|2024 04 16 2009-2011 2017-2018 R22 300%144%2017-2018 6-9 1%-2%/50%R290 2016 426 R1234yf R1234yf 40/7/2024 40%37%26%50%62%404/443/567/584 S0680522080002 S0680518020002 1 TMA 2024-04-14 2 2024-03-31 3 2024-03-24 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 600160.SH 0.88 0.38 0.75 1.46 26.28 60.87 30.84 15.84 603379.SH-0.80 0.54 1.12 1.51 35.78 79.56 38.51 28.58 605020.SH-1.11 0.66 1.58 2.22 35.45 37.94 15.71 11.20 00189.HK-1.73 0.32 0.67 0.81 4.49 16.30 9.45 7.76 600378.SH 1.28 1.04 1.30 1.86 24.92 30.67 24.54 17.15 600673.SH-0.41-0.10 0.42 0.57 21.07-75.06 21.55 15.59 Wind Wind-48%-32%-16%0%16%2023-04 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 300 2024 04 16 P.2 1.4 2.6 2.1.6 2.1.1.7 2.1.2.9 2.2.11 2.3.13 3.15 3.1.15 3.2.17 3.3.18 3.3.1.50%.18 3.3.2.21 3.4.22 3.4.1.22 3.4.2.23 3.5.24 4.27 5.28 1 R22.4 2.5 3 GWP ODP.6 4.7 5.7 6.7 7 2022.7 8 GWP.8 9.8 10.9 11 2004 R1234yf.10 12.10 13/kg.11 14.11 15.12 16.13 17.14 18 2022/.14 19 2030/.14 20.15 21.16 1ZEVyRnQoNnMsMoNsPtMrQ8OaO9PpNnNnPrNiNrRtPjMoPyR6MnMtNvPqMqRwMoNzQ 2024 04 16 P.3 22 2024.17 23.17 24 R22 2013.17 25 2024.17 26.18 27.18 28/.19 29 R134a.20 30 R32.20 31 R125.20 32 R1410a.20 33 2023 HFCs.21 34 2023.21 35.21 36.21 37.22 38.23 39.23 40.23 41 G.24 42 R134a.24 43.25 44.25 45.26 46.26 47/.27 48.27 2024 04 16 P.4 1.R22+300%+144%2009 7-2011 3 R22 300%2017-2018 R22 144%2010 236%456%169%245%2017 316%1 R22 Wind 2007 12 10 6-9 2014 2017 6 R404A 9 R134a 6 R410a R407C 8 2017-2018 R32 3-4/70/40/0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%05000100001500020000250003000035000400002006/1/1 2008/1/1 2010/1/1 2012/1/1 2014/1/1 2016/1/1 2018/1/1R22/XcX8XQBADvmyp/q78J6cH8iCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfYdkrB9QSOFDsB4m4RY0vHu 2024 04 16 P.5 2 European Commission 2024 04 16 P.6 2.2.1.ODP GWP CFC R12 HCFC R22 HFC R32 HFO R1234yf 3 GWP ODP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2006_WMO TRANSITIONING TO LOW-GWP ALTERNATIVES IN DOMESTIC REFRIGERATION_EPA Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcin_IPCC 2024 2029 10%2025 67.5%2030 2.5%1090047502310181072548003350317014306771386 400.20.40.60.811.2020004000600080001000012000GWP(ODP 2024 04 16 P.7 4 5 1830s CFC 1930s R717 R600a R290 R744 6 7 2022 Patterson Plumbing&Heating CEMAC 2.1.1 GWP GWP R600a R134a GWP GWP GWP R600a R290 R717 0%20%40%60%80%100%2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040A2 A5 0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2023 2027 2031 2035 2039 2043 2047 1 2 1 2 2024 04 16 P.8 8 GWP Danfoss R600a R290 R744 CO2 R717 NH3 R290 R290 9 R290 R600a R744 R717 CO2 NH3/-42.1-11.7-78.4-33.3/96.7 134.7 31.3 132.2/Mpa 4.23 3.6 7.4 11.3 GWP 3 3 1 0 Danfoss TRANSITIONING TO LOW-GWP ALTERNATIVES IN DOMESTIC REFRIGERATION_EPA R600a R600a ASHRAE A3 R600a 50g 0 R600a 2024 04 16 P.9 R744 CO2 R744 R744 R134a 5-10 R134a 8 R744 CO2 