基金代销行业深度报告:基金代销启航独立三方崛起.pdf
1 / 49 2021 01 26 2020 4 - -2021.1.25 2020 4 - -2021.1.24 - -2021.1.24 S0790520050001 S0790120110033 2020 3.2 +123% 2020 11 10.99 +56% 2021 1 22 74 3590 +436% 1 2017-2019 10.9/8.5 20.2 APP -15% 0% 15% 31% 46% 62% 2020-02 2020-06 2020-10 3002 / 49 1 . 6 1.1 . 6 1.2 . 8 1.3 . 12 2 . 13 2.1 . 13 2.2 . 16 2.3 . 24 2.4 . 29 3 . 32 3.1 . 32 3.2 . 38 3.2.1 . 38 3.2.2 . 40 3.2.3 . 43 4 . 44 5 . 47 1 . 6 2 . 6 3 . 6 4 . 6 5 2021 1 + 4600 . 7 6 . 7 7 . 7 8 . 8 9 + . 8 10 . 9 11 . 9 12 2019 . 9 13 . 9 14 A . 10 15 2020 300 . 11 16 2017-2020 300 30% . 11 17 2017 . 11 18 2018 . 11 19 2019 . 12 20 . 12 21 . 12 22 . 133 / 49 23 . 13 24 . 13 25 2019 . 14 26 . 15 27 . 15 28 . 15 29 . 15 30 . 16 31 . 16 32 . 16 33 . 16 34 2020 9 . 18 35 2020 9 . 19 36 2020 9 . 19 37 APP 24-30 41 . 20 38 . 20 39 . 20 40 2020 10-30 . 20 41 . 21 42 . 21 43 35.6% . 21 44 2020H1 9.1 AUM2743 . 22 45 . 24 46 . 24 47 . 25 48 AUM 30% . 25 49 . 25 50 . 26 51 . 28 52 2019 . 29 53 2020 25-34 . 29 54 . 29 55 . 30 56 4 . 30 57 . 32 58 . 32 59 2020 9 . 33 60 2020 9 . 33 61 2020 9 . 33 62 2020 9 . 33 63 2020 . 35 64 35-44 . 36 65 . 36 66 5000 . 36 67 . 364 / 49 68 21-30 . 37 69 . 37 70 . 37 71 . 37 72 . 38 73 . 39 74 2018 . 39 75 2018 . 39 76 2018 . 40 77 . 40 78 20% . 40 79 80 . 41 80 30-40 . 41 81 85 95 . 41 82 70 80 . 42 83 90 95 . 42 84 80 90 95 . 42 85 80 . 43 86 . 44 87 2020Q3 . 44 88 . 46 89 . 46 90 . 46 1 . 10 2 . 14 3 . 14 4 3 36% . 15 5 5 20% . 16 6 . 17 7 . 17 8 60% . 18 9 . 19 10 2019 1.49 . 20 11 5 . 21 12 . 22 13 . 23 14 . 24 15 2020H1 . 26 16 . 27 17 . 28 18 . 31 19 5 APP . 34 20 5 . 35 21 . 375 / 49 22 . 45 23 . 45 24 . 476 / 49 1 1.1 2017 2020 3.2 +123% 2020 11 10.99 +56% 1 2 Wind 2019 2018 40% 2020 11 54% 14 2018 42% 23% 3 4 1 Wind 1 22 + 74 3590 +436% 1 4600 2020Q4 17687 / 49 5 2021 1 + 4600 Wind 2010 6% 2020 47% 2016-2020 9 2010-2020 2020 44% 8 2020 39% 6 7 Wind Wind Wind 2017-2020 YOY8 / 49 8 9 + Wind Wind 1.2 2019 10 10 20 30 2/3 2020 7 30 20 75 45 2018 2018-2020H1 1.6/3.0 3.4/3.09 / 49 10 11 Wind Wind 2019 59% 12 2019 13 2019 Wind Wind 2019 3 24% 59% 9% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 10010 / 49 1 2019/3/1 2019/6/21 2019/8/9 130% 2019/10/1 2019/10/18 “ ” “ ” 2020/2/14 2020/6/12 2020/8/1 2020/12/31 A IPO A 2020 396 14 A Wind 2012-2020 6 300 2020 300 17 2018 300 2020 27% 300 300 300 3011 / 49 15 2020 300 16 2017-2020 300 30% Wind Wind 2017 2019 2019 0%-20% 20% 28%/30% 47% 20%-50% 50% 54%/43% 2018 17 2017 18 2018 Wind Wind12 / 49 19 2019 1.3 2021 3% 20 21 Wind Wind 2017-2019 2018 + 10% 2019 +41% 6.8% 2020H1 10.9% 8%-10% 2025 32 2025 2013 / 49 22 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 4 . 