20240403_招商证券_非银行金融行业上市险企2023年报综述：寿险趋势性复苏财险阶段性波动关注资产端边际变化_22页.pdf
|2024 04 03 2023/2023 2024 2023 2023 NBV+65.1%+36.2%+30.8%27.8%14.0%1 63.1%+14.2pt 48.7%+18.2pt 38.3%+9.6pt 27.2%+4.9pt+2 2023 63.4-5.1%34.7-22.0%23.5-40.0%19.9-17.4%15.5-21.3%13 2023 5158.07+6.3%3021.60+1.4%1883.42+11.4%5.5%+19.3%+7.4%-8.7%COR 97.7%+0.8pt 97.8%+1.2pt 4.2%-0.5pt 4.0%-0.3pt 3.7%-0.3pt 3.6%-0.3pt 3.4%-1.2pt 2 3.3%-1.3pt 3.0%+0.6pt 2.7%+1.5pt 2.6%-1.5pt 2.4%-1.5pt 1.8%-2.5pt 3 FVOCI 5.0%+2.7pt 3.6%+0.9pt 2.7%+0.4pt%86 1.7 4360.0 5.6 4070.2 5.9%1m 6m 12m-3.5-12.1-8.9-4.7-9.2 2.7 1 202403312024-03-31 2 20240324 2024-03-24 3 2024 2 2024-03-20 S1090516020001-30-20-1001020Apr/23 Jul/23 Nov/23 Mar/24(%)非银行金融 沪深300 2 1 2023+44.1%-10.2%-22.8%-27.1%-30.7%-34.2%-59.5%Q4 19.10 8.30 2 2023 58.0%+15.0pt 37.3%+7.8pt 36.0%-3.9pt 30.4%-3.9pt 30.3%+0.2pt 17.4%-4.3pt 5.9%4.3%4.3%3.0%2.8%1.5%EV 2023 5.0%4.5%10%-11%8%9%9.5%2023+2.4%+2.4%+1.9%+1.6%-2.0%-2.4%NBV-10.2%-20.1%-24.4%-8.9%-20.8%2024 2024 Q1 NBV ROE FCF 2024 2023 0YAZwPsPsRrQpRmPmRoRmNbR8Q7NsQoOmOsOiNpPrNlOrRoRaQnMnNvPoOmONZsRoM 3 2023.6 1.6 1 NBV.6 2“+”.7 3.9 4.10 2.11 1.11 2 COR.11 3.13 1.13 2.14 4.16 1 ROE.16 2.17 3.18 5.18.20.20 1 NBV.6 2 2023 NBV.6 3 NBV Margin.7 4.8 5/.8 6/.8 7.8 8 NBV.8 4 9.8 10.9 11 NBV/.9 12 2023 NBV.10 13 13.10 14 25.10 15.10 16.11 17 2023.11 18.11 19.11 20.12 21 2023.12 22.12 23.12 24 2023.12 25 2023.12 26 2023.13 27.13 28.14 29.14 30.14 31.14 32.14 33.14 34 2023.15 35 2023.15 36 2023.15 37 2023.15 38 2023.16 39.16 40 Q4.16 RZgqArGzlrHzDCiByEjX8MiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfZ8lm6Raldit3RHMaRrKkL6 5 41.17 42 ROE.17 43.17 44.17 45/.18 46.18 47.19 48 NBV EV.19 1.7 2.9 3 2023 EV.19 6 2023 1 1 NBV 2023 2023 7 3.5%3.0%2023 NBV+65.1%+36.2%+30.8%27.8%14.0%23H2+390.4%+43.9%+29.6%+27.3%-0.9%2024 1 NBV 2 2023 NBV 1 2 2023 1 2 2023 1 2023 2108.13+14.1%1657.84+38.9%+3.7%409.00+5.4%+24.3%2 2023 NBV MARGIN 23.7%-0.4pt 19.9%+1.2pt 19.5%14.3%+3.0pt 8.9%+3.4pt 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0100200300400500 2021A 2022A 2023A 2023yoy-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2023H1yoy 2023H2yoy 7 1 2022A 2023A yoy 1847.67 2108.13 14.1%964.26 1125.73 16.7%NBV 1193.36 1657.84 38.9%703.52 899.76 27.9%-3.7%197.92 261.75 32.3%388.05 409.00 5.4%178.61 235.38 31.8%-24.3%176.15 199.59 13.3%3 NBV Margin 2023 2+3.0 51 2023 63.1%+14.2pt 48.7%+18.2pt 38.3%+9.6pt 27.2%+4.9pt 19.5%-2.3pt 18.2%-2.7pt 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2021A 2022A 2023A 8 4 5/6/7 2023 2022 20.0%7 5 1.5 3.9 NBV 2021 31%73%8 1.58+8 NBV 9 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021A 