20240221_华创证券_半导体存储模组行业深度研究报告：景气复苏渐进叠加AI需求释放存储新一轮行情蓄势待发_27页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 02 21 AI/PC/DRAM NAND Flash DDR4 DDR5/SSD AI PC/AI AI DRAM/NAND 8/3 HBM DRAM AI AI NAND Flash DRAM 23Q3 NAND Flash wafer 2024 1 512Gb wafer 512GB SSD 38%123%wafer 23 8 SSD 23 9 31%DRAM NAND Flash DRAM DRAM NAND Flash wafer 16Q2-17Q1 2023 110 3 55 A 2023 23Q4 0755-82755859 S0360517100004 S0360521120002 S0360523060001%()155 0.02()28,850.03 3.47()19,027.64 2.95%1M 6M 12M-5.9%-15.8%-24.9%-10.2%-6.0%-7.4%AI&2023-06-29 MCU 2022-12-31 2021-01-18-35%-16%3%22%23/02 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/12 24/022023-02-212024-02-20 300 2009 1210 DRAM 20162017/23Q3 NAND Flash wafer DRAM 16Q217Q1 WUBYvMtOsRoPqOtQrMoRrQ8OaO6MtRpPpNnRkPmMoMfQtRpN8OpPyQNZtQnPvPmPrP 2009 1210 3.5.5.6.12 AI.15.16 NAND Flash DRAM.16 16Q217Q1.19.20.20 AI.21.22.22“”.23.24 2009 1210 4 1.5 2.6 3.7 4 SSD.7 5 2020-2023E NAND.8 6 2018 SSD.8 7 2022 SSD.8 8 SSD SSD.9 9 2021 SSD.9 10 2023-2032E eMMC.10 11 2023-2033E UFS.10 12 SD.10 13 UFD.10 14.11 15.11 16 2022 SSD.12 17 2022.12 18 DDR5 SODIMM.13 19 DDR5 DIMM.13 20.13 21 2022-2028E.14 22 2021-2028E DRAM.14 23 2022 DRAM.15 24 2023-2024E DRAM NAND Flash.15 25 NAND Flash Wafer.16 26 SSD.16 27 256Gb wafer/256GB SSD.17 28 2021.17 29 wafer/SSD.18 30 23Q424Q1 NAND Flash.18 31 23Q424Q1 DRAM.19 32.20 33.20 2009 1210 5 SATA PCIe 2D NAND 3D NAND DRAM NAND FLASH 1 IDM SSD eMMC UFS 2009 1210 6 2 1)SSD SSD SSD 2)eMMC UFS 3)U 2009 1210 7 3 1)NAND Block 2)3)DRAM SRAM SSD 4)SATA PCIe USB SATA 7 15 4 SSD Jak Electronics PC&AI NAND FLASH PC CFM 2022 NAND FLASH 34%26%22%AI PC 2009 1210 8 L1 L5 CFM 2025 NAND 2TB 2030 200 5 2020-2023E NAND CFM SSD SSD Trendforce 2018 SSD CR5/CR10 46%/61%2022 59%/76%2022 2.02 606 SSD 88.50%SSD 2022 6 2018 SSD 7 2022 SSD Trendforce Trendforce SSD SSD SSD 36%39%34%35%26%25%22%23%21%22%26%29%17%14%18%13%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2021 2022 2023E SSD SSD 26%7%6%4%4%4%3%3%2%1%40%28%9%8%8%6%5%3%3%3%3%24%2009 1210 9 8 SSD SSD SSD IDC 2021 16.2%32.8 16.9%70%9.3%/4.1%9 2021 SSD IDC UFS eMMC eMMC UFS eMMC UFS UFS eMMC 2009 1210 10 eMMC eMMC 5G Imarc Group 2023 eMMC 111 2032 150 Future Market Insights 2023 UFS 43 2033 UFS 178 CAGR 15.3%NAND Flash 10 2023-2032E eMMC 11 2023-2033E UFS Imarc Group Future Market Insights&UFD SD/TF UFD U USB USB SSD UFD 12 SD 13 UFD 1111500204060801001201401602023 2032E 431780204060801001201401601802002023 2033E 2009 1210 11 U 14 Fabless 15 2009 1210 12 CFM 2022 NAND SSD 1.95 51.34%SSD 1.41 37.11%NAND SSD 0.44 11.56%2022 SSD 56.34%17.88%11.73%16 2022 SSD 17 2022 CFM CFM 1)UDIMM DIMM EEC ECC 2)SO-DIMM ECC ECC 3)RDIMM UDIMM RDIMM ECC ECC ECC 4)LRDIMM RDIMM,37.11%NAND,51.34%,11.56%,56.17%,17.88%,11.73%,14.22%2009 1210 13 18 DDR5 SODIMM 19 DDR5 DIMM 1)2)SPD 3)4)Module Supporting Chip 5)20 2009 1210 14 DDR5 Yole 2022 5.11 2028 6.5 4%DDR4 DDR5 Yole DDR5 2022 0.11 2028 6.42 97%DDR4 DDR5 DDR5 SK DDR5 Yole DRAM 2021 83%2028 91%21 2022-2028E 22 2021-2028E DRAM Yole Yole TrendForce 2022 96%78.12%3.78%2.88%2.33%2 4 5 DRAM DDR4 LPDDR4/5,19nm/17nm PC 83%87%88%90%90%91%91%91%17%13%12%10%10%9%9%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028EIDM 2009 1210 15 23 2022 DRAM TrendForce AI ChatGPT AI AI Trendforce 2024 AI 1)2023H1 2023 DRAM/NAND 17.5%/19.2%2024 DRAM/NAND 14.1%/9.3%AI 2)AI AI NVIDIA H200/B100 AMD MI350 CSP ASIC DRAM Trendforce 2024 DRAM/SSD 17.3%/13.2%3)AI PC CPU 40 TOPS AI PC 24H2 