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20240423_民生证券_电新行业EV观察系列160：3月国内新能车市场增势强劲同比增速超30%_32页.pdf

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20240423_民生证券_电新行业EV观察系列160：3月国内新能车市场增势强劲同比增速超30%_32页.pdf

*EV 1603 30%2024 04 23*1 3 3 86.3 88.3 28.1%35.3%86.0%85.1%32.8%81.0 31.1%81.3%3 37.0%6.0pcts 3 70.9 29.5%82.5%3 41.6%7.4pcts 3 25.8%94.6%3 75.8GWh 73.8%39.8%3 35.0GWh 25.8%94.6%3 23.6GWh 24.1%114.6%67.6%3 11.3GWh 29.7%62.9%32.4%3 15.54GWh 44.87%3 9.28GWh 26.79%TOP3 3 2.31GWh,6.66%TOP3 77.6%24 3 290.9 2 8.3 23 4 24 3 7.9 24 1-3 71.6 178.3 1 2.5 24 3 37.9 2 1.4 52.3%3.9%TOP10 24 3 931.2 59.4%290.9 48.6%640.3 64.9%1ZDWuNsPsRrQtNnOtOtMrQbRcM7NpNmMtRmQfQrRtPfQoMnQ8OmNrQvPpOpRxNqNoQ*2 1 a b c d e 2 4680 4680 210Wh/kg 91 270Wh/kg a b c LIFSI 3 2-3 a b c 4 a b 1 2*C O N T E N T S3 25.8%94.6%02033 01 04130405 kpTSIFhD1dM2NCOXehRPSsiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfaQ9z2dLDsWBcqXyYCEolEj*3 01.4*3 2024 3 250 3 268.7 269.4 4.0%9.9%78.4%70.2%2024 3 3 86.3 88.3 28.1%35.3%86.0%85.1%32.8%24 24 24 3 5 01 3 5 1 23-24 3 2 23-24 3-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02000004000006000008000001000000120000014000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024*3 3 3 81.0 31.1%81.3%3 37.0%23 3 31.0%6.0pcts 24 2 34.5%1.5pcts 3 51.1%33.6%3 70.9 29.5%82.5%3 41.6%23 3 34.2%7.4pcts 24 2 35.8%5.8pcts 3 63.3%28.4%24 3 016 3 2024 3%4 2024 3%3 0%20%40%60%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0%20%40%60%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024*3017 5 23-24 3 6 23-24 3%3 3 54.6 7.0%56.6 15.5%3 31.7 94.6%31.7 95.1%3 64.1%2.5pcts 3 35.9%2.5pcts-40%0%40%80%120%160%01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 2024 0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 20232024 2024*3018 7 2024 3%8 19-23 24 3%3 A0 B 3 50.4 10.6%89.0%3 22.9 84%92%3 B 16.1 16%32%A00+A0 A00 7.3 27%59%14%A0 13.9 28%A 11.1 22%B 14%28%22%32%4%A00A0ABC0%20%40%60%AOO AO A B C2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 24 1-3*3019 9 24 3 3 3 11.6%2 33.6%6.1%1 05000100001500020000250003000035000*30110 10 24 3 11 24 3 3 24 3 26.03 35.4%36.6%6.24 18.6%6.1%6.6%13 4 2 86.7%76.6%80.6%050000100000150000200000250000300000050000100000150000200000250000300000350000*3 24 3 31 A8 Pro DM-i UP 07 PLUS ID.4 CROZZ mini EH7 UNI-Z PLUS MEGA C10 C01 T03-AION Y SU7 11 2024 0111 1 2024 3 B SUV MEGA C MVP A8 A C10 B/SUV Pro DM-i A SUV C01 C UP A0 SUV T03 A00 07 B SUV-AION Y A SUV PLUS A SUV SU7 C ID.4 CROZZ A SUV 11C SUV mini A00 EH7 C UNI-Z A SUV PLUS A0 3*3 2025 1379 CAGR 40.7%2021-2022 2023 950 2024 1-3 194.6 2025 1379 21-25 CAGR 40.7%44%0112 12 13%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E国内新能车销量（万辆）国内新能车销量增速0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E国内新能车销量（万辆）渗透率3*3 25.8%94.6%02.13*3 3 75.8GWh 73.8%39.8%24 1-3 184.6GWh 33.5%2024 3 35.0GWh 25.8%94.6%24 1-3 85.2GWh 29.4%30.9Wh 36.2%47.8%54.3GWh 63.8%20.9%3 023 25.8%94.6%14 14 23-24 3 MWh 15 23-24 3 