FOLOWUSCONTACT US A CEIC Insights Report Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot Q2 2019 2 Executive Sumary Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 3 Economic Outlok TheEuroAreahasnotmanagedtoreboundfromtheprolongedslowdownsince2018andQ12019 datarevealedalmostnoaccelerationofGDPgrowthcomparedtothepreviousquarter.The manufacturingsectorcontinuestocontractduetoweakexternaldemandandglobal uncertainties. Weakinflationhasbeenplaguingtheeurozonegrowthprospectssincethebeginingoftheyear. ThishaspromptedtheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)tocutinterestratesandkeeptherefinancing rateat0%.AnewroundofECBsbond-buyingprogrammeisalsobeingconsidered. Afteraperiodofintensenegotiations,thenominationsforthechiefEuropeanpositionswere anounced,withUrsulavonderLeyen,ChristineLagardeandCharlesMichelbeingnominatedfor headoftheEuropeanComision,ECBpresidentandpresidentoftheEuropeanCouncil, respectively.Thestaunchlypro-EUcandidateswilgivetheblocsomemuchneededpolitical stabilityagainstthebackdropofrisingEuroscepticismandinternalsquables. Despitetheslowdown,somekeyfundamentalsremainstrong.Unemploymentrateisreachingpre- crisislevelsandfixedinvestmenthaskeptarobustperformance. Accordingtopreliminarydata,thesmothedCEICLeadingIndicatorfortheeurozoneeconomyfelto 84.6inJune2019,losing1.3pointscomparedtothepreviousmonth.Theindicatorhasbeendeclining sinceAugust2017,therebyanticipatingtheeurozonesweakeconomicperformancethroughout2018 andcoincidingwiththelukewarmforecastsfor2019.Whilethefirstquarteroftheyearsawsome positivesigns,duringtheApril-Juneperiodtheindicatorsperformanceweakenedagain,signifying thattheslowdownintheeurozonewouldlikelypersistthroughouttheyear.TheMarkitPurchasing ManagersIndex(PMI)hassomewhatrecoveredfromthefrefalinlate2018,butremainsfarfrom robust,especialyinthecaseofmanufacturingPMI,whichhasbeenstrugglingbetwen47.5and48 forthepastfourmonths,waybelowthethresholdvalueof50. Halfwaythrough2019theEuroAreagrowthoutlokisworsening,althoughtheriskofrecesion remainslow.ECBPresidentMarioDraghi,whoisatthelastmonthsofhistenure,anouncedthatthe centralbankwouldincreasethestimulusbycuttinginterestratesevenlowerandpossiblyrestartthe quantitativeeasingprogrammebySeptember2019.AccordingtoDraghi,theEuroAreagrowthis plaguedbythepresenceofuncertaintiesrelatedto“geopoliticalfactors,therisingthreatof protectionism,andvulnerabilitiesinemergingmarkets”.Nevertheless,someeconomicfundamentals remainstrong,especialythelabourmarketcondition,privateconsumption,andinvestment. Key Highlights EXECUTIVE SUMARY Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 4 ThemanufacturingsectorremainsthechiefisueofconcernfortheEuroAreaeconomy.Losesof outputandnewordersareseverelyhamperingthesector,notleastduetoglobaluncertainties. Contractionshavebeenobservedacrosthemajoreconomiesandespecialytheeurozoneeconomic engineGermanywheremanufacturingisexperiencingitsworstperformancesincethe2007-2009 financialcrisis.Sincethesectorisdrivenbyexportorders,itisstronglyaffectedbytheglobal economicslowdown,despitethefactthatoveralEuroAreaexportsremainrobust. Anothersourceofconcernisthepoliticalenvironment,wherestruggleshavebeenmoreexternalthan internal.OneofthemostalarmingdevelopmentscamefromtheUKwhereBorisJohnsonsucceded TheresaMayasPrimeMinisterinJuly.Johnson,oneofthemostprominentBrexitsupporters, promisedtoleadthecountryoutoftheEUonOctober31“atallcosts,”meaningthatano-dealBrexit mightstilocur,despitetheUKgovernmentsvoteforbiddingit.OntheothersideoftheAtlantic,US PresidentTrumphasonceagainbeenvocalabouthisdiscontentwiththeEUstradepolicy,arguing thattheweakeuroisgivingtheEUanunfairadvantage.Onthehomefront,theEuropeaninstitutions