9 5 . 4 7 . 7 9 . 3 1 1 . 3 1 4 . 4 2 1 8 . 0 5 2 2 . 0 6 2 6 . 6 5 3 1 . 5 9 6 . 8 % 7 . 3 % 9 . 3 % 1 0 . 9 % 1 2 . 5 % 1 4 . 5 % 1 6 . 5 % 1 8 . 5 % 2 0 . 5 % 2 2 . 5 % - 0 . 9 % 0 . 4 % 2 . 0 % 1 . 6 % 3 . 2 % 2 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 2 . 0 % YOY 1 1 % 41% 22% 48% 28% 25% 22% 21% 19% 2 . 2 3 1 . 6 8 3 . 6 5 3 . 1 2 3 . 6 3 4 . 0 1 4 . 5 9 4 . 9 4 7 1 . 0 7 4 . 4 8 2 . 2 8 5 . 5 9 0 . 4 7 9 9 . 5 1 1 0 9 . 4 6 1 1 9 . 3 2 1 3 0 . 0 5 1 4 0 . 4 6 YOY 1 2 . 7 % 4 . 7 % 1 0 . 6 % 3 . 9 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 9 . 0 % 9 . 0 % 8 . 0 % + 1 4 2 . 6 3 1 5 5 . 6 6 1 7 1 . 8 7 1 7 6 . 7 2 1 8 2 . 0 3 1 9 6 . 5 9 2 1 0 . 3 5 2 2 0 . 8 7 2 3 1 . 9 1 2 4 3 . 5 1 YOY 1 2 . 0 % 9 . 1 % 1 0 . 4 % 2 . 8 % 5 . 9 % 8 . 0 % 7 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 3 . 4 % 3 . 5 % 4 . 5 % 5 . 3 % 6 . 2 % 7 . 3 % 8 . 6 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 1 . 5 % 1 3 . 0 % - 0 . 4 % 0 . 1 % 1 . 0 % 0 . 8 % 1 . 8 % 1 . 1 % 1 . 2 % 1 . 4 % 1 . 5 % 1 . 5 % Wind 28% 24% 2010 23% 2019 32% 23 24 2 2.114 / 49 3 21.5 2015-2019 9 2 2016 2017 2018 2019 8.2% 12.8% 21.6% 24.6% 7.8% 7.2% 8.3% 9.5% 84.0% 75.9% 58.9% 40.8% 0.0% 3.9% 9.6% 21.5% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 3.6% 3 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 25.2% 23.4% 24.4% 24.1% 23.6% 10.0% 8.2% 6.1% 6.4% 7.6% 61.9% 65.6% 65.4% 61.3% 57.3% 2.1% 2.2% 3.8% 7.8% 11.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 2019 70.2% 39.6% 48.6% 32.3% 2019 43.9% 2019 53.1% 2015-2019 8.0/7.1 2019 83%/59% 25 201915 / 49 26 27 28 29 C 2016-2019 / 36.3/20.2 4 3 36% 2016 2017 2018 2019 51.3% 53.3% 52.7% 41.6% 48.8% 30.0% 20.2% 16.0% 0.0% 16.3% 23.4% 36.3% 0.0% 0.4% 3.7% 6.116 / 49 5 5 20% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 66.2% 68.2% 70.5% 62.3% 55.2% 26.3% 23.9% 17.5% 16.6% 17.8% 5.6% 6.5% 11.1% 20.0% 25.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 2018 2019 74%/56% 2019 18%/16% 0.9% 19%/33% 30 31 32 33 2.217 / 49 6 200003 A 0.00% 0.33% 0.10% 0.25% 0.00% 0.33% 0.10% 0.25% 0.00% 0.33% 0.10% 0.25% 003834 1.50% 1.50% 0.25% 0.00% 0.15% 1.50% 0.25% 0.00% 0.15% 1.50% 0.25% 0.00% 002959 1.20% 1.50% 0.25% 0.00% 0.12% 1.50% 0.25% 0.00% 0.12% 1.50% 0.25% 0.00% 050011 A/B 0.80% 0.70% 0.20% 0.00% 0.08% 0.70% 0.20% 0.00% 0.08% 0.70% 0.20% 0.00% APP 2021 1 19 45 62% 14 72% 40% 7 0.80% 0.08% 0.08% 1 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% 0.60% 0.06% 0.60% APP18 / 49 8 60% 62% 72% 0% 40% 2020 