20240331_华创证券_环保及公用事业行业深度研究报告：自由现金流视角高股息资产再审视_26页.pdf
2009 1210 2024 03 31 FCFF FCFF EBIT Taxation D&A NWC CAPEX FCFF CAPEX NWC 99%98%2021 CAPEX FCFF NWC CAPEX NWC CAPEX FCFF NWC EBIT+D&A D&A 2024 4 2010 2016 2020 2024 CAPEX EBIT CAPEX EBIT EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 9.80 0.87 1.06 1.14 11.21 9.26 8.61 1.53 15.32 1.32 1.43 1.49 11.61 10.74 10.31 1.25 16.48 1.73 2.04 2.18 9.52 8.08 7.57 1.11 Wind 2024 3 29 021-20572539 S0360516090002%()156 0.02()8,900.31 1.02()7,348.07 1.08%1M 6M 12M 4.5%-10.1%-11.7%3.9%-6.0%-0.0%2024-03-17 2024 4 2024-03-10 2024-03-01-26%-17%-7%3%23/03 23/06 23/08 23/11 24/01 24/032023-03-312024-03-29 300 2009 1210 FCFF 1ZAZyRrMtQnMsMsRmRrOnM7N8Q9PoMnNtRsOjMpPmQlOoOoP9PqQwONZoNvNuOpNoN 2009 1210 3.6 FCFF.6.6 CAPEX N WC.7.7.8 FCFF.9 CAPEX N W C.10.10.11 FCFF.12“”EBIT+D&A.14.14.15 FCFF.17 CAPEX EBIT.17 CAPEX.17 EBIT.18 FCFF.22.23.23 2009 1210 4 1 2013-2022 SW FCFF.7 2 2013-2022 SW FCFF.7 3 2011-2022.7 4.8 5.8 6.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 10 2018-2022 FCFF.10 11 2013-2022.11 12 100%.11 13.11 14 2019-2023.12 15 2022%.12 16 2022/.12 17 2018-2022 FCFF.13 18 2018-2022/.14 19 2022.14 20.14 21.14 22.15 23.15 24 2020-2023.15 25.16 26.16 27 2009-2023 ONI.16 28 2009-2022.16 29 2018-2022 FCFF.17 30.17 31 2015-2022.18 32 2015-2022.18 33 2017-2025E.18 uvirZYGGIEFRY3NDEeZ2YsiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfZkjvP4B4bEoSvpUDz5FLYl 2009 1210 5 34 2019-2022.19 35 2020-2022.19 36.19 37 2020.19 38 2021 TTF JKM.20 39 2024-2028/.20 40 2019 REpowerEU.20 41 2021-2023Q3OECD.20 42.21 43.21 44.22 45 2017-2022 FCFF.23 2009 1210 6 FCFF 20 80 20=-+-EBIT EBIT EBIT CAPEX D&A Taxation D&A CAPEX D&ACAPEX D&A=-CAPEX EBIT FCFF FCFF 5 2.47%1.59%FCFF FCFF 2009 1210 7 1 2013-2022 SW FCFF 2 2013-2022 SW FCFF Wind Wind 3 2011-2022 Wind CAPEX NWC-400-350-300-250-200-150-100-500502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022SW FCFF-1,500-1,000-50005001,0001,5002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022SW FCFF 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.43 2.76 4.51 2.74 2.18 1.35 6.72 4.23 4.59 4.87 5.37 7.08 5.23 1.12 3.16 2.72 2.44 0.80 1.84 0.74 1.50 5.13 5.14 3.59 5.22 6.00 5.01 0.87 3.15 4.19 5.64 4.05 4.44 4.43 3.37 4.02 3.84 4.60 4.75 5.72 4.59 0.74 3.28 3.49 3.73 2.95 2.26 1.12 2.07 4.10 3.63 3.27 3.73 5.97 4.14 1.07 1.48 1.17 1.79 1.33 1.08 1.80 2.23 3.44 3.20 4.18 4.48 3.53 3.77 0.54 1.98 2.66 2.64 2.07 1.34 1.65 2.21 3.40 3.24 2.97 2.86 3.76 3.25 0.36 1.47 1.65 1.31 1.25 1.37 1.03 1.05 2.64 2.41 2.28 1.96 3.99 2.66 0.79 2.02 1.75 2.08 2.47 2.42 2.52 2.05 2.93 2.35 1.85 2.49 3.46 2.62 0.61 2.78 3.38 2.84 1.89 1.45 1.64 1.39 2.18 2.11 1.88 2.02 4.32 2.50 1.02 2.45 1.88 2.77 2.09 2.18 2.85 2.54 2.65 2.58 2.63 2.14 2.37 2.47 0.22 1.89 1.88 2.11 2.14 1.87 2.29 2.32 4.07 2.64 1.44 1.52 1.55 2.24 1.14 1.57 1.44 2.02 1.15 1.05 1.15 1.26 1.90 2.11 2.41 2.22 2.53 2.23 0.25 2.41 1.39 1.21 0.65 1.08 1.98 1.35 2.22 1.19 1.61 2.07 2.61 1.94 0.55 1.44 1.62 1.38 0.98 0.67 0.71 1.04 2.15 2.16 1.55 1.19 2.06 1.82 0.43 0.75 1.34 0.66 0.54 0.33 0.55 0.93 1.37 1.41 1.39 1.74 2.60 1.70 0.52 2.16 2.00 1.41 1.13 0.70 0.93 1.13 1.96 1.52 1.35 1.34 1.89 1.61 0.29 1.52 1.39 0.95 0.77 0.56 0.75 0.83 1.65 1.53 1.51 1.36 1.89 1.59 0.20 1.04 1.60 2.69 2.03 1.65 2.11 1.28 2.23 1.43 0.90 1.06 1.90 1.50 0.56 0.96 1.56 1.50 1.23 0.80 0.84 1.10 1.68 1.75 1.00 1.22 1.58 1.44 0.32 1.32 1.95 1.39 0.87 0.55 0.78 0.90 1.50 1.39 1.10 1.21 1.63 1.37 0.21 1.00 1.38 0.80 0.68 0.54 1.35 1.83 1.45 1.22 