人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 1中国人民大学重阳金融研究院中国人民大学国际货币研究所 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院成立于 2013 年 1 月19 日，是由中国人民大学与上海重阳投资管理有限公司联合创办的一所现代化智库。中国人民大学校长、央行货币委员会委员、金融学家陈雨露教授任院长。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院有 15 名国际高级研究员（包括全球中小企业联盟主席、联合国工业发展组织前总干事卡洛斯·马格里诺斯，罗马俱乐部前秘书长马丁·李斯等），21名高级研究员（包括前中国银行副行长、国际商会执行董事张燕玲，前伦敦经济与商业政策署署长罗思义等）。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院以“立足人大，放眼世界；把脉金融，观览全局；钻研学术，关注现实；建言国家，服务大众”为宗旨，力求为国家培养和发展输送高级金融人才，立志打造一个以“大金融”研究与传播为核心目标、有中国特色的现代化新型智库，最终实现金融报国、知识报国的宏愿。中国人民大学国际货币研究所（以下简称“研究所”）是隶属于中国人民大学财政金融学院与中国财政金融政策研究中心的非营利性学术研究机构。研究所秉承兼容中西的战略思维与严谨求实的学术精神，以建成世界一流的货币金融智库为目标，长期致力于人民币国际化、国际货币体系改革以及中国国际金融战略等货币金融领域的前沿理论研究，并且在科研资政、推动国内外金融改革实践、培养兼具理论素养与实践经验的国际化金融人才以及加强国内外深层次学术交流等方面成效卓著。核心要点提示1.203 年人民币国际化水平继续保持稳步攀升趋势，第三季度人民币国际化指数（RII）已经突破 1 整数关口，达到 1.20，2013 年末提高至 1.36，同比增长53.61%。2. 跨境贸易人民币结算是人民币国际化的坚实后盾，截至 2013 年第三季度，结算规模全球占比已提高到 1.95%；与之相应，人民币国际金融计价支付功能进一步强化，全球综合占比达到 1.38%，同比增长 66.40%。3 . 人民币有望进入更多国家的官方储备，截至 2013 年第三季度，中国人民银行已经与 23 个国家和地区签署货币互换协议，总规模达 2. 万亿元。2014 年国际经济往来中使用人民币的意愿和实际需求有望继续扩大，预计 2014 年底 RI 将攀高至1.88.4 . RI 的增长动力在于中国经济稳中向好、金融体制改革有序推进、跨境人民币使用政策不断突破与完善、国际贸易及金融合作不断深化以及人民币离岸市场发展迅速。5 . 人民币国际化所面对的挑战是：新的强劲增长动力尚待形成；美国 QE 政策退出的时间与力度不明朗；利率市场化与人民币汇率改革之间步调不一致。6 . 人民币国际化未来发展，建议关注人民币汇率双向波动的新变化，防范外汇风险；加大人民币跨境业务创新力度，提升国际竞争力；加快金融体制改革，为人民币国际化提高制度保障，防范系统性财政金融危机。人民币国际化动态与展望The Dynamics and Outlook for RMB Internationalization人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 1中国人民大学重阳金融研究院中国人民大学国际货币研究所人民币国际化动态与展望RII 现状与预测2013 年人民币国际化水平继续保持稳步攀升趋势。第三季度 RI 已经突破 1 整数关口，达到 1.20。估计 2013 年末 RII 将提高至 1.36，同比增长 53.61%。跨境贸易人民币结算是人民币国际化的坚实后盾。截至 2013 年第三季度，银行累计办理跨境贸易人民币结算业务达 3.16 万亿元，同比增长 54.1%。跨境贸易人民币结算规模全球占比提高到 1.95%。人民币国际金融计价支付功能进一步强化。在国际信贷以及国际债券市场上，人民币使用规模继续扩大，达到 9152. 亿元和64.09亿美元，人民币直接投资（人民币FDI 和人民币 ODI）累计高达 1376.6 亿元。截至 2013 年第三季度，人民币国际金融计价支付的全球综合占比1达到 1.38%，同比增长了 66.40%。人民币有望进入更多国家的官方储备。2013 年，中国人民银行相继与匈牙利、阿尔巴尼亚、冰岛、英国的中央银行签署双边货币互换协议。截至 2013 年第三季度，中国人民银行已经与 23 个国家和地区签署货币互换协议，总规模达 2. 万亿元。这既有利于贸易和投资的人民币计价结算，也为人民币发挥外汇储备功能积蓄力量。2014年中国进入全面深化改革的攻坚阶段。简政放权、财税制度改革使民间投资更趋活跃，新型城镇化建设有利于刺激消费需求，加上发达经济体进口需求复苏，中国经济将保持平稳增长。由于贸易顺差资本顺差的格局不会逆转，人民币汇率出现剧烈震荡的可能性较低。国际经济往来中使用人民币的意愿和实际需求有望继续扩大。预计2014年年底RII可能攀高至 1.88。1人民币国际金融全球计价结算综合占比由全球对外信贷总额中人民币信贷比重，全球国际债券和票据发行额、余额中人民币债券和票据比重，以及全球直接投资中人民币直接投资比重构成。2013 年中国经济稳中向好，金融体制改革有序推进，人民币跨境使用政策不断突破和完善，国际贸易及金融合作继续加深，离岸市场迅猛发展。五大支点形成合力，共同推动人民币国际化迈上新的台阶。人民币国际化指数（RI）于去年第三季度跃至 1 以上，正式开启了个位数时代。尽管汇率波动幅度加大、热钱套利以及美国 QE 政策退出引发新兴市场金融动荡等有一定负面影响，但市场需求扩大与改革红利释放仍将助推人民币国际使用份额显著增长。预计 2014 年年底 RII 有望继续攀高至 1.88。聚焦人民币国际化中国人民大学重阳金融研究院2 人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 中国人民大学国际货币研究所图 1. 人民币国际化指数 RII图 2. 国际贸易与金融交易中人民币使用情况图 3. 央行与其他货币当局货币互换规模（亿元）人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 3中国人民大学重阳金融研究院中国人民大学国际货币研究所RII 增长动力第一，中国经济稳中向好。贸易与投资增长较快，夯实了人民币国际化的经济基础。第二，金融体制改革有序推进。取消金融机构贷款利率管制，重启人民币国债期货，人民币合格境外有限合伙人（RQFLP）开闸。特别是中国（上海）自贸区作为对外开放的新标杆先试先行，释放出巨大的改革红利，大大提振了国际市场接纳人民币的信心。第三，跨境人民币使用政策不断突破与完善。经常项目下跨境人民币结算、融资业务的审核程序大大简化，激发了企业和机构对外交往中更多使用人民币的主动性。第四，国际贸易及金融合作不断深化。中国与瑞士签订自由贸易协定，与金砖国家就应急储备安排达成共识，为人民币的国际使用搭建起宽广平台。第五，人民币离岸市场迅速发展。