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老龄化的估值研究系列之消费篇：尚能贵否.pdf

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老龄化的估值研究系列之消费篇：尚能贵否.pdf

1 / 14 2021 05 07 - - 2021.5.6 - -2021.5.5 - 2021 - 2021.5.2 S0790520040001 S0790120040049 A 65 7% 2019 2000-2019 1972- 1992 20 65 7% 12.60% 1980-1993 1988-1992 1993 19932 / 14 1 . 3 1.1 . 3 1.2 . 4 2 . 5 3 . 9 4 . 12 1 2019 . 3 2 1971 1942 . 4 3 2000 . 4 4 . 4 5 . 5 6 . 6 7 7 8 1993 1993 . 8 9 1992 . 8 10 . 9 11 . 10 12 . 11 13 . 123 / 14 4 14 4 1 1.1 2019 60 10% 65 7% 65 7% 2019 65 12.60% 16.21% 28.00% 6.38% 014 1 2019 Wind =014 65 /1564 2000 65 7% 2000 1942 1971 2019 12.60% 1993 1992 51 21 16.80 18.55 12.57 26.62 70.60 65.24 59.42 67.00 12.60 16.21 28.00 6.38 41.64% 53.28% 68.28% 49.25% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 : :0-14 % : :15-64 % : :65 4 / 14 2 1971 1942 3 2000 Wind Wind 1.2 GICS 4 Wind 2021-04-30 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 :65 : :65 : 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : :65 % :65 : % 58.25% 30.89% 27.55% 55.51% 41.75% 69.11% 72.45% 44.49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 805 / 14 5 Wind 2021-04-30 2 2021-04-30 1 PE 2 PE GISC 31.46% 0.96% 0.17% 1.39% 18.18% 4.99% 6.79% 12.62% 10.65% 0.50% 0.64% 2.67% 6.84% 1.29% 8.89% 6.39% 3.89% 1.03% 0.41% 0.07% 3.85% 8.77% 20.35% 11.48% 2.93% 0.76% 0.16% 0.53% 2.46% 0.16% 10.10% 0.71% 1.97% 1.64% 5.31% 9.99% 1.80% 1.53% 0.59% 7.22% 1.54% 0.41% 0.06% 0.02% 1.35% 0.30% 2.18% 0.93% 1.30% 0.01% 0.24% 2.05% 1.18% 0.25% 0.81% 1.01% 1.16% 0.53% 0.35% 0.05% 1.07% 0.08% 2.10% 2.65% 0.94% 1.09% 3.45% 0.00% 0.92% 0.51% 2.31% 0.00% 0.84% 0.36% 3.30% 0.04% 0.72% 0.60% 0.48% 0.07% 0.64% 4.97% 0.47% 1.04% 0.49% 0.09% 0.48% 5.80% 0.47% 5.50% 1.99% 16.39% 0.43% 0.61% 3.88% 5.38% 0.43% 6.22% 1.32% 0.02% 0.40% 21.86% 2.97% 0.02% 0.40% 0.52% 1.37% 0.00% 0.35% 2.32% 0.63% 0.00% 0.30% 2.10% 1.48% 0.08% 0.19% 2.39% 5.81% 0.27% 0.17% 5.35% 2.60% 1.54% 0.17% 0.34% 0.24% 0.01% 0.17% 2.66% 0.17% 1.14% 0.15% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.08% 2.63% 2.05% 7.46% 0.07% 0.42% 1.14% 0.00% 0.03% 0.72% 0.37% 0.02% 0.02% 1.77% 2.83% 0.00% 0.00% 5.57% 0.43% 0.02% 0.00% 6.05% 1.03% 0.77% 0.00% 2.00% 0.01% 0.126 / 14 6 Wind 2021-04-30 PE PE PE PE 136.28 16.27 11.69 15.39 56.27 25.42 28.00 37.77 54.27 40.66 23.51 13.38 42.30 15.24 31.41 51.81 40.65 12.39 13.91 111.95 39.84 23.33 19.66 16.46 38.94 21.08 18.04 35.01 27.99 36.15 58.82 34.75 14.29 15.24 23.46 31.04 20.57 18.85 31.57 25.80 27.72 8.24 244.54 6.79 