20240331_国盛证券_纺织服饰行业：运动鞋服2023年报总结基本面持续向好期待2024年高质量增长_22页.pdf
|2024 03 31 2024 2023 2023 2023/361+16%/+7%/+11%/+21%+35%/-22%/+12%/+29%2023/Fila/361 4 3.6 2023 2024 2024 1 2024 2 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024/361 33%/7%/13%/20%2022-2027 8.7%1/361 2 2023/Fila/361 9831/1972/7668/8274/8279 2023 200 361 9/4 15pcts 2023 2024 2024 2024 PE 16 2024 PE 14 S0680520070003 S0680523080004 S0680122060018 1 Nike FY2024 Q3 6%2024-03-23 2 Adidas 2024-03-17 3 Amer Sports 2023 2024-03-10 EPS P E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 02020.HK 2.68 3.61 4.80 4.94 28.2 20.9 15.7 15.3 02331.HK 1.57 1.23 1.32 1.49 12.0 15.3 14.2 12.6 01368.HK 0.35 0.39 0.44 0.50 12.6 11.3 10.0 8.7 01361.HK 361 0.36 0.46 0.56 0.66 11.5 9.0 7.4 6.3 Wind-32%-16%0%16%2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 300 2024 03 31 P.2 1.2023.4 1.1.4 1.2&.8 2.2024.10 3.12 4.17 4.1 2023 2024.17 4.2.18 4.3 2024.19 4.4 361 24.20 5.21 1 2019-2023%.4 2 2021H1-2023H2%.4 3 2023%.5 4 2019-2023%.5 5 2019-2023%.5 6 2019-2023%.6 7 2019-2023%.6 8 2021H1-2023H2%.6 9 2019-2023.7 10 2019-2023%.7 11 2018-2023%.7 12 2021-2023 adidas%.8 13 2022Q1-2023Q4 adidas%.8 14 FY2022-2024Nike%.8 15 FY2022Q1-FY2024Q3 Nike%.8 16 2023%.9 17.9 18.10 19 2024.10 20.11 21%.12 22 2019-2023%.13 23 2019-2023/%.13 24.13 25 2019-2023+.14 26%.14 27 2021-2023/%.15 28 2021-2023/%.15 1ZAZxOnQmPoPqOmPqNpQmN8OaO6MtRrRpNmQlOoOmQkPpPmO7NoOyQwMnRxPwMqNmM 2024 03 31 P.3 29.15 30 2021-2023 361 9/4%.16 31 2021-2023%.16 32%.18 33%.19 34%.20 35 361%.21 2024 03 31 P.4 1.2023 1.1 2023 361 13%1127 H1/H2 14%/13%2023 1 2019-2023%2 2021H1-2023H2%Wind Wind/361 2023 2023/361 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4 2023/2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0200400600800100012002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005006007002021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 2023H2 YOY wR2aWP/wX/SifFeqilEd0ciCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfazgVnH1RgdAt9RNPl9iwOj 2024 03 31 P.5 3 2023%2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 Fila 10%-20%25%-30%75%80%70%-75%45%-50%55%-60%10%-20%20%-30%10%-20%20%-30%10%20%20%-30%20%-30%50%-60%10%-20%10%-20%10%20%10%-20%20%30%+361 361 15%20%+361 20%-25%20%-25%25%-30%40%361 35%30%30%30%+2023 1+2023 1.6pcts 54.9%/361+2.4pcts/+1.2pcts/+0.6pcts Fila 2 2023 2022 0.3pcts 13.7%/361+2.3pcts/-4.2pcts/+0.1pcts/+0.7pcts 4 2019-2023%5 2019-2023%Wind Wind 48%49%50%51%52%53%54%55%56%57%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 10%11%12%13%14%15%16%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024 03 31 P.6 6 2019-2023%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11.7%12.5%13.5%15.1%14.9%10.9%9.1%8.0%7.7%8.7%11.0%12.1%11.1%11.3%10.1%361 9.1%9.8%11.1%9.8%9.2%10.6%10.0%12.4%10.3%8.2%9.6%8.9%7.9%8.8%9.0%14.4%11.2%10.2%11.9%13.7%361 9.0%9.5%10.2%11.4%12.7%2.3%2.5%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.6%2.2%1.8%2.1%2.2%2.4%2.7%2.5%2.3%2.8%361 3.8%4.0%4.2%3.8%3.7%3 2023 15.7%154 7 2019-2023%8 2021H1-2023H2%Wind Wind&2024 2023 10.7%128.5/361-15.1%/+2.7%/-21.6%/+14.2%/Fila/361/4-5 3.6 2023/2024 2023 52.7%2022-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0204060801001201401601802019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A