1 / 19 2021 10 22 - - 2021.10.20 - -2021.10.18 - - 2021.10.18 S0790520040001 S0790120040033 1960 -1980 10% 20172 / 19 1 “ ” . 3 1.1 “ ” . 4 1.2 “ ” . 8 1.3 “ ” . 8 2 “ ” . 10 2.1 . 10 2.2 . 12 3 “ ” . 13 3.1 . 13 3.2 . 15 3.3 “ ” . 16 4 . 17 1 1960-1980 GDP % . 3 2 1980 GDP % . 3 3 1960-1980 % . 4 4 1970 % . 4 5 GDP . 4 6 1950-1970 1973 . 5 7 1980 1980 . 6 8 1950-1970 1970 . 6 9 1986 1986 “ ” . 7 10 1956 -1986 GDP 1990 . 7 11 GDP 20 90 (%) . 9 12 20 90 . 9 13 20 90 / . 9 14 65 10% . 10 15 20 80 . 11 16 “ ” . 12 17 GDP 20 90 . 13 18 . 15 19 1970 . 17 1 1950 1980 . 5 2 . 143 / 19 1 20 60-70 GDP 15-64 20 90 GDP 15-64 1 1960-1980 GDP % 2 1980 GDP % Wind Wind 15 20 25 30 35 40 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 : GDP : : GDP : : GDP : 15 20 25 30 35 40 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 : GDP : : GDP : : GDP : : GDP4 / 19 3 1960-1980 % 4 1970 % Wind Wind 5 GDP Wind 1.1 1960 -1980 1960 1980 1980 30% GDP 4.8%-5.4% 80 80 (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 15-64 15-64 15-64 (0.4) (0.2) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 15-64 15-64 15-64 (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 : GDP : 15-645 / 19 80 1959 1980 GDP 1960 1986 1986 1 1950 1980 19401980 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 18.4 26 26.7 25.5 31 14 16 18.2 22.3 27.6 14.1 18.9 21 26.3 29.9 16.7 17.4 20.5 23.4 13 18.9 22.3 27.5 30.1 17.2 17.9 19.8 25.6 33 15.6 19.2 21.4 25.1 30.3 6 2000 320325 6 1950-1970 1973 Andr A. Hofman, “Long run economic development in Latin America in a comparative perspective: Proximate and ultimate causes”, CEPAL-SERIE Macroeconoma del desarrollo N8, Santiago, Chile. 2001 1900 1913 1913 1929 1929 1950 1950 1973 1973 1980 1980 1989 1989 1998 1990 1998 6.4 3.5 2.5 4 3 -1.1 5 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.5 3.3 2.9 -0.3 4.3 2.7 4.5 4.7 5 6.9 7.2 2.3 1.1 4.9 3.7 2.9 2.2 3.6 2.8 3 7.2 3.4 4.2 4.7 3.6 5.1 5 3.3 3.7 4.3 2.6 0.8 4 6.5 6.4 1.5 3.3 3.7 4.5 5.4 2.6 5.3 3.6 -0.7 3.5 3.8 3.3 8.2 5.9 6.4 4.1 0 3.6 5.2 加权平均 4.1 4.1 3.9 5.4 4.8 1.5 4 4.26 / 19 7 1980 1980 Atkinson, Anthony B., Thomas Piketty, and Emmanuel Saez. “Top Incomes in the Long Run of History.” Journal of Economic Literature 49, no. 1 (2011): 371. pareto-lorenz 8 1950-1970 1970 Wind 1949-1960 3.45% 8.24% 5.01% 3.42% 5.03% 1961-1970 3.07% 4.45% 5.70% 4.64% 4.18% 4.82% 4.46% 1971-1980 2.12% 2.88% 3.69% 1.98% 4.72% 2.16% 2.67% 1981-1990 2.88% 2.33% 2.46% 2.21% 2.57% 2.09% 2.47% 1991-2000 2.48% 1.92% 2.10% 2.11% 3.68% 2.67% 2.15% 2001-2010 1.46% 0.86% 1.24% 2.20% 1.58% 0.77% 1.44% 2011-2020 0.79% 0.99% 0.34% 1.67% 1.32% 1.47% 0.957 / 19 9 1986 1986 . D. .2017 10 1956 -1986 GDP 1990 Wind 5080 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 0.2 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.3 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20062008 2010 2012 2014 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 :GDP:8 / 19 1.2 20 90 90 10 700 20% 20 90 1 1.3 20 90 1995 40% 1960 95% 1998 38% 2 21 WTO 1 2 2004 47-489 / 19 11 GDP 20 90 (%) Maddison Historical Statistics Penn Word Table Klasing and Milionis estimate 2014 20 90 80 90 70 80 2.8 3.3 90 43.3 21 2000-2006 5 20 90 1992 5 12 20 90 13 20 90 / Wind Wind 65 10-15% 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1871 1882 1889 1895 1904 1911 1915 1919 1924 1932 1936 1944 1947 1950 1956 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 Maddison Historical Statistics Penn Word Table Klasing and Milionis estimate 2014 world bank ( ) , 1992 446 (1,000,000) 1,000,000 3,000,000 5,000,000 7,000,000 9,000,000 11,000,000 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 : 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 200010 / 19 3 10% 14 65 10% Wind 2 2.1 3 1990 9 Margaret E. Grosh, Social Spending in Latin America: The Story of the 1980 , World Bank Discussion Paper World Bank, November 1990, p23. 