20240411_民生证券_电新行业EV观察系列161：3月欧洲新能车市场环比增长渗透率达20.54%_25页.pdf
*EV 1613 20.54%2024 4 11*1 3 3 27.3 14.47%55.61%20.54%7.29 12.93%9.10%10.37%3 91.48%58.14%28.09%2.72 0.35 0.77 Pcts 1.72 0.36 6.34 Pcts 2030 2021 55%2035 2022 21.48%/21.12%/22.89%/34.32%+6.5/4.25/2.49/-5.03 Pcts 2023 19.26%/21.85%/24.72%/35.88%-2.22/+0.73/+1.8/-8.44 Pcts 1 2 31ZBYvMrMoNmNrPpMqNtMqRbR8Q7NoMoOnPnReRmMsOlOqRpN7NrQoQxNpPpMxNmRsM*C O N T E N T S 02 033 27.3 55.61%20.54%01 0412*3 27.3 55.61%20.54%01.3kcSbi77hegYb/eCynQ9Pr8iCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfZdD+Mo3pf7FrrK5y/RC3FY*3 1 2024 3 Markline InsideEV 3 2024 3 3 26.4 31.8 18.00 16.21 9.48 0.98 2.28 2.39 108.00 0.17%49.31%1-3 252.23 6.14%013 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.1 4*3 2 2024 3 Markline InsideEV 013 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.2 5 3 Markline InsideEV 3 4.75 7.29 5.06 1.10 0.98 0.89 0.63 1.39 12.93%9.10%10.37%3 91.48%58.14%28.09%2.72 0.35 0.77 Pcts 1.72 0.36 6.34 Pcts-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000 0%20%40%60%80%100%2024 3 2023 3 2024 2*3 4 EV sales 2024 3 27.3 14.47%55.61%20.54%1.73 Pct 0.83 Pct 3 3 17.8 19.85%56.60%9.43 2.04%53.77%3 65.39%2024 2 0.42 Pcts 34.61%013 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.3 6 5 ACEA-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 2024 0%20%40%60%80%100%18-Q118-Q218-Q318-Q419-Q119-Q219-Q319-Q420-Q120-Q220-Q320-Q421-Q121-Q221-Q321-Q422-Q122-Q222-Q322-Q423-Q123-Q223-Q323-Q424-Q1*3 6 ACEA EV Sales 2024 3 27.3 14.47%55.61%1 3%2 15%2024 339 25.52%013 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.4 2024 7 7 ACEA EV Sales 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01002003004005002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E YOY0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%0501001502002503003504004502019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E*3 8 24 23 3 KBA 3 31.78 18.35%274.37%3 7.29 12.93%245.70%22.94%1.10 Pcts 1.90 Pcts EV 4.84 3.78%222.78%15.23%PHEV 2.45 36.71%302.05%7.71%1-3 12.69 17.49%2023 9 2030 2035 01 3 2035 3 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.5 8 9 2024 3 KBA 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%-20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,0002023-3 2024-3 15.23%7.71%14.02%7.34%55.70%*3 10 24 23 3 CCFA 3 18.00 1.47%26.24%3 5.06 9.10%34.47%28.09%2.72 Pcts 1.72 Pcts EV 3.43 11.90%32.51%19.04%PHEV 1.63 3.65%38.79%9.05%1-3 11.87 17.14%2024 1 01 3 3 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.5 9 11 2024 3 CCFA-40%-20%0%20%40%60%010000200003000040000500006000070000800002023-3 2024-3 19.04%9.05%27.72%7.52%32.70%3.97%*3 12 24 23 3 SMMT 3 26.38 6.23%21.37%3 4.75 22.02%12.93%18.00%3.65 Pcts 1.35 Pcts EV 3.14 28.85%14.26%11.90%PHEV 1.61 4.07%10.42%6.10%1-3 