YOY-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01020304050607080902021H1 2021H2 2022H1 2022H2 2023H1 2023H2 YOY 2024 03 31 P.7/361 2023 49%/45%/50%/40%/361 9 2019-2023 10 2019-2023%Wind Wind 11 2018-2023%Wind adidas Nike 1 adidas 2023 adidas 8.2%Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4-9.4%/+16%/+5.7%/+36.8%adidas 2024 Yeezy adidas adidas 2 Nike 2023 Nike 2023 6 2024 2 Nike 8%2023 12 2024 2 6%0204060801001201401602019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A YOY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 361 2024 03 31 P.8 12 2021-2023 adidas%13 2022Q1-2023Q4 adidas%14 FY2022-2024Nike%15 FY2022Q1-FY2024Q3 Nike%Wind 1.2&2023 2024 2023 2023 12/2023-26%/-15%1&2023 2023 12/-48%/-69%2 2023 2023 12-26%3 361 361 2023 2023 12 361 5.61%2024-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02004006008001000120014001600Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42021 2022 2023 YOY-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3EMEA-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05001000150020002500Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3FY2022 FY2023 FY2024Nike YOY%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3FY2022 FY2023 FY2024EMEA APLA 2024 03 31 P.9 16 2023%Wind 4 17 Wind-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2023/1/3 2023/3/3 2023/5/3 2023/7/3 2023/9/3 2023/11/3 2024/1/3 2024/3/3 361 0510152025303540452020/1/3 2021/1/3 2022/1/3 2023/1/3 2024/1/3 NTM average+1std-1std 2024 03 31 P.10 2.2024 2024 1 2024 2024 2024 Q1 2023 Q1 Q2 2024 18 Wind&2023 361 2024 361 19 2024 2024+2024 9 160X 361+0204060801001201402019-01 2019-08 2020-03 2020-10 2021-05 2021-12 2022-07 2023-02 2023-09:2024 03 31 P.11&2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 20 PE 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2,356.74 102.4 136.0 139.9 161.6 20.9 15.7 15.3 13.2 537.57 31.9 34.2 38.6 43.5 15.3 14.2 12.6 11.2 128.11 10.3 11.7 13.3 15.1 11.3 10.0 8.7 7.7 361 95.11 9.6 11.6 13.6 15.8 9.0 7.4 6.3 5.5 Wind 2024 3 28 1=0.91 2024 03 31 P.12 3.+361 2022 3630 2017 60%+2023 4010 10%2022-2027 8.7%21%361 2022 2021-2025 2025 2022 11 2022-2025 2021 4 2025 3+2020 2020 37.2%2014 3.3PCTs 2023 IP-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500060002017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E YOY 2024 03 31 P.13 1200 2024 30%+160X 300-500 騛 361 2023 futrue1.5 3 22 2019-2023%23 2019-2023/%361 IP 24 ACE 361 CQT 2-499 Float-599 7 Pro-599 5-499 PRO-699 2 ET-599 21-599 2-569 360-599 3-899 3 challenger-799 4-599 260X-799 Future 1.5-1299 3 Elite-1299 4Pro-799 160X 3.0 Pro-1299 3 Ultra-2299 C202 5 GT-1299 C202 5 GT Pro-2099 C10 Pro-2599 361-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 361 2024 03 31 P.14 1 2023/Fila/361 9831/1972/7668/8274/8279/361&25 2019-2023+361 26%2 2023/0.9%/2.6%361 38%361 0200040006000800010000120002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Fila 361 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Nike adidas 361 2024 03 31 P.15 27 2021-2023/%28 2021-2023/%2023/2023 230 50 361 2023 361/7%/12%/65%/87%2024 29 5 10 5 1000 