20240317_东方证券_计算机行业央国企改革专题研究：央国企改革关键年计算机行业是科技创新主力军_23页.pdf
|2024 1 29 2024 2023 AI AI AI 2023 AI PE EPS AI AI 2.AI.XVAZzQmRmPnMoQtQmRrOpO7N8Q8OsQmMtRsOlOmMoNlOoPuMbRoPnNxNnNnNNZpPoR 3.6 2023.1.2.skD9Md66OALOX02br6VG6bzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVnPnVD0gdNJZIA1wNRfas2N 4 1.1 1978-1992 1992-2002 2003-2012 2013-2017 2023 1 2020-2022 2020 6 30 2020 2022 95%1.3 2.5 8 22 2 5 2023 3 16 1 2 3 2023 2023 2.18 0.73 35.2%17.1%2024 1 29 2024 2 27 70%3 24 1.2 6 2023 2012-2022 4 2012-2022 61 33 28 CPU PKS AI 7 5 2024 3 12 wind AI 2.1 IT 24PE Wind 1,049 49%31 135 21%42 107 13%19 228 44%19 261 48%27 81 20%55 69 49%-3,205 37%16 63 60%32 165()29%27 232 30%-60 49%-49 19%-142 21%15电科网安 175 33%-341 39%95 283 29%82 42 30%30 187 40%17 73 30%-207 32%72 30 50%-A 227 18%52 102 24%225 270 23%17 1,176 10%,94 94 26%32 779 16%26 173 23%17 104()62%44 105 31%-中科星图 173()28%25湘邮科技 25 33%-铜牛信息 46 25%-云星宇 31 37%-61 26%-134 35%30 302 50%24 31 29%-24 30%-57()20%-629 28%30 35 15%37 48 11%-通行宝 68 49%24麦迪科技 35 16%16 20()16%-15 26%-604 32%29 40 19%-58 36%59云赛智联 180()28%67天利科技 22 30%-68 25%95 50 27%23 87 26%-143 28%-126 21%-12 21%-20 20%-56 35%23 8 2023 1.14 7300 10%50%2023 3650 6 2023 1 2021.3 2035 2021.11 2021.12 2025 3 2022.1 2025 2022.5(2022-2025)79800730036500100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000 9 2022.6 2022.9 79 2022 11 2027 2023.2 2025 2522 2024.1 2025 PaaS IaaS 7 ARM CPU EDA Linux PKS Phytium CPU+Kylin+Security 10 IC 8 PKS 9 2.2 AI AI AI AI 2023 ChatGPT AI AI 2023 7 2024 1 AI+2024 2 AI 2024 3+10 AI AI 2023 AI 670 2032 1.3 9 39%11 AI IT 1%10%-12%11 AI AI AI AI GPU AI Infra AI 2023 AI 12 AI 1 4.0 CBD IDC IDC 2 AI+33 140 230400670137021703040399054807280897010790130400%20%40%60%80%100%120%020004000600080001000012000140002020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 12 MLOps AI 3 23 5 3.5 GPT 2.3 2023 2 27 2522 2025 2035 13 2522 2023 400G 13 14 15 14,16 2 2023.02 15 2023.04 2023.10 2025 2023.12 2025 60%4.0 2021 7 2022 10 4.0 Portal 17 10 IDC 16 20 18 PE EPS 1 2 3 3.1 2023 19 17 wind PE TTM SW PE PE SW ROE ROE 10%SW ROE TTM 5 SW ROE ROE 20 SW PE TTM wind 21 SW ROE TTM 0501001502002502014/3/72014/6/52014/8/282014/11/282015/3/32015/5/282015/8/212015/11/242016/2/242016/5/202016/8/162016/11/172017/2/172017/5/172017/8/112017/11/102018/2/52018/5/112018/8/62018/11/62019/1/312019/5/82019/8/12019/11/12020/2/42020/4/292020/7/292020/10/292021/1/222021/4/262021/7/232021/10/262022/1/192022/4/222022/7/212022/10/212023/1/162023/4/182023/7/182023/10/182024/1/11 PE SW SW PE 18 wind 3.2 2020 9 22-23-1)2)24 11.5%14.8%15.2%17.5%14.5%12.9%16.1%15.2%14.1%11.0%11.8%12.0%10.5%7.5%3.7%3.6%4.2%4.1%1.7%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%SW 19 IT IT IT IT IT AI 24 3+61 2020-2022 260/326/368 7.48%/7.39%/8.12%8%25 2020-2022 260.16326.27368.147.48%7.39%8.12%7.0%7.2%7.4%7.6%7.8%8.0%8.2%0501001502002503003504002020 2021 2022 20 wind 3.3 1 24 1 29 2024 61 40 2020 24 21 AI(600536)(000066)(600850)(002268)AI(002230)(300188)(600602)(300212)A(000032)(301153)(002152)(002368)(002777)(002401)(301339)(603019)(300895)(000977)(002063)(600131)(688631)AI 22 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%