10 5000-9000 1400 2020 9 470 34 2020 9 Questmobile APP APP APP APP 2020 9 21 /12 APP APP 2020 9 2.8 /3.58 APP19 / 49 35 2020 9 36 2020 9 Questmobile Questmobile 2020H1 1846 175 35378 2573 334 2017 47% 9 0 175 1846 334 2573 35387 Wind APP 24-30 41 29.2%/25.4% 37% 21% 40.5% 28.3% 2020 10-30 29% 2019 1.4920 / 49 37 APP 24-30 41 38 39 40 2020 10-30 10 2019 1.49 10 3280 2197.98 57% 1.49 10-50 9467 1102.65 29% 8.59 50-100 6893 288.24 7% 23.91 100-300 10202 193 5% 52.86 300-1000 8824 57.7 1% 152.93 1000 23189 17.38 0% 1,334.23 51% 27% 21-30 53% 46% 1021 / 49 41 42 2019-2020 35.6% 2017 2020H1 5 2020H1 9.1 2743 43 35.6% 2019-2020 11 5 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 61,643 68,021 74,940 82,632 10,663 12,541 14,400 15,100 57,810 54,239 52,042 54,72322 / 49 44 2020H1 9.1 AUM2743 12 2020 Q3 2/8 / 2018 6000 1500 500023 / 49 13 5243 5751 3286 3249 133 148 108 95 5600 1 2 3 10 2.5%- 11% 1 2 3 5 10 1 2 10%/30%/60% + Wind 2021 1 25 2016 2020H1 2020H124 / 49 2016-2019 45 46 Wind 14 2.3 2019 40 40 12.2% AUM 3025 / 49 47 48 AUM 30% 2015-2019 20% 5% 4 3 1 /4 49 2019 2018 17 APP APP26 / 49 50 2020H1 15 2020H1 2020H1 YOY 0.72 560.54% 0.09 307.27% 0.11 299.71% 0.03 270.28% 1.16 192.84% 2.41 191.35% 1.14 184.66% 0.67 171.52% 0.18 167.73% 1.78 149.94% 1.89 146.30% 1.57 140.11% 1.85 139.01% 6.99 122.93% 0.05 117.24% 1.49 99.02% 0.69 95.82% 1.30 93.18% 0.63 79.42% 0.41 76.9127 / 49 2020 3 7 4 2021 1 6 AUM 60 10 16 5 “ ” 5 4 4 10 10 0%-90% 2.5%- 11% 5 10% 30% 60% 1000 1000 1000 1000 800 100 1000 2 5000 0.6%- 0.9%/ 0.3%-1.5%/ 0.2%-1%/ 0.8%-1.2%/ 0.5%/ 1 2021 1 6 AUM 60 2020 12 2 2020 12 2.7 AUM8 - 100 20 AUM22 - 2016 2020 20 140 Mob 202028 / 49 17 74.78% 73.68% 25.22% 26.32% 52.49% 50.86% 47.51% 49.14% 80.89% 78.19% 19.11% 21.81% 2017 8 -2018 8 2018 8 -2019 7 51 Mob 2019 66% Mob 2020 25-34 44% 2014 35% 20% 1829 / 49 52 2019 53 2020 25-34 Mob 54 2.4 2004 2019 13 18% 2019 4730 / 49 55 ICI 2007-2019 2007 36% 2019 33% 4 11% 17% 2 56 4 ICI 2008 2008-2019 16 12%/1431 / 49 18 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2017 2018 2019 2008-2019 59% 36% 36% 35% 33% 49% 47% 50% 49% 50% 14% ) 32% 14% 13% 13% 11% 28% 27% 26% 27% 26% 12% 29% 12% 12% 11% 13% 26% 22% 26% 24% 28% 16% 19% 7% 8% 7% 6% 18% 17% 18% 19% 21% 14% 11% 2% 2% 3% 2% 10% 10% 11% 10% 9% 7% 8% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 36% 13% 10% 13% 10% 31% 34% 36% 33% 32% 19% 24% 8% 6% 8% 5% 19% 19% 20% 19% 19% 11% 20% 5% 4% 5% 5% 18% 24% 24% 22% 21% 16% ICI 70 2010 + 80 50% 60% 2019 30% 3832 / 49 57 58 Wind 2019 21% 3 3.133 / 49 59 2020 9 60 2020 9 Questmobile Questmobile 61 