香港、台湾、新加坡、伦敦、卢森堡、法兰克福等地离岸人民币存款规模大幅度增长。除存贷款业务外，中华 120 指数期货、人民币欧洲商业票据（ECP）等人民币金融产品也陆续开始在离岸市场交易。人民币的国际吸引力得到进一步加强。未来挑战挑战一，新的强劲增长动力尚待形成。经济转型任务依然艰巨，资源环境约束逐渐加大，经济增速放缓在中短期内将对人民币国际化产生一定的负面作用。挑战二，美国 QE 政策退出的时间、力度不明朗。新兴市场国家面临较大的资本外流与汇率波动风险，国际经济金融形势依然复杂严峻。外部冲击可能加剧人民币汇率波动，严重打击市场上受套利激励的人民币持有意愿。挑战三，利率市场化与人民币汇率改革之间步调不一致。人民币在岸与离岸价格存在显著差异，极大地刺激了套汇套利活动，使人民币国际化进程在一定程度上偏离了立足于实体经济的路径设计。对策建议人民币跨境使用的相关政策日益完善，多渠道回流机制基本建立，特别是人民币投融资产品逐渐丰富，结算手续与流程更加便利化。有鉴于此，个人与企业可以充分利用离岸市场人民币利率低的有利条件，有效配置资源，降低投融资成本。此外，建议关注人民币汇率双向波动的新变化，做好套期保值工作，防范外汇风险。随着人民币国际化水平的提高，离岸金融市场或将成为跨国公司配置人民币资金的重要场所。建议中国金融机构抓住机遇，加快走出去的步伐，加大人民币跨境业务创新力度，缩小与外资机构之间的差距，提升国际竞争力。中国（上海）自贸区实施的包括资本账户开放在内的多项改革，对货币政策当局和金融监管当局提出更高要求，要为人民币国际化提供制度保障。目前应高度重视金融体制改革，尽快理顺利率体系，建立利率与汇率之间的联动机制，发挥市场在人民币价格形成中的决定性作用。同时要深入研究开放过程中如何有效保护涉及国家安全和核心竞争力的民族产业，以及如何有效防范系统性系统性财政金融危机的发生。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院4 人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 中国人民大学国际货币研究所美元2013 年，美国经济继续弱势复苏，就业形势好转，居民消费回暖，私人投资、出口等增长较快，经济增长总体好于预期。美联储的 QE 退出政策促使全球资金加速回流美国，美元国际需求上升，国际信贷与债券规模不断扩大，截至第三季度官方储备美元占比达 61.4%，美元国际地位将进一步加强。预计 2013 年美元国际化指数为 52.90， 2014年预测水平为54.69，同比增长3.38%。欧元欧债危机不确定性尚存，高额债务及金融分割状态仍对欧元区经济增长产生抑制作用，区内国家经济复苏缓慢且不均衡，法国等欧元区国家主权债评级进一步下调，欧元汇率波动加剧。截至 2013 年第三季度，在传统强势的国际债券与信贷市场中，欧元交易规模表现不理想，国际化地位与影响力总体呈下降趋势，没有达到应有份额。预计2013 年欧元国际化指数为 24.05，2014 年为24.13，同比小幅增长 0.33%。日元在安倍经济学的经济刺激政策下，日元大幅贬值，对日本股市上扬、出口扩大、企业信心恢复具有一定的积极作用，2013 年第三季度日本对外直接投资大幅增加，进一步带动日元资本输出。然而，其国内经济冲高回落迹象显现，与周边国家的国际政治与外交摩擦不断增加，打击了国际市场信心，日元的避险功能被弱化，国际债券、信贷以及官方储备的日元份额均有所降低。考虑正反两方面的影响基本持平，预计 2013 年日元国际化指数为 4.52,2014 年为 4.50，同比降低 0.44%。英镑随着英国经济复苏，英镑作为避险货币的功能有所增强，在国际债券市场上表现较为突出。然而，英国与欧元区存在较高的经济联动性，背后隐忧难以忽视。出口疲软，企业投资不足，制造业产出与订单数量仍未回到危机前水平。预计 2013 年英镑国际化指数为4.22，2014年为4.19，同比下降0.71%。主要国际货币动态与展望2013 年，世界经济复苏势头明显。美国经济增长好于预期，开始实施 QE 退出，美元强势回归。欧元区尚未摆脱经济困境，欧元在贸易及金融交易中的规模有很多下降。日本因安倍经济学的大力刺激，贸易顺差扩大，日元国际化程度与 201 年持平。英国经济隐忧不断，英镑国际化指数出现小幅下降。人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 5中国人民大学重阳金融研究院中国人民大学国际货币研究所表 1. 主要货币国际化指数预测总览图 4. 主要货币国际化指数人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 7中国人民大学重阳金融研究院中国人民大学国际货币研究所The Dynamics and Outlook for RMBInternationalizationChinas economy grew steadily in 2013. Financial reforms advanced in an orderly manner, policies guiding the cross-border use of the RMB experienced breakthroughs and improvements, and international trade and financial cooperation deepened. In particular, offshore markets developed very rapidly. Five main pillars have come together to push RMB internationalization into the next phase. In the third quarter of last year, the RMB internationalization index (RII) surpassed a level of 1, heralding the beginning of the RIIs single-digit era. Boosted by growing market demand and the release of the “reform dividend”, the RMB saw a noticeable increase in its share of use in global markets despite greater exchange rate volatility, hot money arbitrage, and financial turmoil in emerging markets triggered by the tapering Quantitative Easing (QE) in the US. It is estimated that the RII will climb to as high as 1.88 by the end of 2014.Focusing on RMB InternationalizationRII Current Status and Future