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功率半导体专题系列一:乘新能源汽车东风而起.pdf

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功率半导体专题系列一:乘新能源汽车东风而起.pdf

1 / 28 2021 08 03 - -2021.7.19 - -2021.3.28 - - 2021.1.15 S0790520070002 S0790120080051 EVTank 2025 1200 330 39.6 30.88% IGBT MOSFET IGBT OBC / / MOSFET LED IGBT MOSFET 400 MOSFET SiC GaN OBC DC/DC SiC 2017-2018 -20% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2020-08 2020-12 2021-04 3002 / 28 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 5 2 . 6 2.1 IGBT . 6 2.2 MOSFET . 9 3 . 11 3.1 . 11 3.2 IGBT . 13 3.3 MOSFET . 16 4 . 18 5 . 22 5.1 IGBT IGBT . 22 5.2 IDM IGBT . 22 5.3 MOSFET . 23 5.4 IDM MOSFET . 24 5.5 . 25 6 . 26 1 . 4 2 2025 600 . 5 3 2025 1200 . 5 4 . 6 5 . 6 6 48V 90 . 6 7 330 . 6 8 IGBT . 7 9 IGBT . 7 10 Model S IGBT . 7 11 IGBT OBC DC-DC . 8 12 OBC . 8 13 IGBT . 8 14 IGBT DC-DC . 9 15 Model S . 9 16 MOSFET . 9 17 MOSFET LED . 10 18 MOSFET . 10 19 2019 . 12 20 . 13 21 IGBT . 143 / 28 22 2019 IGBT . 14 23 . 14 24 . 15 25 A00 . 15 26 IGBT . 15 27 . 16 28 . 16 29 A00 2017-2019 . 16 30 MOSFET . 17 31 2019 IGBT . 17 32 Rohm SiC . 18 33 Rohm SiC . 19 34 SiC . 19 35 . 19 36 . 20 37 SiC . 21 38 . 21 39 SiC . 22 40 SiC /A . 22 41 . 22 42 . 22 43 . 23 44 . 23 45 . 24 46 . 24 47 . 25 48 . 25 49 . 25 50 2020 . 25 1 . 4 2 IGBT . 6 3 MOS 200 . 10 4 2018Q4 . 12 5 IGBT . 13 6 5-6 . 13 7 MOSFET . 17 8 . 18 9 Wolfspeed OBC . 20 10 . 264 / 28 1 1.1 1 ICCT 1 2040 100% 2025 20% 2.0 2050 100% 2030 2035 2040 2050 100% 2030 2030 30% 2030 2030 2030 23%-33% 2030 100% 2025 100% 2025 100% 2030 75% 2030 50% 2040 20325 / 28 2040 2040 100% 2030 100%CO 50 / 2030 33% 2040 100% 2030 2035 ICCT 2.0 2025 20% 2025 3000 20% 600 2035 50% EV Sales 2020 312.48 41.40% EVTank 2025 1200 2 2025 600 3 2025 1200 EVSales 1.2 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E CAGR=34.42% 0 500 1000 1500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025E CAGR=30.886 / 28 4 5 48V 572 90 48V 330 834 6 48V 90 7 330 2 2.1 IGBT 400V IGBT 600V IGBT 2 IGBT IGBT / Chevrolet volt 430V 650V Tesla model S 375V 600V Toyota prius 351.5V 1200V ES8 350V 750V Something about Tech7 / 28 OBC / / 8 IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT DC-AC 9 IGBT 10 Model S IGBT PntP on board charger OBC IGBT/MOSFET OBC 220V OBC DC-DC - IGBT MOSFET OBC DC-DC8 / 28 11 IGBT OBC DC-DC 12 OBC Onboard Battery Chargers for Plug-in Electric Vehicles with Dual Functional Circuit for Low-V oltage Battery Charging and Active Power Decoupling PntP IGBT EPS IGBT DC-AC /DC-DC 13 IGBT IGBT OBC IGBT DC-DC DC- LINK DC-DC9 / 28 14 IGBT DC-DC 15 Model S PntPower 2.2 MOSFET 24V 12V 300-400V 16 MOSFET 5V 3.3V 50V MOS LED 12V MOSFET10 / 28 17 MOSFET LED