纯碱行业系列报告二：光玻如期带动纯碱需求密集点火下纯碱或加速上行.pdf
1 / 17 2021 07 27 -OPEC+ -2021.7.25 -MLCC MLCC + -2021.7.25 - -2021.7.25 S0790520020002 S0790120080059 S0790120010015 2021 H1 2020 2021 H1 2021 H1 1,474.40 2019 2020 11.31% 10.72% 2021 2020 2021 H1 1,438.91 2019 2020 14.36% 11.87% Wind 2021 7 23 2,136 / 2021 45.21% 2021 2017 -2019 16.17 18.89 20.52 +6.90% +16.80% +8.60% 2017 -2019 2021 2021 2021 Wind 2021 1-6 3.65 2019 12.51% 2021 Q3 2021 H2 2021 H2 60 2020 2,658.54 160 2021 20,930 / 152.79 2021 56,870 / 415 3,349 / 2020 32 / 2021 20 2021 60 18.83% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 3002 / 17 1 . 4 2 2021 . 6 2.1 . 6 2.1.1 . 7 2.1.2 2021 . 8 2.2 2021 H2 . 9 2.2.1 2021 . 9 2.2.2 . 10 2.2.3 2021 . 11 2.3 . 13 3 2021 . 13 4 . 15 1 2021 . 4 2 . 5 3 2021 7 . 6 4 2021 7 . 6 5 2020 6% . 6 6 2020 159.51 . 6 7 . 7 8 2021 2 . 7 9 2017-2019 . 8 10 2020 1-6 . 8 11 2021 1-6 . 8 12 2021 . 9 13 2021 7,700 . 9 14 2021 . 10 15 2021 . 10 16 2021 . 10 17 2021 . 10 18 2021 6 CR3 52% . 11 19 . 13 1 2021 H1 . 5 2 . 11 3 2021 . 12 4 2022 24,800 / . 12 5 2021 . 143 / 17 6 . 14 7 “ ” . 154 / 17 1 2021 2 2020 12 16 Wind 2021 7 23 2,136 / 2021 45.21% 2,021 / 2021 42.52% 2021 1 2021 Wind 2021 H1 2021 1-2 885 552 86.8% 82% 3-6 90% 2021 1-6 1,474.40 2019 2020 11.31% 10.72% 2021 H1 2021 1-6 7.45 63.70% 2021 2020 2021 H1 2021 1-6 1,438.91 2019 2020 14.36% 11.87% 2021 2020 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 2018-01 2018-04 2018-07 2018-10 2019-01 2019-04 2019-07 2019-10 2020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 2021-04 2021-07 / / -1.55 / 17 1-5 2021 7,700 2021 1-5 80-110 6 5 79.12 40.26 18.83% 2021 7 2,019 / 1,925 / 2016 7 -8 2021 1 2021 H1 % 2021 1 240.20 86.8 232.42 0.86 8.64 2021 2 226.90 82 223.88 0.43 6.70 2021 3 254.00 91.8 244.99 0.43 9.44 2021 4 257.30 92.7 249.22 0.23 8.31 2021 5 247.90 90.4 242.15 0.20 5.95 2021 6 248.10 90.5 246.24 5.31 7.17 1,474.40 - 1,438.91 7.45 46.19 2021 6 2 Wind 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2016-01 2016-04 2016-07 2016-10 2017-01 2017-04 2017-07 2017-10 2018-01 2018-04 2018-07 2018-10 2019-01 2019-04 2019-07 2019-10 2020-01 2020-04 2020-07 2020-10 2021-01 2021-04 2021-07 / /6 / 17 3 2021 7 4 2021 7 Wind Wind 2 2021 2020 2020 2,658.54 40% 1063.42 6% 159.51 54% 1,435.61 5 2020 6% 6 2020 159.51 2.1 2021 2021 7 23 1,776.24 / 20.05% 2021 2021 2 97.77 230.19% 2021 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 / 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 / 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 , 40% , 12% , 6% , 5% , 5% , 3% , 29% 80 133 133 160 319 771 1,063 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 ( )7 / 17 1,641.84 / 2 1,479.56 / 10.97% 7 8 2021 2 2.1.1 2021 H1 2019 2017 -2019 16.17 18.89 20.52 +6.90% +16.80% +8.60% 2020 2.00% 20.11 2019 9.59 +2.60% 2020 9.12 4.90% 2021 1-6 3.65 2019 12.51% 2017-2019 2020 2020 2021 2020 17.61 +2.60% 2021 1-6 8.86 2019 16.96% 2021 Q3 2021 2021 H1 2021 H2 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2016-09 2016-11 2017-01 2017-03 2017-05 2017-07 2017-09 2017-11 2018-01 2018-03 2018-05 2018-07 2018-09 2018-11 2019-01 2019-03 2019-05 2019-07 2019-09 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 ( / ) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2008 / 17 9 2017-2019 10 2020 1-6 11 2021 1-6 2.1.2 2021 2021 2 2021 6 30 306 263 173,425 +10.71% 1,266 2020 166,875 6,550 3.93% 2021 H1 7 10 10,850 5 3,150 7,700 2021 (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 2008-06 2008-12 2009-06 2009-12 2010-06 2010-12 2011-06 2011-12 2012-06 2012-12 2013-06 2013-12 2014-06 2014-12 2015-06 2015-12 2016-06 2016-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2019-06 2019-12 2020-06 2020-12 2021-06 % (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 2008-07 2008-12 2009-05 2009-10 2010-03 2010-08 2011-01 2011-06 2011-11 2012-04 2012-09 2013-02 2013-07 2013-12 2014-05 2014-10 2015-03 2015-08 2016-01 2016-06 2016-11 2017-04 