Trendforce 2024 DRAM/NAND 12.4%/9.7%AI PC 2025 24 2023-2024E DRAM NAND Flash DRAM NAND Flash 2023 2024E 2023 2024E 17.5%14.1%19.2%9.3%13.6%17.3%14.9%13.2%9.0%12.4%10.1%9.7%Trendforce 2009 1210 16 NAND Flash DRAM NAND Flash wafer 23Q3 A NAND Flash 2024 1 256Gb TLC/512 Gb TLC wafer 1.74/3.30 2023 12 6.1%/6.5%2023 8 82%/123%TLC 256GB/512GB 26.4/37.0 2023 12 23.4%/23.7%wafer design-in 25 NAND Flash Wafer 26 SSD Inspectrum Tech Inspectrum Tech 50%70%2019 6 NAND Flash 256Gb wafer 72%2019.62020.4 256GB SSD 34%2019.62020.4 47%2023 8 NAND Flash wafer 2024 1 256Gb wafer 82%2023.82024.1 2023 9 NAND Flash 2024 1 256GB SSD 37%2023.92024.1 45%512G 512Gb wafer 512GB SSD 38%123%wafer 2023.82024.1 SSD 2023.92024.1 31%0.005.0010.0015.0020.00MLC 128Gb 16384Mx8 MLC 64Gb 8192Mx8*TLC 512Gb*TLC 256Gb020406080100120TLC 1TB*TLC 512GBTLC 256GB 2009 1210 17 27 256Gb wafer/256GB SSD Inspectrum Tech 2019.62020.4 2020.42021.2 2022.52023.4 2023.82024.1 2019.62020.4 2020.62021.2 2022.52023.9 2023.92024.1 2021 20%10%61.6 63%2021 TLC 512Gb 4.5 TLC 512GB 55 GB/SSD 65%SSD/wafer/SSD 100%SSD wafer 28 2021 691,987.89 88.71%616,459.25 79.02%47,137.75 6.04%79,189.97 10.15%384.73 0.05%5,331.35 0.68%3,201.80 0.41%780,095.74 100.00%2009 1210 18 29 wafer/SSD CFM Inspectrum Tech Trendforce 23Q4 eMMC/UFS eMMC/UFS 1823%Enterprise SSD CSP Server 24Q1 Enterprise SSD Enterprise SSD 1823%Client SSD PC OEM PCIe 4.0 SSD Client SSD 24Q1 1520%NAND Flash Wafer Wafer 30 23Q424Q1 NAND Flash 23Q4 24Q1 E eMMC/UFS up1015%up1823%Enterprise SSD up1015%up1823%Client SSD up1318%up1520%3D NAND Wafers TLC&QLC up3540%up813%Total NAND Flash up1318%up1520%Trendforce DRAM TrendForce 24Q1 DRAM 1318%23Q4 Mobile DRAM NAND Flash DRAM DRAM NAND Flash wafer/DDR4 2024 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%wafer/SSD 512G wafer/SSD 512G 2009 1210 19 31 23Q424Q1 DRAM 23Q4 24Q1 E PC DRAM DDR4 up813%DDR5 up1015%Blended ASP up1015%up1015%Server DRAM DDR4 up510%DDR5 up05%Blended ASP up813%up1015%Mobile DRAM up1823%up1823%Graphics DRAM up813%up1015%Consumer DRAM up1015%DDR3 up813%DDR4 up1015%Total DRAM up1318%up1318%Trendforce 16Q217Q1 16Q217Q1 23Q224Q1 2016 16Q2 16Q4 17 Q1 2023 24 1 16 2023 110 3 55 2009 1210 20 32 Wind A 2023 23Q4 23Q4 0.230.83 23Q4 1.351.40 23Q4 14-16 80%50%13/23Q3 22 11.1/8.5/15.6 22 30%/113%/80%33 Wind 23Q4-23Q4 0.97 16.76%-0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%1000%2016-05-16 2017-05-16 2018-05-16 2019-05-16 2020-05-16 2021-05-16 2022-05-16 2023-05-16(MICRON TECHNOLOGY)0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0 2009 1210 21 AI Semsotai North Inc.AI/23Q4 2024 TrendForce 24Q1 DRAM/NAND Flash 1318%/1823%AI PC SSD/DDR AIPC/2023H2/SSD 2023-2025 46.0/59.4/73.0 2.93/5.05/6.48 EPS 1.20/2.07/2.66/2024 65/20 x PE 78.7 AI 1999 SSD FORESEE Lexar()UFS eMMC AEC-Q100-40-105 AI SSD SSD PCIe 4.0 Longsys ORCA 4836 NVMe SSD Longsys UNCIA 3836 SATA 3.2 SSD 2009 1210 22 SiP Lexar SSD Omdia(IHS Markit)2020 Lexar Lexar/2010 Google SoC TCL Google Facebook NAND Flash DRAM“”16 Die 3040m Die NAND Flash DRAM SiP NAND Flash DRAM 5G(HPC)2022 2008 2009 1210 23 2022 1 TW8581 USB3.2 5GHZ TW8581 3D ECC IOPS DC-DC TW8581 2022 2022 2019 2022 UDStore UDStore 2023 PCIe Gen4X4 M.2 2022 DRAM“”2022 2025 50 500 500 2009 1210 24 AI“”2021 ODM 2022H2 2009 1210 25 2019 2016 2017 2019 3 2020 1 2022 2022 2021 2021 2023 2023 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 27 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