chiefpositionswerefinalydistributedmeaningthatrelativestabilityisexpectedatleastintheshort term. TheInternationalMoneyFund(IMF)predictsamodest1.3%growthin2019,whiletheECBprojection standsat1.2%.AccordingtotheFocusEconomicsconsensusforecast,realGDPwilgrowby1.1% anualyandby1%inQ22019. CEIC Leading Indicator Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Sumary 5 AlthoughtheEuroAreahasbeengrowingonanualtermsfor23consecutivequarterssinceQ22013, itseconomicdevelopmenthasshowedsignsofseveredecelerationinthepast12monthsandis expectedtocontinuestrugglingthroughouttherestof2019.Governmentspendingandhousehold consumptionhavebothincreasedmoderatelyandwhilefixedinvestmentkeepsonbeingrobust,net exportshavecontributedonceagainnegativelytooveralgrowth.Amongthemajoreconomies,only Spainhasmanagedtokeepupwithadecentpaceofover2%,withGermanyandFranceexperiencing asharpdecelerationandItalyshowingsomebenignsignsofrecoveryafterfalingintotechnical recesionattheendof2018. Seasonaly-adjustedrealgrosdomesticproduct(GDP)growth,asanouncedbyEurostat,remained flatinQ12019,miroringitsQ42018performanceat1.2%y/y,althoughitalsomarkedthefirstquarter sinceQ32017whenitdidnotdecelerate.Inq/qterms,thegrowthwasslightlyhigherthanthe0.2%at theendof2018-0.4%-butstilfarfromits2017performance. Industrialproductionindex(IPI)growthfelbacktonegativefiguresinMarchandasofMayshrank at0.5%.Boththeminingandquaryingandthemanufacturingsectorsarestruggling,whileenergy andconsumergoodshaveshownpositivedevelopments.Thedeclineinmanufacturing,especialyin majoreconomiessuchasGermany,hasbeenidentifiedasamajorreasonfortheslowdowninthe eurozone. EuroAreainflationhasbeenrapidlydecliningsinceOctober2018andtheharmonizedindexof consumerprices(HICP)stodat1.3%inJune,belowtheECBs2%target.Coreinflationwhichdoes nottakeintoacountenergy,food,alcoholandtobacopriceshasbeenrathervolatilesincethe beginingoftheyearandstodat1.1%inJune,closetothelong-termaverage.Thisresult,combined withthefalingordersinmanufacturing,signifiesthattherecoveryprocesoftheEuroAreahashita bump. EXECUTIVE SUMARY Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 Purchasing Managers Index Consumer Confidence and Business Climate Source: CEIC Data Source: CEIC Data A CEIC Insights Report 6 EA Economy: Statistics at a Glance Source: CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 Unit 07.01.201906.01.201905.01.201904.01.201903.01.201902.01.201901.01.2019 GDP: CL 2010p: swda: EA % 1,06 1,24 PMI: Manufacturing NA46,50 47,60 47,70 47,90 47,50 49,30 50,50 IndustrianProduction Index: YoY % -0,47 -0,28 -0,38 0,19 -0,75 Consumer Price Index: YoY % 1,10 1,30 1,20 1,70 1,40 1,50 1,40 PPI: YoY % 0,97 1,86 1,96 1,86 1,76 Imports: YoY % 2,39 4,38 7,74 5,27 4,00 Exports:YoY % 4,16 2,73 5,87 5,98 2,63 Unemployment Rate % 7,50 7,60 7,60 7,70 7,80 7,80 Wholesale & Retail Trade Index: YoY % 2,29 4,74 4,22 4,30 4,32 Wages and Salaries Index: YoY % Money Suply: M2: YoY % 5,07 5,37 5,54 5,36 4,67 4,22 Government Bond Yield: Monthly Average: Euro: 10 Years % pa 0,36 0,58 0,87 0,95 0,99 1,12 1,21 Policy Rate % pa 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Direct Investment EUR bn 20,70 -43,32 24,31 12,87 14,79 Curent Account EUR bn 13,31 20,66 33,33 18,88 11,38 Withtherecentdevelopmentsathand,theECBdecidedtokeepthepolicyrateat0%aswelasto maintainnegativedepositratesfortheforeseablefuture.ECBpresidentDraghiwilbesuccededby IMFchiefChristineLagardeinOctober,withanalystsexpectingnosignificantchangestothecentral bankpoliciesandstrategy.Whatistobeexpectedistheresumingofthequantitativeeasing programmeinordertoboosttheEuroAreaperformance. AccordingtoEurostatsseasonalyadjusteddata,theEuroArearanatradesurplusofEUR20.2bnin