57.66 15.25 18.14 222.18 11.89 10.10 68.40 6.83 36.09 85.04 48.30 15.62 11.07 59.83 46.05 95.30 37.69 18.65 41.03 44.22 18.95 39.92 33.03 21.74 59.44 39.73 20.32 16.18 75.22 36.67 21.54 26.78 23.82 34.56 18.72 20.22 31.78 34.95 32.97 8.62 30.62 22.95 18.52 112.92 29.80 25.42 17.97 21.29 29.75 26.97 16.41 22.41 27.28 22.98 7.52 11.59 25.91 38.64 29.55 58.64 25.21 20.41 22.86 56.20 24.77 18.21 16.56 18.63 23.68 10.65 17.49 12.73 21.25 26.17 99.49 21.09 19.10 26.38 23.55 20.24 13.99 12.71 2.22 19.93 27.67 12.08 49.87 19.38 27.17 30.75 17.82 17.48 27.82 32.66 7.84 14.98 17.46 15.13 359.37 14.29 19.04 15.93 29.87 8.29 20.33 108.55 32.59 16.99 9.65 15.31 15.00 8.00 3.00 15.00 2.00 2.48 2.95 2.177 / 14 7 Wind 2021-04-30 65 12.60% 2019 1 65 7% 12.60% 1980- 1993 1988-1992 40 PE 2 1993 1993 1992 GISC 2021 PE 2021 PE 2021 PE 2021 PE 178.93 29.42 0.14 244.54 136.28 14.50 11.69 16.32 57.98 201.29 24.26 66.73 56.08 33.69 27.64 50.91 52.09 42.91 22.56 276.64 45.22 20.63 22.39 0.00 42.49 23.08 41.78 69.28 36.39 17.41 18.55 132.03 35.01 58.51 30.34 63.16 34.50 14.80 24.15 139.27 23.84 32.22 111.60 82.14 6.79 73.21 15.94 5.21 222.18 14.75 13.77 0.00 86.65 56.77 0.00 75.84 69.15 263.80 663.26 542.69 62.44 38.91 36.07 15.22 57.20 31.67 14.45 2126.61 53.77 63.08 17.10 12.69 53.32 1.10 15.81 16.88 45.77 15.16 22.63 1.71 41.86 16.39 11.07 71.95 40.93 26.40 36.25 759.79 39.28 24.15 17.97 33.42 38.62 43.98 53.56 94.19 37.76 60.86 32.39 17.07 36.04 23.55 2.31 192.77 34.33 31.95 19.72 200.59 33.03 58.54 44.80 98.79 32.98 21.39 21.30 75.22 28.75 33.34 17.09 0.00 27.76 8.44 27.04 60.10 25.53 7.87 4.43 27.74 20.82 0.00 10.12 185.85 14.29 34.58 23.78 0.00 14.12 308.55 83.02 0.11 9.71 316.81 5.64 31.07 9.34 534.62 14.02 183.80 7.27 4.76 2.70 14.19 0.00 28.84 6.80 20.33 0.00 12.62 32.59 0.00 0.00 11.47 14.95 15.31 9.00 10.00 3.00 16.00 2.18 2.53 3.05 2.068 / 14 1942 2019 65 16.21% 1971 2019 65 28.00% 90 1992-2020 GDP 0.58% 2.34% 8 1993 1993 Wind 1993 1980-1993 1993 1994-2020 9 1992 Wind 1992 1988-1992 1992 1993-2020 1993 PE 1993 PE 1993 -1993 1993 PE 1993 PE 1993 -1993 28.16 6.54 11.12 4.58 11.75 25.78 14.03 7.37 11.63 4.27 7.03 18.22 11.19 13.78 17.76 3.98 7.01 17.47 10.46 6.19 10.14 3.95 9.06 18.63 9.57 5.95 9.87 3.92 5.24 14.57 9.33 6.84 10.50 3.66 7.53 15.52 7.99 8.16 11.36 3.20 9.47 17.28 7.81 12.89 14.16 1.26 2.52 10.30 7.78 9.73 10.42 0.68 7.26 14.89 7.63 20.67 20.97 0.30 5.51 13.14 7.63 13.54 13.70 0.15 6.88 14.17 7.29 13.67 13.56 -0.10 11.71 18.62 6.90 12.91 12.35 -0.57 9.76 16.50 6.74 9.77 9.06 -0.71 