激光雷达：助力智慧出行探索无人驾驶.pdf
1 / 33 2021 04 20 - -2021.4.15 - -2021.4.12 - -2021.3.31 S0790520110002 P5 S & 2019 1226 30% 2020 L4/L5 ADAS 2025 135.4 2025 43.1 2019-2025 63.1% 2021 -15% 0% 15% 31% 46% 62% 3002 / 33 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.1.1 . 4 1.1.2 . 6 1.1.3 . 6 1.1.4 . 7 1.2 . 9 1.2.1 . 9 1.2.2 . 11 2 . 13 2.1 . 13 2.1.1 . 13 2.1.2 . 14 2.1.3 . 15 2.2 . 19 2.2.1 . 19 2.2.2 . 20 2.3 2021 . 24 3 . 26 3.1 . 26 3.2 . 28 3.3 . 29 4 . 31 1 P5 . 4 2 S . 4 3 ADAS . 5 4 . 5 5 . 6 6 . 7 7 . 7 8 . 8 9 . 8 10 . 9 11 . 10 12 . 11 13 . 11 14 PKMT . 12 15 Velodyne . 13 16 . 13 17 . 153 / 33 18 2019-2025 64.5% . 16 19 2019 . 16 20 2025 Robotaxi/Robotruck ADAS . 16 21 Robotaxi/Robotruck 2019-2025 80.9% . 17 22 ADAS 2019-2025 83.7% . 17 23 2019-2025 63.1% . 18 24 . 20 25 . 21 26 . 22 27 Luminar . 24 28 Luminar . 24 29 . 25 30 . 26 31 . 26 32 . 26 33 . 26 34 . 27 35 OBM . 28 36 . 28 37 . 28 38 . 28 39 2019 75% . 29 40 2019 85% . 29 41 . 29 42 . 30 43 . 30 44 . 30 45 . 31 46 2019 95% . 31 1 2021 1 1 . 6 2 . 9 3 . 10 4 2016 . 13 5 2025 ADAS 216 . 18 6 . 19 7 . 20 8 . 21 9 . 22 10 . 23 11 . 24 12 . 27 13 . 27 14 20210420 . 314 / 33 1 P5 S P5 XPILOT 3.5 32 360 ARCFOX S HI OS 1 P5 2 S ARCFOX 1.1 1.1.1 ADAS X5 / 33 3 ADAS SAE L0-L5 L0-L2 ADAS L0 L3-L5 L0 L1 L2 L1 / L2 L3 4 SAE 2020 3 2021 1 1 SAE 0 0 -26 / 33 SAE 3 1 2021 1 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 * * 1.1.2 5 1.1.3 2019 1226 307 / 33 6 2019 23 2025 3994 136.2% 7 1.1.4 2014 10 2015 2025 2020 2025 2016 3 2016 2017 2017 2025 + 2018 2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 0 100 200 300 400 500 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E (8 / 33 8 2030 2025 L4 2030 L3 L4 50% L2 2021 2020 L2 15% 2020 2.0 2025 PA CA 50% C-V2X 50% 2030 PA CA 70% HA 20% C-V2X 9 2.09 / 33 1.2 1.2.1 L4-L5 - - 2 4D V2X V2X V2X V2X 1010 / 33 11 2020 5G 3 5G 2025 LTE-VX2 5G-V2X11 / 33 12 1.2.2 1312 / 33 2030 PKMT 13% PKMT 11% 2040 66% 55% 14 PKMT 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2018 2030E 2040E13 / 33 2 2.1 L4/L5 ADAS 15 Velodyne 16 Velodyne 2.1.1 2016 2016-2018 2019 Velodyne Luminar Aeva Innoviz 2021 4 2016 1960 1970 1971 15 1980 1990 Sick Hokuyo 2D 2000 DARPA14 / 33 2010 Velodyne IbeoLUX 4 8 2010 Ibeo Tier1 Valeo SCALA 2016 2018 40 Pandar40 MEMS Innoviz 1550nm Luminar 2019 Ouster VCSEL SPAD Velodyne Luminar Aeva Innoviz 2.1.2 FPGA 1 2 FPGA 3 4 1 2 Tier 1 315 / 33 4 “ ” 17 2.1.3 116 / 33 2025 135.4 20192025 64.5% 18 2019-2025 64.5% 2019 60% 2025 Robotaxi/Robotruck ADAS 26% 34% 35% Robotaxi/Robotruck ADAS 19 2019 20 2025 Robotaxi/Robotruck ADAS Report Linker 2025 L4/L5 53.5 2025 35 2019-2025 80.9% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Robotaxi/Robotruck ADAS Robotaxi/Robotruck ADAS17 / 33 21 Robotaxi/Robotruck 2019-2025 80.9% SOP Yole 2025 L3 6% 600 5 2025 46.1 2019 2025 83.7% 22 ADAS 2019-2025 83.7% 2 2025 43.1 2019-2025 63.1% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Robotaxi/Robotruck 0 10 20 30 40 50 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E ADAS18 / 33 23 2019-2025 63.1% 5 2025 ADAS 216 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2017.8 2078.9 2141.9 2206.7 2273.6 2342.4 2413.4 2486.5 2561.8 2639.4 2719.4 5200 3830 3190 2600 2068 1547 1042 650 605 563 522 L2/L3 15% 22% 29% 36% 43% 50% 54% 58% 62% 66% 70% L2/L3 302.7 457.4 621.1 794.4 977.6 1171.2 1303.2 1442.2 1588.3 1742.0 1903.6 L2/L3 1% 6% 16% 28% 43% 65% 82% 90% 96% 100% L2/L3 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 L4 0.01% 0.02% 0.03% 0.05% 1.00% 4.50% 15.50% 17.50% 18.90% 20.00% L4 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 