MOSFET MOSFET MOSFET 200 Switch PMIC MOSFET 400 18 MOSFET 3 MOS 200 7 6 411 / 28 5 4 USB 1 12V Low integration 17 5 4 4 LED 9 LED 2 2 2 12 8 7 10 12 1 2 8 5 EPS 11 EPS 22 4 174 MOSFET 3 3.1 MOSFET IGBT 90% 6012 / 28 19 2019 Omdia 2017- 2018 4 2018Q4 IGBT ON SEMICONDUCTOR 20-24 & 52 Infineon 39-52 Microsemi 36-44 Ixys 36-44 STMicroelectronics 50 MOSFET Infineon 39-52 Diodes inc 32-40 ON SEMICONDUCTOR 39-52 Nexperia 36-52 STMicroelectronics 38-42 Vishay 33-50 MOSFET Infineon 39-52 ON SEMICONDUCTOR 36-44 Ixys 36-44 STMicroelectronics 38-44 ROHM 36-40 Microsemi 26-40 Vishay 39-44 ISO AEC-Q Infineon, 19.90% ON Semi, 8.90% STMicro, 5.40% Mitsubis hi, 4.80% Vishay, 4.50% Toshiba, 4.50% Fuji, 3.60% Renesas, 3.30% Rohm, 2.60% Semikron , 2.50% Others, 40.0013 / 28 20 IND4 3.2 IGBT IGBT 80 40 7 IGBT IGBT IGBT 5-6 5 IGBT PT 100 5 3.0 0.50 100 600 1988 PT-IGBT 56 5 2.8 0.30 74 600 1990 Trench-IGBT 40 3 2.0 0.25 51 1200 1992 NPT-IGBT 31 1 1.5 0.25 39 3300 1997 FS-IGBT 27 0.5 1.3 0.19 33 4500 2001 FS-Trench IGBT 24 0.5 1.0 0.15 29 6500 2003 - - 1.4 0.15 - - 2018 6 5-6 12 12 814 / 28 600-6500V 600-3300V 600-1200V 750-6500V IGBT Yole 2019 IGBT 63.4 Omdia 2019 2.5% IGBT 21 IGBT 22 2019 IGBT Infineon Yole Omdia IGBT EV Sales 2020 127.19 40.7% 23 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Infineon, 35.60% Mitsubishi, 11.90% Fuji Electric, 10.50% Semikron, 7.30% Vincotech, 3.50% Hitachi, 3.10% Danfoss, 2.50% Starpower, 2.50% Toshiba, 2.40% ABB Semi, 1.80% Others, 18.9015 / 28 24 25 A00 A00 A SUV A00 IGBT A00 IGBT IGBT A00 20 2019 16 2020 20 2019 A00 23.22 IGBT 2019 A00 70% IGBT IGBT 2019 IGBT 49.3% 20% 16.6% 26 IGBT A IGBT IGBT A -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 50 100 150 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% A00 A0-A A , 49.30% , 20.00% , 16.60% , 14.1016 / 28 27 28 A00-A0 A A 2017-2019 A00-A0 2017 61% 2019 22% A00 2020 Mini EV A00 33% IGBT A IGBT 29 A00 2017-2019 3.3 MOSFET MOSFET MOSFET 2019 3.00% MOSFET ODM 4.10% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 61% 45% 22% 33% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020 MPV C-SUV B-SUV A-SUV A0-SUV C B A A0 A0017 / 28 30 MOSFET 31 2019 IGBT Omdia Omdia MOSFET / Trench MOSFET SGT SJ MOSFET MOSFET MOSFET/ MOSFET 7 MOSFET Vds -250-1700V 30V-900V 40V-900V -100-900V -100-1500V MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS MOS IGBT MOSFET MOSFET IGBT MOSFET MOSFET MOSFET MOSFET 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MOSFET Infineon, 24.60% ON Semi , 12.80% STMicro, 9.50% Toshiba, 7.30% Renesas, 5.60% Vishay, 5.00% Alpha and Omega, 4.50% Nexperia, 4.10% China Resources, 3.00% MagnaChip, 1.80% Others, 21.8018 / 28 4 SiC SiC SiC 8 Si GaAs GaN SiC eV) 1.1 