1 / 21 2021 01 13 - -2021.1.12 - -2021.1.12 -2021 -2021.1.11 S0790520060002 S0790520070004 S0790120080081 2005 2016 8.3 2016 17.3% 2013 50-55% 2005 12.2% 2016 25.2% 2013 2016 2014 2016 2010 2011 1 2017 23 2010 2.8 2017 30 2017 2017 2017 2017 20182 / 21 1 . 4 1.1 . 4 1.2 . 6 2 . 8 2.1 . 8 2.2 . 11 3 . 13 3.1 . 13 3.2 . 16 4 . 18 5 . 19 1 . 4 2 . 4 3 2012 . 5 4 2013 . 5 5 2014 . 5 6 2014 . 5 7 2012-2016 . 6 8 . 6 9 . 6 10 2015 . 6 11 . 7 12 . 7 13 2015 . 7 14 85% . 7 15 . 8 16 . 8 17 . 8 18 . 9 19 2013 . 9 20 2014-2016 11 . 9 21 60% . 10 22 . 10 23 40% . 10 24 . 10 25 2014-2016 . 11 26 2014-2015 . 11 27 . 12 28 2016 . 12 29 ABS . 133 / 21 30 ABS 6 . 13 31 2017 14 . 13 32 2019 . 13 33 . 14 34 . 14 35 2017 . 14 36 6 . 14 37 . 15 38 2017 . 15 39 2016 . 15 40 2016 . 15 41 . 16 42 . 16 43 2010 . 16 44 . 16 45 . 17 46 2018 . 18 47 2018 . 18 1 . 11 2 ( ,%) . 17 3 . 174 / 21 1 1.1 2005 2005 77.5% 2017 62.7% 8.3 2016 17.3% 2012 2015 8.3% 9.3% 2013 1 1 2 Wind Wind 2005 2012 2013 2014 MLF 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (5 / 21 3 2012 4 2013 Wind Wind 5 2014 6 2014 Wind Wind 2012 2016 50% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 0 2 4 6 8 10 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) ( ) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 -8,000 -5,200 -2,400 400 3,200 6,000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014 2016 2017 2019 2020 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 7 14 21 28 35 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) ( ) (6 / 21 7 2012-2016 8 Wind Wind 1.2 50-55% 2005 12.2% 2016 25.2% 2013 2016 2015 9 2 10 2015 Wind Wind 2 -50% -10% 30% 70% 110% 150% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -10 20 50 80 110 2014-03 2014-11 2015-07 2016-03 2016-11 2017-07 2018-03 2018-11 2019-07 2020-03 2020-11 (BP) 3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 2 4 6 8 -5 -2 1 4 7 10 13 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) ( ) (7 / 21 2013 2016 2015 11 12 Wind 13 2015 14 85% Wind Wind 2011 0.1 2018 18.5 4.6 2021 11 10 10 2.5 -8% 8% 24% 40% 56% 72% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1 3 5 7 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2011-12 2012-06 2012-12 2013-06 2013-12 2014-06 2014-12 2015-06 2015-12 2016-06 2016-12 2017-06 2017-12 2018-06 ( ) ( ) 14 ( ) 0 8 16 24 32 40 0 10 20 30 40 50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) ( ) ( ) 6% 85% 2% 3% ( 2020 11 )8 / 21 15 16 Wind Wind 17 2 2.1 2010 2014 2016 2010 2011 1 2017 22 2010 2.8 2017 30 2014 2016 11 0 5 10 15 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) 0 40 80 120 160 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 7 14 21 28 35 ( ) 2020 2020 /2010 (9 / 21 18 3 Wind 19 2013 20 2014-2016 11 2016 63% 57% 61% 17% 3 2018 4 9 14 19 24 29 34 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) ( 万亿元) ( 万亿元) 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ( ) 14 0 2 4 6 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 2014 2015 2016 ( ) ( ) (10 / 21 21 60% 22 23 40% 24 63% 10% 7% 6% 5% 9% (2016 ) 0.0 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 ABS ( ) (2016 ) 44% 17% 17% 13% 9% (2016 ) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016H 2016 2017H 2017 2018 2019H 201911 / 21 25 2014-2016 26 2014-2015 Wind Wind 2.2 2017 2014 127 4 2017 2018 1 2011 1 2011 25% 2013 3 35% 4% 2014 4 ( ) 2017 3 2017 3 2017 4 2017 12 2018 1 2018 4 90 4 2014 4 