20240408_银河证券_军工行业中国经济高质量发展系列研究：数字经济数字低空赋能抢滩低空经济万亿级蓝海市场_22页.pdf
Table_Header 2024 4 8 Table_Title 2025 2500/2023 40%5G SILAS UAM Morgan Stanley 2025-2035 UAM 2035 2040 UAM 1 2050 9/2.5/2+2024-2030+eVTOL 2025 300 eVTOL+toC eVTOL 5 Evtol 13256 320 Table_IndustryName Table_InvestRank S0130515090001 Table_Research 1 2 3 XVFUyRqNtQrQoQnOnQpQrQ9PcM9PpNoOnPsOkPoOtPlOnMoO7NrRxPuOtQqRNZnNmP 3 Table_ReportTypeIndex.4.5.5.8.10.11“+”.13 UAM.13+.14+.15+toC.18.20 4 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2022 50.2 2017 GDP 2022 41.5%2022/10.5%/24.0%/44.7%1 2 Wind Wind 2015 878 2023 2186 2025 2500/Wind 2023 40%2023 28.05%17.22%3 4%Wind 27.20 31.30 35.80 39.20 45.50 50.20 20.30 20.90 15.60 9.70 11.90 10.30 051015202501020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:%6.20 6.50 7.30 8.20 8.90 10.50 16.80 17.20 18.30 19.50 21.00 24.00 29.60 32.60 35.90 37.80 40.70 44.70 051015202530354045502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:%:%:%878 1,042 1,205 1,369 1,532 1,696 1,859 2,023 2,186 2,350 2,513 0500100015002000250030002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E28.05%17.22%14.71%11.98%9.21%7.77%7.78%1.89%1.41%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%ra04sbooPl8xT/6PI9zNxciCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfadgTjjf2YuL+UZ9IidiLo9 5 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1000 3000 2024 4 4 2027 2030 2022 1.8 2024 2.5 17.8%2024 2023 5059.5 33.8%2026 1.06 2023-2026 28%5 6 1 5G GDP 2911.83780.75059.56072.58591.710644.69.329.833.832.528.223.905101520253035400200040006000800010000120002021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E(%)0.81.61.51.72.41.71.82.252.600.511.522.532016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E数字城市产业投资规模（万亿元）6 Table_ReportTypeIndex+7 2 SILAS SILAS Smart Integrated Lower Airspace System/SILAS SILAS 8 SILAS 9 2.0 7 Table_ReportTypeIndex 3D 10 3 SILAS 2024 SILAS 11 8 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2023 10 2023-2026 2024 SILAS 2022 8 V1.0 2025 2030 2035 2024 1 1 EASA eVTOL eVTOL EASA 2025 2030 2035 1 UTM(NASA)2013(UAS Traffic Management,UTM)UTM 12 1 UTM 1:UTM 1 7 2 8 3 9 4 10 5 11 6 12 NASA UTM 4 2015 2016 2018 2019 9 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2:NASA UTM NASA UTM ICT U-Space U-Space 12 U-SPACE 13 U-SPACE EASA EASA 2 UTM UTM 2018 11 19 UTMISS 2020 5 1 UTIMISS UOM UTM UTIMISS UTM 2020 60%2025 80%UTM 10 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2023 2022 5007 6.76%1400 3480 7.54%69.5%2025 GNSS 14%15%2023 2128 2020 7 GeoSOT 6 1.5 1 0 276 418 475 567 704 819 976 1076 1219 1409 1527 51.39%13.50%19.51%24.05%16.34%19.28%10.18%13.27%15.62%8.38%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012001400160018002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 534 622 868 1168 1414 1731 2040 2374 2814 3281 3480 16.50%39.65%34.48%21.11%22.41%17.80%16.41%18.54%16.58%6.06%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050010001500200025003000350040002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11 Table_ReportTypeIndex 16 17+DEM DTM GeoSOT 18 19 5G ADS-B 5G 5G 5G-A 6G 12 Table_ReportTypeIndex 20 IMT-2030(6G)6G 6G 5G 6G 5G 150,W G 5G 150-1000 4G/5G/2022 3840 73%2811 2022 ITU 12292 2023 8 G60 13000 2024 21 6G 6G for Connected Sky:A Vision for Integrating Terrestrial and Non-Terrestrial Networks 13 Table_ReportTypeIndex+UAM 2023 126.7 2022 32.2%19.4 2023 2311 11.8%2023 1174.3 2025 2000 30.5%Frost&Sullivan 2015 