May2019,miroringtheyear-highperformanceofFebruary.Inadditiontothis,aftertwomonthsof decline,tradebalancereboundedsoundlyandincreasedby22.5%y/y.Theanualgrowthofexports surpasedthatofimportsforthesecondtimethisyearafterFebruary(4.2%and2.4%,respectively). Afterastrongstartoftheyear,tradewiththeUKplummetedagaininAprilandMay,followingthe renewedpossibilityofano-tradeBrexit. Source: A CEIC Insights Report 7 Real GDP Growth: QoQ CEIC Data EXECUTIVE SUMARY Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 ECB: Government Bond Yield: Curent and Projection Unemployment Rate: sa: Euro Area IMF GDP Growth Projections Headline and Core Inflation 8 Real Sector Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Real Sector 9 TheEuroAreaseconomicperformanceinQ12019reboundedsomehowfromthefrefalinthesecond halfof2018.Iny/ytermsrealGDPacceleratedmarginalyto1.24%from1.20%inQ42018. Nevertheless,theperformancemarksthefirstquartersinceQ32017whentheeurozoneeconomydid notdecelerate.Intermsofq/qgrowth,theincreaseamountedto0.4%,doublingtheprevious quartersperformance.Astrong4.8%increaseinfixedinvestmentwasagainthebackboneoftheEuro Areaeconomicperformance.Householdconsumptionincreasedby1.1%,almostmiroringtheprevious twoquartersresult.Thegrowthremainssomehowsluggishgiventhecontinuouslydecreasing unemploymentrateandrisingwages.Thesametrendcanbeobservedingovernmentspendingwhich alsoacceleratedonlymarginalyto1.1%y/y.Thegoodnewscomesfromtheexternalsector,where bothexportsandimportsstayedrobustthroughout2019,increasingby3.2%and4%y/y,respectively, inMay,despitetheglobaltradeslowdownandthecontinuingantagonismbetwentheUSandChina. Thedecelerationintheimportsectorismoreworying,asitdeceleratedtoitslowestvaluefor2019. Amongthebiggereurozoneeconomies,thedataforQ1revealadevelopmentsomewhatsimilartothe previousquarterwithonlymarginalgrowthacceleration.TheonenotableexceptionisItaly,wherethe realGDPshrankby0.1%y/y.Nevertheless,inq/qtermstheoutcomewaspositive,withanincreaseof 0.1%effectivelyendingtheperiodoftechnicalrecesion.Spaincontinuestobethebestperforming majoreconomy,growingby2.4%,whileGermanyandFrancekeptthepacefromthepreviousquarter, acceleratingonlymarginaly.Intermsofgrosvalueadded(GVA)growth,themanufacturingand industrysectors,whichcontributetoaroundone-thirdoftotalGVA,regainedsomeground, contractingby0.3%and0%y/yrespectively.Manufacturinghasfinalyshowedsomemildlypositive signswhichwasalsomiroredbyanuptickinPMI.Nevertheless,MayPMIvaluesstodat47.7,below thethresholdvalueof50.Thesectorisexperiencingparticulartroubleintheeurozonespowerhouse GermanywhichhasbeenstrugglingwithlowerdemandrelatedtoBrexitandglobaltrade uncertaintiesaswelastroublesintheautomotivesector.Thewholesaleandretail,transport, accomodation,andfoodsectorscontinuedshowingstability,growingby1.6%asawhole.However, thesesectorsgrowthhasalsobeendeceleratingsincetheendof2017. RetailsalesvolumeintheEuroAreadroppedby0.4%m/mforthefirsttimesinceDecember2018, signalingastagnationindomesticdemand.Thepositivedevelopmentindomestictradewasthe brightspotoftheeurozoneseconomicperformanceintheotherwiselacklustrestartof2019butis nowtakingmildblowsinthefoodandnon-foodsectors.Inanualterms,retailtradedeceleratedbut stayedpositive,growingby1.4%involume.Thegeneralyunderperforminggroupoftextiles,clothing, footwear&leatherwastheonlyonethatdecreased,falingby3.8%y/y.Amongtheeurozonemajor economies,Germanysretailsalesgrewby3.5%y/yinQ1,whileItalystruggledat0.7%,despite improvingitsperformancecomparedto2018.TheEuroAreaunemploymentratecontinuestodecline andasofAprilitwasatitslowestlevelsincethe2007-2008financialcrisis7.6%seasonaly