2022A 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021A 2022A 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021A 2022A 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2021A 2022A 2023A 9 3 2023 63.4-5.1%34.7-22.0%23.5-40.0%19.9-17.4%15.5-21.3%2023+28.6%+25.2pt+39.2%+26.6%+46.3%+0.8pt+94.4%14410+5.3%10 11 NBV/1 2 2023 1 2023+60.5%+45.5%+39.4%+69.1%+170.2%NBV+217.2%+12.9t 21.4%NBV+77.7%+2.2pt 9.3%2 2023 1.5 51 65 13 5.4pt 13 2 2022A 2023A yoy 148.79 207.35 39.4%106.96 180.91 69.1%33.40 90.24 170.2%77.48 124.37 60.5%116.43 169.38 45.5%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%0153045607590 2021A 2022A 2023A 2023yoy0%80%160%240%01,5003,0004,5006,0007,5009,000 2021A 2022A 2023A 2023yoy 10 12 2023 NBV 4 13 2023 13 14 96.2%+3.2pt 95.7%+7.7pt 92.8%+2.5pt 90.4%+7.4pt 89.8%+7.2pt 25 26 90.0%-1.8pt 85.8%+6.8pt 84.0%+10.6pt 79.1%+4.9pt 78.4%+1.2pt 2.1%1.9%+0.1pt 1.8%1.1%+0.2pt 13 13 14 25 14 26 15 0%5%10%15%20%25%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021A 2022A 2023A0%20%40%60%80%100%2021A 2022A 2023A0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%2021A 2022A 2023A 11 2 1 2023 5158.07+6.3%3021.60+1.4%1883.42+11.4%2023 2856.26+5.3%55.4%2138.51+6.2%70.8%1035.14+5.6%55.0%+5.6%2301.81+7.4%883.09-8.7%848.28+19.3%16 17 2023 18 19 2 COR 2023 COR 97.7%+0.8pt 97.8%+1.2pt 100.7%+1.1pt 69.1%+1.1pt 70.6%+1.2pt 71.5%+0.2pt 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2023yoy55.4%70.8%55.0%44.6%29.2%45.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2023yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05001,0001,5002,0002,500 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2023yoy 12 27.2%28.6%-0.3pt 29.2%+0.9pt 20 21 2023 2023 96.9%+2.4pt 97.6%+1.1pt 97.7%97.7%99.1%-1.1pt 106.7%5.5pt 131.1%23Q4 22 23 24 2023 25 2023 94%95%96%97%98%99%100%101%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 70.6%71.5%69.1%27.2%29.2%28.6%0%20%40%60%80%100%90%92%94%96%98%100%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 90%95%100%105%110%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 95.8%97.7%107.0%103.8%95.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%95.2%106.0%106.3%97.7%131.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%13 26 2023 3 1 2023 56592.50+17.6%47222.28+9.0%22500.73+11.3%14331.31+11.4%13360.92+15.4%13495.32+14.9%27 2023 1 78.3%75.6%74.5%72.8%72.7%64.5%2 10%8.4%-3.5pt 8.4%-0.6pt 7.9%+0.8pt 7.6%-1.4pt 6.2%+0.9pt 3.2%-1.1pt 3 2.7%1.8%-0.1pt 1.1%-0.1pt 0.7%-0.1pt 0.5%-0.1pt 0.2%-0.1pt 98.8%99.2%100.6%97.