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021 2022 2023 361 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2021 2022 2023 361 2024 03 31 P.16 30 2021-2023 361 9/4%31 2021-2023%DTC 2023 2.0 361+0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2023361 9%361 4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0501001502002503002021 2022 2023 YOY 2024 03 31 P.17 4.2023 2024 2024 2024 PE 16 2024 PE 14 4.1 2023 2024 2023/16%/35%2023 623.56 16.2%2.3pcts 16.4%34.9%102.36 2023 2023 9.3%303.06 0.8pcts 22.2%DTC 2024 FILA 2023 2023 Fila 16.6%251.03 7.6pcts 27.6%Fila&2023 2023 69.47 57.7%6.5pcts 27.1%Amer Sports 2023 2024 2023 30%312.48 7.2 2024 2024 13.5%33%2024 13.5%Amer 16 2024 33%16 2024 17%2024-2026 136/139.93/161.57 2024 PE 16 2024 03 31 P.18 32%2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 53,651 62,356 70,792 80,502 90,802 YoY%8.8 16.2 13.5 13.7 12.8 7,590 10,236 13,600 13,993 16,157 YoY%-1.7 34.9 32.9 2.9 15.5 EPS 2.68 3.61 4.80 4.94 5.70%21.8 20.1 23.3 21.2 21.6 P/E 28.2 20.9 15.7 15.3 13.2 P/B 5.6 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.6 Wind 2024 3 28 1=0.91 4.2 2023 7%22%2023 7%275.98/+0.6%/+30%/+0.9%48.4%21.6%32 4.2pcts 11.5%45%2022 30%2023 2024 2023 2024 1 2024 2023/+68/-123 1498/4742 2024 90%2024 2024 2 2023/40%/25%/2023 IP IP 1200 2024 2023 30%-40%2023 120 1428 2024 2024 2024 2024-2026 34.21/38.57/43.50 24 PE 14 2024 03 31 P.19 33%2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 25,803 27,598 29,368 32,351 35,592 YoY%14.3 7.0 6.4 10.2 10.0 4,064 3,187 3,421 3,857 4,350 YoY%1.3-21.6 7.4 12.7 12.8 EPS 1.57 1.23 1.32 1.49 1.68%16.7 13.1 12.3 12.2 12.1 P/E 12.0 15.3 14.2 12.6 11.2 P/B 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 Wind 2024 3 28 1=0.91 4.3 2024 2023 11%12%2023 10.9%143.5 1.2pcts 42.2%0.1pcts 7.2%11.8%10.3 50%2023 7.4%119.5 0.7pcts 42%15.8%2024 1+2023 6571 258 2024 160X 2024 2023 1703 183+2 2024 2023Q4 4-4.5 2022Q4 5.5 2023Q3 4.5-5 2024 2023 98.9%8 6pcts 1.1%2023 2023 14.3%16 2pcts-11.5%2024 2024 13%2024 1 2024 10%+2024-2026 11.67/13.33/15.13 2024 03 31 P.20 2024 PE 10 34%2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 12,930 14,346 15,926 17,901 19,842 YoY%29.1 10.9 11.0 12.4 10.8 922 1,030 1,167 1,333 1,513 YoY%1.5 11.8 13.3 14.3 13.4 EPS 0.35 0.39 0.44 0.50 0.57%11.0 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.7 P/E 12.6 11.3 10.0 8.7 7.7 P/B 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 Wind 2024 3 28 1=0.91 4.4 361 24 2023/21%/29%2023+21.0%84.2+0.6pcts 41.1%+28.7%9.6+0.7pcts 11.4%361+2023 17%63.3/23%/9.8%/43%1 2023 5734 254 2 2023 361 futrue1.5 3 361 2023 36%19.6 361 2023 2545 257 12%+361 2023 2023 38%23.3 361 2023 14 93 2 4.5-5 2023 4.08 7%2024/19%/20%2024 2024 20%2024 03 31 P.21 2024-2026 11.6/13.6/15.8 24 PE 7 35 361%2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 6,961 8,423 10,017 11,598 13,354 YoY%17.3 21.0 18.9 15.8 15.1 747 961 1,158 1,362 1,580 YoY%24.2 28.7 20.4 17.7 16.0 EPS 0.36 0.46 0.56 0.66 0.76%8.7 10.7 11.4 11.8 12.1 P/E 11.5 9.0 7.4 6.3 5.5 P/B 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Wind 2024 3 28 1=0.91 5.2024 03 31 P.22“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 555 22 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