31.1 R717 R717 10 _ R290 A3 R290 A3 A3 R290 R22 R22 R22 R290 2011 R290 R290 2019 5 IEC A3 150 500 R290 R290 R290 2.1.2 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%R404A R290 R600a R134a 2024 04 16 P.10 2003 R1234yf 2004 HFO-1234yf 2004-2008 2008 Seidel 2023-2025 11 2004 R1234yf 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2-1,1,1,2-3 4 3 4 1 1 16 1,1,1,2,3-4 4 1 1 4 1 15 1,1,1,2,2-3 2 1 6 1-2,3,3,3-1 2 1 1 5 2-2,3,3,3-1 2 3 1,1-2,2,3,3,3-2 2 2-1,1,1,3-1 1 2 HFO-1234yf_ R134a HFC-134a 1990 1999 21 Continuting Applications R1234yf 2010 R1234yf 2016 R1234yf 1990s 2000s R134a 12 CEMAC 2024 04 16 P.11 2.2.R1234yf 5/40 R32 2/15 R1234yf R32 R1234yf 2017 1 GWP150 R134a GWP R1234yf HFO 50%19%R1234yf EPA 2017 18 R1234yf 219 685 213%2019 1000 2018 R1234yf R134a 13/kg 14 European Commission Ecotechnics 2%1.5P 2999 R32 840g R32 2.6/21.8 0.73%5/1.40%R1234yf ET7 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%HFO()R134a 2024 04 16 P.12 38.86 R1234yf 1kg 40 400 0.1%2022 28.61%2,999 858.01 R32 2.9 24.36 3.5 5 7 9/29.4 42.0 58.8 75.6 28.4%28.0%27.5%26.9%210%9/51 15 R32/g 1 2.90 840 24.36 1.14%2140.99 858.01 28.61%2 3.50 840 29.40 1.37%2146.03 852.97 28.44%3 5.00 840 42.00 1.95%2158.63 840.37 28.02%4 7.00 840 58.80 2.70%2175.43 823.57 27.46%5 9.00 840 75.60 3.45%2192.23 806.77 26.90%Wind/R454B R410a R32 R1234yf R1234yf R134a R1234yf R22 R32/R410a 2024 04 16 P.13 16 R410a R32+R125 R454B R32+R1234yf R22/R134a R404 R125+R134a+R143a R448a R32+R125+R134a+R1234yf/R449a R32+R125+R134a+R1234yf R134a R404 R125+R134a+R143a R1234yf R1234ze R134a R410a R32+R125 R513a R134a+R1234yf R515b R227ze+R1234ze/R1233zd R134a/R22 R407c R32+R125+R134a R513a R134a+R1234yf R1234yf R508b R32+R116 R469a R744+R125+R32 R472a R744+R134a+R32 R134a/R22/R245fa R513a R134a+R1234yf R515b R227ze+R1234ze/R1233zd*2.3.HFO-1234yf GWP HFC R134a 2016 R1234yf 160/lb 35/R1234yf/R134 60/lb 13/2017 R134a R1234yf 2026 30/lb R1234yf/R134a 20/lb 4.4/2024 04 16 P.14 17 CEMAC R1234yf 4 R22 90%2022/1.0/1.4/6.0/29.3/92.3/1.0 1.32/65%2.03/2030 2.5%90%2%2030 125.6 1.1/67.1/57.4 3.49/5.37/18 2022/19 2030/2024 04 16 P.15 3.50%40%3.1.R32 R134a R125 83%R143a R152a R227ea R245fa R32 R125 R32 R125 R410a R32 R125 R134a R1234yf R143a R152a R142b-VDF-PVDF R227ea R245fa-60 R508b-87 0 R245fa 15.1 R22-40.8 R404A-46.2 R407C-43.6 R410A-51.4 20 2024 04 16 P.16 2009.07-2011.03 R22 4+300%2017.01-2018.12 R22 2.4+144%R22 2007-2008 2021H2 R22-2013 2015 2020 17 R22 21 Wind 2024 04 16 P.17 3.2.2024 1 1 40%2023 R32/R125/R134a 44.0/28.7/37.0 65%23.96/16.57/21.57 46%/42%/54%2017 22 2024 23 ETC 2013 2024 2013 R22 26%19%18%6%6%CR5 74.4%37%16%14%10%7%CR5 84.5%51%75%CR5 78%24 R22 2013 25 2024 01020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 R32/R125/R134a/01000020000300004000050000600002007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 HFC 2024 04 16 P.18 26 R22 HFC CR1 