12.64 4.43%4 6750 4-6.5 4500 2023 9 1 2024 1 1 01 3 2023 9 1 3 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.5 10 13 2024 3 SMMT-40%-20%0%20%40%-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,0002023-3 2024-3 11.90%6.10%25.40%18.30%37.80%0.50%*3 14 24 23 3 ofv 3 0.98 49.65%32.11%3 0.89 49.46%31.28%91.48%0.35 Pcts 0.58 Pcts EV 0.87 48.19%31.02%89.32%PHEV 0.02 74.91%42.86%2.15%1-3 2.05 20.36%2023 500 12.5 500,000 25%013 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.5 11 15 2024 3 ofv-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 2023-03 2024-03 89.32%2.15%5.71%2.03%0.78%*3 16 24 23 3 Mobility Sweden 3 2.39 21.05%27.31%3 1.39 23.33%42.89%58.14%1.73 Pcts 6.34 Pcts EV 0.83 33.70%59.48%34.90%PHEV 0.56 0.20%23.58%23.23%1-3 3.26 8.59%2022 12 8 50%1.5 013 27.3 55.61%20.54%1.5 12 17 2024 3 Mobility Sweden 3 58.14%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,0002023-03 2024-03 34.90%23.23%7.67%7.14%23.84%3.21%*02.13*3 18 2019/631 g/km 2019 12 European Green Deal 2050 2023 3 2035 2040 90%European Green Deal 2020 1 1 2019/631 2020-2024 95 g/km 2025-2030 2021 2025 15%2030 37.5%02 2.1 14-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%01020304050607080901002021 2025E 2030E 2021 19-g/km 1301461641419511311911781899559.476020406080100120140160180 2015 2020 2025 2030 IHS PA EEA*3 1 02 2.1 15-1.50%)2.50 malus)CO2 60g/km CO2 47,000 5,000 47,000()3.000 47,000 6,000 1.2025 12 31(BEV)(FCEV),10 2.2030 12 31 3.95/1.0.5-1%)2.3.60.000 0.25-1%)1.2023 1 1 2.40,000 6,750 3.40,000 65,000 4,500 4.2023 9 1 5.2024 1 1(75/)M1 35%2,500)112 35,000 1.(EVHS):2.(WCS):75%350 40*3 20 2018-2024 ACEA 2020 2022 21.48%/21.12%/22.89%/34.32%+6.71/4.25/2.49/-5.03 Pcts 2023 19.26%/21.85%/24.72%/35.88%-2.22/+0.73/+1.8/-8.44 Pcts 2024 19.69%0.43 Pcts 02 2.1 160%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024*3 02 2.2 17 2 240GWh 2030 80 55%2040 SSP 2025 20 2026 370 180-2030 50%25 50%5 2025 120 50%2030 5 190 75 4680 100GWh 2025 Neue Klasse 50%2030 50%1000 2030 MINI 2026 98%58%35%20230 EV 40%2035 100%2030*3 02 2.3 18 3/3.6 4 5000 NMP 5000 15 3 4 2.75 10 4.7 1 20/24 15 5 Valmet Quantron AG 20 155 24GWh PACK 20 10GWh 40GWh*03.19*3 3 4.75 7.29 5.06 1.10 0.98 0.89 0.63 1.39 12.93%9.10%10.37%3 91.48%58.14%28.09%2.72 0.35 0.77 Pcts 1.72 0.36 6.34 Pcts 1290 2024 339.0 15%25.52%2020 2022 21.48%/21.12%/22.89%/34.32%+6.5/4.25/2.49/-5.03 Pcts 2023 19.26%/21.85%/24.72%/35.88%-2.22/+0.73/+1.8/-8.44 Pcts 2024 19.69%0.43 Pcts 0320*04.21*3 1 2 3 04 22*THANKS 23 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 19 100005 6001 32 05:518026 S0100521100006 S0100523050004 S0100523120002 S0100122060007 S0100122060013 S0100522120001 S0100122120021 S0100524010003 S0100123020010 S0100123030035*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*1424