2017-09 2018-02 2018-07 2018-12 2019-05 2019-10 2020-03 2020-08 2021-01 2021-06 % (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008-06 2008-12 2009-06 2009-12 2010-06 2010-12 2011-06 2011-12 2012-06 2012-12 2013-06 2013-12 2014-06 2014-12 2015-06 2015-12 2016-06 2016-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 2018-12 2019-06 2019-12 2020-06 2020-12 2021-06 9 / 17 12 2021 13 2021 7,700 2021 9 7,600 17 11,800 100 20 2021 2.2 2021 H2 2.2.1 2021 2021 2020 48.20GW 81.7% 2020 18.7GW Q4 29.50GW 2021 2021 53.65 2020 3.86% 2021 Wind 2021 13.15 /kg 33.56 /kg 155.21% 310W PERC 2021 1.54 / 1.71 / 11.04% 2021 2021 1-6 14.10GW 22.6% 2020 Q4 29.50GW 3.2mm 2021 43 / 23 / 46.51% 2021 84% 84% 84% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 86% 86% 86% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1 2 3 4 5 6 % 164,000 165,000 166,000 167,000 168,000 169,000 170,000 171,000 172,000 173,000 174,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 /10 / 17 14 2021 15 2021 Wind 16 2021 17 2021 2.2.2 Wind 6 33.61 /kg 7 12 32.92 /kg 2021 H1 6 7 23 310W PERC 1.55 / 2021 2021 7 2022H1 22 2030 2005 65% 25% 12 2021 2021 55-65GW 70-90GW 2021 H2 238.5 2022 484.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 /kg 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 ( perc,310W) ( / ) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 3.2mm ( / ) 3.2mm ( / ) 3.2mm ( / ) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 / 17 2 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 E 2021Q4 E 2022H1 E 2022H2 E GW 5.3 8.8 15.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 42% 45% 48% 50% 55% 60% 27.1 45.6 79.0 159.5 211.5 272.9 2.2.3 2021 2021 6 46,770 / 12,980 / 28% 7200 / 15% 4,120 / 9% CR3 52% 18 2021 6 CR3 52% 7 20 2021 80 2021 8 1 2025 2021 2021 2021 20,930 / 152.79 2021 56,870 / 415 , 12980, 28% , 7200, 15% , 4120, 9% , 3210, 7% , 2400, 5% , 2150, 5% , 14710, 3112 / 17 2020 14.24% 2022 24,800 / 2022 81,670 / 596 3 2021 / 2021 Q3 2,400 17.52 2,000 14.60 750 5.48 800 5.84 800 5.84 900 6.57 7,650 55.85 2021 Q4 2,080 15.18 400 2.92 600 4.38 600 4.38 3,680 26.86 2021 Q3 Q4 2,400 17.52 900 6.57 2,400 17.52 1,200 8.76 1,000 7.30 750 5.48 650 4.75 300 2.19 9,600 70.08 2021 H2 20,930 152.79 4 2022 24,800 / / 300 2.19 1,000 7.30 1,200 8.76 1,200 8.76 1,200 8.76 2,000 14.60 2,400 17.5213 / 17 / 2,500 18.25 3,000 21.90 4,000 29.20 6,000 43.80 24,800 181.04 2.3 Li CO 42.74 3.01% 2021 15.10 19 2020 3 2021 2021 2022 3,349 2020 32 2021 20 2022 6 20 60 60 130 2021 2022 3,259 2021 60 780 / 340 / 2022 440 / 2025 2022 81,670 / 596 2020 436 2025 2022-2025 /14 / 17 5 2021 % - 2021-01 240.20 86.80 232.42 7.78 2021-02 226.90 82.00 223.88 3.02 2021-03 254.00 91.80 244.99 9.01 2021-04 257.30 92.70 249.22 8.08 2021-05 247.90 90.40 242.15 5.75 2021-06 248.10 90.50 246.24 1.86 2021 1-6 1,474.40 88.05 1,438.91 35.49 2021-07 E 210.68 75.49 247.32 -36.64 2021-08 E 234.30 83.95 252.39 -18.09 2021-09 E 248.84 89.16 253.11 -4.27 2021-10 E 256.76 92.00 255.99 0.77 2021-11 E 256.76 92.00 256.95 -0.19 2021-12 E 256.76 92.00 258.80 -2.04 2021 7-12 1,464.09 87.43 1,524.56 -60.47 2021 2,938.49 87.74 2,963.47 -24.98 2021 2021 6-8 2021 -2022 2021 18.83% 6 100 286 1.90 147 0.98 60 0.40 280 1.86 167 1.11 128 0.85 66 0.44 150 1.0015 / 17 7 2021/7/26 % PE 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 13.56 5.00 322.64 0.50 9.46 39.04 9.24 9.19 8.40 8.52 -89.89 3,129.40 11.56 27.43 118.79 14.23 12.76 10.01 11.00 133.79 53.64 27.28 6.50 22.29 14.51 11.40 10.70 10.35 -254.71 339.85 32.89 24.25 -14.05 15.31 11.52 9.27 18.57 -38.12 122.94 8.39 9.33 11.53 14.4 13.28 12.15 2.74 -92.08 2,906.66 32.39 27.63 306.29 19.66 14.85 11.63 11.69 -9.39 349.36 7.6 95.47 24.82 13.57 12.61 6.45 10.13 236.19 317.46 24.27 19.06 28.06 10.48 8.43 7.08 Wind （注：除 三友化工与云图控股 外，其他公司的盈利预测与估值均来自 Wind 一致预测 416 / 17 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50017 / 17 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
