20240326_华创证券_保险行业深度研究报告：险资配置思路与入市考量_20页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 03 26 2024 03 26 SAA TAA SAA DAA TAA SAA TAA SAA 1 2 3 TAA/SAA TAA 1 2 3 roe FVTPL FVOCI roe+EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 28.64 0.83 1.38 1.60 34.60 20.68 17.93 1.86 22.67 3.13 3.75 4.21 7.25 6.04 5.38 0.74 5.08 0.63 0.82 0.90 8.11 6.19 5.66 0.86 30.66 4.05 5.30 6.33 7.58 5.79 4.84 0.80 40.90 6.69 7.46 6.11 5.48 Wind 2024 3 26 021-20572556 S0360518060005%()6 0.00()21,049.49 2.41()14,473.14 2.12%1M 6M 12M-6.0%-16.4%-7.4%-8.6%-12.4%4.6%2024 2 2 2024-03-17 2024 1 1 2024-02-23 2024-01-28-21%-6%8%23%23/03 23/06 23/08 23/11 24/01 24/032023-03-272024-03-26 300 2009 1210 SAA TAA 1 2 3 FCOCI 20-50%FVOCI 5-20%roe+XVFUvMmRtQrQtNtQnQrOnM9P9R6MmOoOsQmQiNoOoNkPnPoR8OnNzRuOtQsPvPpOzQ 2009 1210 3.5 SAA TAA.5 SAA.5 TAA.6.7.9.9.11.13.15.17 2009 1210 4 1 SAA TAA.5 2.7 3.8 4.8 5.8 6 2023H1.8 7.9 8.9 9 2023H1.10 10 2023H1.10 11.11 12 YTD.11 13 2015.11 14 2015.12 15 2021 ROE.13 16.14 17.14 18 2023.14 19.15 20 A 2022.16 21 H 2022.16 22 2018-2022%.16 23 PEV 2024/3/20.17 24 PB 2024/3/20.17 99FwJ7KbLm4obxx8uFx2sLzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVnfkfJCZCRuf0/WixybDygA 2009 1210 5 SAA TAA SAA TAA SAA DAA TAA SAA TAA 3-5 5-10 1-3 1 1-3 1 1 SAA TAA SAA TAA 3-5 1 1-3 1 5-10 1-3 SAA 1 TAA SAA 1,2009 1210 6 1 SAA TAA 2 3 ALM 20 TAA/2009 1210 7 1 2 3 2023 2023 12 27.67 12.57 45.4%3.33 12.0%9.8%2013 4 2023+4.5pct-0.7pct 2 2023H1 69%-78%42%-57%18%-28%3.4%-9.0%2.1%-8.2%2023H1/57.4%/49.7%/48.3%/45.9%/42.2%1.7%33.8%/14.2%/14.7%/13.3%0500001000001500002000002500003000002013-042013-072013-102014-012014-042014-072014-102015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10 2009 1210 8 3 4 5 6 2023H1 2017 35%5%4%2023H1 14.6%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%85.0%90.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 57.4%49.7%48.3%45.9%42.2%16.4%22.7%29.9%27.3%26.5%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%中国平安 中国人寿 中国太保 新华保险 中国人保 2009 1210 9 7 2023 197.1%/25%12.0%8/100%10%100%-150%20%150%-200%25%200%-250%30%250%-300%35%300%-350%40%350%45%18%-25%+1 2 3 2023H1 18%-28%200%-250%30%+0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2009 1210 10 FVTPL FVOCI FVTPL FVOCI 9 2023H1 10 2023H1 1 FVTPL FVOCI I9 FVTPL 2018 I9 2023H1 FVTPL 33.0%I9 FVTPL 2 FVTPL FVOCI 3 50%50%20%-50%/FVOCI FVTPL FVOCI FVOCI 1 2 3 20 FVOCI FVOCI 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%中国人寿 中国平安 中国太保 新华保险 中国人保 67.0%14.1%6.5%31.2%33.0%85.9%93.5%68.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%中国平安 中国太保 新华保险 中国人保FVOCI FVTPL 2009 1210 11 11 2024 2015 2015+95.2%2015 62 2016 2020 2020 28 13 2021 2024 2024/2/6 12 YTD 13 2015-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2014-042014-102015-042015-102016-042016-102017-042017-102018-042018-102019-042019-102020-042020-102021-042021-102022-042022-102023-042023-10yoy-(YTD)6213911928161420102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009 1210 12 20%1 5%20%FVTPL FVOCI 2 20%3 50%20%FVOCI 2018 2019 25%2021 432 243 20%FVOIC roe 2015 2015 2015 7 2020 8 roe 1 2015 20%FVOCI 14 2015 iFind 0510152025 2009 1210 13 15 2021 ROE wind 2024/3/20 FVOCI FVOCI 2023 4.5%-5%8.48%5.99%5.40%2017 11.7%-13.8%2009 1210 14 I9 FVOCI 16 17 18 2023 wind 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%2013-042013-112014-062015-012015-082016-032016-102017-052017-122018-072019-022019-092020-042020-112021-062022-012022-082023-032023-10 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1-1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00SW 煤炭SW 银行SW 石油石化SW 交通运输SW 家用电器SW 纺织服饰SW 建筑材料SW 钢铁SW 房地产SW 建筑装饰SW 传媒SW 公用事业SW 食品饮料SW 非银金融SW 通信SW 环保SW 有色金属SW 基础化工SW 轻工制造SW 商贸零售SW 电力设备SW 机械设备SW 汽车SW 医药生物SW 美容护理SW 农林牧渔SW 社会服务SW 电子SW 计算机SW 综合SW 国防军工%2009 1210 15 19 wind OCI 2023 A 3.61%32 2021 A 2022 2024/3/20 3%H 3%AH H H 2022 30%/52.31%/43.17%/39.87%2009 1210 16 20 A 2022 21 H 2022 wind 2024/3/20 wind 2024/3/20 22 2018-2022%wind PEV 25%PB 75%-80%A/H 15%/40%32 2021 A 60+ST+5.77 4.40 4.23 3.44 3.25 1.69 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00中国平安 中国太保 天茂集团 新华保险 中国人保 中国人寿2022%8.19 8.14 7.93 7.19 5.65 5.05 3.83 2.94 2.74 1.88-1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.002022%-10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 17 23 PEV 2024/3/20 wind 24 PB 2024/3/20 wind-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 A A A A H H H H H H H0.001.002.003.004.005.006.00 601319.SH 1339.HK 2328.HK 2009 1210 18 2016 2017 2019 2019 Wind 2020 8 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 Choice 2022 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018-2021 2022 2022 2018 2023 2023 2023 祎 2023 2024 2009 1210 19 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 20 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
