雷电灾害风险区划技术规范DB46／T 465-2018.pdf
ICS 07.060 A 47 DB46 DB 46/T 4652018 Technical specifications for lightning disaster risk regionalization 2018-10-23 2018-12-01 DB46/T 4652018 I GB/T 1.1-2009 DB46/T 4652018 1 1 2 2.1 disaster-formative environment MZ/T 027-2011 3.4 2.2 hazard affected body MZ/T 027-2011 3.6 2.3 disaster information GB/T 26376-2010 4.4 2.4 lightning disaster frequency a-1 2.5 economic vulnerability modulus GDP km-2 2.6 vital vulnerability modulus km-2 2.7 DB46/T 4652018 2 thunderstorm data da-1 2.8 ground lightning density km-2a-1 GB 50057-2010 A.0.1 Ng 2.9 ground lightning intensity kA 2.10 mortality rate 10-6 a-1 2.11 rural population density km-2 2.12 R-Cluster analysis 2.13 Q-Cluster analysis 3 3.1 50kA 3.2 4 DB46/T 4652018 3 4.1 4.2 4.3 2kA 200kA 5km5km 4.4 GDP 4.5 1:250000 4.6 5 5.1 3.1 3.2 5.2 Pearson 0.6 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.4 0.01 5.5 6 6.1 6.1.1 5.2 6.1.2 6.2 6.2.1 1-3 1 DB46/T 4652018 4 2 3 6.2.2 7 7.1 Pearson 6.2 7.2 DB46/T 4652018 5 1 R Pearson DB46/T 4652018 6 A A A A.1 A.1 A.1/d 98.3 1951-2013 59.7 1961-2013 89.1 1959-2013 84.1 1953-2013 67.5 1959-2013 109.0 1959-2013 75.0 1963-2013 111.6 1953-2013 95.3 1962-2013 121.0 1959-2013 109.0 1963-2013 109.7 1959-2013 84.1 1966-2013 111.9 1959-2013 100.9 1956-2013 79.8 1956-2013 99.9 1966-2013 86.8 1962-2013 2014 GB50343-2012 3.1 A.2 A.2 A.2/d 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.1 0.6 2.1 7.9 18.1 18.7 17.5 17.3 11.8 3.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 8.3 9.5 9.2 12.3 11.7 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 7.4 16.1 15.4 13.7 17.6 12.0 3.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 6.9 15.4 14.2 12.5 15.9 12.1 4.4 0.6 0.1 DB46/T 4652018 7 0.0 0.3 0.9 4.5 11.0 11.4 10.1 13.5 11.1 4.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 8.2 17.6 17.4 18.8 20.5 17.0 6.3 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 4.0 9.6 10.3 10.6 14.9 15.1 7.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 10.3 19.8 18.2 19.7 20.0 14.9 4.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.7 7.3 16.4 16.8 17.8 17.5 12.6 4.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 10.5 20.9 21.0 21.9 21.5 15.8 4.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.3 9.7 19.4 18.9 19.0 20.0 14.1 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 10.1 19.2 18.2 18.5 20.3 15.0 4.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 5.9 13.6 11.8 14.5 16.1 14.4 5.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 10.7 19.9 17.5 19.3 20.0 15.0 5.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 8.5 17.4 16.7 17.7 18.8 14.2 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.9 12.6 14.7 13.3 15.9 13.2 4.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 5.9 16.5 16.6 17.1 19.4 16.5 5.7 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 6.0 13.2 13.1 13.4 17.2 14.7 6.8 0.8 0.0 DB46/T 4652018 8 B B B B.1 1999-2015 1999 29 5 24 13 4 9 2000 21 10 11 24 9 15 2001 32 13 19 34 11 23 2002 61 21 40 55 28 27 2003 88 19 69 40 16 24 2004 63 27 36 70 25 45 2005 48 21 27 46 15 31 2006 44 11 33 22 9 13 2007 90 18 72 58 15 43 2008 107 12 95 19 13 6 2009 88 14 74 18 9 9 2010 47 4 43 5 2 3 2011 9 1 8 1 1 0 2012 5 3 2 5 3 2 2013 13 7 6 10 7 3 2014 5 2 3 3 2 1 2015 4 1 3 2 1 1 754 189 565 425 170 255 DB46/T 4652018 9 C C C C.1 Pearson Pearson C.1 mkmkj jk i ikmkj jk i ikijx x x xx x x xr1 12 21.