26.21%37.39%CR2 44.82%53.09%CR3 63.21%66.82%CR4 68.90%77.06%CR5 74.44%84.46%13 19 51%3.3.50%54%29%42%16.2%3.3.1.50%50%R143a R125 2013 42.64 66%34%R22 R142b R141b 68%79%58%50%74.56 46%R32 R134a R125 R143a 59%38%36%25%27 2013 2024 04 16 P.19 2024 2 R125 R143a R143a R134a R32 R410a 156%117%125%124%22 28/Wind R134a 2017 R134a 2024-2025 F-gas 2017 1 1 GWP150 R134a R134a R32 2019-2023 R32 4.5/4.8/4.5/6.0/5.0 9.8 R32 2023 R32 2019 2023 R32 40%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%120%2022 1 2022 5 2022 9 2023 1 2023 5 2023 9 2024 1 R134a/R32/R410a/2024 04 16 P.20 29 R134a 30 R32 R125 2023 R125 2.25 R410a R32 R125=1 1 9.35 R125 R410a R125 R410a 31 R125 32 R1410a 2024-2025 2024 2025 2029 2032 2024 04 16 P.21 33 2023 HFCs 34 2023 3.3.2.40%HFC 2023 60%HFCs 2014-2023 4.4%10-6%35 36 _ 90%16 23%9%60%16%130%24%149%217%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 04 16 P.22 37 MEKKO GRAPHICS 3.4.3.4.1.31%12 2023 1.5 64.5%R32 1.5 840g 2020-2022 1.48 12.43 40.53 R32+R125 31%2016 2358 2022 5085 6049 8430 2030 12 12 6000 2023 9000 11-13 2023 2010-2012 2024 04 16 P.23 38 39 19%19%2022 1.63 0.92 40 Wind 3.4.2.R134a 81%R134a 61.7%R134a G 600-750g 600g 6000 2020-2022 2612 1.57 8.26 R134a R134a 6.69 81%0200040006000800010000120002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002018 2020 2022 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E 2032E 2034E 0204060801001201401601802013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 04 16 P.24 41 G g g G30 520i 600 10 G31 520i 600 10 520i S8R9A 600 15 520i S8R9A 600 15 530e 750 15 530i 600 10 530i 600 10 530i S8R9A 600 15 530iX 600 10 530iX 600 10 540i 600 10 530iX S8R9A 600 15 540iX 600 10 540iX 600 10 M550iX 650 15 540iX S8R9A 600 15 S8R9A R1234yf R134a R134a R134a 7.27%38.29%18.97%R134a 2022 5%R134a 42 R134a Wind 3.5.2024 R22 07-08 10-11 17-18 2023 1.7 2023 62%31%7%2024 04 16 P.25 43 2005-2023 1-7 8-11 44 R32 R410a R125 3 8 2018 5-6 3-4 2-3 R32 R410a R125+R32 R32 R125 R32 050010001500200025001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 04 16 P.26 45 46 3-5+17.3%/21.4%/15.9%+23.5%/18.6%/6.2%02004006008001000120014001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 020040060080010001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 04 16 P.27 4.79%3.54/2023 4 59%2023 7 1.98/79%47/Wind 4 15 404 443 567 584 48 Wind 1500020000250003000035000400002023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03/标的 总配额当前市值（亿元）单位市值配额（吨/亿 元）R 3 2 配 额（万吨）R 1 2 5 配 额（万吨）R 1 3 4 a 配额（万吨）巨化股份 25.21 624.45 403.74 9.59 5.73 6.87三美股份 11.71 264.28 442.98 2.78 3.15 5.15中化蓝天 8.40-0.00 2.39 4.88东岳集团 7.64 134.73 566.71 4.73 1.49 0.69永和股份 5.52 94.50 584.37 0.58 0.64 1.09东阳光 4.80 270.04 177.65 2.7 1.7 0.43 2024 04 16 P.28 5.2024 04 16 P.29“”“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 555 22 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033