adjusted.Nevertheless,youthunemploymentrate(ages15to24)continuestobehighat15.8%.Asof Q12019,unemploymentratesvarygreatlybetweneurozonememberstatesrangingfrom3%in Germanyto18.4%inGreece.WagesandsalariesgrowthdeceleratedmoderatelyinQ42018after threquartersofconsecutivegrowthandstodat2.2%.Grosaveragesalarygrowthwasparticularly stronginGermany(3.4%)despitetroublesinthemanufacturingsector.Inadditiontothis,theaverage wageinGermanycontinuestobethehighestamongthetopfoureurozoneeconomies,amountingto EUR3,938permonth. REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 Source: A CEIC Insights Report 10 GDP by Expenditure CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 GDP: Real Growth and Nominal Unit 06.01.201903.01.201912.01.201809.01.201806.01.201803.01.201812.01.2017 GDP: CL 2010p: swda: EA EUR bn2 670,312 664,932 653,012 646,732 642,202 632,172 621,66 Domestic Demand (DD) EUR bn 2 547,162 539,632 536,472 524,412 513,292 497,61 DD: Final Consumption Expenditure (FCE) EUR bn 1 980,361 972,041 964,251 962,301 958,221 951,00 DD: FCE: General Government EUR bn 546,05545,48542,13541,88539,75539,57 DD: FCE: Household and NPISH EUR bn 1 434,341 426,601 422,151 420,451 418,491 411,47 DD: Gros Capital Formation (GCF) EUR bn 567,12567,91572,54562,42555,38546,89 DD: GCF: Gros Fixed Capital Formation EUR bn 564,57564,25555,87553,56544,67543,12 Exports EUR bn 1 330,291 321,621 306,601 302,991 288,461 294,52 Exports: Gods EUR bn 985,98976,57965,56967,17957,36960,50 Exports: Services EUR bn 344,42345,00341,01336,00331,32334,18 Imports EUR bn 1 212,381 208,321 196,371 184,921 169,111 169,86 Imports: Gods EUR bn 904,83899,37891,67884,79874,38874,63 Imports: Services EUR bn 309,38310,57306,41301,96296,66297,28 Real GDP Growth: Top 4 Economies A CEIC Insights Report 11 Households and NPISH: Consumption Expenditure: YoY Fixed Investment: YoY General Government: Consumption Expenditure: YoY Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 12 Exports of Gods and Services: YoY GDP: by Income Imports of Gods and Services: YoY Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 A CEIC Insights Report 13 GDP by Income: YoY Gros Value Aded: by Industry Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 GVA Growth: Major Industries A CEIC Insights Report 14 Industrial Production Index: YoY IPI: Top 4 Economies Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 Wholesealeand Retail Trade Index: Volume and Value A CEIC Insights Report 15 Construction Production Index: YoY Retail Sales: Top 4 Economies House Price Index: YoY Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Unemployment Rate Wages and Salaries Index: YoY 16 Unemployment Rate: Top 4 Economies Source: CEIC Data REAL SECTOR Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 17 Monetary & Financial Sector Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright 2019 CEIC, al rights reserved. A CEIC Insights Report Euro Area Economy in a Snapshot, Q1 2019 A CEIC Insights Report Monetary & Financial Sector 18 Consumerpriceindex(CPI)intheeurozonecontinuestostrugglebelowtheECBstargetof2%andas ofJunestodat1.2%.CPIhasbeendecliningrapidlysinceOctober2018asidefromabriefboostin April2019.Since2015,theEuroAreahassufferedfrompersistentlylowinflationratesthathaveonly managedtoreachtheECBstargetforshortperiods,thelastbeingMay-October2018.Withthe cooldownoftheunionseconomysincethebeginingoftheyear,thepolicymakersabandonedplans ofraisingtheinterestratesinthenearfuture.ThenominationofChristineLagardetosuccedMario DraghiasECBpresidentinNovember2019ledtospeculationthatthequantitativeeasingprogramme, whichLagardehadsupportedpreviously,mayreturnasanECB