(C.1)ijr ikx i k jkx j k ix i jx j m C.2 C.2 21 mkjkik ijxx d.(C.2)ijd i j ikx i k DB46/T 4652018 10 jkx j k m C.3 Wards method Wards C.1 n-1 n-1 n-2 C.4 0.01 1%DB46/T 4652018 11 D D D D.1 SPSS 1998-2009 18 50kA Euclidean Distance Wards D.2 D.2.1 D.2.1.1 18 2009 D.2.1.2 50kA D.2.1.3 1998-2009 D.2.1.4 1998-2009 D.2.1.5 D.2.1.6 D.2.1.7 GDP D.2.2 18 SPSS“D.1 D.1 Td da-1 50KA Ng-2a-1 N a-1 P/a-1 C/-2 E/-2 1 0.238 0.252 2.319 1.223 3.526 3.649 2-0.287 0.505 0.010 1.840-0.133-0.064 3 1.596 1.020-0.199 2.008-0.122-0.064 4 0.096 0.243-0.507-0.004 0.424 0.077 5 0.799 1.283-0.451 0.499-0.050-0.331 6 0.893 2.368-0.402-0.903-0.216-0.418 7 1.029 0.062-0.144-0.508 0.209-0.162 DB46/T 4652018 12 8-0.582 0.912 0.626 0.103 0.209 0.186 9 0.439 0.559 2.522-1.178-1.015-0.729 10 1.065-0.327-0.710-0.903-0.932-0.681 11 0.935-1.132-1.123-1.178-0.860-0.675 12-0.594-1.023-0.556-0.286-0.579-0.265 13-1.072-1.051-0.402-0.004-0.370-0.232 14-0.311-1.331-0.710 1.223-0.447-0.523 15 0.285-0.942-0.556-0.843-0.673-0.598 16-1.545-0.119 0.878-0.233 0.231-0.033 17-0.878-0.363 0.010-0.903 0.198-0.180 18-2.105-0.915-0.605 0.049 0.600 1.043 D.3 R Td Ng N P C E SPSS“-Eucliidean E C D.1 D.1 D.4 SPSS“pearson”E C C D.2 DB46/T 4652018 13 D.2 Td Ng N P C E Td 1 Ng 0.434 1 N-0.060 0.301 1 P 0.000 0.153 0.073 1 C-0.163 0.159 0.486 0.408 1 E-0.199 0.062 0.505 0.409 0.967 1 D.5 Q D.5.1 17 D.3 D.3 85.000 63.500 47.511 35.193 25.937 20.311 15.659 12.636 9.854 10 7.280 11 5.336 12 4.014 13 2.904 14 1.904 15 1.063 16 0.614 17 0.166 D.5.2 SPSS“”“”Eucliidean”D.2 DB46/T 4652018 14 D.2 D.6 D.4 0.01 SPSS“-K“0.01 D.5 ward D.4 Td Ng N P E 0.238 0.252 2.319 1.223 3.649 0.619 1.084-0.310 0.688-0.160 0.750-0.356-0.002-0.922-0.569-1.013-0.556-0.108-0.007-0.001 D.5 1 1 0.000 2 2 1.546 3 2 1.844 4 2 1.129 5 2 0.587 6 2 2.083 7 3 0.781 8 2 1.397 DB46/T 4652018 15 9 3 2.720 10 3 0.783 11 3 1.403 12 4 0.720 13 4 0.365 14 4 1.706 15 3 0.935 16 4 1.396 17 4 1.041 18 4 1.535 D.7 D.6 D.6/a-1-2 10-4-2a-1 10-4-2a-1 100.2 0.207 16.269 26.753 103.3 0.035 17.002 13.046 108.9 0.014 2.650 11.563 77.8 0.039 9.853 10.577 D.8 D.8.1 D.7 D.7 D.7 0.1941 1.4887 0.72192 1.4865 3.89127 0.4212-0.43292 0.83158-0.32172 0.4982 0.8315-0.66754-1.3156-0.51735-1.6689-1.447-0.38824-0.238-0.64743-2.7206 D.8.2 6.2 D.8 DB46/T 4652018 16 D.8 D.9 D.9.1 D.3 D.9.2 DB46/T 4652018 17 1 M.,2014.2 M.,2009.3 M.,2010.4 M.,2014.5-SPSS M.,1999.6 J.,2012,23(3):298-303.7 J.,2013,22(1):175-182.8.1999-2011 J.,2014,23(5):253-262.9.1997-2006 J.,2008,19(4):393-400.10 J.,2008,23(8):856-865.11 J.,2008,19(1):35-40.12 Gao Y,Zhou F C,Wei C X.Characteristic and Relevant Factors Analysis of Lightning Disaster in Hainan IslandM.Published by Atlantis doi:10.2991/CAS-15.2015.33 13 Ronald L H,Raul E L.Lightning casualties and damages in the United States from 1959 to 1994 J.Journal of Climate,2000,13(19):3448-3464.14 Lopez R E,Holle R L.Changes in the number of lightning deaths in the United States during the twentieth centuryJ.Journal of climate,1998,11(8):2070-2077.15 Dlamini W M.Lightning fatalities in Swaziland:20002007J.Natural Hazards,2009,50(1):179-191.16 MZ/T 027-2011 17 GB/T 26376-2010 18 GB 50057-2010 19 GB 50343-2012 _
