NET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND BY S. JULIO FRIEDMANN, ALEX ZAPANTIS, BRAD PAGE, CHRIS CONSOLI, ZHIYUAN FAN, IAN HAVERCROFT, HARRY LIU, EMEKA OCHU, NABEELA RAJI, DOMINIC RASSOOL, HADIA SHEERAZI, AND ALEX TOWNSEND SEPTEMBER 2020ABOUT THE GLOBAL CCS INSTITUTE The Global CCS Institute (the Institute) is an international think tank whose mission is to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS), a vital technology to tackle climate change. As a team of almost 40 professionals, working with and on behalf of our Members, we drive the adoption of CCS as quickly and cost effectively as possible; sharing expertise, building capacity and providing advice and support so CCS can play its part in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Our diverse international membership includes governments, global corporations, private companies, research bodies and non-governmental organisations; all committed to CCS as an integral part of a net-zero emissions future. The Institute is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia with offices in Washington DC, Brussels, Beijing, London and Tokyo. Visit us at GlobalCCSInstitute GlobalCCS Global CCS Institute ABOUT THE CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY The Center on Global Energy Policy provides independent, balanced, data-driven analysis to help policymakers navigate the complex world of energy. We approach energy as an economic, security, and environmental concern. And we draw on the resources of a world- class institution, faculty with real-world experience, and a location in the worlds finance and media capital. Visit us at energypolicy.columbia.edu ColumbiaUenergy ABOUT THE SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS SIPAs mission is to empower people to serve the global public interest. Our goal is to foster economic growth, sustainable development, social progress, and democratic governance by educating public policy professionals, producing policy-related research, and conveying the results to the world. Based in New York City, with a student body that is 50 percent international and educational partners in cities around the world, SIPA is the most global of public policy schools. For more information, please visit sipa.columbia.eduColumbia University CGEP 1255 Amsterdam Ave. New York, NY 10027 energypolicy.columbia.edu ColumbiaUenergy NET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND BY S. JULIO FRIEDMANN, ALEX ZAPANTIS, BRAD PAGE, CHRIS CONSOLI, ZHIYUAN FAN, IAN HAVERCROFT, HARRY LIU, EMEKA OCHU, NABEELA RAJI, DOMINIC RASSOOL, HADIA SHEERAZI, AND ALEX TOWNSEND SEPTEMBER 2020NET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | SEPTEMBER 2020 | 3 This volume has benefited from detailed feedback and suggestions from three anonymous external expert reviewers and multiple anonymous Columbia University reviewers, who contributed substantially towards improving the quality of this report, and to whom we are grateful. Writing this report during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 strained the boundaries of work and home, and thus, we would like to acknowledge the support of our families and colleagues during this particularly difficult and unprecedented time. This policy paper represents the research and views of the authors. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Center on Global Energy Policy. The paper may be subject to further revision. This work was made possible by support from the Center on Global Energy Policy. More information is available at /energypolicy.columbia.edu/about/partners. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSNET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND 4 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPA Dr. Julio Friedmann is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. He is one of the most widely known and authoritative experts in the US on carbon removal (CO 2 drawdown from the air and oceans), CO 2 conversion and use (carbon- to-value), and carbon capture and sequestration. Dr. Friedmann recently served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Office of Fossil Energy at the Department of Energy, where he was responsible for DOEs R production of nearzero-C hydrogen in abundance; and recently built power plants, in particular coal and gas facilities in Asia. To enable large-scale rapid carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal through engineered systems. This will include approaches like direct-air capture with storage (DACS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and carbon mineralization. Due to the intense urgency of the climate crisis, global emissions must drop 50 percent by 2030 and reduce a further 50 percent from that level by 2040 to achieve net-zero by midcenturythis is the science-based target of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1.5 o C report and the “well below 2 o C” scenario ratified in the Paris Accord. Thus, reducing global emissions rapidly and profoundly, plus