新定义下重疾产品研究深度报告：新定义引发产品策略切换差异化保障服务成关键.pdf
1 / 27 2021 03 29 2 - -2021.3.13 1 - -2021.2.23 12 -12 -2021.1.18 S0790520050001 S0790120100011 2021 10Y 3.2% 2021 2019 4107 2020 3.3 8173 24.5% 25.4% 60% 2007 2018 3000 2 180 1000 9 21 21 120 20 40 21 run 18 24 21 120 25 40 120 60 10% 2021 2 1 21 C6 21 C6 -15% 0% 15% 31% 46% 62% 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 3002 / 27 1 . 3 2 . 5 2.1 . 5 2.2 . 6 2.3 . 18 2.4 . 20 3 . 22 4 . 25 1 . 3 2 . 3 3 . 4 4 2016-2019 . 4 5 2018-2020 . 4 6 . 5 7 71.5% . 5 8 3.2% . 24 1 3 . 6 2 . 6 3 A . 8 4 21 . 9 5 . 10 6 . 11 7 . 13 8 . 14 9 . 15 10 . 16 11 . 18 12 20%. 19 13 . 20 14 . 20 15 . 22 16 21 . 23 17 . 243 / 27 1 2019 4100 2020 3.3 8173 24.5% 25.4% 10.9% 15pct 2019 4107 2019 13.3% 58.1% 2007 2018 3000 2 180 1000 60% 2017 2014 2016 1 2 Wind Wind 2019 12 34.9% 2019A 20.7% 2019A 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2011A2012A2013A2014A2015A2016A2017A2018A2019A2020A 4 / 27 3 2020 2019 4 2016-2019 5 2018-2020 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 5 / 27 6 7 71.5% 2020 11 2020 2007 2018 2 2.49 60 9 2 2.1 3 3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2019A 2020A 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 1006 / 27 25 28 +3 8 7 2021 2 1 1 3 25 28 - 0 3 - 30% TNM - - 2.2 2021 2 1 3 22 30 2 A/B 2020 21/ / 20 C6 C6/7 / 27 2021 2020 / 2.0 2.0 + 10 24 20% run 50 N-1 25 30 40 508 / 27 A + 3 6 20% 1 30% 50% 70 6 50% 30 50 3.4% 3 A A + 18-50 18-50 180 180 120 120 1/100% 1/100% / / - - - - / / - 40 - 6/20% / / 60 20 3/20% 1/50% / / - 6 70 50% Max 100% 25 10000 9650 25 8800 9100 30 11800 11400 30 10350 10650 40 17200 16200 40 14450 14400 50 29800 19 28050 19 50 24450 19 23200 19 30 / 96.6% 50 50 29 29 = * / *9 / 27 21 21 100 120 30% 50% 6 21 70 N N*10% N 6 run 18 24 21 30 50 7.3% 4 21 20 21 18-55 18-55 90 90 100 120 1/100% 1/100% / / - 20 - 1/50% / / 50 40 3/20% 6/20% / / - - - - / / 100% run 24 10% 2% 10% 70 N N*20% N 3 100% run 24 10% 2% 5% 10% 70 N N*10% N 6 25 10100 9750 25 9350 9150 30 12050 11550 30 11050 10750 40 17750 16650 40 15550 14800 50 31550 20 29100 19 50 26600 20 24650 19 30 / 92.7% 50 50 30 2910 / 27 + 105 120 5 60 2 5 20% 10 20 100% 6 10% N- 1 20 19 30 50 5.6% 5 + 0-65 18-65 180 180 105 120 1/100% 1/100% / / - - - - / / 55 60 3/20% 5/20% / / - 20 - 1/100% / / 61 100% 61 100% 100% 10% 25 12750 12700 25 11950 12100 30 15050 14950 30 14050 14100 40 21050 20950 40 19250 19000 50 30150 50750 9 50 26250 25600 30 / 94.4% 50 50 20 1911 / 27 7 C6 50% 60 1.2% 30 50 6 C5 C6 0-57 /60 18-50 /55 0-60 180 90 180 120 130 130 1/100% 1 3 /100% 1/100% / / 20 20 20 1/50% 1 /50% 2/50% / / 40 40 40 5/20% 1 /20% 5/20% 25% 30% / / 18 - 15 30 1 /100% - 60 1 /50% / / 110% 300% 4 100% Max( )- 61 50% 100% 85 100% 18 18 Max( 18 