20240409_国泰君安_机械行业：备更新利好工控复苏第三方检测受益低空经济_31页.pdf
1+3-4 2021 3 2023-1.8%2024 4 8 YWFUvMtOpMpOpRmPtOoRpO7N8QbRtRmMpNsOjMpPsOlOnMpP9PmMyQxNtRpQNZmMqO2 3 mKHwykOUp8vBjFYXzZUYeMiCYydMK33bsDsO0TSEcfaDsDHd+xDcsWkCKEM/oeGm 4 122.8 117.0 102.8 127.6 153.6 160.9 168.7-4.7%-12.2%24.1%20.4%4.8%4.8%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0.050.0100.0150.0200.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E yoy,33%,15%,8%,8%,7%,5%,3%,3%,1%,17%2023 PLC 168.72023Q3 PLC 15%8%2023 214 23322321435%-5%-4%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002502021 2022 2023 yoy2023Q3 30%4%,30%,9%,8%,7%,6%,5%,4%,4%,2%,2%,25%2023 304 56 310 31630455 595617%2%-4%17%8%-5%-10%0%10%20%01002003004002021 2022 2023 yoy yoy2023Q3 18%5%ABB,19%,18%,16%,7%,6%,5%,3%,3%,3%,1%,21%5 2023 OEM-1.8%-7.5%+1.7%6-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2008-012008-062008-112009-042009-092010-022010-072010-122011-052011-102012-032012-082013-012013-062013-112014-042014-092015-022015-072015-122016-052016-102017-032017-082018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-012023-062023-11:3-4 3-4 3-4 2021 3 3 4 4 7 2024 3 PMI 50.80%2023 2024 2+9.4%7.7%2023 12+4.6%+3.6%3035404550552018-12018-52018-92019-12019-52019-92020-12020-52020-92021-12021-52021-92022-12022-52022-92023-12023-52023-92024-1:PMI%:PMI:%:PMI:%:PMI:%305070901101301502018-32018-72018-112019-32019-72019-112020-32020-72020-112021-32021-72021-112022-32022-72022-112023-32023-72023-11:-35-15525452018-22018-62018-102019-22019-62019-102020-22020-62020-102021-22021-62021-102022-22022-62022-102023-22023-62023-102024-2:%:%-18-8212222018-32018-72018-112019-32019-72019-112020-32020-72020-112021-32021-72021-112022-32022-72022-112023-32023-72023-11:%:%PMI PMI 8 2024/3/7 90%75%9 PLC DCS PLC DCS 变频器 伺服汇川技术 中控技术 英威腾 禾川科技 伟创电气 雷赛智能 信捷电气 正弦电气 西门子 ABB 施耐德 罗克韦尔 霍尼韦尔 安川 松下 欧姆龙 三菱 国产厂商海外厂商工控厂商控制层 驱动 层+执行 层 10 PLC PLC 32.8%34.0%34.8%36.5%38.1%38.5%38.7%17.0%15.6%13.6%13.6%13.3%12.5%10.8%50.2%50.4%51.6%49.9%48.6%49.0%50.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 27.0%26.8%30.8%39.3%42.1%49.8%55.8%54.8%54.2%50.1%43.0%38.6%30.3%26.3%18.2%19.0%19.1%17.7%19.3%19.9%17.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30.2%28.8%29.4%32.8%32.7%34.2%39.7%31.7%29.9%29.1%26.6%25.1%20.5%17.5%38.1%41.4%41.5%40.6%42.1%45.3%42.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6.5%5.6%5.9%6.6%6.3%7.1%6.1%30.2%28.6%28.6%32.3%33.5%29.3%27.4%63.3%65.9%65.5%61.1%60.2%63.7%66.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 2023/2022%8.1 137%116.4 40%36%2.5 35%63.5 47%38%36%7.6 61%14.4 11%41%26%6.0 29%30%2.0 184%6.7-7%49%33%0.7 21%12.7 11%45%38%7.2 6%33%0.1 46%3.3-23%37%29%12 WindEPS EPS Wind 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E688320.SH 28.17 0.65 0.90 1.24 43.34 31.30 22.72 688777.SH 44.14 1.36 1.70 2.17 32.50 25.98 20.36-002334.SZ 7.96 0.52 0.67 0.83 15.24 11.93 9.57-002979.SZ 17.22 0.44 0.66 0.87 39.34 26.11 19.70-603416.SH 28.97 1.59 1.99 2.56 18.17 14.53 11.33-688698.SH 27.31 0.99 1.35 1.77 27.56 20.27 15.40-EPS PE13 14 2024 4 8 PE TTM 24.43X 5 3.53%PB 2.55X 5 3.14%PE-TTM24.43X 3.53%2024 4 8 PB 2.55X 3.14%2024 4 801000200030004000500060007000800090000204060801001202019-04-122019-06-212019-08-302019-11-082020-01-172020-04-032020-06-122020-08-212020-10-302021-01-082021-03-192021-05-282021-08-062021-10-152021-12-242022-03-112022-05-202022-07-292022-10-142022-12-232023-03-102023-05-192023-07-282023-10-132023-12-222024-03-08 TTM 0100020003000400050006000700080009000024681012142019-04-122019-06-142019-08-162019-10-182019-12-202020-02-282020-04-302020-07-032020-09-042020-11-062021-01-082021-03-122021-05-142021-07-162021-09-172021-11-192022-01-212022-04-012022-06-022022-08-052022-10-142022-12-162023-02-242023-04-282023-06-302023-09-012023-11-102024-01-122024-03-22 