eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics energy- related carbon dioxide emissions fall further before leveling off or rising. Renewable energy incentives and falling technology costs support robust competition with natural gas as coal and nuclear power decrease in the electricity mix. Continuing record-high domestic energy production supports natural gas exports but does not necessarily mean growth in the U.S. trade balance in petroleum products. AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 4AEO2021 examines a range of conditions from 2020 to 2050 Assumptions Current laws and regulations as of September 2020 remain unchanged Current views on economic and demographic trends, and technology improvements Compound annual growth rate for real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is 2.1% (Reference case) High Economic Growth case (2.6%) and Low Economic Growth case (1.6%) The Brent crude oil price by 2050 is $95 per barrel (b) in constant 2020 dollars (Reference case) High Oil Price case ($173/b) and Low Oil Price case ($48/b) Oil and natural gas supply cases High: more accessible resources and lower extraction technology costs than the Reference case Low: fewer accessible resources and higher extraction technology costs than the Reference case Renewables cost cases High: no cost reductions in renewable technologies Low: renewables achieve 40% lower overnight capital costs by 2050 compared to Reference case AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 5AEO2021 cases vary technical and macroeconomic assumptions AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 6 Low Economic Growth case Low Oil Price case Low Oil and Gas Supply case Low Renewables Cost case Reference case High Economic Growth case High Oil Price case High Oil and Gas Supply case High Renewables Cost case Higher Lower Expected Current laws and regulations as of September 2020 Potential new laws Technical and macroeconomic assumptions Policy assumptions Note: EPAs Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule (84 FR 32520) was vacated after AEO2021 case were run. See AEO2021 Narrative for more discussionAEO2021 Highlights A return to 2019 levels of U.S. energy consumption will take years; energy- related carbon dioxide emissions fall further before leveling off or rising. Renewable energy incentives and falling technology costs support robust competition with natural gas as coal and nuclear power decrease in the electricity mix. Continuing record-high domestic energy production supports natural gas exports but does not necessarily mean growth in the U.S. trade balance in petroleum products. AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 7U.S. gross domestic product assumptions AEO2021 economic growth cases trillion 2012 dollars U.S. delivered energy across end-use sectors AEO2021 economic growth cases quadrillion British thermal units AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 The pace of recovery for gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption remains highly uncertain 8 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth 2024 2050 2029 0 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic GrowthU.S. energy consumption by sector AEO2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units U.S. energy consumption by fuel AEO2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 Industrial and electric power drive most of the increases in U.S. energy consumption in the Reference case 9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 electric power industrial transportation residential commercial 2020 history projections 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections petroleum and other liquids natural gas other renewable energy coal nuclear hydro liquid biofuelsThe majority of petroleum consumption growth occurs in industrial sector use of liquefied petroleum gas 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2020 2030 2040 2050 transportation industrial commercial residential electric power Petroleum and other liquids consumption by sector AEO2021 Reference case quadrillion British thermal units Petroleum and other liquids consumption by fuel type AEO2021 Reference case million barrels per day 0 2 4 6 8 10 2020 2030 2040 2050 motor gasoline liquefied petroleum gas distillate fuel oil jet fuel other residual fuel oil AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel AEO2021 Reference case billion metric tons U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions AEO2021 economic growth cases billion metric tons AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions continue to decrease, but they start growing after 2035 in the Reference case 11 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 petroleum natural gas coal 2020 history projections 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections High Economic Growth Reference Low Economic Growth other casesAEO2021 Highlights A return to 2019 levels of U.S. energy consumption will take years; energy- related carbon dioxide emissions fall further before leveling off or rising. Renewable energy incentives and falling technology costs support robust competition with natural gas as coal and nuclear power decrease in the electricity mix. Continuing record-high domestic energy production supports natural gas exports but does not necessarily mean growth in the U.S. trade balance in petroleum products. AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 12AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 Note: Onsite generation is electricity produced onsite for own use. Electricity demand grows modestly throughout the projection period 13 -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections High Economic Growth Reference Low 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 1990 2020 2050 onsite generation purchased electricity residential industrial commercial transportation U.S. electricity use growth rate, three-year rolling average AEO2021 economic growth cases percentage growth U.S. electricity use by end-use sector AEO2021 Reference case billion kilowatthoursElectricity generating capacity increases 52% to 84% across AEO cases; additions come mostly from solar, wind, and natural gas 14 26 94 23 97 21 375 253 466 297 446 114 200 105 237 121 435 563 385 657 206 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 additions Reference case Low Oil and Gas Supply case High Oil and Gas Supply case solar wind natural gas and oil nuclear other coal 6 2 2 Low Renewables Cost case High Renewables Cost case 2 -29 -14 -59 -58 -26 -111 -91 -128 -120 -107 -49 -64 -52 -58 -48 -400 -200 0 retirements AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (20212050) AEO2021 selected cases gigawattsElectricity generation increases by a third; natural gas prices influence competition with renewables AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 15AEO2021 Highlights A return to 2019 levels of U.S. energy consumption will take years; energy- related carbon dioxide emissions fall further before leveling off or rising. Renewable energy incentives and falling technology costs support robust competition with natural gas as coal and nuclear power decrease in the electricity mix. Continuing record-high domestic energy production supports natural gas exports but does not necessarily mean growth in the U.S. trade balance in petroleum products. AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 160 5 10 15 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections U.S. dry natural gas production AEO2021 oil and gas supply and price cases trillion cubic feet U.S. liquefied natural gas exports AEO2021 supply and price cases trillion cubic feet AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 Natural gas production grows significantly in most cases but with a wide range of outcomes 17 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections High Oil and Gas Supply High Oil Price Reference Low Oil Price Low Oil and Gas Supply High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Supply Reference Low Oil and Gas Supply Low Oil Price0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 2020 2050 2050 2050 Reference Reference High Oil and Gas Low Oil and Gas case case Supply case Supply case Natural gas consumption in the Reference case grows the most in the industrial sector; electric power and exports are the most sensitive to prices 18 net exports industrial electric power commercial residential transportation U.S. natural gas consumption by sector and net exports, 2020 and 2050 AEO2021 selected cases trillion cubic feet AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 20210 5 10 15 20 25 30 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections U.S. crude oil and natural gas plant liquids production AEO2021 oil and gas supply cases million barrels per day AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 In all cases, the United States continues to be a globally significant producer of crude oil and refined liquids 19 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 history projections High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Supply Reference Low Oil and Gas Supply Low Oil Price U.S. petroleum and other liquids net exports AEO2021 oil and gas supply and price side cases million barrels per day High Oil and Gas Supply Reference Low Oil and Gas Supply Reference (crude onlyAEO2021 Highlights A return to 2019 levels of U.S. energy consumption will take years; energy- related carbon dioxide emissions fall further before leveling off or rising. Renewable energy incentives and falling technology costs support robust competition with natural gas as coal and nuclear power decrease in the electricity mix. Continuing record-high domestic energy production supports natural gas exports but does not necessarily mean growth in the U.S. trade balance in petroleum products. AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 20AEO2021 Press Release February 3, 2021 21