gigatonne-scale CO 2 removal, are the only ways to achieve these climate goals. The demands of 2030 place additional urgency on laying the foundations for growing deployment of CCS to achieve net-zero global emissions at lowest cost and greatest speed. A set of actions are essential: Infrastructure CO 2 transportation and storage networks today help illustrate the scale of what is required. Estimates suggest that the 8,000 kilometers (5,000 mi) of existing CO 2 pipelines in North America must be expanded by an additional 35,000 kilometers (21,000 mi) to maximize emissions reduction. Similarly, industrial hubs and clusters, now under development in Europe, China, and the Middle East, can accelerate the deployment of CCS at reduced cost. More storage sites must be assessed and approved, and options like CO 2 shipping must be explored for costs, opportunities, and technology requirements. Projects Large capital projects like CCS projects and related infrastructure require 610 years from EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND 10 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPA conception to commissioning. Currently, there are 19 large-scale industrial and two large-scale CCS power facilities operating, with combined capacity of about 40 million tonnes of CO 2 per annum, and an additional 20 projects under development. The International Energy Agency (IEA), IPCC, and many other groups estimate CCS projects must mitigate 1.5 Gigatonnes per annum (Gtpa) by 2030 to stay on a 1.5 o C increase climate trajectoryan increase by a factor of 35 from today. This places urgency on commencing construction and completing infrastructure to serve the volume of CCS projects needed, and it is likely that additional human capital is needed to serve this essential market. Market-Alignment Through Policy Durable policies that align market dynamics and attract private capital will be essential most importantly, policies that enable project finance. These can include tax credits, feed-in tariffs, rate recovery, construction or procurement mandates, grants, projects of common interest, carbon pricing, contracts for differences, regulatory emissions caps, or combinations of these policies. Some additional modest policy measures (e.g., modification of the London Protocol; innovation policy and Research, Development, and Deployment, or RD clarification of long-term liability requirements) could play important roles in facilitating market adoption. By focusing on 2030 targets as a stepping-stone to midcentury net-zero targets, governments can select what actions, investments, and policies can best serve domestic and global needs. Similarly, investments and policies made over the next decade will lay the foundation for continued decarbonization to achieve global net-zero emissions by midcenturyNET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | SEPTEMBER 2020 | 11 The case for rapid and profound decarbonization has never been more obvious or more urgent. The consequences of unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions continue to manifest. As the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 exceeds 415 parts per million (ppm) and the atmospheric load of CO 2 approaches 1 trillion tonnes, the hottest decade on record is closing with the second-hottest year on record. Other chronic concerns, including wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, and extreme heat, are leading to widespread ecosystem damage and economic loss. Scientists predicted much of this over 30 years ago with surprising accuracy. The devastating wildfires in Australia, the bleaching of coral reefs, and the flooding associated with major storms and continued sea-level rise offer the starkest representation of what is at stake. Against this backdrop, it is increasingly clear how profoundly the world has failed to meet this challenge. Carbon emissions continue to rise, despite enormous progress on efficiency and clean energy generation, especially in wind and solar. The global climate agreement made in Paris and signed in Marrakesh is far from sufficient, placing the world on a trajectory well above 3 o C of warming (UNEP, 2019). While it was meant to be a first step leading to more ambitious targets, most countries are failing to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and it is unclear how they will achieve even these modest initial goals (FEU-US, 2019). While some nations, notably in Europe, find that politics supports higher ambition, the same politics can run counter to achieving environmental goals, as evidenced by the EUs recent climate deal with Poland (Strupczewski and Baczynska, 2019), retrenchment in Brazil with President Jair Bolsonaro (Diaz, 2019), continued investment in coal in India (Rathi, 2019; Bordoff, 2020), and other examples. Since the consequences of climate change are tied to the cumulative emissions in the atmosphere, every year of delay adds to our problem, making time the scarcest resource of all. The IPCC 1.5 o C report has