20240201_开源证券_通信行业深度报告：大国重器我国卫星互联网迈入“破茧成蝶”成长期_51页.pdf
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Pro 12 27 Magic 6 12 27 OPPO Find X/2024 2024 02 11 2024 1 5 E8 2022 6 01 2023 9 30 SpaceX SLC-40 Falcon 9 Starlink Group 6-19 22 Starlink LEO 200 62 5/51 10 18 SpaceX SLC-40 Falcon 9 114 22 v2.0 SpaceX 5287 573 v2.0 4896 10 28 Starlink 10 11 SpaceX LTE 2024 2025 2025 Data IOT T-MOBILE()OPTUS()ROGERS()ONE NZ()KDDI()SALT()2024 1 4 SpaceX 6 2023 10 6 Project Kuiper KuiperSat-1 KuiperSat-2 100 3200 1 6/51 1.2 6G 2 7/51 1 5G GEO MEO LEO 2 2 Gateway 3 NTN 8/51 4 NTN 5G-A/6G 40(20 80 2000)66(20002014)(2014)(OneWeb)9/51(SpaceX)5 10/51 1.3 6 1/7 11/51 8 9 2 3 12/51 10/11 13/51 2 1 2 ITU 3 4 6G 2.1 120 2 LEO 300-2000km&MEO 2000-35786km&LEO GEO GEO 35786km SSO 6000 IGSO 35786km LEO 2001 2020 LEO 57%97%2021 12 5000 LEO 83%LEO 66.80%14/51 2001-2005 2016-2020 LEO 40 12 2001 2020 13 LEO 2021 12 2015 Starlink OneWeb Kuiper Starlink SpaceX Starlink Starlink 12000 42000 OneWeb 716 1 200 km/2021 OneWeb 400 6 372 Kuiper 2019 590630 km 3236 AWS,Amazon Web service 3/GHz/(bit(sHz)1)/(Gbits 1)OneWeb 2 2.4 16 2 9.6 StarLink 2 2.7 8 4 21.6 GEO-HTS Viasat-3 3.5 1.1 1000 250 1000 LEO High Throughput Satellite HTS 2008 MBA LEO 0%20%40%60%80%100%020040060080010001200140016002001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020/GEO/LEO/LEO 15/51 GEO LEO Iridium/-NEXT L 16 4/IGEO Inmarsat-4/-5()MUOS()Thuraya-2/-3 DBSD-G1 SkyTerra-1/-2 Alphasat-I-XL TeereStar-1/-2 MEXSAT-1/-2/-3 GEO DireCTV-14/-15 EUTELSAT-65WestA ABS-2/-3A Eutelsat-3B AsiaSat-6/-8 MEXSAT-3b Express-AM5/-AM7 Amos-3/-4 Intelsat-19/-22 SATMEX-7 Astra-2E/-5B YahSat-1A/-1B GEO WINDS WGS()AEHF()Space-way3 MEO O3b()ICO()LEO Iridium-NEXT()Globalstar-1/-2()Orbcomm2()GEO/5 15 5 10 16/51 2.2 Ka Q/V L 1-2GHz S 2-4GHz C 4-7GHz X 7-12GHz Ku 12-18GHz Ka 26.5-40GHz 2.5GHz L S C Ku Ka 3.5GHz Ka Ku(HDTV)(SNG)VSAT(DTH)Q 36-46GHz V 46-56GHz Starlink OneWeb Q V 6 L 12GHz;S 24GHz;C 48GHz,;X 812GHz;Ku 1218GHz C 0.35;,Ka 26.540 GHz;,Q/V 3646 GHz 4675 GHz 0.110 THz(ITU)/6 Ku Ka 2029 57000 SpaceX OneWeb Telesat O3b Viasat Starlink OneWeb 17/51 Project Kuiper Lightspeed O3b Viasat Ku/Ka 2017 ITU 2020 9 GW 12992 590 1145 37.5GHz 42.5 GHz 47.2GHz 51.4GHz 2021 4 7 SpaceX One Web O3b-27.5-29.1 GHz 27.5-29.1 GHz 27.5-30 GHz 29.5-30 GHz 29.5-30 GHz-17.8-18.6 GHz 17.8-18.6 GHz 17.7-20.2 GHz 18.8-19.3 GHz 18.8-19.3 GHz 19.7-20.2 GHz-14.4-14.5 GHz 12.75-13.25 GHz 27.5-30 GHz 14.4-14.5 GHz-10.7-12.7 GHz 10.7-12.7 GHz 17.7-20.2 GHz Ka 18/51 2.3 SpaceMux Skyplex WINDS 14 Inter-Satellite Link ISL Service Link Feeder Link 1 2 QoS 3 4 5 6 19/51 10Gbit/s 100Gbit/s