1.48 1.20 0.65 1.20 0.34 1.04 1.30 0.94 0.70 0.54 0.61 0.54 0.70 0.71 0.72 0.83 2.90 1.17 0.97 0.92 1.00 1.58 0.89 0.75 0.62 0.61 1.29 1.14 0.81 0.77 1.45 1.09 0.30 1.82 1.33 1.20 0.91 0.35 0.46 0.60 1.35 0.85 0.65 0.59 1.52 0.99 0.42 1.15 1.04 0.87 0.79 0.66 0.72 0.81 1.27 0.94 0.67 0.83 1.18 0.98 0.25 1.16 1.34 0.77 0.65 0.40 0.55 0.60 1.21 0.69 0.54 0.58 1.22 0.85 0.34 1.30 1.36 0.95 0.62 0.37 0.55 0.77 1.16 1.11 0.74 0.47 0.61 0.82 0.30 1.24 1.51 1.12 0.91 0.65 0.74 0.79 1.37 0.94 0.47 0.37 0.63 0.75 0.41 0.93 1.08 0.69 0.53 0.31 0.52 0.61 0.87 0.65 0.56 0.65 0.92 0.73 0.16 0.78 0.82 0.93 1.07 1.01 1.75 0.36 0.76 0.53 0.46 0.61 0.59 0.59 0.11 0.82 1.08 0.69 0.32 0.26 0.34 0.39 0.47 0.45 0.29 0.33 0.52 0.41 0.10 2009 1210 8 4+1 2 3 4+1 2 3 4 4 5 6 20 90 2022 99.39%97.86%2000 2009 1210 9 2002 2000-2010 19%2022 1045/38.85%2022 98.11%96.94%7 8 2022 2022 2020 2000 2022 4707 1003 21%2677 57%1028 22%2022 139.64 2000 32.46 3 4695 2000 481 8 9 2022 FCFF 8 EBIT CAPEX 2018“12 2009 1210 10”15.768 FCFF 2019 EBIT CAPEX 2021 25-30 D&A NWC FCFF FCFF 1 B C 2 10 2018-2022 FCFF Wind CAPEX NWC 2022 2020 15 2022 2022 2.44 2019 2.42 10 2022 82.99%-150-100-500501001502018 2019 2020 2021 2022EBIT*(1-T)D&A CAPEXNWCFCFF 2009 1210 11 11 2013-2022 2022 99.89%2022 2.4445 2.4419 100%1.95 79.86%3043.20 12.46%2022 105.71/80.47/72.53%2021 71.95/11.83%12 100%13 Wind Wind 2023 3.35/2022 15.83%2023 119/2022 27%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0050.00100.0005000100001500020000250002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022%0200000400000600000800000100000012000002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022生活垃圾焚烧无害化处理 能力(吨/日)无害化处理能力:卫生填埋(吨/日)其他无害化方式处理能力（吨/日）2009 1210 12 14 2019-2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 130 72 75 65 55/14 7.53 6.35 3.98 3.35 700 367 317 258 287.7/69.7 79.51 89.63 93.7 119 2021 75.84%56.6%100%2022 11 28 2025 2022/50%16 47.22/50%15 2022%16 2022/FCFF 8 CAPEX FCFF 14 3%4%2%2%4%4%4%3%2%1%1%0%2%1%14%5%47%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000瀚蓝环境伟明环保旺能环境中国天楹绿色动力三峰环境上海环境城发环境圣元环保中科环保军信股份中环环保首创环保高能环境光大环境粤丰环保/2009 1210 13 50 CAPEX FCFF 2020 8-182 EBIT*(1-T)59 CAPEX FCFF To G 2020 NWC FCFF 17 2018-2022 FCFF Wind 1 3-5 2 1 2-250-200-150-100-500501001502018 2019 2020 2021 2022EBIT*(1-T)D&A CAPEX NWC FCFF 2009 1210 14 EBIT+D&A 1 2022/61.24%/56.51%2 18 2018-2022/19 2022 2022 98%1 2022 SW 1.11 1/1.13/1.15/1.09 20 21 Wind Wind 40%45%50%55%60%65%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,51%,30%,18%,1%0.800.850.900.951.001.051.101.151.201.252011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.80.91.01.11.22015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022SW 2009 1210 15 2023 2023 1-6 5 5 21.5%8 8-9 406/383 5 Q4 2022 22 Wind 2023 Q3-Q4+2023 1840.25 2020/2021 18.9%/11.7%2024 2023 2024 23 24 2020-2023 Wind 2023 2023 2022 2023 885.23 4.84%0501001502002503003504004505001-2月 3月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11月 12月 5 2023 5 13013514014515015516016517017518001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12m2022 202302004006008001,0001,2002020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 16 25 26 2023 2024 4 2010 2016 2020 2024 2024 27 2009-2023 ONI NOAA ONI 5+0.5 28 2009-2022 Wind Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ2009-0.8-0.8-0.6-0.3 0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 1.4 