highlighted the risks of further failure and made clear that we must achieve two specific, arithmetically binding targets to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change: Global net-zero emissions by midcentury, and Global net CO 2 removal afterwards at the multi-gigaton scale. The framework embodied by both of these targets is relatively new but now widely accepted. It also helps clarify a fundamental axiom of a successful energy transition and climate counterstrike: managing carbon emissions requires actually managing carbon emissions. Above all, one thesis remains central to both CO 2 reduction and climate restoration: withdrawals from the geosphere must be balanced by returns to the geosphere. Carbon stocks removed from Earth (the geosphere), past, present, and future, must be returned to the earth to balance the carbon and climate books for good. Said differently, the 2 trillion tonnes of CO 2 pulled from underground will not fit into the biosphere, which was in balance before the Industrial Revolution. INTRODUCTIONNET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND 12 | CENTER ON GLOBAL ENERGY POLICY | COLUMBIA SIPA With this straightforward point in mind, the technologies and tools of carbon management have special relevance. Carbon capture and storage, deployed in many sectors, is a tool for CO 2 reduction. Approaches like direct-air capture, CO 2 mineralization, and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)technologies and approaches described in this report are tools for CO 2 removal. Despite decades of economic and technical findings underscoring the importance of these approaches, they remain misunderstood and are often misrepresented as “experimental.” The core technology is mature: Industrial-scale CO 2 capture has operated successfully since 1938, and geological storage of CO 2 since 1972. The technology works on existing stock and new facilities: Carbon capture has already retrofitted steel, power, hydrogen, and other large facilities. This can accelerate decarbonization without premature retirement delay and takes advantage of existing capital stock. It also can serve to accelerate deployment of low-carbon hydrogen, low- carbon biofuels, and CO 2 removal technologies. Some supply chains are ready, while others require more support: Industrial-scale CO 2 capture units are commercially available from multiple vendors. Commercial geological storage expertise and systems operate around the globe. However, scaling up these systems will involve deployment of infrastructure, cultivation of human capital, and expanding operating systems through investment. Policy support is required: In some parts of the globe, regulatory systems operate well. Other parts of the globe require improved regulation. However, policies that align markets and help finance projects are inadequate for the task of global deployment. The arithmetic requirements and technical opportunities of a net-zero global energy system are clearest when considering the road to a midcentury goal. In this, 2030 stands out as a specific milestone on that journey, in part due to the framework of the Paris Accord and the opportunities and limits to managing new and existing capital stocks. Ten years is sufficient time to create and modify policy, plan large-scale capital investments, and build infrastructure necessary to achieve midcentury decarbonization. This next decade will be central to any successful climate strategy, and respecting the primacy of carbon management is essential for successNET-ZERO AND GEOSPHERIC RETURN: ACTIONS TODAY FOR 2030 AND BEYOND ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | SEPTEMBER 2020 | 13 First and foremost, atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 will continue to grow and global warming will increase until the world achieves net-zero emissions. By definition, achieving net- zero emissions requires that any emissions that are not reduced must be removed. Emissions reduction and removal are distinct in nature and are different from emissions avoided: Avoided emissions are those that might have occurred but do not (for example, by not building a steel mill due to overcapacity or by building a solar PV power station instead of a natural gas power plant). Reduced emissions are existing emissions that no longer occur. Emissions may be reduced by many means, including conservation, efficiency, CCS, or shutting down or displacing existing emissions sources. Removed emissions are those that were emitted and are retrieved from the air and oceans. These can be from natural processes (e.g., mineral weathering), managed ecosystems (e.g., afforestation) or engineered systems (e.g., BECCS). To achieve net-zero emissions, all emissions trajectories must decrease (Figure 1). However, if there are any residual emissions that are not reduced or mitigated, net-zero requires an equal mass of CO 2 removal. In many scenarios and descriptions, residual emissions are considered “hard-to-abate,” meaning either the cost is extre