23.4 108.6 385.4 448.3 498.8 543.9 L4 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% L4 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.5 5 6 L2/L3 3.4 29.1 82.6 144.3 202.6 233.8 208.3 233.7 254.1 268.1 L4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 13.8 46.9 112.7 122.1 140.4 170.2 3.5 29.6 83.2 145.2 216.3 280.7 321.0 355.8 394.5 438.3 Livox 2.0 2020 2013-2019 2021-2030 L2/L3 L4 Livox 2020 800 2023 400 L4 100 2.0 Livox 2027 100 26 2020 L2 15% 2020 2.0 2025 PA CA 50% C-V2X 50% 2030 PA CA 70% HA 20% 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E19 / 33 2030 L2/L3 L4 100% 2025 ADAS 216 2.2 2.2.1 1 5m 2 200m Continental 77GHz ARS408-21 1.6 3 4 Tier1 L3 6 200m Ofweek20 / 33 Autopilot + 24 ET7 P5 HBT 2.2.2 ToF FMCW ToF FMCW 100250 m ToF FMCW ToF FMCW 7 ToF FMCW FMCW21 / 33 MEMS OPA Flash 25 Velodyne Ouster Velodyne 2006 2017 Luminar Innoviz Aeva Innovusion Ibeo Ouster Quanergy 8 360 360 Velodyne - - Ouster - - Luminar MEMS Innoviz MEMS Aeva MEMS MEMS Livox MEMS Ibeo Optical Phased Array, OPA Flash Ibeo Flash Ouster Flash Quanergy OPA ICVTank 2021 422 / 33 26 Luminar Aeva Innoviz Ibeo ADAS Luminar 1550nm 905nm Aeva FMCW Innoviz MEMS Ibeo VCSEL SPAD 9 Pandar40P Pandar64 QT VCSEL+ XT V1.0 IPO Velodyne ADAS 2020 9 NASDAQ 2006 2017 Luminar 1550nm InGaAs 2020 12 NASDAQ 2022 Aeva FMCW 2021 NYSE Innoviz 2021 NASDAQ 2021 L323 / 33 Ouster VCSEL SPAD 2021 NYSE Ibeo VCSEL SPAD 2016 ZF 40% Valeo SCALA Valeo Ibeo SCALA ADAS 2018 10 3 C Livox Tele-15 Mid-70 Avia Horizon 2019 3 2021 4 P5 Livox 96 2021 10 2020 2021 4 S HI 3 10 1024 / 33 2.3 2021 2020 2021 BMW 2021 L3 BMW Visioni NEXT Mercedes-Benz L3 2021 S V olvo 2022 2021 Legend L3 11 ET7 2022 Innovusion 120 FOV 300 P5 2021 Q4 2 Livox 120 FOV 150 (10% ) S 2021 Q4 3 96 120 FOV 150 LEGEND 2021 3 5 A8 4 SCALA L3 S 2021 1 16 SCALA2 LS 2021 3D 2022 Luminar 2021 Ibeo NEXT Ofweek 27 Luminar 28 Luminar 2021 4 15 P5 P5 XPILOT 3.5 150 150m 0.16 32 36025 / 33 29 ARCFOX 2021 4 17 S HI S HI 3 9 ADAS 6 12 4 35226 / 33 3 3.1 ODM 2020 90% 30 31 Wind Wind 32 33 Wind Wind 1 2016 PT ODM 2016 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 ( ) (% ) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 ( ) (%) (%) 69% 13% 11% 6% 1% , 71.3% , 18.7% , 4.4% , 5.2% , 0.527 / 33 Datalogic 12 65% 48% Prims pool 100% Prexiso AG 87% 49% 34 2 + 2020 15.7% 13 Goldblatt 2010 Pony Jorgensen 2016 Arrow 2018 Prime-line 2019 Swiss+Tech 201928 / 33 35 OBM 36 Wind Wind 3.2 37 38 Wind Wind 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2018 2019 2020 OBM ODM 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 ( ) (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 ( ) (%) (29 / 33 39 2019 75% 40 2019 85% Wind Wind ADAS ADAS 2020 2021 ADAS 41 3.3 HS4000 Pandar40 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 85% 13% 230 / 33 Pandar40P Pandar64 PandarQT Pandar40M Pandar128 PandarXT Pandora PandarGT PandarMind 42 2017-2019 2017 0.19 2019 3.48 2019 94% 2019 Pandra64 64% 2020 Pandra128 Pandra40M Pandra QT Pandra XT PandraMind 43 44 Wind Wind 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1-Q3 ( ) (% ) -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1-Q3 ( ) (%) (31 / 33 45 46 2019 95% Wind Wind 14 20210420 EPS PE 2020A/E 2021E 2022E 2020A/E 2021E 2022E 002444.SZ 36.17 1.26 1.38 1.67 24.8 26.2 21.7 002414.SZ 34.66 0.65 0.72 0.82 53.3 47.9 42.5 A21002.SH - - - - - - - Wind Wind 4 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1-Q3 Pandar64 40 PandarQT Pandar128 95% 5% 032 / 33 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50033 / 33 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
