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20240425_东海证券_铜行业深度报告：上游供应偏紧铜业进入景气区间_23页.pdf

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20240425_东海证券_铜行业深度报告：上游供应偏紧铜业进入景气区间_23页.pdf

HTTP:/LONGONE Table_Reportdate 2024 04 25 table_invest Table_NewTitle Table_Authors S0630521110001 S0630522020001 table_stockTrend table_product 1.2022 8.86 21%40%2022 2600 65%2022 2181.1 2021 3.39%2022 520 220 2022 2021 2022 36.7%ICSG 2022 2470.3 87%2800 70%50%2019 300 TC-39%-30%-21%-12%-3%6%15%23-04 23-07 23-10 24-01:(0724)300 HTTP:/LONGONE 2/23 1.4 1.1.4 1.2.4 1.3.7 1.3.1.7 1.3.2.2021.8 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.11 3.12 3.1.12 3.2.13 3.3.15 3.4.16 4.17 5.17 5.1.17 5.2.19 5.3.21 5.4.21 6.22 7.22 XVEVzQsPnOpOrPmPnQtMoP9PdN7NpNnNoMqMiNoOsOfQpNsM7NnNzQvPqNnPMYsPnM HTTP:/LONGONE 3/23 1%.4 2%.4 3.5 4.5 5.6 6-.6 7.7 8.7 9 ICSG%.7 10 2022.8 11 Grasberg.9 12 Grasberg%.9 13.10 14.10 15 2023.10 16.11 17%.12 18.12 19%.13 20.13 21 GDP%.14 22 PMI/.15 23%.15 24%.15 25%.16 26.16 27 ICSG%.17 28 LME 3/.17 29 LME 3/.18 30 300%.19 31 ROE%.20 32 ROE.20 33 ROE.20 34 ROE.20 35%.21 36.21 37%.22 38 TC/.22 1 2022-Grasberg.8 2-.9 3 2022.11 4 2022.12 5 2021 2023.16 6.21 HTTP:/LONGONE 4/23 1.1.1.2022 8.9 1.9 21%9700 11%8100 9%6200 7%36.4%2022 2700 4%2015 2022 2022 1.14%2022 8.9 1%2%ENI ENI 1.2.2022 2196 1700 Escondida Collahuasi El Teniente Cerro Verde Antamina Las Bambas Buenavista del Cobre Escondida 1990 57.5%30%2022 100 2021 6%Collahuasi 44%44%Escondida 2022 155.3 7.07%-190.5 8.68%157.4 7.17%105.81 4.82%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001000002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%17%34%5%10%15%11%8%CTNUBxmJHRm4EaLr5XsVTMiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfbQ0SPa6G0io3Tq/8vkJ7hU HTTP:/LONGONE 5/23 3 2022 520 7.5%2010 2022-0.3%2022 220 4.3%2010 2022 4.8%2022 190 0.5%4.0%4 ENI Codelco 2022 155.3 4%2004 0.71%20220 50 100 150 200 250-2022 20210200400600800100012001400160018002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 HTTP:/LONGONE 6/23 0.62%2023 140-Freeport-McMoRan 2021 2022 62.5%23.1%-PT-Freeport-Indonesia 48.76%Grasberg 2022 35 25 2022 Grasberg 72.58 Freeport-McMoRan-2022 5 6-BHP Escondida 57.5%Antamina 33.75%Olympic Dam 100%2023 171.7 2022 9.1%Olymipic Dam 2022 4-6 2023 Glencore 2021 2023 119.6 105.8 101 2023 Lomas Bayas Antamina Collahuasi 3.32%Katanga 2023 4.70%05101520253035404550El Teniente RadomiroTomicChuquicamata Andina Ministro Hales2020 2021 202201020304050607080North America South America Grasberg2020 2021 2022 HTTP:/LONGONE 7/23 7 8 2023 2022 2023 2022 2181.1 3.39%9 ICSG%Bloomberg ICSG 1.3.1.3.1.Escondida 2022 Escondida Grasberg Cerro Verde 2021 Grasberg 020406080100120Olympic Dam Pampa Norte Escondida2021 2022 2023051015202530Antamina African Collahuasi2021 2022 2023-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%050010001500200025001999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020ICSG:()%HTTP:/LONGONE 8/23 10 2022 Bloomberg 1.3.2.2021 2021 Grasberg Grasberg 2022 2021 23.1%62.5%-Freeport-McMoRan 48.8%PT-Freeport-Indonesia PT-FI 2018 PT-FI 2031 2041 PT-FI 2023 200 2021 Grasberg Grasberg Kucing Liar 2020 8.77 2022 19.26 Grasberg Kuring Liar 2021 2022 1400 2021 Grasberg 15.16 2020 73%2022 27%Grasberg Block Cave 1 2022-Grasberg%GBC 309 1.26 0.92 3.15 501 1.00 0.65 2.81 DMLZ 77 0.90 0.75 4.13 305 0.71 0.58 3.51 BG 18 2.50 0.99 15.18 31 2.14 0.92 12.95 KL 93 1.05 0.96 5.26 288 0.96 0.85 4.37 Freeport-McMoRan 020406080100120140Escondida CorePanamaOlympic Dam Grasberg Collahuasi Antamina2020 2021 2022 HTTP:/LONGONE 9/23 11 Grasberg 12 Grasberg%2021-21 12.5 Grasberg 2021 Grasberg 100%2022 17 Grasberg 8-200 2024-370 2-2020 2021 2022 428 342 597 183 162 304 1161 1296 1576 105 222 806 19 6 33 65 87 154-60%-2022-2023 52 23 18 PT-FI 2023 24/2.2.1.2023 2632.04 70%2023 1471.1 0200400600800100012001400160018002019 2020 2021 2022Grasberg Block Cave Deep Mill Level ZoneBig Gossan Kucing LiarBig Gossan-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%05101520252016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%HTTP:/LONGONE 10/23 2020 2020-2021 13 Bloomberg 2017 2023 2023 2753.55 8.8%2022 931 1403.9 56%25-30 2022 80.2%14 15 2023 0500100015002000250030002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 607080901001101201301402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0501001502002503000102030405060708090100Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec