请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明 industryId investSuggestion(investSuggestionChange relatedReport 2023 2023-03-23&2022 2022-05-14 2021-06-20 emailAuthor S0190518030002 S0190523110001 assAuthor summary 2002 0.74 2008-2023 10.19%7.91pct 18.10%2023 2023 92241 6.79%GDP 5.20%+2023+15.78%2023 3-12+7.52%+6.49%+4.19%2023+42.5%+57.5%+30.81%+29.32%+7.52%+19.71%+81.94%2023 92888+6.84%/+6.48%/-5.27%/+3.90%/+16.19%/+36.41%2023 22.72%8 2022+1.99%2024 5%-1.92%GDP 5%2024 96853 4612 4984 59845-1.92%2024 1 2 H+A H+A 3 4 5 title 2024 createTime1 2024 03 27 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-2-1.-5-1.1.-5-1.2.-7-1.3.-10-2 2023.-11-2.1+6.79%.-11-2.2.-18-3 2024.-23-3.1 5%.-23-3.2.-25-4.-29-5.-30-1 2002-2023.-5-2 2002-2023.-5-3 2003-2023.-5-4 2009-2023.-6-5 2010-2023 CAGR.-6-6 2023.-7-7 2008-2023.-7-8 2019-2023.-7-9 2008-2023.-7-10 2010.-8-11 2023.-8-12.-9-13 2010-2023.-9-14 2021-2022.-10-15 2021/2022.-10-16 2021 3.-10-17 2021/2022.-10-18.-11-19 2019-2023.-12-20 2019-2023.-12-21 2008-2023.-12-22 2008-2023.-13-23 2008-2023.-13-24 2008-2023 3-12.-13-25 2008-2023 3-12.-13-26 2023+15.78%.-14-WUFUvMtOsRpOrPmPnQrOmN7NdNbRpNnNnPqMkPnNpMlOmOvN8OpPwOwMnOmRxNrNxO 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-3-27 2023+15.82%.-14-28.-14-29 2007-2023 3-12.-15-30 2007-2023 3-12.-15-31 2018-2023 3-12.-15-32 2018-2023 3-12.-15-33 2018-2023 3-12.-15-34 2007-2023 3-12.-15-35 2019-2023.-16-36 2015-2023.-16-37 2018-2023 3-12.-16-38 2018-2023 3-12.-16-39 2018-2023 3-12.-17-40 2018-2023 3-12.-17-41 2018-2023.-17-42 2018-2023.-17-43.-18-44 2012-2023.-18-45 2012-2023.-18-46 2022-2023.-19-47 2012-2023.-19-48 2012-2023.-19-49 2012-2023.-20-50 2012-2023.-20-51 2012-2023.-20-52.-21-53.-21-54.-21-55 2018-2023.-21-56.-22-57 2012-2023.-22-58 2012-2023.-22-59 2012-2023.-22-60 2023:(Q5500,)2022.-22-61 2014-2023.-23-62 2014-2023.-23-63 2014-2023.-23-64 2014-2023.-23-65 2024 4612.-24-66 2.-24-67 2024 89GW 171GW.-24-68 2019-2023 3-12.-25-69 2024+5%-1.92%.-26-70 2023.-27-71/.-27-72/.-27-73 2014-2023.-27-74 2.-28-75 CCTD+.-28-76 25.-28-请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-4-77 2023(Q5500,).-28-1.-28-2 2024 3 22.-29-me2MhCHYJALIKBUeXHqLUrzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVlq16lZm/8lWsMr/Wd9emu2 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-5-1 1.1 2002 0.74 1 2002-2023 2 2002-2023 Wind Wind 3 2003-2023 Wind 0%5%10%15%20%0200004000060000800001000002002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000002002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 0%5%10%15%20%200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-6-2010 41999+14.77%GDP 10.30%2010 15.7%2021 10.67%GDP 8.10%2020-2021 CAGR 7.26%GDP 5.1%2021 4 2009-2023 5 2010-2023 CAGR Wind Wind 2008-2023 2023 1.39%65.85%18.10%14.66%2008-2023 75.47%65.85%10.19%18.10%11.77%14.66%3.90%6.79%0%4%8%12%16%200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 7.24%5.34%0%4%8%12%16%2 CAGR 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-7-6 2023 7 2008-2023 Wind Wind 2008-2023 10.19%18.10%7.91pct 2008-2023 10.99%2008 6.82%8 2019-2023 9 2008-2023 Wind Wind 1.2 2023 61019 65.69%1.39%65.85%18.10%14.66%0%20%40%60%80%100%0%5%10%15%20%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%0400080001200016000200002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-8-+2010 1.20%2023 15.82%10 2010 11 2023 1 2 3 80.76%16.23%1.82%1.18%0.01%65.69%13.82%4.67%9.54%6.28%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-9-12 13 2010-2023 2022 2022 6-10 2022 10 3002-4.97%5-5.07%2022 6-10 1740-13.65%5-11.34%0%20%40%60%80%100%2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-10-14 2021-2022 15 2021/2022 1 2 2018-2022 2021 3 2022 2021 3 16 2021 3 17 2021/2022 CCTD/1 2 2018-2022 