 5.8%5.3%4.8%5.1%5.1%Wind|16 3.1.2016-2023 7552 16075 CAGR+11.40%2023 17.1%9.15pct 10%+0.75pct 2023 165.48%/47.5%/43.2%/15.4%13 2016-2023 14 2016-2023 2016-2022 3.2 6.7 CAGR+13%3078 5000 GAGR 8%2016-2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 20.93%/15.14%/20.46%/14.43%/10.78%21.4%2023 9.11%30.45%16.2%15.97%15 2016-2022 16 2016-2022 Wind Wind 2023 2023 193/616/220 4.7%19.7%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023亿元-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 01000200030004000500060002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022亿元-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022|17 13.1%26.20 27.6%55%37%28%55%54%75%+18pct+7pct+9pct 2023 17 2019-2023 18 2019-2023/3.2.EPC 3.2.1.China s Global Power,CGP 2022 9 92 1423 171.6 113.5 58.1 72 76%90 34 25 34%29%18%12%7%50%11 5 4.7%19.7%13.1%27.6%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 55%37%28%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003502019 2020 2021 2022 2023亿元 yoy yoy yoy|18 19 20 22 9 CGP CGP EPSCO 23 EPC IEC62619 UN38.3 2023 10 12 BANDARBAN 70MW(AC)Pinnacle Omni Traders Ltd.POT Air&Wave Pvt.Ltd.AWP BANDARBAN 70MW(AC)9754.48 2023 10 11 7 8486 2023 10 11 6 1 20 70MW(AC)2009 49MW EPC 800MW 50MWac EPC 50MWac EPC 020406080100亚洲 非洲 大洋洲 美洲 欧洲GW煤炭 水能 天然气 风能 核能太阳能 燃油 生物质能 热能 废物020406080100120运营中 建设中 计划中GW煤炭 水能 天然气 风能 核能太阳能 燃油 生物质能 热能 废物|19 21 2017-2022 Wind 3.2.2.2008 2022 16.01 316.54%23H1 6.66 28.90%73.15%2022 11.03 182.74%22 2018-2023H1 23 2023H1 Wind 40 1007 23 12 BDO 15.51 12.35 TE KAHA 1.08 4.45 23 7.3 7.2%-73.91%1087.46%748.92%-61.82%-82.05%526.77%-200.00%0.00%200.00%400.00%600.00%800.00%1000.00%1200.00%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1亿元中国大陆 境外 其他 境外增速0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1亿元境内 境外73.15%26.85%海外订单 国内订单|20 24 2017-2023H1 Wind 7 30 2023.12 BDO Unibank Inc BDO Corporate Center Makati 16.44 28 15.51 2022.09 BESIX Watpac NZ(CMUA)Limited TE KAHA 25 4.45 2022.05-5.27 2021.04-4.84 2024 2 4 2019 23%22 1.88 11%4.744.977.576.627.3910.944.735%34%16%14%33%1%3%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1亿元中 国大 陆 境外 其 他业务(地区)境 外增速|21 25 2017-2022 Wind 23 GAL-OYA 23 80.16 19.22%13.06 30%2022 2023H1 4.62 323.76%26 2019-2023 27 2017-2023H1 Wind Wind 8 2019-2023 2023.09 2023.06 Galoya Galoya 2023.06 Togo Industries Group EPC 2023.03 10000m/d 0.841.553.292.383.251.888%11%23%16%16%11%0%5%10%15%20%25%051015202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022亿元内销 外销 外销占比17.046.425.1918.6913.06-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0204060801001202019 2020 2021 2022 2023亿元境内 境外 境外增速5.9614.0613.259.677.398.432.53-50%0%50%100%150%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1亿元 中国大陆 境外其他 境外增速|22 2021.02 664 2021.02 2019.12 EPC 24 1.9 14.80 2019.12 EPC 24 1.98 2019.01 Kraft of Asia Paperboard&Package Co.,Ltd EPC-600 1.075 7.3177 2009 2016 Eptisa Servicios de Ingenieria,S.L.Eptisa Eptisa Eptisa Eptisa ADIF San Telmo Awards 22 Eptisa 28 2018-2023H1 Wind 3.2.3.15%-20%27%2020 270 2028 411 5.39%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%0204060802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1亿元中 国大陆 境外 境外yoy|23 9 SSMC Soitec Siltronic ASM KLA TEL Amkor IDM TI FAB MLCC MLCC 5000 IGSS Ventures 32.5 Vedanta 194 2024 2023 2 2023 2023H1 110.12%PCB 23 23H1 2023 2019 2020 2022 12/23 9 2,000|24 29 2018-2023H1 30 2017-2023H1 Wind Wind 3.2.4.&2022 2023 10 Project Blue The Newport Plaza AIA URBAN CAMPUS REDEVELOPMENT Labrador Tower and OSC Sprint TRX Residences Plot 1C 40 23/171.8/196+21%/+28.95%31 2016-2023 10 23 AIA URBAN CAMPUS REDEVELOPMENT 127 2023 Project Blue 3.8 2023 Labrador park Labrador Tower and OSC 218 2023 Sciencr Park Sprint 8.7 2023 0.591.172.004.52 2.821.64-50%0%50%100%150%0246810121416182018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1亿元中国大陆 境外其他 境外增速0.550.630.621.093.384.131.66-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1亿元 中国大陆 境外其他 境外增速8.54%12.36%11.00%19.82%5.82%3.28%-2.35%21.03%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY|25 TRX Residences Plot 1C 7 2023 Westside City 6.5 2023 14.5 2023 Weekly 2019 2.84 2022 3.98 3 CAGR+11.91%100 23 1 5500 20 NCC JGC McDermott CTCI EPC JGC 32 2019-2023H1 wind 2018-2022 7.71%15.08%2017-2022 2022+109.09%2.91 10.92%42.54%-11.36%35.02%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0123452019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 YOY|26 33 2017-2022 34 2017-2022 wind wind-19.87%-11.55%110.78%71.41%0.23%109.09%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%051015202017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 15.35%7.71%10.28%13.70%9.39%15.08%75%80%85%90%95%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022|27 4.2022 725874 2018-2022 25.8 2023 11.4%23M1-11 49%24.7%23 1554 42%23 350 913 EPC EPC+2023H1 110.12%/129.84%1 2 3|28 5.|29/6 300 6 300 20%10%-20%-10%-10%-10%5%-5%-5%-5%B 11 100088 3 A 23 2301 570102(0898)-65365390 6 4 200086(8621)-65055515(8621)-61069806 5033 71 518000(86755)-23915663(86755)-82571995