20240326_海通证券_商业贸易行业海内外估值对比研究：PS_PEG_股息率现金流估值_22页.pdf
Table_MainInfo/2024 03 25 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo 2908.273135.263362.253589.233816.224043.212023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 Table_ReportInfo 1-2 5.5%2024.03.24 COSTCO 2024.03.21 2024.03.18 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(021)23154125 Email:S0850517040002:Tel:(021)23219399 Email:S0850511040005:祎 Tel:(021)23185687 Email:S0850523080001:Tel:(021)23185703 Email:Tel:(021)23183110 Email:Email:PE-PEG-/Table_Summary PS PEG GDP PS PEG 1 Costco PE。PEG PE 7-11 PE PE PS 2 2003 PE 1998-2011 CAGR PE 10%12 PE PEG 2021 PE 25 PE 2022 4 2022 5 PE PMAU PARPU PS PGMV PE PEG P/MAU P/ARPU PS PGMV PE PEG PCF PS PE PCF/PFCF PGMV PS PE PEG PS PE PS 2021 2020-2023 7-11 2%50%PE 20-25 A 2020-2022 4%PE 2024 10 3 22+1 2+2 1.PS-PEG-.6 1.1 PS PEG.6 1.2 PMAU PARPU PS PGMVPE PEG 6 2.9 2.1.9 2.1.1 Costco.9 2.1.2.10 2.1.3.11 2.1.4 7-11.12 2.1.5.13 2.2.14 2.2.1.14 2.2.2-SW-SW.15 2.3.17 2.3.1.17 2.3.2.18 2.3.3.19 2.3.4.19 2.3.5.20 XVFUvMmRnOpOsMsRmRoRpO9PaO8OmOrRsQsOfQpPmPeRpNtNaQpPxPMYrNwPuOnPyQ 3 1 GDP 1960-2022.6 2 GDP 1978-2022.6 3.7 4 A.7 5 A 2021.7 6 Costco FY1993-2023.9 7 Costco FY1994-2023.9 8 Costco PE 1992-2023.10 9 Costco 2008-2023.10 10 FY1990-2023.10 11 CAPEX CAPEX/OCF Div/OCF FY1987-2023.10 12 PE 1990-2023.11 13 1987-2023.11 14 13.11 15 05-15 15.11 16 PE 07-15 15-20 x 15 20-30 x.12 17 07-12 1%13 0.6%.12 18 7-11.12 19 7-11.12 20 7-11 PE.13 21 7-11.13 22.13 23.13 24 PE.14 25.14 26.14 27 PS.15 28 PE.15 29 2015.15 30 2019 PCF/PFCF.15 4 31%.16 32 Non-GAAP%.16 33 PS TTM%.16 34 PE TTM%.16 35 PS TTM%.17 36 PS TTM%.17 37.17 38.17 39 3 PE 22 17.5 25.5.18 40 2 0.9%2.6%.18 41 2011.18 42.18 43 2 PE 12 24.5.18 44 3 1.3%2.8%1.6%.18 45%FY92-FY23.19 46 PE 92/06-23/12.19 47 FY00-FY23.19 48 09/11-23/12.19 49 2 PE/76 35.20 50 2023.20 51 2021.20 52 2021.20 53.21 6aY3/+AHSCd9goovsqydNLzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVnzzZVkC74xDQe9QcuRQ/hf 5 1 A 35.7 2.8 3.8 4 A 2020-2022.8 6 1.PS-PEG-1.1 PS PEG GDP 5%1973-1974 1979-1980 GDP 3%21 GDP 2%GDP PEG PS 1 GDP 1960-2022 U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis 2 GDP 1978-2022 U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis PS PE PEG 1.2 PMAU PARPU PS PGMV PE PEG P/MAU P/ARPU MAU ARPU DAU MAU ARPU APP P/MAU PS PGMV PE PS P/GMV PE PEG PCF 2015-2020 2015-2020 CAGR 24.65%15.1%33%60.01%79.07%13.4/7.9/10.6/3.1/2021 7 82%3 CNNIC Wind 1.3 A 35 2013 1 A 35 Wind 4 A Wind 5 A 2021 Wind 8 2-SW 2022 3 22 150 250 2023 11 16 2023 25-SW 2021 12 29 20 30 2023 3 9 0.31 