1.3-8%-4%0%4%8%12%010002000300040002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01002003004005001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 050010001500200025003000 01002003004005006007008001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-11-2024 2023 2024 18 2 2023 2.1+6.79%2023 6.79%CAGR 5.34%2023 92241+6.79%CAGR 5.34%2023 126.06 5.20%GDP 2023 20 97 31 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-12-19 2019-2023 20 2019-2023 Wind 2021 CAGR 7.26%Wind 2023 65.85%2023 60745.26+6.57%2022 5.02pct 2023 16694.19+12.35%18.10%21 2008-2023 Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0200004000060000800001000002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%2%4%6%8%10%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-13-22 2008-2023 23 2008-2023 Wind Wind 2023 1-2 3-12 2023 3-12+6.06%+11.12%2022 4.83pct 9.72pct 2023+24 2008-2023 3-12 25 2008-2023 3-12 Wind Wind 2.1.1 2023 2022 2022 7 28 2024 1 2023 3500 2023 99831.09-5%0%5%10%15%20%0100002000030000400005000060000700002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 0%5%10%15%20%25%0400080001200016000200002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 1.24%6.06%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%1.40%11.12%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-14-15.78%72432.59 15.82%26 2023+15.78%27 2023+15.82%Wind Wind 2023 28 2023 2023 3-12 39278.46 8.40%58.36%1 3814.06+7.52%+14.84%+7.55%2 5398.58+5.07%+1.27%+6.49%3 6652.83+6.79%4810.42+4.19%2023 3-12 906.09-1.99%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%020000400006000080000100000120000-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0150003000045000600007500090000 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-15-29 2007-2023 3-12 30 2007-2023 3-12 Wind Wind 31 2018-2023 3-12 32 2018-2023 3-12 Wind Wind 33 2018-2023 3-12 34 2007-2023 3-12 Wind Wind 2.1.2-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%090001800027000360004500020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-8%-4%0%4%8%12%3003203403603802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%28003000320034003600380040002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-15%0%15%30%45%60%010002000300040005000600020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-16-2023 42.5%57.5%2023 778Gwh 42.54%2019 811.38%2023 54115.8+57.48%2021 45%35 2019-2023 36 2015-2023 Wind Wind 2023 3-12 1548.21+29.32%350.54+75.21%3814.06+7.52%+14.84%+7.55%-0.46%2023 3-12 541.36+9.27%6.90+22.86%37 2018-2023 3-12 38 2018-2023 3-12 Wind wind-50%0%50%100%150%200%020000040000060000080000010000002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01000020000300004000050000600002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%7%14%21%28%35%05001000150020002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%50%100%150%200%01002003004002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-17-39 2018-2023 3-12 40 2018-2023 3-12 Wind Wind 2.1.3 2020 2020 145.60+22.35%2023 944.30 30.81%/2020 2023 2640+6.28%2023 3011.32 9.60%41 2018-2023 42 2018-2023 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%024682018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-40%0%40%80%120%160%200%020040060080010002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-10%-5%0%5%10%15%05001000150020002500300035002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-18-43 2.2 2023 92888+6.84%+16.19%/+36.41%2023 92888/65.69%/13.82%/4.67%/9.54%/6.28%/+6.48%/+3.90%/+16.19%/+36.41%-5.27%44 2012-2023 45 2012-2023 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0500100015002000250030002020 2021 2022 2023 0%4%8%12%0300006000090000)-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-19-46 2022-2023 2022/+2.75%/+5.78%2023+6.48%-5.27%2022/3561/2258 2.75%/5.78%2023-5.27%+6.48%2023 4466+1.99%10+2.31%3133-8.18%10-12.84%1.2 2023/47 2012-2023 48 2012-2023 