100% 61 50% 25 10150 16500 10250 25 8950 14600 9450 30 12200 19350 12350 30 10600 16950 11300 40 21700 20 29000 20150 40 15200 22600 16000 50 47900 10 110650 5 40400 15 50 29900 15 36500 15 25850 20 105.7% 101.212 / 27 30 / 50 50 50 30 20 30 = * / *13 / 27 30 40% 30 50 9.8% 7 0-65 0-70 90 90 120 120 1/100% 1/100% / / 10 - 1/50% - / / - - - - / / 50 - 3/25% - / / 18 18 Mac(100% 18 18 100% 25 13100 7900 25 12400 7100 30 15550 9350 30 14700 8400 40 22550 13300 40 20700 11700 50 51000 10 22900 20 50 33950 15 19650 20 30 / 90.2% 50 50 20 30 = * / *14 / 27 2021 2021 2021 2020 2021 100% 6 2021 2021 2020 14.5% 43.0% 30 50 8 2020 2021 2021 0-65 0-65 18-65 180 180 180 120 120 120 1/100% 1/100% 1 6 1 /100% / / - 20 20 - 2/50% 2/50% / / 50 40 40 3/20%-30%-50% 3/30% 3/30% / / - - 6 - - 1/20% 60 / / 18 18 100% 18 18 100% Max 100% Max 100% 25 9850 10200 12750 25 9100 9650 11750 30 10700 12250 15300 30 11800 11500 14050 40 16950 18050 23450 40 14650 15950 20100 50 28200 19 30700 19 41600 19 50 23550 19 25100 19 32350 19 30 / 114.5% 143.0% 50 50 50 29 29 2915 / 27 2020 9 2020 + 0-70 0-60 70 180 180 120 120 1/100% 1/100% / / - - - - / / 60 - 5/30% - / / 5 - 1/100% - / / 20% 18 18 100% 100% 5 25 10150 15150 25 9600 14350 30 12150 18350 30 11450 17750 40 18150 31700 15 40 16450 31300 15 50 34800 15 33750 15 80 50 30900 15 33000 15 80 30 / 100.7% 50 50 30 20 = * / *16 / 27 3 25 1 2% 25 50% 10 30 50 16.4% 5 A B C 20% 10% 40% 20% 60% 30% + B 30 50 1.3% 10 2019 18-55 18-55 18-55 90 /180 90 90 100 120 120 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% / / - - 25 - - 5/20% 40% 60% A B C / / 60 - 40 6 1 /20% 1 2 -30% 3 4 -50% 5 6 - 5/10% 20% 30% A B C / / - - - - - - / / 100% 60 100% 100% 50% 1 /100% 50% 1 /100% 25 11650 8050 9450 25 10550 7350 9000 30 13500 9400 11100 30 12200 8450 10300 40 18500 13650 1600017 / 27 40 16450 11800 14100 50 24050 20 28100 20 50 19800 20 23500 20 30 / 83.6% 98.7% 50 50 50 25 30 30 + B = * / *18 / 27 2.3 20% 2.0 2.0 30 50 18.7% 11 2.0 2.0 2.0 0-50 0-50 0-50 180 90 90 100 100 100 1/60 160% 60 100% 1/60 160% 60 100% 1/60 160% 60 100% / / 25 - 20 2/60% - 2/60% / / 48 - 35 3/40%-45%-50% - 3/30% / / 12 20 20 1/15% 1/15% 1/15% / / 120% - 120% 25 5200 4680 6195 25 5190 4425 6265 30 6175 5480 7330 30 6060 5115 7310 40 11100 20 9675 20 12900 20 40 10405 20 8750 20 12330 20 50 22355 10 21130 10 27880 10 50 20035 10 18025 10 24865 10 30 / 88.7% 118.7% 50 50 50 30 30 30 + = * / *19 / 27 18 123 25 30% 30 50 19.1% 12 20% 0-55 0-65 70/80/ 90 180 105 123 1/61 170% 61 100% 1/61 170% 61 100% / / 20 25 2/60% 2/60% / / 50 50 3/45% 3/30% / / - - - - / / 61 70% 1 120% 100% 1 120% 100% 25 4715 5655 25 4510 5295 30 5620 6695 30 5325 6210 40 9955 20 11550 20 40 9155 20 10175 20 50 15945 15 24030 10 50 14080 15 