宏观经济专题：地方债放量对流动性环境的影响.pdf
1 / 9 2021 03 14 - -2021.3.11 - -2021.3.8 -10Y 2% -2021.3.7 S0790520060002 S0790520070004 S0790120080081 2016 MLF 2018 2019 2017 2020 2016 2017 2020 3 1 2020 2016 2017 + + 50% + + 20212 / 9 1 . 3 2 . 7 3 . 7 1 2021 2020 . 3 2 3 . 3 3 MLF . 3 4 . 4 5 2017 2020 . 4 6 2017 . 4 7 2020 5 . 4 8 2020 . 5 9 2021 3 4 . 5 10 . 5 11 2016 . 6 12 . 6 13 . 6 14 . 7 15 . 7 1 . 3 2 . 5 3 . 63 / 9 1 2021 4.67 2020 2600 2020 1 2021 2020 2 3 Wind Wind 2016 MLF 2018 2019 2017 2020 3 MLF 1 Wind 0 1 2 3 4 5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ( ) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( ) 2019 2017 2018 2020 2021 -7,000 -4,000 -1,000 2,000 5,000 8,000 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2016-01 2016-07 2017-01 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 (%) ( ) MLF ( 1) 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 (%) ( 24 / 9 2016 2017 2020 3 4 5 2017 2020 Wind Wind 6 2017 7 2020 5 Wind Wind 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2016-01 2016-07 2017-01 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 (%) ( ) R001( ) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -8,000 -5,000 -2,000 1,000 4,000 7,000 10,000 2015-02 2015-08 2016-02 2016-08 2017-02 2017-08 2018-02 2018-08 2019-02 2019-08 2020-02 2020-08 2021-02 (%) ( ) 3 ( ) 5 8 11 14 17 20 -10 10 30 50 70 90 2014-01 2014-07 2015-01 2015-07 2016-01 2016-07 2017-01 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 (%) (%) ( ) 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 2015-02 2015-07 2015-12 2016-05 2016-10 2017-03 2017-08 2018-01 2018-06 2018-11 2019-04 2019-09 2020-02 2020-07 2020-12 ( )5 / 9 8 2020 2 Wind 9 2021 3 4 10 Wind Wind 1 2020 2016 2017 -8 0 8 16 24 32 40 2011-03 2011-12 2012-09 2013-06 2014-03 2014-12 2015-09 2016-06 2017-03 2017-12 2018-09 2019-06 2020-03 2020-12 (%) 70 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ( ) 2020 2021 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M (6M,1Y (1Y,3Y (3Y,5Y ( 5 Y ,6 / 9 3 11 2016 Wind 50% 12 13 Wind Wind + + 2021 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2016-05 2016-08 2016-11 2017-02 2017-05 2017-08 2017-11 2018-02 2018-05 2018-08 2018-11 2019-02 2019-05 2019-08 2019-11 2020-02 2020-05 (%) MLF ( (%) 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.0 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20-12-28 21-01-04 21-01-08 21-01-14 21-01-20 21-01-26 21-02-01 21-02-05 21-02-18 21-02-23 21-03-01 21-03-05 21-03-11 (%) (%) ( ) R001( ) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20197 / 9 14 15 Wind Wind 2 1 2 2016 2017 3 + + 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (%) (%) PPI同比 10 年 国 债收益 率( 右轴) 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2006-03 2006-06 2006-09 2006-12 2007-03 2007-06 2007-09 2007-12 2008-03 2008-06 2008-09 2008-12 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2013-12 2014-03 2014-06 2014-09 2014-12 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 2017-06 2017-09 2017-12 2018-03 2018-06 2018-09 2018-12 2019-03 2019-06 2019-09 2019-12 (%) (%) 上证综指 盈利TTM 变化( 左二轴) 估值变化( 左二轴) 社融增速( 老口径, 右一轴) 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 10 15 20 25 30 35 (PE TTM) 信贷余额同比( 左一轴) 期末估值( 右二轴8 / 9 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 5009 / 9 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065