1.4 3.4 3.3 107cm/s) 1.0 1.0 2.7 2.2 W/cmk) 1.5 0.5 1.3 4.9 SiC SiC SiC Si SiC Rohm Formula E SiC 6 43% 32 Rohm SiC TechWeb SiC IGBT Rohm SiC 7519 / 28 33 Rohm SiC TechWeb SiC SiC 34 SiC 35 TechWeb Rohm SiC OBC DC/DC OBC SiC MOSFET OBC Wolfspeed OBC 6.6KW OBC SiC 2.5% 22KW OBC SiC 2% SiC20 / 28 9 Wolfspeed OBC 6.6KW bi-direct Si SiC ( 100% 98% 2kW/L $30 $/liter) ca.2kW/L ca.3kW/L $ 0.55k(0.43)Wh/100km*30000km.y*$72/t 95% ./. 97% $32/year 300k km lifetime*400g/kWh, 0.44(0.43)kWh/100km*$72/t ./. $38 + + ./. $550 Wolfspeed OBC DCDC BMS SiC 36 Yole 2019-2025 SiC 5.41 25.62 30% OBC DC- DC 2.25 15.5321 / 28 37 SiC Yole SiC Si SiC SiC 1800 C Si SiC PVT 38 6 SiC 8 CASA 5 8 6 SiC 8 SiC SiC CASA SiC GaN 2020 2017 50% Si 4 SiC GaN22 / 28 39 SiC 40 SiC /A CASA 5 5.1 IGBT IGBT 2005 4 IGBT IGBT IGBT IGBT 2020 94.65% 600 100V 3300V UPS / SVG 2020 IGBT 20 20 IGBT IGBT 41 42 Wind Wind 5.2 IDM IGBT MOSFET IGBT IPM MCU MEMS , 47% , 23% , 19% , 6% , 5% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 650V SiC MOSFET 650V Si IGBT 650V GaN HEMT 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 50 100 150 200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202023 / 28 LED IDM IDM 12 IDM IGBT IPM IGBT IGBT IGBT 600V/650/1200/1350V 650V/750V IGBT 1200V IGBT 2020 IGBT LED 8 LED 2 8 2020-2021 43 44 Wind Wind 5.3 MOSFET MOSFET IGBT MOSFET MOSFET MOSFET MOSFET IPO Fabless MOSFET 2020 1200V 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 0 50 100 150 200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202024 / 28 SiC MOSFET 45 46 Wind Wind 5.4 IDM MOSFET 1995 25 MOSFET IGBT SCR IDM SGT MOS SJ MOS TVS 2020 MOSFET 20% 2021 MOSFET 2021 6 8 1,195 11.95 DFN TOLL LFPACK WCSP MOSFET 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 50 100 150 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202025 / 28 47 48 Wind Wind 5.5 2006 2007 IDH 2008 ODM ODM 2020 ODM 416.67 OPPO 2018 2020 100% Nexperia 2017 IDM 2020 98.92 2020 45% 1.6 POWER MOSFET 2021 12 120 40 49 50 2020 Wind Wind 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -500% 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2016 2017 2018 2019 202026 / 28 10 % PE 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 603290.SH 375.40 33.6 61.5 36.1 33.6 332.2 208.6 153.9 115.2 600460.SH 62.32 365.2 1041.0 17.1 15.5 1246.4 105.6 90.3 77.9 605111.SH 155.43 41.9 164.3 30.6 27.5 158.6 59.8 45.7 35.9 300623.SZ 34.89 49.5 52.6 29.1 24.2 91.8 59.1 45.9 37.1 600745.SH 106.37 92.7 51.6 38.5 29.2 54.8 36.2 26.1 20.2 Wind 2021/8/3 Wind 6 1 2 327 / 28 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50028 / 28 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065

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