Outlook In 2013, the RMBs level of internationalization continued to increase with steady upward momentum. The RII broke through the threshold of 1 to reach 1.20 in the third quarter. It is estimated the RII rose to 1.36 by the end of 2013, a year-on-year increase of 53.61%.Cross-border trade settlements provided a solid foundation for the internationalization of the RMB. At the end of Q3 2013, RMB cross-border trade settlement transactions performed by banks accumulated to 3.16 trillion yuan, increasing 54.15% compared with the same period last year, and accounting for 1.95% of the world total. RMB-denominated international financial payments strengthened further. Both global credit and bond markets witnessed a further expansion of RMB use, with totals reaching 915.221 billion yuan and 66.409 billion US dollars respectively. RMB direct investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), accumulated to at total of 137.66 billion yuan. By the end of Q3 2013, the “comprehensive global ratio”1of RMB-denominated international financial payments reached 1.38%, a year-on-year rise of 66.40%.1The“comprehensive globalratio” ofRMB-denominatedsettlementsinglobalfinancialmarketsconsistsoftheproportionofRMBcreditintotalglobalforeigncredit,theproportionofRMBbondsandbillsinthetotalglobalissuanceofbondsandbills(balance),andtheproportionofRMBdirectinvestmentintotalglobaldirectinvestment.中国人民大学重阳金融研究院8 人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 中国人民大学国际货币研究所More countries are expected to include the RMB in official reserves. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has successively signed bilateral currency swap agreements with the central banks of Hungary, Albania, Iceland and the UK in 2013. As of the end of Q3 2013, the total amount of currency swap agreements signed between the PBOC and 23 countries and regions reached 2.22 trillion yuan. This not only facilitates RMB-denominated settlement in trade and investment deals, but also helps the RMB to accumulate its strength in international foreign exchange reserves.In 2014 China enters a crucial phase for comprehensively deepening reforms. Streamlining administration and delegating power as well as finance and tax system reform create a dynamic trend that is stimulating private investment. The new urbanization plan will help to stimulate consumption demand, and in advanced economies demand for imports is recovering. It is expected that Chinas economy will maintain stable and steady growth. Because Chinas trade and capital surpluses will not reverse, any violent fluctuation in the RMB exchange rate is unlikely. The willingness to use and the real demand for RMB in international economic transactions are both expected to rise. It is estimated that by the end of 2014 the RII will surge to 1.88.Chart 1: RII人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 9中国人民大学重阳金融研究院中国人民大学国际货币研究所Growth of RIIFirst, Chinese economic growth is stable. Trade and investment are increasing rapidly, which consolidates the economic basis for RMB internationalization.Second, orderly