2020 9 62 2020 9 Questmobile Questmobile 2021 1 25 5243/5751/5151 QDII FOF ETF + + 2021 1 25 174834 / 49 + APP APP 19 5 APP 5243 5751 4614 5151 1748 133 148 109 125 75 5600 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 “ ” 10 2.5%-11% 3 5 3 3 + Wind APP 2021 1 2535 / 49 5 5 20 5 5 10 0%-90% 2.5%-11% 5 3%-6% 2 1 6%-8% 2 8%+ 2 20%+ 2 800 100 1000 500 200 1000 1000 0.5%/ 0.5%/ APP Mob 2020 TOP5 63 2020 Mob36 / 49 Mob 35-44 5000 82% 54% 64 35-44 65 Mob Mob 66 5000 67 Mob Mob 2017 8 2019 7 3 30 36% 1837 / 49 68 21-30 69 70 71 APP 21 APP APP APP APP APP 30 80 2019 2 - -38 / 49 - “ ” 5 “ ” APP 3.2 3.2.1 2019 2018 17 2020 11 1444 72 APP 2004-2018 0.27% 1.339 / 49 73 2018 2017 7.0/4.0 7.5 2018 80.5% 2017 6 74 2018 75 201840 / 49 76 2018 77 20% 2015-2020 20% 20% 78 20% Questmobile 3.2.2 80 2019 70 80 2018 80 1.85 90 95 80 / 2012-2015 30-40 2015 30- CAGR 2041 / 49 40 31% 85 44% 95 85 95 79 80 80 30-40 2019 81 85 95 Mob 90 95 80 95 90 8042 / 49 82 70 80 83 90 95 2019 1 / / / / / / / 2 2019 84 80 90 95 201943 / 49 85 80 2019 80 80 90 95 80 90 90 3.2.3 6 2017 22% 2018 16% 1-3 /3- 5 /5 2016-2020Q3 3.1% 5.8% 2019-2020Q3 6.0% 5.8% 300044 / 49 86 87 2020Q3 Wind 4 2021 APP45 / 49 22 2019 2020H1 + + 1.1% 24.3% 25.4% 1.1% 45.2% 46.3% 1.5% 24.9% 26.5% 2.6% 29.4% 32.0% 0.8% 21.1% 21.9% 0.6% 30.9% 31.6% 11.6% 11.6% 29.3% 29.3% 5.7% 25.5% 31.2% 5.5% 22.4% 27.8% 2.2% 23.5% 25.7% 3.8% 21.1% 24.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7% 15.7% 1.3% 13.8% 15.1% 1.7% 12.8% 14.5% 0.8% 12.3% 13.1% 0.2% 14.3% 14.5% 3.2% 8.5% 11.7% 6.1% 7.6% 13.7% 1.2% 11.1% 12.3% 2.3% 10.3% 12.6% 0.9% 7.1% 8.0% 2.4% 6.7% 9.0% 3.4% 6.1% 9.5% 3.3% 5.2% 8.5% 1.4% 1.4% 2.9% 3.7% 3.7% 7.4% 2.2% 5.6% 7.7% 0.4% 6.4% 6.9% Wind 1 2019 2020H1 2019 2020H1 2 = *50%( )/ 3 = * / 23 2020H1 2019 2018 45% 24% 77% 31% 21% 51% 29% 25% 32% 22% 26% 330% 21% 24% 40% 14% 12% 20% 13% 14% 13% 10% 11% 19% 6% 6% 7% 5% 6% 8% 5% 11% 44% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 12% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 1% Wind 2017-201946 / 49 ROE 88 Wind 2020 3.39% 48bp 2016 0.45% 2020Q3 2.14% 89 90 Wind Wind 2019 2020H1 1.69/1.49 +21%/+99% 12.1%/14.6% 2020 100047 / 49 9.15% 2020H1 22% 2020H1 1.89 +146% 49%/45% 2019 2020H1 11%/10% 2021 24 EPS P/E 2021/01/26 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 300059.SZ 36.62 0.27 0.55 0.79 134.30 66.55 601377.SH 8.63 0.26 0.51 0.57 33.19 16.79 600999.SH 25.35 0.97 1.07 1.22 26.13 23.77 Wind EPS Wind 548 / 49 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50049 / 49 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065