0.62-W 2023 11 29 10 FY2020-2023 7-11 2%50%PE 20-25 3 FY2020-2023 Bloomberg 202403 WMT FY21-24 COST A 2020-2022 4%PE 2024 10 Table_PicPe 4 A 2020-2022 2020 2021 2022 12 TTM 2020-222020 2021 20222020-222024YOY%PE2024 PBLF 600729.SH 121 12.8 14.6 2.9 2.3 10.1 143 153 31 108.9 11.2 8.2 1.1600327.SH 37 18.1 10.1 1.4 1.7 9.9 211 83 36 109.7 16.8 16.2 1.2601086.SH 36 2.8 15.2 2.2 1.9 6.7 79 462 56 199.2-2.2002818.SZ 102 4.2 6.4 8.9 8.0 6.5 58 65 103 75.6 12.6 11.0 1.8605098.SH 51-3.9 6.8 6.4 5.4 0 109 213 107.2 28.8 18.1 5.7600694.SH 50 3.0 10.3 2.8 2.9 5.3 34 81 26 47.1 8.7 7.8 0.6002416.SZ 152 5.4 4.0 5.3 4.1 4.9 71 60 85 72.0 14.5 17.4 2.6600710.SH 102 4.5 4.1 5.1 3.8 4.5 60 45 43 49.3 17.7 8.5 1.5002345.SZ 57 4.9 3.6 3.8 3.1 4.1 127 51 89 89.0 23.2 11.9 1.6600655.SH 242 3.7 3.4 4.6 5.6 3.9 35 35 35 35.3 59.8 7.5 0.7600790.SH 55 3.0 4.6 3.7 4.2 3.7 37 51 19 35.7-0.9002867.SZ 201 2.3 4.5 4.3 4.9 3.7 43 71 60 58.0 18.9 12.1 3.3605599.SH 108-2.7 4.5 3.3 3.6 0 77 78 51.6 16.1 13.1 3.0002697.SZ 66 1.3 1.7 7.9 9.1 3.6 23 25 124 57.1 8.4 11.5 1.7600828.SH 59 2.7 4.2 3.8 4.4 3.6 81 63 76 73.6-0.8002091.SZ 112 4.8 1.8 2.9 3.6 3.2 56 32 24 37.3 0.0 0.0 0.8600612.SH 387 2.8 3.2 3.4 2.0 3.1 41 40 45 42.2 18.7 14.7 3.3600697.SH 18 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.5 3.0 280 225-40 155.0 11.1 91.2 0.8601010.SH 40 4.9 3.7 0.0 0.0 2.9 100 99 0 66.4-0.9000026.SZ 45 3.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 59 32 39 43.5 15.4 11.7 1.4%2024 WIND Wind 20240322 9 2.2.1 2.1.1 Costco Costco 1983 2023 9 14 861 FY1985-2023 CAGR 13%14%Costco FY1992-2002 Costco CAGR 11%PE 15-40 FY2000-2002 Costco 10 FY2003 FY2004 7 1.6%-2.0%FY2002-2014 CAGR 9%PE 20-30 FY2015 Costco PE 30 50 FY2015 FY2014-2023 CAGR 9%CAGR 13%PE 30 50 FY2015 2.0%2017 FY2023 2.6%PE 2021 3 2020/03 2020/12 2021/03 CPI 2021 3 1.6%2022 6%Costco PE 50 2022 3 2022 2-3 Costco PE 35-40 Costco FY2013/2015/2017/2021/2024 7/5/7/10/15 Costco FY2004-2009 1%FY2010-2018 3%FY2019-2023 2%6 Costco FY1993-2023 Bloomberg Costco 7 Costco FY1994-2023 Bloomberg Costco 10 8 Costco PE 1992-2023 Bloomberg Costco 9 Costco 2008-2023 Bloomberg Costco 2.1.2 FY1991 326 321 1991 FY1991-2000 8 1004 FY2000 2985 1004 21 2000-2008 CR4/CR8/CR20 29%/43%/55%38%/51%/65%FY1990-2006/CAGR 17%/16%/FY1990 25%/29%FY2006 8%/9%PEG 1.0 FY2007 0.5%FY2007-2023 CAGR 0.2%FY2007 FY2007 0.5%FY2007-2023 2%FY2000-2007 CAPEX 61.8 156.7 14.2%CAPEX/OCF 78%Div/OCF 10-20%FY2009 CAPEX 115.0 FY2009-2023 CAPEX/OCF 46%FY2009-2023 Div/OCF 30-60%FY1997-2023 10%50%FY1987-2006 0.5%FY2007-2023 2%10 FY1990-2023 Bloomberg 11 CAPEX