A Scientic Assessment with Key Messages for Policy-Makers A Special Volume of UNEPs Frontiers Report Series PREVENTING THE NEXT PANDEMIC PREVENTING THE NEXT PANDEMIC Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission2020 United Nations Environment Programme ISBN No: 978-92-807-3792-9 Job No: DEW/2290/NA This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from UNEP . 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Our distribution policy aims to reduce UNEPs carbon footprintPREVENTING THE NEXT PANDEMIC PREVENTING THE NEXT PANDEMIC Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission A Scientic Assessment with Key Messages for Policy-Makers A Special Volume of UNEPs Frontiers Report Seriesi Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) would like to thank the authors, reviewers and the supporting organizations for their contribution to the preparation of this rapid scientific assessment report. Lead Author Delia Grace Randolph (Natural Resources Institute, NRI, of the University of Greenwich, and International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya). Co-Authors Johannes Refisch (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya), Susan MacMillan (International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), Caradee Yael Wright (South African Medical Research Council, SAMRC, Pretoria, South Africa), Bernard Bett (International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), Doreen Robinson (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya), Bianca Wernecke (South African Medical Research Council, SAMRC, Pretoria, South Africa), Hu Suk Lee (International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), William B. Karesh (EcoHealth Alliance, New York, USA), Catherine Machalaba (EcoHealth Alliance, New York, USA), Amy Fraenkel (Secretariat of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals, CMS, Bonn, Germany), Marco Barbieri (Secretariat of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals, CMS, Bonn, Germany) and Maarten Kappelle (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya). UNEP Frontiers series editors Maarten Kappelle and Pinya Sarasas (both: UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya). Reviewers Hilary Allison (World Conservation Monitoring Centre, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK), Neville Ash (World Conservation Monitoring Centre, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK), Daniel Bergin (GlobeScan, Hong Kong SAR, Peoples Republic of China), Tianna Brand (World Organisation for Animal Health, OIE, Paris, France), Alessandro Broglia (Italian Office, Vtrinaires Sans Frontires, VSF, Legnaro, Italy), Randy Burd (Long Island University, Brookville, NY, USA), Neil D. Burgess (World Conservation Monitoring Centre, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK), H. David Cooper (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, CBD, Montreal, Canada), Miguel Cardo (Portuguese Office, Vtrinaires Sans Frontires, VSF, Lisbon, Portugal), Keti Chachibaia (United Nations Development Programme, UNDP , New York, NY, USA), Katie Clow (Canadian Office, Vtrinaires Sans Frontires (VWB/VSF), Ottawa, Ontario, Canada), Patricia Cremona (International Union for Conservation of Nature, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland), Sergey Dereliev (Secretariat of the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds, AEWA, Bonn, Germany), Logan Ende (UNEP , Washington DC, USA), Lisa Farroway (United Nations Development Programme, UNDP , New York, NY, USA), Francesco Gaetani (Latin American and Caribbean Regional Office, UNEP , Panama City, Panama), Susan Gardner (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya), Suren Gazaryan (Secretariat of the Agreement on the Conservation of Populations of European Bats, EUROBATS, Bonn, Germany), Thomas R. Gillespie (Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA), Margherita Gomarasca (Vtrinaires Sans Frontires, VSF, Brussels, Belgium), Danny Govender (South African National Parks, SANParks, Pretoria, South Africa), Jason Jabbour (North American Regional Office, UNEP , Washington, DC, USA), Luc Janssens de Bisthoven (Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium), Margaret Kinnaird (World Wide Fund For Nature International, WWF-INT, Gland, Switzerland), Richard Kock (Royal Veterinary College, RVC, University of London, London, UK), Fabian Leendertz (Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany), Jian Liu (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya), Brian Lutz (United Nations Development Programme, UNDP , New York, NY, USA), Riks Maas (Wageningen Bioveterinary Research, Wageningen University and Research Center, WUR, Lelystad, Netherlands), Kelly Malsch (World Conservation Monitoring Centre, UNEP- WCMC, Cambridge, UK), Stefano Mason (Agronomes et Vtrinaires sans Frontires, AVSF, Nogent-sur-Marne, France), Paige McClanahan (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya), Wander Meijer (GlobeScan, Hong Kong SAR, Peoples Republic of China), Stefano Messori (World Organisation for Animal Health, OIE, Paris, France), E.J. Milner-Gulland (Interdisciplinary Centre for Conservation Science and Oxford Martin Programme on Illegal Wildlife Trade, University of Oxford, and GCRF TRADE hub, Oxford, UK), Marco de Nardi (Safe Food Solutions, SAFOSO, Kniz, Switzerland), Maryam Niamir-Fuller (Formerly UNEP Global Environment Facility, UNEP-GEF, Virginia, USA), Scott Newman (Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, Rome, Italy), James ORourke (Chadron State College, Chadron, NE, USA), Midori Paxton (United Nations Development Programme, UNDP , New York, NY, USA), Kathryn Phillips (World Conservation Monitoring Centre, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, UK), Gert Polet (World Wide Fund For Nature Netherlands, WWF-NL, Zeist, Netherlands), Kristina Rodina (Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, Rome, Italy), Cristina Romanelli (World Acknowledgements Acknowledgementsii Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission Health Organisation, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland), Pinya Sarasas (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya), Tim Scott (United Nations Development Programme, UNDP , New York, NY, USA), Alexander Shestakov (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, CBD, Montreal, Canada), Roy Small (United Nations Development Programme, UNDP , New York, NY, USA), Emily Tagliaro (World Organisation for Animal