传媒互联网行业2021年度投资策略：左手成长性，右手顺周期.pdf
2021 S0790520030004 fangguangzhaokysec S0790120040010 yuqianyingkysec 2020 12 05 1. 2020 A 2020 2021 2. TV + MCN A 3. 2021 4. 5. 1 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 1 2020 12 1 16.60% 28 14 TMT 2020 2020 1 1 2020 12 1 PE TTM 34-62 2020 12 1 PE TTM 39 2020 TMT 28 10 Wind 2020 12 1 2 PE TTM 2020 1 2020 16.60% Wind 2020 12 1 16.60% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1 A 2018 2020 A 2020Q 1 -17.74% 2020Q3 -12.71% Q1 -44.29% Q3 -19.36% Wind 4 3 Wind 2018Q4 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% A -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% A 1 2020 2019 2019Q2 2020Q1 Q3 2020 Q3 2020Q1 Q3 Wind 6 2020 5 2020 Wind 2018Q4 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% -2000% -1500% -1000% -500% 0% 500% 1 2 3 目 录 CONTENTS 4 80% 9% 7% 4% 79% 12% 7% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 2020 2.1 TV 2.1.1 TV TV QuestMobile 2020 TV 12% 2018 3pcts QuestMobile 7 30 50 70 90 110 130 2017 12 2018 2 2018 4 2018 6 2018 8 2018 10 2018 12 2019 2 2019 4 2019 6 2019 8 2019 10 2019 12 2020 2 2020 4 2020 6 QuestMobile 8 2020 TV B 9 2020 2018 3pcts QuestMobile 2.1 TV 10 TV 11 TV 0% 100% 200% 300% 0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0 160.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 TV TV yoy yoy yoy -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 0 20 40 60 80 100 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020H1 TV TV yoy yoy yoy 2.1.1 TV TV TV Z 2017 36% 49% 64% 51% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019H1 2020H1 2.1 TV 12 2020H1 49% 13pcts 2.1.2 + 13 2020Q3 32 32 27 44 39 36 25 26 23 0 10 20 30 40 50 2018Q3 2019Q3 2020Q3 14 2020 1-6 25% , 3% , 4% , 18% , 75% 2.1 15 TV 2020.06 16 TV 2020.06 QuestMobile QuestMobile 27.8% 18.4% 31.0% 72.2% 81.6% 69.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% TV 14.6% 27.5% 36.0% 11.2% 23.5% 34.1% 10.1% 13.4% 3.3% 22.6% 9.9% 5.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% TV 18 19-24 25-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46 TV 2.1.2 + TV UP 2.1 TV 2.1.3 + 1 2 ARPPU 17 90 89.70% 86.10% 90.20% 81.00% 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 20-29 18 2020 1-8 58% 29% 28 20 38 95 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2.1 19 IP+KOL+ 20 B OPPO TV 2.1.3 + TV IP+KOL+ B UP TV + TV 2.1 TV 2.1.4 1 300413.SZ 2020/2021/2022 18.32/21.80/25.66 EPS 1.03/1.22/1.44 PE 66/55/47 6 2 ARPPU PGC 2.1 TV