10.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1903 1918 1930 1947 1960 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 : :65 % :65 15 % 13.51 11.51 13.06 0 5 10 15 20 25 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 65 : 65 : 65 : 10.39 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 :65 : :65 : 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 :65 : 65 : : 65 :11 / 19 20 80 20 70 44.5% 70% 10%-15% 8% 15 20 80 Evelyn Huber and John D.Stephens,Welfare State in the Era of Retrenchment,Paul Pierson(ed),The New Politics of the Welfare State, Oxford,2001 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.612 / 19 16 Luigi Bernardi, Alberto Barreix, Anna Marenzi and Paola Profeta (eds.), Tax Systems and Tax Reforms in Latin America, Routledge, 1 edition, January 2008, Figure 1.6, p33. 2.213 / 19 17 GDP 20 90 Wind 2002 1997-2002 8 8 1994 14 1999 29 3 3.1 1960-1980 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 : GDP : % : GDP : % : GDP : % : GDP : % 7.00 9.00 11.00 13.00 15.00 17.00 : : % : : % : : % : : % 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 : GDP : % : GDP : % : GDP : % : GDP : % 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 : : % : : % : : % : : 14 / 19 2 . D. .2017 . D. ,2014. 2021 2025 2017 2021 2025 5015 / 19 20 90 18 Wind - 10 10% - 3.2 Florian Hoffmann 2020 20 70 / 20 80-90 20 21 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 - 就业人口多，劳动密度低 就业人口多，劳动密度高 就业人口少，劳动密度高 就业人口少，劳动密度低16 / 19 1000 4 3.3 1960-1980 1968 1953-1967 15 11 2% 5 1968 1970 1972- 1973 1973-1975 OECD 26% 1969 1.75%-2.25% Eatwell 1974 6 4 8 18 500 500 1000 2025 1000 5 Kaldor, Nicholas. “Inflation and Recession in the World Economy.” The Economic Journal 86, no. 344 (1976): 70314.11 6 Eatwell, John, John Llewellyn, and Roger Tarling. “Money Wage Inflation in Industrial Countries.” The Review of Economic Studies 41, no. 4 (1974): 5152317 / 19 19 1970 Perry, George L., Gardner Ackley, and William Nordhaus. “Determinants of Wage Inflation around the World.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1975, no. 2 (1975): 40347 4 1961 6.1 2.6 7.8 11.6 6.1 16.5 13.8 8.6 7.8 2.9 1962 7.6 3 9.8 13 16.3 14.1 6.3 7.4 5.2 3.4 1963 10.4 3.5 10.9 6.9 19 11.7 9.6 10.3 4.7 2.8 1964 13.4 3.8 6.7 7.8 12.5 12.3 16.9 7.8 7.2 3 1965 10.4 5 6 9.9 5.9 12.7 12 11.8 9.4 3.7 1966 10.9 7.9 6.8 9 2.3 10.2 11.8 8 8.4 4 1967 9.3 7.6 7.8 5.8 10.5 12 11.1 10.2 2.9 4.8 1968 6.3 7.3 11.4 5.9 4.6 16.2 10.3 7 7.2 6.1 1969 9.4 7.5 13.3 9.1 10.8 18.3 13.2 8.9 8 6.3 1970 13.3 7.8 13.1 15.2 22 18.8 15.5 14.3 14.7 6.4 1971 14.7 7.6 11.7 14 18.1 15.7 14.4 7.4 14.1 6.8 1972 15.8 7.3 11.3 11.7 13.3 15.6 15.3 14.9 13.1 6.1 1973 17.7 8.5 13.5 13.2 21.4 24.5 14.8 10.9 13.3 6.1 1974 21.2 13 19.2 14.8 19.1 33.5 19 16.7 20.1 7.818 / 19 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50019 / 19 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065