Health, OIE, Paris, France), Edouard Timmermans (Vtrinaires Sans Frontires, VSF, Brussels, Belgium), Gregorio Torres (World Organisation for Animal Health, OIE, Paris, France), Gregorio Velasco Gil (Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, Rome, Italy), Kaavya Varma (United Nations Development Programme, UNDP , New York, NY, USA), Yolanda Vaz (Portuguese Office, Vtrinaires Sans Frontires, VSF, Lisbon, Portugal), Ana Vukoje (Asia-Pacific Regional Office, UNEP , Bangkok, Thailand), Chris Walzer (Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), New York, NY, USA), Christopher Whaley (Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel of the Global Environment Facility, GEF-STAP , Washington, DC, USA), Derek Wu (GlobeScan, Hong Kong SAR, Peoples Republic of China), Michelle Wyman (National Council for Science and the Environment, NCSE, Washington, DC, USA), Makiko Yashiro (Asia-Pacific Regional Office, UNEP , Bangkok, Thailand), Edoardo Zandri (UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya), Jinhua Zhang (Asia-Pacific Regional Office, UNEP , Bangkok, Thailand) and Max Zieren (Asia-Pacific Regional Office, UNEP , Bangkok, Thailand). Secretariat and project coordination Maarten Kappelle, Pinya Sarasas, Sofa Mndez Mora and Allan Lelei (all: UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya). Language editing Susan MacMillan (International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI, Kenya), Maarten Kappelle, Paige McClanahan and Pinya Sarasas (all: UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya). Graphics, design and layout Audrey Ringler, UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya. Communications, media and outreach Daniel Cooney, Atif Ikram Butt, Salome Mbeyu Chamanje, David Cole, Nicolien De Lange, Florian Fussstetter, Maria Galassi, Nancy Groves, Paige McClanahan, Neda Monshat, Pooja Munshi, Moses Osani, Andrew Raven, Lisa Rolls, Keishamaza Rukikaire, Sajni Shah, Rajinder Sian, Neha Sud and Richard Waiguchu (all: UNEP , Kenya); David Aronson, Annabel Slater and Michael Victor (all: ILRI, Kenya); and Matthew Davis and Michelle Geis Wallace (both: BURNESS, Bethesda, MD, USA). Thanks also to: Jimmy Smith (ILRI); Judith Akoth, Inger Andersen, Magda Biesiada, Alexander Caldas, Harsha Dave, Angeline Djampou, Sandor Frigyik, Tito Kimathi, Emily Kilonzi, Rachel Kosse, Fred Lerionka, Jian Liu, Lu Liu, Janet Macharia, Isabel Martnez, Nada Matta, Joyce Mavoungou, Abdelmenam Mohamed, Joyce Msuya, Pascil Muchesia, Jane Muriithi, Daniel Nthiwa, David Osborn, Rafael Peralta, Julia Rugo, Nandita Surendran, Ying Wang, Edoardo Zandri and Jing Zheng (all: UNEP , Nairobi, Kenya); and David Berman (independent). Partners The United Nations Environment Programme would like to express its gratitude to the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC, Pretoria, South Africa) and the Secretariat of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS, Bonn, Germany) for their extraordinary support to the development, launch and communication of this rapid scientific assessment report. Acknowledgementsiii Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission UNEP and ILRI are thankful for the support received from the following organisations: Acknowledgementsiv Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission1 Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission Contents Acknowledgements . i Contents . 1 Abbreviations and Acronyms . 3 Forewords . 4 Key Messages . 7 Introduction . 9 SECTION I: Overview of emerging infectious diseases including zoonoses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 What are emerging diseases and what are zoonoses? . 11 When do zoonoses become human disease outbreaks? . 13 Seven major anthropogenic drivers of zoonotic disease emergence . 15 Other factors playing a role in zoonotic disease emergence . 19 SECTION II: Coronaviruses in a One Health context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 What are coronaviruses? . 21 Common elements and origins of coronavirus pandemics . 25 SECTION III: Understanding the linkages between habitat loss, the trade and use of wildlife, and the emergence of novel zoonoses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 Habitat and biodiversity loss . 29 The roles of wildlife harvesting, farming and trade in pathogenic spread . 31 Zoonotic risks of wildlife use, trade and consumption . 34 SECTION IV: Managing and preventing zoonoses: How One Health can help . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 The One Health approach to controlling zoonoses . 39 Track record in managing zoonoses . 41 Lessons from managing previous coronavirus outbreaks . 42 SECTION V: Preventing future zoonotic pandemics: What more could be done? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 One Health aspects of zoonoses control and prevention . 45 Addressing the anthropogenic drivers of zoonoses emergence . 46 Strengthening the environment dimensions of the One Health approach . 47 Leveraging innovations and new technologies . 47 Responding to public and policy demand for the prevention and control of zoonoses . 48 Transforming and re-governing food systems . 48 Sustainable use of wild resources and Multilateral Environmental Agreements . 50 Interventions at the human-livestock interface . 51 Towards evidence-informed policy . 51 Ten key policy recommendations . 53 References . 55 Graphic References . 60 Glossary . 64 Contents2 Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission3 Preventing the next pandemic: Zoonotic diseases and how to break the chain of transmission Abbreviations and Acronyms Abbreviations and Acronyms AIDS acquired immune deficiency syndrome BSE bovine spongiform encephalopathy CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CGIAR A global partnership for a food secure future CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora CMS Convention on Migratory Species (Bonn Convention) COP Conference of the Parties COVID-19 coronavirus disease 2019 DNA deoxyribonucleic acid EID emerging infectious disease FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GDP gross domestic product HCoV-OC43 human coronavirus subtype OC43 HIV/AIDS human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome HPAI highly pathogenic avian influenza IBD inflammatory bowel disease ILRI International Livestock Research Institute MERS Middle East respiratory syndrome MERS-CoV Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus OIE World Organisation for Animal Health PED porcine epidemic diarrhoea RNA ribonuclei