未有之变——“碳中和”策略篇.pdf
1 / 26 CCS +2 / 26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 / 26 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 / 26 1 1.1 1 2000 2 2019 28.76% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 : : : -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 355 / 26 3 4 1.2 82.61% 5 6 2 0.0260 0.0403 0.0769 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 / / / -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 / 2017 2010-2017 44.37% 100.00% 17.96% 52.90% 12.53% 11.70% 7.75% 100.00% 2.81% 82.30% 2.56% 11.70% 1.96% 58.80% 1.80% 52.90% 1.46% 11.70% 1.10% 52.90% 94.30% 100.00% 2017 / 2010-2017 104.72 41.10% 72.17 17.60% 25.97 23.50% 19.78 5.80% 5.21 47.00% 3.39 0.00% 2.91 5.80% 2.76 5.80% 2.32 35.20% 1.93 5.80% 1.64 0.00% 1.50 0.00% 1.13 0.006 / 26 7 2.1 8 70% 9 CO2 排放量 年份 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 负排放技术 全社会碳排放量 因低碳能源减少的碳排放 量 因节能环保、产业结构升 级减少 的碳排 放量 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : : : : : : : : : : 57.70 18.90 8.10 15.30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : : : : 7 / 26 10 11 12 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 : : : : : : : : 20.16 3.77 0.99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 + 2030 2060 2030 1. 2005 65% 2. 25% 3. 2005 60 4. 12 2020.09.22 2020.12.12 2020.12.21 2020.12.31 2021.01 2021.01.26 2021 ( ) 2021 2021.02.25 2021.02.08 2021 180 2021.01.228 / 26 13 2.2 CCS 14 2070 CCS 2.3 12 25% 61% 28% 90% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CCS9 / 26 15 16 / / / / / 44.37% 17.96% 12.53% / ESG10 / 26 3 3.1 / / / 2001 2011 2016 17 2017 2016 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : :11 / 26 18 19 20 3.2 3.2.1 71.19% 16.37% 5.59% 1.92% : : : : : : : : -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 : : : : : : : : 11.00 16.00 52.00 54.00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2007-03 2007-08 2008-01 2008-06 2008-11 2009-04 2009-09 2010-02 2010-07 2010-12 2011-05 2011-10 2012-03 2012-08 2013-01 2013-06 2013-11 2014-04 2014-09 2015-02 2015-07 2015-12 2016-05 2016-10 2017-03 2017-08 2018-01 2018-06 2018-11 2019-04 2019-09 2020-02 2020-07 2020-12 : : : : : :12 / 26 CR3 21 22 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 / CR3 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% / -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% /13 / 26 3.2.2 24 25 73 30 / 26 2010 11 2013 2014 12 17 10 12 6 10 11 10 2011 2012 9 2017 12 2017 1 4 8 10 6 12 12 2015 2016 2017 2020 12 2019 2 2020 2020 3 2021 6 2021 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 8 / 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 (SZA): (SHEA): (BEA): (GDEA): ( ): (EUA) / /14 / 26 2021 1 1 2225 27 2815 / 26 29 1 ESG 2019 2020 Q3 TTM 0 20000000 40000000 60000000 80000000 100000000 120000000 140000000 160000000 180000000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2019 ESG16 / 26 ESG 2019 2020 Q3 TTM17 / 26 ESG 2019 2020 Q3 TTM 3.3 PLA18 / 26 30 2021 2 31 32 2020 33 PLA 4 4.1 CEMS -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2014-12 2015-02 2015-04 2015-06 2015-08 2015-10 2015-12 2016-02 2016-04 2016-06 2016-08 2016-10 2016-12 2017-02 2017-04 2017-06 2017-08 2017-10 2017-12 2018-02 2018-04 2018-06 2018-08 2018-10 2018-12 2019-02 2019-04 2019-06 2019-08 2019-10 2019-12 2020-02 2020-04 2020-06 2020-08 2020-10 2020-12 2021-02 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2007-01 2007-05 2007-09 2008-01 2008-05 2008-09 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 97% / 97% / 97% / -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 2020-03 2020-06 2020-09 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05 2015-09 2016-01 2016-05 2016-09 2017-01 2017-05 2017-09 2018-01 2018-05 2018-09 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 / /19 / 26 1 CEMS 34 CEMS 1 1990s CEMS CEMS 1990s 1997 CEMS 1998 CEMS 2007 CEMS 2020 2015 CMES 2001 197 1 1980 CEMS 1980s CEMS (2020-2035 )20 / 26 35 2019 36 A ROE ROE -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 100000 105000 110000 115000 120000 125000 130000 135000 140000 2012-02 2012-05 2012-08 2012-11 2013-02 2013-05 2013-08 2013-11 2014-02 2014-05 2014-08 2014-11 2015-02 2015-05 2015-08 2015-11 2016-02 2016-05 2016-08 2016-11 2017-02 2017-05 2017-08 2017-11 2018-02 2018-05 2018-08 2018-11 2019-02 2019-05 2019-08 2019-11 2020-02 2020-05 2020-08 2020-11 8 TTM ) PE TTM 2021 ROE 5 ROE - ROE 2016 ROE 603100.SH 2014-08-05 54.79 40.79 14.44 2 11.19% 0.45% 13.25% 13.01% -0.23% 300203.SZ 2011-04-15 71.18 36.60 -29.45 1 6.91% 16.42% -2.32% -18.74% 000551.SZ 1994-01-06 35.53 30.72 28.99 0 8.83% 8.02% 10.60% 2.57% 300007.SZ 2009-10-30 45.48 18.87 -91.49 1 10.16% 11.66% 8.06% -3.60% 300137.SZ 2010-11-05 44.80 11.31 22.46 1 9.10% 18.16% 12.10% 5.21% -6.89% 002658.SZ 2012-03-09 43.98 9.74 47.50 1 5.60% 47.40% 16.63% 7.48% -9.15% 300165.SZ 2011-01-25 22.91 8.58 131.04 0 11.48% 15.62% -6.96% -22.58% 300862.SZ 2020-08-24 50.11 7.98 40.55 0 5.74% 15.01% 37.69% 22.67% 688600.SH 2020-07-03 21.64 3.82 39.59 0 15.29% 19.83% 20.22% 0.38% 688665.SH 2021-02-09 38.85 2.72 56.60 1 17.70% -1.74% 31.91% -15.27% -47.1821 / 26 37 5 1972 CCS CCS 38 CCS CCS CCS / 2016-2019 300165.SZ 8.35% 18.55% 2.67 688665.SH 7.20% 21.13% 2.67 002658.SZ 10.26% 15.23% 3.00 688600.SH 13.42% 12.14% 3.00 300007.SZ 7.12% 18.48% 3.67 603100.SH 6.20% 16.58% 100.00% 4.00 300203.SZ 8.84% 11.97% 4.00 300137.SZ 5.40% 6.19% 6.00 000551.SZ 4.84% 5.97% 6.67 300862.SZ 4.33% 5.30% 7.33 30 96 63 35 21 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 CCS CCS CCS + + $ MWh-122 / 26 CCS 39 2019 300 6 + 18 12 8 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 /23 / 26 40 41 + ROE / / / / / / / / / / / / / -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2019 2021 3 12 ROE- 2021 ROE24 / 26 725 / 2626 / 26