financial system reform is underway. Controls over financial institution loan interest rates are being lifted, RMB treasury bond futures are reemerging and the RMB Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (RQFLP) program was unveiled. In particular, The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone is the most recent benchmark for opening up that will release huge “reform dividends” and greatly Chart 2: Use of RMB in Global Trade and Financial Transactions.Chart 3: Size of Currency Swaps between People's Bank of China (PBOC) and Other Monetary Authorities (Unit: Hundred Million RMB)中国人民大学重阳金融研究院10 人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 中国人民大学国际货币研究所boost the confidence of international markets to accept RMB.Third, RMB cross-border use policy is improving and making breakthroughs. The review process for RMB settlement in cross-border trade and financing operations within the current account has been simplified greatly, inspiring businesses and institutions to take initiative and use RMB in foreign exchanges more regularly.Fourth, international trade and financial cooperation are deepening. China signed a free trade agreement with Switzerland and also reached a consensus with BRICS countries to set up a plan for contingency reserves and a broad platform for the international use of RMB.Fifth, the offshore RMB market has developed rapidly. The scale of offshore RMB deposits in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, London, Luxembourg, Frankfurt and other places have all increased substantially. Outside of transactions in loans and deposits, CES China 120 Index Futures, RMB Euro Commercial Paper (ECP) and other financial products in RMB have begun trading in offshore markets, further enhancing the international attractiveness of the RMB.Future ChallengesThe first challenge: a strong new driver of economic growth has yet to materialize. Economic transformation is still a daunting task, and constraints on resources and the environment are increasing. To a certain extent, slowing economic growth will exert a negative influence on the internationalization of the RMB in the short and medium term.The second challenge: the exit timeframe and intensity of US Quantitative Easing (QE) is still uncertain. Emerging market countries are faced with higher risks from capital outflows and exchange rate fluctuations, and their positions in the international economy and financial system are now more complicated and difficult. External shocks may intensify RMB exchange rate fluctuations and will discourage people in the market motivated by interest arbitrage to hold RMB. The third challenge: there is a discrepancy between the pace of interest rate liberalization and reform of the RMB exchange rate. Significant differences between onshore and offshore prices for RMB greatly stimulate exchange and interest rate arbitrage and divert the planned course of RMB internationalization away from its focus on the real economyCountermeasures and SuggestionsRelevant policies for cross-border use of the RMB have