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20240325_海通证券_有色金属行业：中国仍是铜消费主力海外铜消费有望高增长_31页.pdf

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20240325_海通证券_有色金属行业：中国仍是铜消费主力海外铜消费有望高增长_31页.pdf

SAC S0850522120002 SAC S0850520010002 2024 3 25 IWCC 23 10 24 2588 2.6%24 27.2 2.0%8.0 2.7%5840 12-22 39.0%49.1%22 12.1%21-22 3 22 2171.60/24.59/+0.4%-2.5%3 5.25%5.5%19 9 4.5%4.75%25 3 15-3 22 LME-2.5%1.4%-3.3%SHFE-1.1%0.5%0.5%3 22 LME 8847/2309/2483/SMM SMM Arcadium 3 22 11.7/9.9/SMM Arcadium Lithium Fenix SaldeVida 3 22 35.6/3 15-3 122+2.4%2 XVCXuNmRpMrQpRnOqNqPpO8OaO7NpNmMmOnRfQmMmPiNoMrPaQpPuMMYsOwPvPsPoR3 Wind 2024/3/15 2024/3/22/11.1 11.7 5.1%/10.1 10.9 7.7%/9.8 9.9 1.3%LME/1.8 1.7-4.3%SHFE/14.2 13.5-5.0%/3.1 3.1 0.0%/945 945 0.0%/22.7 23.2 2.2%MB/13.6 13.7 0.2%MB/16.9 16.9 0.0%LME/9074 8847-2.5%LME/2277 2309 1.4%LME/2566 2483-3.3%LME/2131 2037-4.4%LME/2.9 2.8-3.3%SHFE/7.3 7.2-1.1%SHFE/1.9 1.9 0.5%SHFE/2.1 2.1-1.2%SHFE/1.6 1.6-0.5%SHFE/22.6 22.7 0.5%A00/1.9 1.9 0.7%/3406 3404-0.1%2024/3/15 2024/3/22/2163 2172 0.4%/25.2 24.6-2.5%COMEX/2159 2167 0.3%COMEX/25.4 24.8-2.2%/34.8 35.6 2.4%:45%-50%/3425 3335-2.6%/9.1 9.1 0.0%/0.2 0.2 2.8%/0.5 0.5-1.7%:55%/12.5 12.5 0.4%:50/9950 9950 0.0%:99.999%/7000 7000 0.0%99.6%/51.6 51.6 0.0%/2300 2300 0.0%/1.4 1.3-1.5%/2.0 1.9-1.0%:99.99%/5.5 5.6 2.8%:99.995%/1985 2040 2.8%1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.4 U0aFPx4UXBtW59wFfACWwrzkDSe1RnSOm2svFrHBRVmbTRAIIuvRragrVk5uFRvd IWCC 23 10 24 2588 2.6%24 27.2 2.0%8.0 2.7%5840 12-22 39.0%49.1%22 12.1%21-22 5-150-100-50050100150 IWCC-2023 1613 2000 737%21%2023 47%14%12%8%8%7%2024 5000 6 Wind SMM 2023 47%14%12%8%8%11%-10-505101520253035400200400600800100012001400160020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 YoY(%)2023 297.6 20-23 8%12-23 1%2030 5840 2000 7 15 IWCC-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003502012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY(%)2023 170 2000 44%-2%2023 45%22%16%10%7%2000 2000 8 2023 Wind USGS 45%22%16%10%7%-2000%-1500%-1000%-500%0%500%1000%050100150200250300350 YoY(%)GDP 2022 112 20-22 8%12-22 2%2022 GDP 30.91/6.16/9 Wind IWCC Mysteel-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0204060801001202012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY(%)05101520253035402012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GDP/2023 54 20-23 9%2022 GDP 14/3.35/2013 GDP 10 Wind Mysteel-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%01020304050602013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YoY(%)051015202530352013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022:GDP/1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.11 12 Wind 2024/3/15-2024/3/22 3/15-3/22 2.08%2024/3/15-2024/3/22 2024/3/15-2024/3/22-0.001%-2.08%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%A-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%13 Wind 2024/3/15-2024/3/22 3/15-3/22 2.08%2024/3/15-2024/3/22 2024/3/15-2024/3/22 0%4%8%12%16%20%-10%-5%0%-10%-5%0%5%Pilbara Allkem SQM 14 1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.15 Wind CPI%COMEX SHFE 3/15-3/22 0.4%3503703904104304504704905105301500170019002100230022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03COMEX/SHFE/80901001101201600170018001900200021002200230022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/350045005500650075001520253022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03COMEX/SHFE/0123456024681022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 CPI 16 Wind 3/15-3/22 87.22 SPDR iShares ETF%34566070809010022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/-3-2-1012322/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 10Y-2Y 10Y-3M 01002003004005006007008009000123456789102004 2009 2014 2019 2024:3804304805308001000120022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03SPDR ETF iShares ETF 17 1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.18 Wind LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%/LME SHFE 567860008000100001200022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/020406022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE SHFE COMEX 6.57.07.5M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/03/15 2024/03/2219 Wind LME 3/15-3/22 1.4%A00/LME SHFE 1.41.82.22.6150025003500450022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/0408012016022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE COMEX 20003000400012322/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03A00/1.801.851.901.95M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/03/15 2024/03/2220 Wind LME 3/15-3/22 3.3%LME SHFE LME SHFE LME SHFE 1.52.53.5200030004000500022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/020406022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 102030405012345622/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/04000800012000160002000022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 1.31.41.51.61.71.8150020002500300022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/01020304022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 21 1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.22 Wind 3/15-3/22 5.1%/61014182222/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM81148121620102030405022/08 23/02 23/08 24/02NCM111 NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 23 Wind/LME SHFE 3/15-3/22 2.7%MB 0102030024622/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME/SHFE/0102022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03LME SHFE 90011001300150017003456722/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/13.514.014.5M M+1 M+2 M+3 M+4 M+5 M+6 M+7 M+8 M+92024/03/15 2024/03/221020304050203040506022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/MB/MB/24 1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.25 Wind 3/15-3/22 2.4%/355575951150.00.51.01.52.022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03/567891010002000300040005000600022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03:45%-50%/910111213148000850090009500100001050022/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03:5 0/:5 5%/18002000220024002600455565758522/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 99.6%/024601234522/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03 10001200140016001800200022003456722/03 22/09 23/03 23/09 24/03:9 9.9 9%/:9 9.9 9 5%/26 1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.27:2023:2023:2023 2024-3-23 2023 1862.69 7.68%82.50 35.98%62.33 2.73%2024-3-23 23 211.19 5.38%216.17 10.68%2024-3-23 23 81.06 3.29%14.24 26.79%14.11 37.21%28 1.2.3/15-3/22 2.08%3.3.1 3/15-3/22 0.4%3.2 LME 3/15-3/22 2.5%3.3 3/15-3/22 5.1%3.4 3/15-3/22 2.4%4.5.29 SAC S0850522120002 021-23219406 Email SAC S0850520010002 021-23154394 Email 30 021-23219383 Email 021-23185845 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%31

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