19580 10 30 / 119.1% 50 50 30 30 = * / *20 / 27 2.4 13 A 20 21 C5 C6 2020 2021 2019 2.0 2.0 14 A 21 C6 2021 18-50 18-55 18-65 0-60 0-70 0-65 18-55 180 90 180 180 90 180 90 120 120 120 130 120 120 120 / / 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% - 20 - 20 - 20 25 / / - 1/50% - 2/50% - 2/50% 5/20% 40% 6021 / 27 A B C 40 40 60 40 - 40 40 / / 6/20% 6/20% 5/20% 5/20% 25% 30% - 3/30% 5/10% 20% 30% A B C 20 - 20 15 - - - / / 1/50% - 1/100% 60 1 /50% - - - 6 70 50% Max 100% 100% run 24 10% 2% 5% 10% 70 N N*10% N 6 100% 10% 18 18 Max( 18 100% 61 50% 18 18 100% 18 18 100% 50% 1 /100% 25 9650 9750 12700 10250 7900 10200 9450 25 9100 9150 12100 9450 7100 9650 9000 30 11400 11550 14950 12350 9350 12250 11100 30 10650 10750 14100 11300 8400 11500 10300 40 16200 16650 20950 20150 13300 18050 16000 40 14400 14800 19000 16000 11700 15950 14100 50 28050 19 29100 19 50750 9 40400 15 22900 20 30700 19 28100 20 50 23200 19 24650 19 25600 25850 20 19650 20 25100 19 23500 20 30 / 96.6% 92.7% 94.4% 101.2% 90.2% 114.5% 98.7% 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 29 29 19 30 30 29 3022 / 27 + B 15 A 21 C6 2021 120 120 120 130 120 120 120 / / 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% - 20 - 20 - 20 25 / / - 1/50% - 2/50% - 2/50% 5/20% 40% 60% A B C 40 40 60 40 - 40 40 / / 6/20% 6/20% 5/20% 5/20% 25% 30% - 3/30% 5/10% 20% 30% A B C 20 - 20 15 - - - / / 1/50% - 1/100% 60 1 /50% - - - 30 330,600 334,950 284,050 370,500 280,500 355,250 333,000 30 308,850 311,750 267,900 339,000 252,000 333,500 309,000 30 50 14 3 21 120 20 40 70 21 run 18 24 21 180 25 40 10023 / 27 50% 120 60 10% 16 21 21 18-55 18-55 18-65 90 90 180 120 120 120 1/100% 1/100% 1/100% / / 20 25 - 1/50% 5/20% 40% 60% A B C - / / 40 40 60 6/20% 5/10% 20% 30% A B C 5/20% / / - - 20 - - 1/100% / / 100% run 24 10% 2% 5% 10% 70 N N*10% N 6 50% 1 /100% 100% 10% 25 9,750 9450 12,700 25 9,150 9000 12,100 30 11,550 11100 14,950 30 10,750 10300 14,100 40 16,650 16000 20,950 40 14,800 14100 19,000 50 29,100 19 28100 20 50,750 9 50 24,650 19 23500 20 25,600 30 334,950 333,000 284,050 30 311,750 309,000 267,90024 / 27 50 50 50 29 30 19 + B 2021 10Y 3.2% 2021 8 3.2% Wind 17 EVPS PEV BVPS PB 2021/3/26 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2019A 2020E 1299.HK 80.57 33.15 34.89 36.73 2.43 2.31 2.19 33.19 34.09 2.43 2.36 601318.SH 80.01 65.67 72.65 82.63 1.22 1.10 0.97 36.83 41.71 2.17 1.92 601601.SH 38.51 43.70 47.41 55.48 0.88 0.81 0.69 19.69 23.39 1.96 1.65 601336.SH 49.85 65.73 79.02 95.01 0.76 0.63 0.52 27.07 32.59 1.84 1.53 Wind Wind 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 10 75025 / 27 426 / 27 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50027 / 27 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