Kuiper Telesat Starlink 2020 8 13 8 20/51 2.4 5G/6G 5G 5G 6G 5G 5G 6G 6G 5G 5G 6G 5G 80%95%5G 10 km 5G 5G 5G 5G Starlink CPE WiFi 5G 5G 5G ITU 3GPP 5G SaT5G 5G 5G ITU 5G 4 2021 11 16 5G 2023 3 8 5G 21/51 15 6G 6G 5G 6G 6G 6G/6G 6G 6G 2020 2 ITU 2030 6G 6G 22/51 6G 6G 2019 11 3 6G 6G 16 6G 6G 23/51 3 3.1 Starlink Starlink SpaceX 2015 SpaceX Starlink Starlink Starlink 17 Starlink Starlink 3.1.1 Starlink Starlink Starlink Gen1 Starlink Gen2 4.2 Starlin Gen1 Ka/Ku LEO V VLEO LEO I 1 1725 Ka/Ku 72 550km 53 2021 5 V0.9 V1.0 Starlink SpaceX 550km 30TB/s 15ms 1GB/s 800 2-5 2824 Ka/Ku 570 km 560 km 540 km 560km 36 6 72 4 VLEO 7518 V 340km Starlink Starlink Gen2 2019 Starlink FCC 3 Starlink 328km614km 75 24/51 9 Starlink Starlink Gen1 Starlink Gen2 LEO Ka/Ku VLEO V 1 2 3 4 5(km)550 570 560 540 560 335.9 340.8 345.6 328614()53 70 97.6 53.2 97.6 42 48 53()72 36 6 72 4 75()22 20 58 22 43()1725 720 348 1584 172 2493 2478 2547 30000 Starlink Starlink 2018 2 MicroSat2A 2B 2022 5 V1.5 4 V1.5 295kg Ku/Ka Star tracker Starlink 5-7 50 18 Starlink 19 Starlink Starlink Starlink Starlink Starlink SpaceX Starlink 6000/50/9 11 25/51 20 9 21 IT Falcon Users Guide 2020 7 SpaceX Starlink Ku Starlink Starlink 58.9cm 7.3kg 2021 11 SpaceX 2 Starlink 57cm 51cm 7.2kg 50cm 30cm 4.2kg Starlink Starlink Starlink Starlink Starlink C4ISR Starlink Ka 8 1.52m SpaceX 27 Ka 2 SpaceX 22 Starlink 23 Starlink Starlink Starlink 26/51 3.1.2 Starlink 2021 6 29 Starlink 200 300 2015 2019 10 22 Starlink 2022 7 11 Starlink 4 SpaceX 2023 10 11 SpaceX Direct to Cell LTE 2024 2025 2025 Data IOT SpaceX 9 T-MOBILE()OPTUS()ROGERS()ONE NZ()KDDI()SALT()10 Starlink Starlink Starlink Residential 99 499 Starlink Starlink Starlink Business 150350 Mbit/s 2040 ms 499 2 500 Starlink Residential Starlink Starlink RV 135 599 2023 5100 Mbit/s Starlink Starlink Maritime Starlink Starlink Maritime 5 000 1 100350 Mbit/s 2040 Mbit/s Starlink 99 ms Starlink 3.1.3 Starlink Starlink Starlink Starlink 1 4.2 2 27/51 3 GPS 4 28/51 3.2 OneWeb 2012 648 2019 8 40ms 34 20 OneWeb 2020 3 28 2020 7 Bharti 5 10 2021 5 531 85%2021 4 28 ETCMY.EU 5.5 OneWeb 24%24 OneWeb OneWeb O3b Google(John Malone)Liberty Global O3b 2007 OneWeb SES O3b(MEO)8062km Ka 16 22 O3b 25 O3b Lloyd Wood Revisiting elliptical satellite orbits to enhance the O3b constellation 29/51 Kuiper 3236 3 98 590km 610km 630km 2022 Arianespace ULA 83 Kuiper 2023 3 14 Satellite 2023 100 1Gb CNBC 11 71 5 2 400 400 7 45 1 0.45 100 3-5 2023 10 6 KuiperSat-1 KuiperSat-2 11 2024 Atlas V 12 19 mesh network 100 Gbps 26 Kuiper 30/51 4 4.1 1 2 ITU Ku Ka 3 Starlink 4 6G 27 2029 1 2 SpaceX 3 31/51 2020 1 