HTTP:/LONGONE 11/23 16 ICSG 2.2.2022 Escondida El Teniente Morenci 3 2022(Escondida 100.4 Grasberg-72.6 Morenci-66.7 El Teniente 40.5 Chuquicamata 26.8 Collahuasi 25.1 Olympic Dam 13.8 15.6 15.0 11.5 6.3 5.2 WIND ICSG 2023 2824.7 77.9%3226.3 83.3%HTTP:/LONGONE 12/23 2017 2023 2022 8.87%2022 168 4 2022 93 60 50 40 40 40 35 El Teniente 40 Morenci 40 Chuquicamata 45 Birla 50 Bloomberg 2018 2024 30 2023 1238.43 45.42%2018 8 17%18 Bloomberg Bloomberg 3.3.1.30%2023 6%9%14%15%45%11%020406080100120101520253035402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 HTTP:/LONGONE 13/23 75%2023 38%2023 1465.1 4%2023 130 50%19%20 Bloomberg Bloomberg 3.2.2008 2016 GDP 0.42 2013 1 2002-2013 GDP GDP 2 2013 GDP 2020 GDP GDP GDP GDP 0.83 2020 30%30%15%13%12%0510152025303540452017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 HTTP:/LONGONE 14/23 21 GDP%iFinD 2022 PMI 50 2023 PMI 50 2023 PMI 47.4 PMI 49 2020-2021 PMI PMI 2021 50 PMI 2020 PMI PMI 0%5%10%15%20%25%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 GDP%HTTP:/LONGONE 15/23 22 PMI/Bloomberg iFinD 3.3.0.2%-0.5%1%80%2019 2023 2023 0.56%23%24%Wind 200030004000500060007000800090001000011000354045505560652005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 PMI PMI PMI/0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5CerroVerdeGrasberg Collahuasi Katanga Mutanda Mopani Escondida OlympicDam 0.500.550.600.650.700.752019 2020 2021 2022 2023 HTTP:/LONGONE 16/23 0.75%2023 80%25%26 iFinD Bloomberg 3.4.5 2021 2023 2021.11 57%4.8 2022.1 2025 2035 2019.1 10 2019.9 2021.12.2025 400 2022.6-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%05001000150020002500300035002012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%02004006008001000120014000204060801001202012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 HTTP:/LONGONE 17/23 2023.8 4.2017 2020 LME 4600-8000/2020 10600/2021 9000/2022 3 2023 7 6.9%15.54%2017 1 2017-2018 2 2018-2020 COVID-19 3 2021 4 2022 27 ICSG%28 LME 3/Bloomberg Bloomberg 5.5.1.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201401601802002009 2012 2015 2018 2021ICSG%0200040006000800010000120002004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2023 HTTP:/LONGONE 18/23 300 500 0.77 2019 400%2021 2021 75000/LME 10000/2023 29 LME 3/iFinD 2019 300 1.2019-2020 300 2020 2.2021 2021 2251 31.3%248 128.6%-20-9.14 2.5 16 2021 70.78%83.1%50.09%3.2021 2023 300 300-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2019/4/2 2020/3/13 2021/2/24 2022/2/7 2023/1/12 2023/12/25 LME%HTTP:/LONGONE 19/23 4.2023 2024 300 400%30 300%iFinD 5.2.2019-2023 2021 2021 2020-2021 ROE 2020-2021 ROE ROE 2022 ROE 2022 3 2022 ROE-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019/4/2 2020/3/13 2021/2/24 2022/2/7 2023/1/12 2023/12/25%HTTP:/LONGONE 20/23 31 ROE%32 ROE iFinD iFinD ROE 2022 2022 LME 7724.4/19%2023 2023 ROE 2023 2250.08 10%12%2023 100%23%2023 ROE ROE 21.43%ROE ROE ROE 2019 2022 2023 18/2023 356.3 2023 62.5%ROE 33 ROE 34 ROE iFinD iFinD 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%891011121314152019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%1.52.02.53.03.54.02019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02468101214162019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%510152025302019 2020 2021 2022 2023ROE%HTTP:/LONGONE 21/23 5.3.2018-2022 2023 1.6%2.2%2018 2023 267.18 23.84 8.83 2023 35%36 iFinD iFinD 2022 46%11%10%6206-2022 130 6 2019 2020 2021 2022 37.0 45.3 58.4 88 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.4 8.5 9.8 7.75 6.62 2019 2020 2021 2022 140.1 142.2 159.7 162.9 146.4 155.6 164.2 183.9 111.5 130.9 134.7 134.9 2019-2022 5.4.0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0%1%1%2%2%3%3%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%05010015020025030005101520253035402018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 HTTP:/LONGONE 22/23 2024 11.4/85%9000/TC 37%38 TC/Bloomberg WIND 6.2023 2024 TC 7.-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%020040060080010001200140016002018/1/31 2020/1/31 2022/1/31 2024/1/31%0200040006000800010000120000204060801001201401602014/1/31 2016/7/31 2019/1/31 2021/7/31 2024/1/31-TC/HTTP:/LONGONE 23/23 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333275 18221959689 8610 59707105 18221959689 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089

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