CAPEX/OCF Div/OCF(FY1987-2023)Bloomberg 11 12 PE 1990-2023 Bloomberg 13 1987-2023 Bloomberg 2.1.3 1978 1998 20 90+FY2005-2015+FY2006 FY2007 FY2005-2015/CAGR 11.38%/12.45%CAPEX FY2006 67.6 FY2015 466.3 CAPEX/OCF 100%PE 10-20 x FY2016-2023+FY2018 QSI FY2019 UNY CAPEX FY2006 CAPEX 400-600 CAPEX/OCF 40%PE 20-30 x 2007-2012 1%2013 0.6%14 13 Bloomberg 15 05-15 15 Bloomberg 12 16 PE 07-15 15-20 x 15 20-30 x Bloomberg 17 07-12 1%13 0.6%Bloomberg 2.1.4 7-11 1973 11 YOKESEVEN 1978 1 7-11 5 7-11 1974 330 12 7-11 100 1978 500 1990 1993 7-11 2003 7-11 21.8%29.3%53.2%59.5%FY2006-2014 7-Premium 7-Rakuraku FY2006-2014/CAGR 4.7%/4.2%/4.7%PE 20-40 x FY2015-2020/CAGR 2.8%/3.8%/3.8%PE 20-25x FY2021-2023/CAGR 21.1%/6.1%/4.1%PE 20-25x FY2009-2012 2.5%-2.8%FY2015 FY2017 2%18 7-11 BLOOMBERG 7-11 19 7-11 BLOOMBERG 7-11 13 20 7-11 PE BLOOMBERG 21 7-11 BLOOMBERG 2.1.5 2023 6 1008 783 29 2007-2019 CAGR 30%CAGR 23%2020 2021/2022+2022 PE 49 PEG 1.1-1.2 2021 PS 0.3-0.4 2015 11%2016 2%0.5%2012 2015 2018 6.6 2022 22 Wind 23 Wind 14 24 PE Wind 25 Wind 2.2 2.2.1 1997-2001 2002-2015 2016 PS 10-40 PS PE P/MAU PS 2005-2015 PS TTM 1.0-3.0 2016 AWS PE PEG 2015 2019 PCF/PFCF 2019-PCF 20.0-30.0 26 Bloomberg 15 27 PS Bloomberg 28 PE Bloomberg 29 2015 Bloomberg 30 2019 PCF/PFCF Bloomberg 2.2.2-SW-SW 2018 73.6%2020 79.1%2023 6 81.9%Non-GAAP 1-SW FY2012-2016 GMV CAGR 47%CAGR 49.8%PGMV FY2016-2018 GMV CAGR 24.9%GMV CAGR 55.8%PS 2015-2017 PS TTM 12.0-15.0 x 2018-2020 Non-GAAP PE PE TTM 25-35x 2020&Non-GAAP PE TTM 8-12x 2-SW Non-GAAP PE PS PGMV 16 31%Wind 32 Non-GAAP%Wind 33 PS TTM%Wind 34 PE TTM%Wind 17 35 PS TTM%Wind 36 PS TTM%Wind 2.3 2.3.1 1967 1968 1000 2002 31108 CAGR 10.6%2003 PE 22 1996 PE 4Q02 2003 2003 2015 2003-22 CAGR 1.4%1986-96 CAGR 12%2003-15 2015-22 CAGR 10%6%PE 17.5 25.5 2003 1%2.6%37 Bloomberg 38 Bloomberg 18 39 3 PE 22 17.5 25.5 Bloomberg 40 2 0.9%2.6%Bloomberg 2.3.2 2012 2012-2013 2016 2011 1998-2011 2011-22 CAGR 10%-1.6%PE 12 24.5 PE 2004 1.3%2.8%2017 1.6%412011 Bloomberg 42 Bloomberg 43 2 PE 12 24.5 Bloomberg 44 3 1.3%2.8%1.6%Bloomberg 19 2.3.3 2016 20%2008 5%-10%20%2002 30%-60%2008-2009 10%PEG PE 45%FY92-FY23 FY99 FY13 46 PE 92/06-23/12 Bloomberg FY99 FY13 2016-2018 2017 2016 10%2018 1.5%2.0%47 FY00-FY23 Bloomberg 48 09/11-23/12 Bloomberg 2.3.4 2021 PE 60 2021 PE 25 2H21 1H23 1H21 13%1H21 6%2021 10%2023 20 49 2 PE/76 35 Bloomberg 50 2023 Bloomberg 51 2021 Bloomberg 52 2021 Bloomberg 2.3.5 2022 4 2022 5 1Q22 90%4.1%2022 PE 20-30 21 Table_PicPe 53 Bloomberg+1 2+22 Table_Analysts 祎 Table_Reports,-SW,-W,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%