1.62010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4-0.2-0.7-1-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.6-1.62011-1.4-1.2-0.9-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.8-1-1.1-12012-0.9-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3 0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1-0.22013-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.32014-0.4-0.5-0.3 0 0.2 0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.72015 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.62016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.62017-0.3-0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-12018-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.2 0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.82019 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.52020 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.22021-1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.7-0.8-1-12022-1-0.9-1-1.1-1-0.9-0.8-0.9-1-1-0.9-0.82023-0.7-0.4-0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 250,00055,00060,00065,00070,00075,0002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 17 FCFF 10 FCFF FCFF 77%Capex 29 2018-2022 FCFF Wind CAPEX EBIT CAPEX 30-600-400-2000200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022EBIT*(1-T)D&A CAPEX NWC FCFF 2009 1210 18 31 2015-2022 32 2015-2022 Wind 25-30 EBIT 1 2022 59%16%LNG 25%2025 2493 2021-2025 CAGR 4.68%33 2017-2025E wind 2022 2/201401002003004005006002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0204060801001201402015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2025E 2009 1210 19 5 1 380 30 50 2019 12 2022 147 25%10-12 2023 2022 18.4%34 2019-2022 35 2020-2022 BP BP 36 37 2020 Wind Wind LNG 2024-2026 LNG 21.3%2022 2024-2026 LNG 01002003004005006007002019 2020 2021 2022 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52020 2021 2022/0204060801001201400501001502002503003504004505002016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10/:Dtd/0204060801001201401602020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01/2009 1210 20 38 2021 TTF JKM 39 2024-2028/Bloomberg IGU 40 2019 REpowerEU 41 2021-2023Q3OECD IEA European Comission Eurostat Primes IEA 2 2022 LNG 2023 6 0204060801002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-072023-11/TTF JKM 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002024 2025 2026 2027 2028/2009 1210 21 42 2017 11 2018 9 2021 5 2023 6 2023 2023 6 43 2023 6 2023 10 8%5%5%5%50%2009 1210 22 2023 0.256/+9.75%52 2023 52 0.256/9.75%10 0.391/14.27%44/2.78 3.15 0.37 13.31%2023/6/14 2.55 2.93 0.38 14.90%2023/6/12 2.73 3.13 0.4 14.65%2023/7/1 2.76 3.13 0.37 13.41%2023/6/18 2.78 3.18 0.4 14.39%2023/6/20 2.78 3.18 0.4 14.39%2023/6/21 2.725 3.125 0.4 14.68%2023/6/21 2.78 3.18 0.4 14.39%2023/6/22 2.78 3.18 0.4 14.39%2023/6/26 2.75 3.14 0.39 14.18%2023/7/1 2.73 3.03 0.3 10.99%2023/7/1 2.73 3.02 0.29 10.62%2023/9/1 2.75 3.02 0.27 9.82%2023/10/16 2.72 2.99 0.27 9.93%2023/11/1 2.5 2.79 0.29 11.60%2023/9/1 1.96 2.03 0.07 3.57%2023/7/19 2.05 2.18 0.13 6.34%2023/7/25 1.78 1.91 0.13 7.30%2023/8/1 2.05 2.18 0.13 6.34%2023/8/9 2.04 2.17 0.13 6.37%2023/9/1 2.23 2.36 0.13 5.83%2023/9/4 1.8 1.93 0.13 7.22%2023/9/24 FCFF CAPEX EBIT FCFF 2017-2022 EBIT*(1-T 36.1%2020 2021-2022 2020-2022 EBIT*(1-T)50.27/41.30/28.47 2009 1210 23 CAPEX EBIT FCFF 45 2017-2022 FCFF Wind-300-200-10001002003004005002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022EBIT*(1-T)D&A CAPEX NWC FCFF 2009 1210 24 2022 2022 2023 2009 1210 25 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 26 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