2020 30.03 273.2 2024 1500 53%318 200 122 255 448 47.2%/63.3%/33.2%/200.4%/53.9%22 23 Frost&Sullivan UAM eVTOL Morgan Stanley eVTOL/Urban Air MobilityTAM Update:A Slow Take-Off,But Skys the Limit 2025-2035 UAM 2035 2025-2045 2040 1 2050 9 2.5 2 2050 UAM 19 24 UAM 25 UAM Morgan Stanley eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update:A Slow Take-Off,But Skys the Limit Morgan Stanley eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update:A Slow Take-Off,But Skys the Limit 652.1889.51174.322.836.432051015202530354002004006008001000120014002021 2022 2023产业规模（亿元）规模增长率（%）84 80 319 198 256 122 449 020040060080010001200140016002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 30 436912815227347872611341508 14 Table_ReportTypeIndex+1+20+eVTOL+2024 2 23 2024 3 26 2024-2030 2022 1105.8 2.1%2024 1600 300 30%2018 13 2023 402 98.6%2025 664 2017 83.1 2023 493 2026 957/26 27/+2021 2022 12 2023 2023 8 7 17 14 4 5A 18.4 13235013129040252666477%117%162%121%39%31%26%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 83.1130.3186.9209.9279380.7493.4624.7774.3957.857%43%12%33%36%30%27%24%24%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 15 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2 2020 2024 3 2.6 30 380 7000 2023 3 40 10 3+2024-2030+2024 3 2 12 4 40 1 42kg 8kg 100km 46kg 10kg 18km/28 Menta Ray 29 Ark UAV+16 Table_ReportTypeIndex 3:1 1 1000 800 15 2008 5.12 2008-2022 2019 4:2008-2009 27 1000 2014 12 2016 4 2016 12(2016-2025)2018 8 2019 3 2019 2019 12 600 30 2020 9 2022 2 2022 6 2022 6 2022 6 2022 9 2023 4 17 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2 eVTOL 2022 1000 60 20/15/10 eVTOL 30 eVTOL eVTOL 2025 300 eVTOL eVTOL Volocopter ADAC LifeSaver eVTOL VE25 eVTOL EMS 31 eVTOL 32 VE25 ASML HERO 18 Table_ReportTypeIndex 3 eVTOL 6 eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL EH216-F 6 100L 2021 7 3km 33 EH216-F 34 EH216-F+toC toC 2021 11 25%20%2%35 Wind 0100002000030000400005000060000700002018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-11-19 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2021 12 2022 1 2022 2 5:2021 2021 12 2021 12 2022 1 2022 2 2024 4 2024 2030 2023 7(2023-2025)eVTOL 2023 3 120 EH216-S eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL 2023 48.91 93.3%4.91 140.3%eVTOL eVTOL eVTOL 3A 2022 315 5A 4179 4A 6931 3A 5 50%5A 30%4A 15%3A/eVTOL 10/6/4 eVTOL 5 Evtol 13256 EH216-S 239 320+toC 6:EH216-S 239 5A 315 50%10 1575 37.6 4A 4179 30%6 7522 179.8 3A 6931 15%4 4159 99.4 11425 20 13256 316.8 20 Table_ReportTypeIndex eVTOL 2026 2027 toC 10“”600038.SH 002085.SZ 688070.SH EH.O 600893.SH 600580.SH 001696.SZ 600862.SH 300699.SZ 300900.SZ 600458.SH 688568.SH 688631.SH 002967.SZ 688522.SH 000801.SZ 002151.SZ 301091.SZ 000099.SZ 36+eVTOL+618+-W-W+*ST+3D+UAM+21 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1.4 2.4 3.4 4%.4 5.5 6.5 7.6 8 SILAS.6 9.6 10.7 11.7 12 U-SPACE.9 13 U-SPACE.9 14%.10 15%.10 16.11 17.11 18.11 19.11 20.12 21 6G.12 22.13 23.13 24 UAM.13 25 UAM.13 26.14 27.14 28 Menta Ray.15 29 Ark UAV.15 30.17 31 eVTOL.17 32 VE25.17 33 EH216-F.18 34 EH216-F.18 35.18 36.20 1:UTM.8 2:NASA UTM.9 3:.16 4:.16 5:2021.19 6:.19 22 Table_ReportTypeIndex Table_AuthorsRxplain 10 2015 2021EMIS&CEIC 2019 2019 2015 Table_Avow 6 12 A 300 50 10%-5%10%5%20%5%20%-5%5%5%Table_Contacts 3088 20 0755-83471683 chengxi_ 0755-83479312 suyiyun_ 99 31 021-60387901 luyunru_ 021-20252671 liyangyang_ 8 1 010-80927721 010-80927722 tangmanling_