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0%5%10%15%20%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2023yoy 14 28 29 30 31 32 33 2 2023 2.56%28bp N 2023 4.5%-0.6pt 4.2%-0.5pt 4.0%-0.3pt 3.7%-0.3pt 3.6%-0.3pt 3.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 0%20%40%60%80%100%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 15-1.2pt 34 2023 35 2023 Wind 2022H1 2023H1 2023 300 11.38%AFS FVTPL FVOCI 3.3%-1.3pt 3.0%+0.6pt 2.7%+1.5pt 2.6%-1.5pt 2.4%-1.5pt 1.8%-2.5pt FVOCI 36 2023 37 2023 Wind 2022H1 2023H1 FVOCI 2023 5.0%+2.7pt 3.6%+0.9pt 2.7%+0.4pt FVOCI FVOCI 2.4%2.5%2.6%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A2,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500 300 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 16 38 2023 2022H1 2023H1 4 1 ROE 2023 2023+44.1%-10.2%-22.8%-27.1%-30.7%-34.2%-59.5%Q4 19.10 8.30 H 2023 2022 39 40 Q4 ROE 2023 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A-90%-60%-30%0%30%60%02004006008001,0001,200 2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2023yoy-203080130180230 2022Q4 2023Q4 17+30.3%+5.5%+27.0%+8.8%+7.2%+3.4%-5.9%ROE 11.4%-7.8pt 9.7%-3.5pt 9.7%-7.6pt 9.6%-2.0pt 8.5%+1.2pt 7.9%41 42 ROE 2 1 2023 1179.89-19.7%2.8%207.47 65.1%2 2023 355.18-0.4%272.57+0.4%43 44-10%0%10%20%30%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000 2022A 2023H1 2023A 2023yoy0%5%10%15%20%2022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A0501001502002503003504002022H1 2022A 2023H1 2023A 18 3 2023 2.43/1.02/0.85/0.43/0.30/0.16/58.0%+15.0pt 37.3%+7.8pt 36.0%-3.9pt 30.4%-3.9pt 30.3%+0.2pt 17.4%-4.3pt 4 2 5.9%4.3%4.3%3.0%2.8%1.5%45/46 5 2023 5.0%4.5%10%-11%8%9%9.5%2023 13901.26 12605.67 5294.93 2721.23 2505.10 1239.65-2.4%+2.4%+1.9%+2.4%-2.0%+1.6%EV 2023-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0 2019A 2020A 2021A2022A 2023A 2023yoy0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 19 47 3 2023 EV 6.8%4.8%6.3%7.6%7.4%6.1%3.0%2.5%2.1%1.2%5.8%2.8%-3.3%-6.1%-4.2%-5.1%-5.8%-7.8%3.0%0.6%1.0%0.0%4.7%0.0%-6.0%-2.0%-4.2%-5.6%-8.0%0.0%-1.1%-3.1%-1.1%-1.3%0.0%-1.2%-0.1%0.3%0.5%1.1%-2.6%0.3%0.1%0.6%1.5%0.2%0.0%2.1%2.4%-2.4%1.9%-2.0%1.6%2.4%NBV EV 1 2022 2023 EV NBV 12932.69 410.35-2.5%-10.2%2 2022 2023 EV NBV 9301.60 392.62-10.7%-20.8%3 2022 2023 NBV 120.39-8.9%4 2022 2023 NBV 39.99-24.4%5 2022 2023 EV NBV 2625.88 93.96-6.6%-20.1%48 NBV EV-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000 2021A 2022A 2023A 2023yoy-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%NBV EV 20 2023 2023 NBV COR EV 2024 NBV 24Q1 NBV LPR 2024 NBV 2024 A ROE FCF 2024 2024 ROE 21 22 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%