7.99 14.71 6.72 14.49 13.53 -0.97 12.18 18.83 6.65 16.73 14.20 -2.53 8.83 14.81 5.97 24.56 13.34 -11.22 0.67 6.51 5.84 32.62 20.93 -11.69 5.44 10.63 5.19 47.89 18.18 -29.71 10.98 16.00 5.02 49.79 9.23 -40.56 6.44 11.40 4.96 1992 PE 1992 PE 1992 -1992 16.25 25.19 8.94 21.18 28.43 7.26 15.61 19.81 4.20 12.94 15.63 2.68 6.86 8.43 1.57 19.26 20.40 1.15 13.22 11.81 -1.41 13.69 10.88 -2.81 21.91 18.86 -3.05 19.73 15.46 -4.27 28.78 21.67 -7.10 18.55 10.88 -7.67 18.45 10.56 -7.89 21.82 13.12 -8.71 24.68 14.45 -10.23 34.28 22.21 -12.07 63.73 22.22 -41.509 / 14 3 10 Wind 2020 GISC 2.02% 100.15% 36.19% 0.09% 10.19% 74.65% 59.72% 10.40% 56.85% 10.26% 13.21% 17.59% 52.21% 53.21% 9.24% 0.53% 49.75% 36.32% 1.71% 29.12% 47.00% 67.97% 45.86% 65.22% 6.61% 4.77% 43.47% 80.68% 20.80% 22.26% 38.01% 27.57% 22.31% 23.99% 34.87% 22.68% 16.72% 1.12% 34.28% 0.00% 3.84% 27.64% 33.51% 12.28% 0.00% 42.09% 30.90% 89.39% 33.76% 30.10% 46.27% 24.17% 11.03% 27.66% 18.25% 18.50% 41.37% 27.20% 21.95% 18.99% 26.76% 8.97% 26.19% 15.11% 0.90% 22.97% 0.15% 22.82% 0.00% 51.20% 22.55% 31.88% 4.93% 21.64% 37.04% 49.80% 21.01% 57.66% 6.80% 20.90% 14.17% 24.11% 26.98% 20.18% 20.44% 80.49% 10.62% 20.14% 15.77% 21.86% 4.90% 18.93% 13.92% 2.90% 2.59% 17.97% 8.73% 2.36% 30.03% 17.81% 57.78% 16.73% 17.87% 16.43% 14.15% 17.07% 26.81% 14.03% 5.70% 1.22% 9.13% 7.92% 3.88% 0.00% 8.40% 12.89% 6.13% 18.85% 5.91% 0.00% 0.03% 5.59% 13.85% 5.10% 0.00% 8.74% 0.01% 0.00% 43.64% 26.30% 0.00% 3.8610 / 14 11 Wind 2020 2020 99.71% 99.86% -20.76% GISC - - 56.25% 0.56% 51.01% 2.17% 48.26% 32.76% 40.85% 0.00% 39.86% -5.25% 36.98% 22.94% 36.25% 27.57% 35.95% 26.41% 34.26% 17.93% 29.99% 76.65% 18.06% -13.00% 12.28% 12.23% -12.89% 9.54% 0.75% 9.36% 3.78% 4.50% 3.42% 4.30% 0.00% 2.70% -7.03% 1.49% -20.44% 0.81% 0.12% 6.66% 0.00% 1.74% 0.00% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.66% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.03% -0.06% -2.45% 0.00% -6.70% 35.68% -7.52% -10.25% -11.89% 0.00% -37.77% 0.00% 3.42% 0.5611 / 14 2021-04- 30 PE 652.59 11.47 PE 41.83 27.21 12 Wind 2009-2020 2000-2020 99.71% 1.32% -20.76% 51.78% 60.01% 24.55% 99.86% 2.31% 6.23% 30.10% 21.30% 132.35% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 202012 / 14 13 Wind 2020 PE 2021- 04-30 4 0 50 100 150 200 250 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% PE13 / 14 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50014 / 14 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065

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