15 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2065.1 2377.5 2810.5 3225.1 3585.9 4090.2 4275.8yoy 15.1%18.2%14.8%11.2%14.1%4.5%()3.6 3.8 4.3 5.3 5.7 6.8 6.5yoy 5.6%13.8%23.1%7.6%20.6%-5.0%33235 36237 39472 44007 48919 51949 52769yoy 9.0%8.9%11.5%11.2%6.2%1.6%()102.5 111.9 117.4 128.5 141.2 151.0 154.2yoy 9.2%4.9%9.4%9.9%7.0%2.1%()6115.4 6484.2 7120.7 7940.0 9092.8 10083.5 10423.5yoy 6.0%9.8%11.5%14.5%10.9%3.4%()2597.6 2916.5 3195.5 3681.2 4118.9 4525.9 4744.8yoy 12.3%9.6%15.2%11.9%9.9%4.8%)2597.6 2916.5 3195.5 3681.2 4118.9 4525.9 4744.8yoy 12.3%9.6%15.2%11.9%9.9%4.8%2022 4275.8 4.5%2017-2021 11.2%-18.2%16 2022 16.12%10.18%8.42%87.01%5.08%23.02%22.23%,16.12%,10.18%,8.42%,7.21%,5.63%,4.84%,4.59%,4.22%,2.72%,2.64%,33.42%87%35%23%22%19%18%15%14%12%11%10%10%8%8%8%8%7%6%6%5%3%3%3%2%1%-2%-2%-3%-3%-3%-6%-9%-14%-15%-20%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%()()()2022 2022 2022 17 2024/3/27 2024-2030(eVTOL)eVTOL eVTOl TC Type certificate PC Production Certificate AC Aircraft Certificate AC 18 QY Research 2023 38.7 12.7%2028 75.4 16.518.922.125.230.634.438.744.350.959.266.875.414.5%16.6%13.9%21.4%12.7%12.3%14.6%14.8%16.4%12.7%12.9%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070802017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E YOY19 2022 648 9.5%2017-2022 11.5%2023 6 37642749054059264813.6%14.7%10.3%9.5%9.5%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%01002003004005006007002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E YOY20 WindEPS EPS Wind 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E300012.SZ 12.55 0.54 0.62 0.74 23.24 20.24 16.96 300416.SZ 13.83 0.62 0.76 0.95 22.31 18.20 14.56 300354.SZ 41.22 1.13 1.49 1.91 36.48 27.66 21.58 002967.SZ 15.52 0.35 0.54 0.70 44.34 28.74 22.17 300887.SZ 12.20 0.45 0.71 0.93 27.24 17.13 13.18-601965.SH 19.50 0.82 0.99 1.17 23.76 19.70 16.68-300938.SZ 33.58 1.43 1.91 2.44 23.44 17.61 13.76-300572.SZ 13.75 0.25 0.57 0.97 54.16 24.12 14.19-EPS PE21 22 2023 1672 2023 249 2023 1672+6.8%249+12.8%98109.3121.6133.4173.6195.8220.8249280.8316.611.5%11.3%9.7%30.1%12.8%12.8%12.8%12.8%12.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002503003502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E2022E2023E2024E2025E YOY10361138122813441456155516721794191620349.8%7.9%9.4%8.3%6.8%7.5%7.3%6.8%6.2%00.020.040.060.080.10.12050010001500200025002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E yoy23 2024 4 8 575/575/1225/02004006008001000120014001600180020002019-1 2-12 2020-1 2-12 2021-1 2-12 2022-1 2-12 2023-1 2-12():/02004006008001000120014001600180020002019-1 2-12 2020-1 2-12 2021-1 2-12 2022-1 2-12 2023-1 2-12():/01000200030004000500060007000():/24 2022 2022 Q1 2022Q4 2024 4 8 140/450/41500/02000400060008000100001200014000160002021-03-22 2022-03-22 2023-03-22 2024-03-22:/01000020000300004000050000600002021-03-22 2022-03-22 2023-03-22 2024-03-22:/01000002000003000004000005000006000002021-03-22 2022-03-22 2023-03-22 2024-03-22:/25 2023 60.6%2020 86%15%2020 15%50.5%51.5%52.5%53.4%54.6%56.5%57.8%59.1%60.6%62.0%63.5%49.5%48.5%47.5%46.6%45.4%43.5%42.2%40.9%39.4%38.0%36.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E,24.8%,22.6%,22.3%,16.1%,14.2%26 WindEPS EPS Wind 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E002430.SZ 30.18 1.24 1.48 1.75 24.34 20.39 17.25 601369.SH 8.92 0.62 0.72 0.86 14.39 12.39 10.37 603173.SH 20.05 1.58 2.44 3.32 12.69 8.22 6.04 688146.SH 30.75 0.67 0.81 1.00 46.11 38.07 30.76-688268.SH 45.39 1.61 2.14 2.80 28.23 21.20 16.21-688106.SH 19.14 0.70 0.83 1.04 27.42 23.01 18.37-688548.SH 10.12 0.23 0.29 0.39 43.66 34.99 26.21-301286.SZ 30.72 0.55 0.91 1.31 55.61 33.72 23.48-EPS PE27 28 29 30
