激光雷达千亿级蓝海市场开启.pdf
S0790519100001 2021 10 21E CU” L3 AI -AI - L3 + L3 2025 MEMS Flash OPA Tier2 - - - VCSEL1 2 3 CONTENTS 41.1 1 21.2 Nidec + 3 41.2 + L3 AI + 5 2D 61.2 + & Robotaxi& 1 Apollo Navigation Pilot ANP L4 Robotaxi Robotaxi 2 Mobileye Robotaxi Luminar 7 ANP 10 8 Mobileye Mobileye1.3 L3 S HI 3 96 P5 Horiz XPILOT 9 96 10 P5 2001.3 IHS L3 1 2025 100 ADAS 2025 L3 100 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E CAGR 20.7 21.2 21.3 21.8 22.7 23.4 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 1.7% L3 3% 4% 7% 10% 12% 15% 16% 18% 20% 21% L4/L5 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 11% 13% 15% L3 10% 25% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95% 100% L4/L5 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% L3 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 L4/L5 3 3 3 3 3 3 ( L3 5.8 28.0 83.6 174.4 294.2 475.0 675.8 933.1 1185.6 1411.2 L4/L5 156.6 280.8 518.4 756.0 936.0 1080.0 5.8 28.0 83.6 174.4 450.8 755.8 1194.2 1689.1 2121.6 2491.2 96.1% 5500.0 4782.6 4158.8 3616.3 3144.6 2858.8 2598.9 2475.1 2357.3 2245.0 3.2 13.4 34.8 63.1 141.8 216.1 310.4 418.1 500.1 559.3 77.61 2 3 CONTENTS 42.1 112.1 MEMS MEMS MEMS 12 MEMS 13 MEMS2.1 1 Ibeo Valeo 2 Livox 14 15 Livox2.1 IBEO 1 Flash 2 OPA 3 ibeo 4D 16 Flash 17 OPA IC Quanergy2.1 Luminar 2018 VCSEL SPAD OptiGOT VCSEL 2 (VCSEL SPAD ( PHY) OptiGOT VCSEL IC Innoluce Luminar Black Forest Engineering InGaAs2.1 ToF 4D FMCW 1 ToF 2 FMCW FMCW ToF 4D 18 ToF 3 AMCW FMCW ToF AMCW FMCW 1550 ToF2.2 (AEC) 0 1 Tier1 10 Scala2 HI CH32 Livox 4 5 4 -40 -150 -40 -85 0 -70 & 15 20 / / AEC Q100 AEC Q200 / SCALA2 Valeo 905nm 150 133 16 S HI 905nm 150 10% 120 *3 0 96 S HBT Horiz Livox( ) 1550nm 150 10% 120 *2 6 144 P5 CH32 1550nm 200 120 322.3 VCSEL EEL 1550nm 19 6 1550nm 63% 23% 10% 5% 905 15502.3 Tier1 Tier2 20 Tier22.3 Livox Livox 21 Livox Mid-40 22 Livox1 2 3 CONTENTS 43.1 A 233.2 2017 DMS 24 25 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 2017 2018 2019 2020Q3 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2017 2018 2019 2020Q33.2 7 / AR/VR Q3.2 2020 26 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) 27 20203.2 ETC ETC 2015 2016 OPA 2019 MEMS Flash OPA 128 2022 OPA MEMS Flash 28 OPA MEMS Flash 2021.10 2022.4 2022.6 2022.12 2023.8 2024.6 128 128 MEMS MEMS 30 OPA OPA3.3 Wind Wind 2021 10 20 OPA MEMS Flash 8 EPS PE 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 002273.SZ 0.41 0.51 0.63 34.7 27.9 22.6 197.61 14.21 002222.SZ 66.05 15.45 300552.SZ 52.61 26.58 A21012.SH1 2 3 CONTENTS 44612 A 300 500 buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C51788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5