2020 4 20 11 2014 11 2015 5 2025 2015 10 2015-2025 2016 3 2016 5 2016 11 2016 11 2016 12 2016 2017 1 2016-2020 2017 11 2018 11 2020 2019 2:2019 6 2019 7 Ka Ka 2020 4 5G 32/51 2019 7 2019 2020 2021 3 2035 2021 4 2023 9 2023 2026 6G 2023 11 2023 2025 50 600 2000 2023 3 2025 2030 3 5 2023 11 2023 2027 2027 500 2023 11 2023 2030 2025 300 2030 2 12 26 G 2023 2 23 16 2017 4 12 2018 12 22 GW 2021 4 28 2023 1 15 2021 11 2016 8 16 22 2022 2 27 20 2015 9 20 2023 11 2 RLV-T5 2018 10 6 33/51 2017 2030 2030 2019 6 1 2 2016 2018 12 60 2025 300 156 2018 12 2018 4 2025 156 2018 5G 1200km 5G 2020 1 200kg 5G Starlink 13/300LEO 2018;2022 60;2025 300 156LEO 2018 4 156 60+60(LEO)2019 1 2 2021 80LEO 2020 100 01 02 2021 80LEO 2018-2019 3 2020-2021 20 2020-2025 60 Galaxy 2800 2022 144 144 800 2800 300LEO 2019 2021 2023 34/51 200LEO+72GEO 2026 272 20 72LEO 2018 7 2022 72 38LEO 2022 38 15 28LEO 2018 18 378 2019 1 A 2022 12 05/06 2025 132 378 8 300LEO 2018 10 2023 138 10 2025 300 22 70 AI 192LEO 2018-4 2022-17 11 48LEO 2017 22 7 21 3 2014 Starlink IT 2016 2017 2021 13 10.92 2022 11 8 9 7.53 28(:)29(:)024681012141618200510152025303540 01234567 pre-A A A+pre-B B B+C C+D D+E E+F G H pre-IPO 2015 2016 20172018 2019 20202021 2022M1-M11 35/51 2019-20222021 50%30(:%)36/51 4.2 SIA 2021 292.48 2025 446.92 2021-2025 11%2019 7.10%2.20%45.10%45.60%31(:)32 2019 SIA 14 2-4 VSAT NOCs SNG FSS BSS MSS 1 01002003004005002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 37/51 33 Starlink StarLink/2 2022 60 34 2021 3 C 38/51 2023 8 29 Mate 60 Pro 12 27 Magic 6 12 27 2024 02 11 2024 1 5 E8 2022 6 01 35 4 G60 2021 4 28 GW ITU GW 2020 11 9 GW-A59 GW-2 12992 39/51 500km2000km GW-A59 6080 500km GW-2 6912 1145km 30 85 37.551.4 GHz Ka V 2023 7 9 11 23/12 30 2023 3 8 5G 5G 3GPP R17 NTN GW 2021 12;36 G60 2021 11 26 G60 40/51 G60 120 20 300/35%2023 152 1 500 200 2023 7 25 G60 1296 12 27 G60 G60 G60 2024 G60 108 G60 41/51 5 1 6G 2 3 C 4 G60 37 1 T/R T/R T/R GaAs/GaN GaAs GaAs L W 42/51 T/R T/R T/R 2023 H1 2 ADC/DAC ADC/DAC ADC/DAC 2023 H1 20 3 4 6G 6G 6G/6G/2005 NEC 43/51 28G 100/5 6-U 5G 5G 6G 5G NTN 2023 3 ITU-T SG13 2 2023 6(IMT)(ITU-R)6G 2023 6-7 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 44/51 2023 H1 5G CCSA TC12 WG1 5G IGS2.0 NTN 2023 H1 2023 H1 2022 2023 5G-5G 2023 MWC2023 8 9 1-3 45/51 2,000/2023 H1 301 10 SoC 11 12 CNAS CMA 46/51 13 2019 5G 5G 14+2023 H1 15 47/51 L S Ku Ka 2 Wi-Fi Ka 16 4G/5G 2023 5G 5G 17 EMIEMC/18 48/51/1kg 1000kg/AIT Anovo 49/51 6 1 2 3 4 50/51 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 500 51/51 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 9 100044 1 B 5 710065
