20240318_招商证券_保险行业最新观点：如何理解寿险EV和NBV中的经济假设及其变动_16页.pdf
|2024 03 18/2023 EV NBV EV NBV 1 2 2016 2023 5%10%23H1 22 11%2023 1 EV NBV 50bp 200bp-1%-0.5%-0.6%-1.2%-1.4%-1.5%-1.8%-10%-1.6%-3.3%-6.5%-8.3%-10.3%-28.4%2 2023 2023 NBV%86 1.7 4455.9 5.8 4148.4 6.1%1m 6m 12m 6.3-10.7-4.9 0.2-6.9 5.5 1 20240317 2024-03-17 2 20240310 2024-03-10 3 20240303 2024-03-03 S1090516020001-30-20-1001020Mar/23 Jul/23 Nov/23 Feb/24(%)非银行金融 沪深300 EV NBV 2+25%+23%+12%+11%+10%2024 24Q1 NBV+100%+50%+30%+20%+15%LPR 2024 NBV P/EV 0.57 0.47 0.40 0.35 0.13 1 P/EV WUBYuNmRoNqRqOpMmRrOrQaQcM9PsQoOpNtPiNqQmPjMnPoP6MoPqNuOnNtRvPmMsQ 3 EV NBV.5 1 EV NBV.5 2 EV NBV.6.7 1.7 2.7 3.11.12 1 EV NBV.12 2 EV NBV.14.14 1.14 2.15 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.6 5.6 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.8 12.8 13.10 14 10.10 4 15 2022 10.11 16 2022 300.11 17 2014-2023.11 18 2023.12 19 2023.12 20 NBV.13 21 2023 NBV.15 22 24Q1 NBV.15 1.9 2.9 3 EV.12 4 NBV.13 MK5S4MDDCJloWAgguaGGvrzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVnfhl/jWskOx4q+Xs4L/C90 5 EV NBV 1 EV NBV EV Embedded Value 1 2 2016 11=+-+=+NBV New Business Value 6 3 2 EV NBV/4 5 7 1 CAPM 6 2 1 2023 5%4.75%2 5.0%4.8%0.05%8 5.0%23H1 22 2 2016 2020 2023 5%7 8 9 10 11 12 3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%首年 长期3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%首年 长期3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%首年 长期3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%首年 长期3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%首年 长期3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%首年 长期 9 1 2023H1 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%2022 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%2021 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%2020 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%2019 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.25%5.00%2018 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.25%5.00%2017 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.25%5.00%2016 5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.25%5.00%2015 5.50%5.50%5.20%5.20%5.50%5.50%2014 5.50%5.50%5.20%5.20%5.75%5.50%2013 5.50%5.50%5.20%5.20%5.75%5.50%2012 5.50%5.50%5.20%5.20%5.75%5.00%2011 5.50%5.50%5.20%5.20%4.50%2010 5.50%5.50%5.20%4.50%2009 5.50%5.50%5.20%4.50%2008 5.50%5.50%5.20%4.50%2007 5.50%5.50%5.20%5.00%2006 5.40%4.70%2005 4.70%2004 4.75%*23H1 22 2007 2009 2008 2016 2009 2013 2 2012 2020 50-150bp 2023 10%23H1 22 11%2 2023H1 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%10.0%11.0%2022 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%10.0%11.0%2021 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%10.0%11.0%2020 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.0%10.0%11.0%2019 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%10.0%11.0%2018 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%10.0%11.0%2017 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%10.0%11.0%2016 10.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%10.0%11.0%2015 11.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%10.0%11.0%2014 11.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%10.0%11.0%2013 11.0%11.0%11.0%11.5%10.0%11.0%2012 11.0%11.0%11.5%11.5%10.0%11.0%2011 11.0%11.0%11.5%11.5%10.0%11.5%2010 11.0%11.0%11.5%11.5%10.0%11.5%2009 11.0%11.0%11.5%11.5%10.0%11.5%2008 11.0%11.5%12.0%11.5%11.5%2007 11.5%11.5%12.0%11.5%10 2006 11.5%12.0%12.0%11.5%2005 11.5%12.0%12.0%2004 11.5%12.0%12.0%Wind*23H1 22 2010-2014 2016 2007-2009 2012-2013 2016 2020 10 13 14 10 Wind-7.0%-5.0%-3.0%-1.0%1.0%3.0%5.0%7.0%9.0%2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022中国人寿 中国平安 中国太保 新华保险 中国人保 中国太平 11 3 2022 A 300 2022 3.9%2.5%4.2%4.3%4.6%3.3%5%40-250bp 2023 2023 15 2022 10 16 2022 300 Wind Wind 17 2014-2023 2.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%2,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0000.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 12 1 EV NBV EV 50bp 200bp-1%2023 50bp-21%-18%-26%50bp+5%+4%+5%EV 50bp-10%-5.1%-6.0%-7.0%-7.2%-8.0%-9.4%50bp 200bp-1%-0.5%-0.6%-1.2%-1.4%-1.5%-1.8%18 2023 19 2023 3 EV EV 50bp 50bp-7.0%-5.1%-6.0%-7.2%-9.4%-8.0%50bp 100bp-4.8%-3.8%-4.5%-5.4%-6.7%-5.7%50bp 200bp-0.6%-0.5%-1.4%-1.8%-1.5%-1.2%50bp 250bp 1.5%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.2%0.9%*23H1 22 13 NBV 50bp 200bp-10%2023 50bp-28%-29%-66%50bp+6%+6%+9%50bp-14.1%-21.6%-23.4%-28.3%-56.5%-62.1%50bp 200bp 10%-1.6%-3.3%-6.5%-8.3%-10.3%-28.4%4 NBV NBV 50bp 50bp-21.6%-14.1%-23.4%-56.5%-62.1%-28.3%50bp 100bp-15.5%-9.6%-17.7%-47.2%-44.8%-19.3%50bp 200bp-3.3%-1.6%-6.5%-28.4%-10.3%-8.3%50bp 250bp 2.9%1.9%-0.8%-19.0%6.9%4.7%*23H1 22 EV NBV 20 NBV-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%中国人寿 中国平安 中国太保 新华保险 中国人保 中国太平2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 14 2 EV NBV 1 2023 2023 NBV+25%+23%+12%+11%+10%2023 2024 NBV 2024 NBV 24Q1 NBV+100%+50%+30%+20%+15%LPR 2024 NBV 15 21 2023 NBV 22 24Q1 NBV 2 2024 P/EV P/EV 0.57 0.47 0.40 0.35 0.13 1 P/EV 23Q4 0.33%0.43pct 2024 EV NBV 2 EV NBV 0%20%40%60%80%100%中国人寿 中国平安 中国太保 新华保险 中国太平0%20%40%60%80%100%中国人寿 中国平安 中国太保 新华保险 中国太平 16 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
