20240327_湘财证券_肺炎球菌疫苗行业报告：政策、需求、技术共促行业快速发展关注优势企业_21页.pdf
政 策、需 求、技 术 共促 行 业快 速 发展，关注 优 势企 业 相关研究：1.20221123 2.HPV 20220329 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-8-23-18-9-21-31 300 S0500517110001 Tel(8621)50293534 Email 88 10 2020 2015 33.68%2022 49%2015 82.07%2022 96.1%2021 85%2020 47%38 2023 60 21.2%WHO 2022 MR PCV TD-68%28%22%2022 HPV PCV 52%26%23%20%51%2016 2017 91.6%24 3 81.7%4 2017 69%65 1.23%-42.1%GBD 5 2019 PCV13 3 7.3%47.9%2021 PCV 12%2015 14 2022 100.3 32%2023-40-30-20-1001023/03 23/06 23/09 23/12 24/03 300_ _ 2024 03 27 2 105 2025 2030 192 438 23 90%13 2017 0%2020 60.87%2022 99%2023 85%2023 13 23 53.38%18.24%70%2024 3 22 24 2 PCV13 5 4 3 2 1+1 2 3 4 ZXBYuNtOmPpOtNoNsPpQoP8ObPbRsQrRnPrNlOrRmPjMpNzR6MmMwOvPmPtNxNrNvM 1 1.3 2.4 2.1.5 2.2+.7 2.2.1.7 2.2.2.8 2.2.3.9 2.3.9 2.4.12 3.14 3.1.14 3.2.15 4.18 5.18 2 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.5 5.8 6.8 7 2021.8 8.9 9.9 10.9 11.11 12.11 13 2021-2022.12 14 2021-2022.12 15.13 16.14 17 13 23.14 18 13.15 19 23.15 20 13.16 21 23.16 22 2023.16 23.18 1.6 2.10 3 PCV13 PPSV23.12 4 2021-2023 TOP10.13 5.15 6.17 7WmJfd5SEjlfNrelTPipJLzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVlYoM9zl7N4FLpsNdpmPtR6 3 1 90 1 pneumococcal diseases,PD IPD NIPD 2 WHO 2019 5 5 14%1-5 22%4 2000-2014 65 27.3%48%1881 Louis Pasteur G.M.Sternberg 5 Fraenkel 1983 23 PPV23 1988 WHO 2000 7 2010 13 PCV13 2016 3 1881 Louis Pasteur G.M.Sternberg 1940 1886 Fraenkel 1983 23 PPV23 1988 WHO 2000 7 2010 13 PCV13 2016 PCV13 WHO 2 80%5 4 2.1 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021 2021 11 12 18 2022 6 DNA mRNA 2022 2022-2035,1 2016 2030 2017 2018 2019 2019 2019-2030 15 2020 2020 2020 7 2021 2021 11 12 18 2021 2022 DNA mRNA HPV 2022 2022 2022-2035,2.2+2.2.1 2015 33.68%2021 48%2015 14.32 2022 49%2015 82.07%2021 96.1%2015 14.03 2022 96.1%2021 4 85%2020 47%38 8 5 6 2.2.2 2021 59.5 17.4 28.1 7.1 7 2021 2018 2021 2018 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E2024E2025E 0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 7.159.528.117.41.9010203040506070 9 8 9 2.2.3 2023 60 21.2%10 Wind 2.3 DNA mRNA 0204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 60 10 DNA mRNA 2/DNA DNA mRNA mRNA mRNA mRNA mRNA mRNA T B T 2 11 T 2 T 11 12 13 PCV13 23 PPV23 13 1 3 4 5 6A 6B 7F 9V 14 18C 19A 19F 23F 23 23 1 2 3 4 5 6B 7F 8 9N 9V 10A 11A 12F 14 15B 17F 18C 19A 19F 20 22F 23F 33F PCV13 2 PPSV23 65 12 3 PCV13 PPSV23 PCV13 PPSV23 1 3 4 5 6A 6B 7F 9V 14 18C 19A 19F 23F 1 2 3 4 5 6B 7F 8 9N 9V 10A 11A 12F 14 15B 17F 18C 19A 19F 20 22F 23F 33F 2016 1996 MSD 2006 6-5 2/65/+4 1 2.4 WHO 2022 MR PCV TD-68%28%22%2022 HPV PCV 52%26%23%20%13 2021-2022 14 2021-2022 WHO WHO 2023 HPV GSK 4 MSD 2 2021-2023 MSD HPV PCV13/20 GSK RSV 13 4 2021-2023 TOP10 2021 2022 2023 1 Gardasil HPV MSD 56.73 68.97 88.86 2 Prevnar13/20 52.72 63.37 64.40 3 Shingrix GSK 22.37 32.00 43.59 4 28.32 32.09 28.76 5 MMRV MSD 21.35 22.41 23.68 6 PPH 23.27 24.63 23.33 7 Arexvy RSV GSK 15.50 8 Bexsero GSK 8.20 9.50 10.71 9 Abrysvo RSV 8.90 10 Boostrix GSK 6.57 7.49 7.74 Vaccine 2015 14 2022 100.3 32%2023 105 2025 2030 192 438 15 WHO 2021 154 WHO 51%2016 2017 91.6%24 3 81.7%4 2017 69%65 0501001502002503003504004505002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 14 1.23%-42.1%GBD 5 2019 PCV13 3 7.3%47.9%2021 PCV 12%3 3.1 2023 148 13 89 18%23 59 28%13 23 13 2023 16 17 13 23 23 90%13 2022 13 99%2023 85%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202313 23 15 18 13 19 23 3.2 13 23 MSD 2023 9 13 2023 68.54%23 2023 30.51%20.34%5 1-13 13 2016.01 6-15 4 2 13 2019.12 6 5 4 3 13 2021.09 6 5 4 4 23 MSD 2002.05 2 1 5 23 2006.01 2 1 6 23 2017.03 2 1 7 23 2018.08 2 1 8-23 2020.12 2 1 9-23 2023.08 2 1 2024.03.22 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80%85%90%95%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 16 20 13 21 23 2023 13 23 53.38%18.24%70%22 2023 2024 3 22 24 2 5 2 PCV13 2 PCV13 2 PPSV23 1 PCV15 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023MSD 8.78%53.38%18.24%4.05%12.16%3.38%MSD 17 6 PCV13/1 PCV13 2 PCV13 3 PCV13 4 PCV13 5 PCV13 6 PCV13 7 PCV13 8 PCV13 9 PCV13 PPSV23/1 PPSV23 2 PPSV23 3 PPSV23/1 PCV15 2 PCV24 3 PCV20 4 PCV20 5 PBPV 6 PCV20 7 PCV24 8 9 PCV20 10 PCV24 11 CS-2028 12 PCV20 2024.03.22 4 3 2 18 23 2024.03.22 4+5 1 2 3 4 00.511.522.533.544.5 湘财证券投资评级体 系（市场比较基准为沪深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明“”分析师声明