been greatly improved and various channels for capital flows have been established. In particular, investment and financing products in RMB have been gradually diversified, and the process and procedures for account settlement have been made more convenient. Individuals and enterprises can take full advantage of the low RMB interest rate in offshore markets to effectively allocate resources and reduce investment and financing costs. Furthermore, it is suggested that more attention be paid to the 人大重阳研究报告发布第 3 期 11中国人民大学重阳金融研究院中国人民大学国际货币研究所Dynamics and Prospects of Major International Currencies2013 witnessed strong momentum in the world economic recovery. The US economy experienced better than expected growth and began to taper QE, causing the US dollar to make a strong return. The eurozone did not escape its economic troubles, and the scale of euro use in trade and financial transactions dropped off. Vigorously stimulated by “Abenomics”, Japans trade surplus expanded and the internationalization of the yen has remained static since 2012. The pound sterling internationalization index declined slightly due to persistent concerns about the British economy.recent change in the RMB exchange rate to bi-directional fluctuations. Appropriate work should be done to hedge against foreign exchange risks.Following the increased level of RMB internationalization, offshore financial markets may become an important location for transnational corporations to allocate RMB capital. It is suggested that Chinese financial institutions seize this opportunity to speed up the pace of going out into global markets, strengthen efforts to innovate the cross-border trade of RMB, bridge the gap between Chinese and foreign financial institutions and upgrade international competitiveness.A number of reforms including liberalization of the capital account implemented by the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone put a higher demand on monetary policy authorities and financial regulators to provide institutional support for RMB internationalization. At present it is suggested that close attention be paid to reforming financial institutions, setting a clear path for the interest rate system as soon as possible, to establishing linkages between the interest rate and exchange rate and to allowing the market play a decisive role in the pricing of the RMB. At the same time, in-depth research into the problem of how to effectively protect national industries related to national security and core competitiveness and how to effectively prevent systemic financial crisis should be conducted during the process of opening to the outside.US Dollar In 2013, the US economy maintained a weak recovery but saw overall better than expected economic growth with improvement in employment, recovering consumption and rapid growth in private investments and exports. The tapering of QE by the Fed caused global capital to accelerate the return to the US market, further boosting the demand for the US dollar. In addition to continuous expansion in international credit a