MWh-100%-50%0%50%100%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001000001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 2024-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01000020000300004000050000600001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2024 2023 2023 2024 2024*3 24 3 TOP1 24 3 TOP2 2024 3 TOP15 34.54GWh 99.71%15.54GWh 44.87%3 9.28GWh 26.79%2 TOP3 3 2.31GWh 6.66%TOP3 77.6%2 78.6%1 pct 42 1 0215 16 2024 3 TOP15 3 25.8%94.6%44.87%26.79%6.66%5.24%2.99%2.97%2.86%1.60%1.57%1.28%1.26%1.14%0.26%0.16%0.06%LG*3 20 3 2021 7 50%24 3 24.2GWh 32.0%33.1%63.3%3 51.4GWh 67.8%42.9%79.4%11.3GWh 32.4%29.7%62.9%23.6GWh 67.6%24.1%114.6%0216 17 23-24 3 MWh 18 23-24 3 MWh 3 25.8%94.6%0%20%40%60%80%0100002000030000400005000060000700001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 24 1 24 2 24 3 0%20%40%60%80%050001000015000200002500030000350001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 24 1 24 2 24 3*3 NCM NCA 0217 mAh/g 130-140 150-220 140-150 100-120 2 Model 3 Model 3 Model Y Power Day-2021 10 3 25.8%94.6%*0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0 GWh%3 2024 1-2 92.4GWh 27.0%2024 1-2 TOP10 84.4GWh 91.3%6 60.8%TOP1 2024 1-2 35.5GWh 38.4%2024 1-2 12.1GWh 13.1%3 23.8%0218 19 2024 1-2 GWh SNE 3 25.8%94.6%*3 2025 731GWh 20-25 63%2025 1190GWh 20-25 54%0219 20 2020-2025 GWh 21 2020-2025 GWh 6315532044856373101002003004005006007008002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E137297506702906119002004006008001000120014002020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E3 25.8%94.6%*30220 22 GGII 3 24 2 24 3/49.0%/67.5%/13.0%/55.0%/52.8%/55.4%40.1%/39.0%/2.5%/52.0%/33.0%/30.3%3 25.8%94.6%*03.21*3 1 2.5 24 1-3 71.6 178.3 1:2.5 24 3 24 2 8.3 48.6%24 3 290.9 127.8 163.1 23 4 24 3 7.9 03 22 23 21-24 3 24 21-24 3 KWh EVCIPA EVCIPA 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%050100150200250300350400450 KWh 0%20%05000001000000150000020000002500000300000035000002020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/042023/072023/102024/01*3 EVCIPA 24 3 TOP10 70.3%2 3 TOP10 24 3 565250 3 24 3 37.9 1.4 52.3%3.9%24 3 8.17 KWh 03 23 25 2024 3 TOP10 26 2024 3 TOP10 KWh EVCIPA EVCIPA 0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000 0102030405060*3 24 3 3685 24 2 40 24 3 TOP10 444 12.05%430 11.67%TOP3 375 10.18%TOP3 33.89%3 TOP2 3 2404 24 2 21 694 24 2 3 306 24 2 15 03 24 27 24 3 TOP10(28 24 3 EVCIPA EVCIPA 0%4%8%12%16%050100150200250300350400450500 050010001500200025003000*3 2024 1-3+71.6 13.2%18.3 13.8%53.3 13%24 3 931.2 59.4%290.9 48.6%640.3 64.9%03 25 29 24 3 EVCIPA 290.9640.3*04.26*3 2024 4680 CTB 24 1149 1 2 4680 4680 210 Wh/kg 91 270Wh/kg LiFSI 3 2-3 4 04 27*05.28*305 29 1 2*THANKS 30 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 19 100005 6001 32 05:518026 S0100521100006 S0100523050004 S010052312002 S0100122060007 S0100122060013 S0100522120001 S0100122120021 S0100524010003 S0100123020010*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*1431

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