65.92%65.69%15.59%13.82%4.81%4.67%8.77%9.54%4.92%6.28%0%20%40%60%80%100%2022 2023 0%4%8%12%0300006000090000120000150000-4%0%4%8%12%01500030000450006000075000)请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-20-49 2012-2023 50 2012-2023 51 2012-2023 2023 2022 2023 2023 1239-26.73%5-18.79%2023 4504-22.72%5-10.16%8 3133-8.18%5-11.60%5.27%2023 1416-27.46%5-14.61%2023 3958-4.21%5-3.72%2023 1467-17.12%5-10.76%2023 3995-5.17%5-7.71%.0%3%6%9%12%15%0900018000270003600045000201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023-7%0%7%14%21%28%35%02000400060008000100001200014000)-45%-30%-15%0%15%30%45%0100020003000400050002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-21-52 53 54 55 2018-2023 2023 4466+1.99%5+2.42%2022 2023 4.74+61.76%6564.44+34.59%5246.43 2022 285.56 2022 2023 11 330 2024 2025 30%50%2026 50%01002003004005001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 01002003004005006001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 01002003004005006001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010002000300040005000600070002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-22-56 57 2012-2023 Wind Wind 58 2012-2023 59 2012-2023 Wind Wind 60 2023:(Q5500,)2022 Wind/+23.45%01002003004005006007008001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%012345201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%02000400060008000-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%0200040006000800010000 0400800120016002000 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-23-2014 3.16 2023 15.82 2022 3696 36544+11.25%8605 39261+28.07%2023 8858+16.19%5833+36.41%61 2014-2023 62 2014-2023 63 2014-2023 64 2014-2023 3 2024 3.1 5%2024 5%0%10%20%30%40%010000200003000040000500002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%015000300004500060000750002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0%9%18%27%36%45%02000400060008000100002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023)0%30%60%90%120%150%180%010002000300040005000600070002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023)请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-24-2024 2023 92241 5%96853 4612 65 2024 4612 Wind 2024 2 125.20+28.17%2024 2024 89GW 171GW 2023 20.17%28.06%2024 66 2 67 2024 89GW 171GW Wind 2024 3 7 0%4%8%12%16%20%020000400006000080000100000120000-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 05000100001500020000250002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E2016-2024 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-25-2024 68 2019-2023 3-12 Wind 3.2 2024 5%2024-1.92%59845 0%2%4%6%8%10%09000180002700036000450002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-26-69 2024+5%-1.92%/1/2*+2023 2024 2023 10 17 2023 160 90 2023 2023 3 22 161.28 3.43 2024 165.52 8.69 2023 8 7-12+35.22%+35.03%2024 3 22-5.81%-1.26%3600 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E总装机量（万千瓦）220058 237692 256405 291960 328260 357060 379960 402860 426260 450260 474760总发电量（亿度）76236 83768 86941 92887 96853 100727 104756 108947 113305 117837 122550全社会用电量（亿度）75110 83128 86372 92241 96853 100727 104756 108947 113305 117837 122550yoy（%）10.68%3.90%6.80%5.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%火电发电量（亿度）51743 56463 57307 61019 59845 59780 60292 60975 61795 62630 63489yoy（%）9.12%1.49%6.48%-1.92%-0.11%0.86%1.13%1.34%1.35%1.37%占总发电量比重（%）67.87%67.40%65.91%65.69%61.79%59.35%57.55%55.97%54.54%53.15%51.81%火电装机量（万千瓦）124517 129678 133239 139032 148032 157032 160032 163032 166032 169032 172032yoy（绝对值，万千瓦）5161 3561 5793 9000 9000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000占总装机量比重（%）56.58%54.56%51.96%47.62%45.10%43.98%42.12%40.47%38.95%37.54%36.24%火电利用小时数测算（小时）4535 4419 4580 4304 4038 3840 3810 3790 3772 3756水电发电量（亿度）13552 13401 13550 12836 14073 14313 14613 14973 15363 15873 