2014127 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 2014-06 2015-03 2015-06 2015-09 2015-12 2016-03 2016-06 2016-12 2017-06 2017-12 (%) ( ) ( ) -12,000 -8,000 -4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ( )12 / 21 2018 5 2018 7 2018 9 10% 35% 4% 2018 9 35% 4% 10% 2018 12 35% 2011 2017 2018 5.4 80% 27 28 2016 Wind Wind ABS ABS 2016 1.3% 2020 10 30% -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) 0 6 12 18 24 2015 2016 2017 201813 / 21 29 ABS 30 ABS 6 Wind Wind 31 2017 14 32 2019 Wind Wind 3 3.1 2005 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2017-04 2017-08 2017-12 2018-04 2018-08 2018-12 2019-04 2019-08 2019-12 2020-04 2020-08 2020-12 ( ) ABS ABS + 58.4% 35.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.3% ABS ( 2020 11 ) 0 7 14 21 28 35 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10 (%) ( ) ( ) 10 13 16 19 22 25 0 70 140 210 280 350 2019-06 2019-07 2019-08 2019-09 2019-10 2019-11 2019-12 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 ( ) ( ) (14 / 21 33 34 Wind 35 2017 36 6 Wind Wind 2013 70 0 2016 MPA -40% -10% 20% 50% 80% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2011-03 2011-10 2012-05 2012-12 2013-07 2014-02 2014-09 2015-04 2015-11 2016-06 2017-01 2017-08 2018-03 2018-10 2019-05 2019-12 ( ) 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 60% 2016-07 2016-11 2017-03 2017-07 2017-11 2018-03 2018-07 2018-11 2019-03 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 58% 23% 12% 4% 3% (2020 6 ) +15 / 21 37 38 2017 Wind Wind 39 2016 40 2016 Wind Wind 2014 2016 2017 2019 2020 -20 -1 18 37 56 75 -10 5 20 35 50 65 80 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) (%) 银行对非 银债权 同比 银 行 对银行 负债同 比( 右轴) -0.8 0.1 1.0 1.9 2.8 3.7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) 9 11 13 15 17 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) ( ) ( ) 1.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 2015-01 2015-06 2015-11 2016-04 2016-09 2017-02 2017-07 2017-12 2018-05 2018-10 2019-03 2019-08 2020-01 2020-06 2020-11 ( )16 / 21 41 42 Wind Wind 3.2 2010 2010 28% 10% 43 2010 44 Wind Wind 2018 2007 14.3 54.5% 45% 52% 59% 66% 73% 80% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 3.7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) -18% 12% 42% 72% 102% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11 + 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( ) ( ) (17 / 21 2 ( ,%) 2007 2018 9.1 5.8 31.2 4.6 11.4 7.3 63.4 9.4 26.8 17.3 92.5 13.8 45.7 29.4 118.7 17.7 62.6 40.2 365.9 54.5 2018 45 3 Wind 30 45 60 75 90 105 0 80 160 240 320 400 2014-03 2014-11 2015-07 2016-03 2016-11 2017-07 2018-03 2018-11 2019-07 2020-03 2020-11 (BP) (BP) ( ) -18 / 21 46 2018 47 2018 5 Wind Wind 4 1 2005 2016 8.3 2016 17.3% 2013 2 50-55% 2005 12.2% 2016 25.2% 2013 2016 3 2014 2016 2010 2011 1 2017 23 2010 2.8 2017 30 4 2017 2017 5 2017 2017 5 2016 7 9 11 13 15 17 2,000 6,400 10,800 15,200 19,600 24,000 2015-09 2016-03 2016-09 2017-03 2017-09 2018-03 2018-09 2019-03 2019-09 2020-03 2020-09 (%) ( ) ( ) -25 -10 5 20 35 50 65 0 8 16 24 32 40 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%) (%) (19 / 21 6 2018 520 / 21 2017 7 1 R2 C2 C3 C4 C5 C2 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20% outperform 5% 20% Neutral 5% 5% underperform 5% overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 50021 / 21 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 16 100044 1 B 5 710065