16503yoy（%）-1.11%1.11%-5.27%9.64%1.71%2.10%2.46%2.60%3.32%3.97%占总发电量比重（%）17.78%16.00%15.59%13.82%14.53%14.21%13.95%13.74%13.56%13.47%13.47%水电装机量（万千瓦）37016 39092 41350 42154 43154 44154 46154 48154 50654 53654 57154yoy（绝对值，万千瓦）2076 2258 804 1000 1000 2000 2000 2500 3000 3500 其中：抽水蓄能 3149 3639 4579 5094 5594 6094 7594 9094 11094 13094 15594 yoy（绝对值，万千瓦）490 940 515 500 500 1500 1500 2000 2000 2500占总装机量比重（%）16.82%16.45%16.13%14.44%13.15%12.37%12.15%11.95%11.88%11.92%12.04%水电利用小时数测算（小时）3522 3369 3074 3299 3279 3236 3175 3110 3043 2979 其中：常规水电 3600 3600 3600 3600 3600 3600 3600 抽水蓄能 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200 1200核电发电量（亿度）3662 4075 4178 4341 4498 4921 5576 6269 6962 7693 8463yoy（%）11.28%2.53%3.90%3.61%9.42%13.30%12.43%11.06%10.51%10.01%占总发电量比重（%）4.80%4.86%4.81%4.67%4.64%4.89%5.32%5.75%6.14%6.53%6.91%核电装机量（万千瓦）4989 5326 5553 5691 5991 6791 7691 8591 9491 10491 11491yoy（绝对值，万千瓦）337 227 138 300 800 900 900 900 1000 1000占总装机量比重（%）2.27%2.24%2.17%1.95%1.83%1.90%2.02%2.13%2.23%2.33%2.42%核电利用小时数测算（小时）7901 7681 7721 7700 7700 7700 7700 7700 7700 7700风电发电量（亿度）4665 6556 7624 8858 10446 12047 13230 14305 15380 16455 17530yoy（%）40.54%16.29%16.19%17.92%15.33%9.82%8.13%7.51%6.99%6.53%占总发电量比重（%）6.12%7.83%8.77%9.54%10.78%11.96%12.63%13.13%13.57%13.96%14.30%风电装机量（万千瓦）28153 32848 36544 44134 53034 59034 64034 69034 74034 79034 84034yoy（绝对值，万千瓦）4695 3696 7590 8900 6000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000占总装机量比重（%）12.79%13.82%14.25%15.12%16.16%16.53%16.85%17.14%17.37%17.55%17.70%风电利用小时数测算（小时）2149 2197 2196 2150 2150 2150 2150 2150 2150 2150光伏发电量（亿度）2611 3270 4276 5833 7992 9666 11046 12426 13806 15186 16566yoy（%）25.24%30.76%36.41%37.02%20.94%14.28%12.49%11.11%10.00%9.09%占总发电量比重（%）3.42%3.90%4.92%6.28%8.25%9.60%10.54%11.41%12.18%12.89%13.52%光伏装机量（万千瓦）25343 30656 39261 60949 78049 90049 102049 114049 126049 138049 150049yoy（绝对值，万千瓦）5313 8605 21688 17100 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000 12000占总装机量比重（%）11.52%12.90%15.31%20.88%23.78%25.22%26.86%28.31%29.57%30.66%31.61%光伏利用小时数测算（小时）1168 1223 1164 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 1150 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-27-14073+9.64%2023 1237 70 2023 71/Wind Wind 72/73 2014-2023 Wind 2024 3747 2023 44134+20.77%60949+55.24%2024 8900 17100 2024 2150 1150 2023 2023+2024/2 2024 2023+2024 2024 10446+17.92%7992+37.02%3747 1401501601701802023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-03:0200004000060000800001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016-2023 2022 2023 202401000020000300004000050000600001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016-2023 2022 2023 202409001800270036004500090018002700360045002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-28-1 2024+5%4612 10 1237 3747 4984 2024 59845-1.92%2024 59845-1.92%2024 2 7451.5+22.86%25 579.7+4.92%3 4 CCTD 16260+6.2%2024 74 2 75 CCTD+Wind CCTD 76 25 77 2023(Q5500,)CCTD Wind/-60%-30%0%30%60%90%02000400060008000 2 19987 16160 5000800011000140001700020000230001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 202401002003004005006007008002021 2022 2023 20246008001,0001,2001,4002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-03:(Q5500,)请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-29-4 2024 2024 1 2 H+A H+A 3 4 5 2 2024 3 22 PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 815(18.29)74.90 89.25 102.94/10.9 9.1 7.9 172 4.25 16.42 17.70 19.21 40.4 10.5 9.7 8.9 112 1.03 3.95 6.83 7.97 108.9 28.4 16.4 14.1 362 10.82 30.70 36.37 39.95 33.5 11.8 10.0 9.1 288 17.62 25.55 31.80 35.30 16.4 11.3 9.1 8.2 214 8.03 10.94 18.02 20.97 26.6 19.5 11.9 10.2 80(1.99)6.10 7.70 10.40/13.1 10.4 7.7 660 1.00 56.83 70.03 79.33 660.9 11.6 9.4 8.3 1,413(73.87)154.14 167.09 174.59/9.2 8.5 8.1 894 28.25 73.12 87.97 102.18 31.6 12.2 10.2 8.7*524(4.10)24.94 44.83 5